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2 ptsCockroachApril 4, 2017 at 5:45 pm #1148
http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=581548
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Cockroach.
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2 ptsCockroachApril 4, 2017 at 9:31 pm #1152Ty for your time Mr2tuff. I also maybe got Spain, but it’s a M3.0 so it’s still under alert for 72hrs. I guess a bigger one can hit but probably not. I got kinda close to the recent 6.5 in Africa,but was to far away from epi-center. Argentina also was on my watch but it may not qualify for within the 100 radius. Again thanks for the look in.
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 15 ptsdsgApril 10, 2017 at 10:24 pm #1198HELLO CR, I just had my first one come through too. I was reading about where you should post your win at, since you were the first one in the forum to to get an alert on target. We are supposed to make the same post you made here, but in this area, so that Mr. Ben can see. I am going to post mine there, but wanted you to know you should post there as well, and congrats on being the first forum member to get an accurate forecast!
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 15 ptsdsgApril 10, 2017 at 10:25 pm #1199Sorry CR: Here is the link: https://quakewatch.net/forums/forum/success/
Score: 02 ptsCockroachApril 11, 2017 at 9:50 am #1206Ty DSG for the info. But I think it consist of a one month membership to post in the section you talking about? Not for sure, but I don’t have pay pal to do transaction. Although really thinking about lifetime membership. This is like a trail and error section I think for the people that really want to get with the program and adapt to the predictions and get use to it before they step up levels that are offered. I did see,I think, the prediction on maybe Tonga region for you as a HIT?
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 15 ptsdsgApril 12, 2017 at 1:30 pm #1220Thanks CR, I’ve been too busy chasing down future EQ and haven’t had time to look at Tonga but will do so. I wanted to compliment you on reminding us all that the radius should be as small as possible, so that we can take the practice model into real-world applications that save lives. You really helped me revisit that thought through your posts, by raising the benchmark.
Yes I want to be a lifetime member and it is in my budget in the coming 30-45 days, would love to see you there as well!
I didn’t realize that you had to have a membership to post there, I just have the basic membership. But I am so proud for you on your hit!
Score: 05 ptsdsgApril 12, 2017 at 2:03 pm #1221CR – a second note – I just double checked on the member-bit and you are right. I would really love to see your big win over there, and even with a small monthly membership you could do it. Also – if you have a credit card or bank debit card, you can interface with the paypal system without having an account, see it here: https://quakewatch.net/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=1 — at the bottom of the screen if you click on the Paypal button, it takes you to the Paypal login page where at the very bottom, it states “Pay with debit or check card” – which lets you process payment as a Paypal guest should it interest you or be applicable to your situation.
Also – checked on Tonga and was super-happy to see the close proximity but was incorrect on magnitude, it was a 4.9 instead of a 5.0. Lesson Learned – Tonga Arc’s enormity swallowed up the potential. Have a good day CR!
Score: 02 ptsCockroachApril 13, 2017 at 4:03 pm #1234Thank you both for the time you 2 put into this service and into the Congratulations of a beginning forecaster.
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What is hard,is the fact that to count a forecast,it has to be 4.5 or greater. We all 3 have hit in the region of our own forecast
But it didn’t count due to magnitude size being to low. I see others predictions being under 4.5 which is under and recognizable status. I hit Spain in a small radius,but it was only a 3.0 Mag. But it hit. To be honest,,if we can predict quakes within a region,it should be on a alert watch regardless of magnitude because one would only think we’re all guessing at magnitude size when it’s not on a fault line,or ring of fire region.115 ptslesterApril 13, 2017 at 8:00 pm #1235CR, I agree with you on principle, but in reality the frequency of 2’s,3’s and 4’s on a daily basis works against you. Predicting an earthquake is one of Earth’s last untamed sciences. The Mercia region in Spain experiences a 3+ every 6 to 8 weeks, the scientific community knows this so your achievement would be view as a high probability of getting one there anyway. If you predicted 3 in a row, or 3 of 5 in the same region, you have something that warrants their attention. I use to do this years ago, and even then I found nobody would give you the time of day for less than a 5. Of course, it doesn’t mean you should be discouraged from tracking down small mag’s, that’s how you home your skills. I know how frustrating it is to have a hit and not be acknowledged, because I have been there!
A tip from an old dog, take pleasure in small mag hits with your family, scientists are only interested in statistics and the dangerous one’s
Lester
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