See post #3005 for Counselorgimber Nov 4th. Link below to screen shots of post that shows forecast of M6.1+ (Red Zone) for a few regions including PNG. PNG was in my red highlighted zone.
~15% of the ring of fire was on red alert, and ~7-8% of the entire world. The M6.1+ constraint with the selected regions gave ~ 3-4% chance of success per day by random.
If this type of success can be repeated it would be considered ‘significant.’