M6.9 SUCCESSFULLY PREDICTED BY SUBC0DER ON 18/04/2017

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subc0der

April 25, 2017 at 1:14 am #1398

Here’s the link to the original prediction. 🙂

Successful Prediction of Chile 6.9 Earthquake Made on April 17th 2017

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HookEcho

April 25, 2017 at 1:38 am #1400

Great job! It appears you all are getting the hang of this. Keep it up 🙂

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Mr2tuff

April 25, 2017 at 12:28 pm #1409

Awesome subc0der. Let’s see if we can get you a shout-out in tomorrow morning’s news.

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lester

April 25, 2017 at 2:37 pm #1410

Good hit SubcOder, I thought you was having a joke on Tayrance… obviously not!

If I am understanding the wording of the contest correctly, this should be reason for a claim… should it not?

Lester

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subc0der

April 25, 2017 at 6:05 pm #1411

Lester,

I would hope so. I have to admit I was kinda raging a little this morning when Tayrance got the shout out and I didn’t. His first 6.0 claim was highly questionable in my opinion and he posts almost everyday too. I sent an email to support, we’ll see what happens. Kinda killed all the fun in this, really not feeling it now. I followed all the rules and tried to be as precise and accurate as I knew how, instead of just spewing out every possible thing I could and hoping for a hit – in the video game industry we call that “spray and pray”. I made the fist legit prediction in my opinion AND I also made it long beforehand, so I’m just gonna be cool with that instead of being mad – anyone else can see what’s up. I vented a bit on YouTube but I promptly deleted it after just a minute or two… all that I take back. I was pretty upset when I watched the news this morning.

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[Tayrance Allen]

Tayrance Allen

April 25, 2017 at 6:34 pm #1412

Hi Subc0der,
There is a competition element to this as far as the prize money goes, but aside from that, the goal is to advance this science somehow.
I don’t post everyday, I have typically set small alert areas for a small window of time. If you look at my correct forecasts you’ll see i don’t even use the the maximum alotted areas. Yesterday, aside from Chile, I had successful hits in Fiji, Japan, Russia and New Zealand. I have over 20 correct forecasts although I’ve only posted about half.
As for the shout out, I totally thought you would get that, didn’t expect it but maybe it was because of my small alert window and coverage area. The goal ultimately is to shorten the alert time window, to shrink the alert areas. You said you predicted this Chile quake a week ago but was the area on alert for a whole week? I saw the signs and set my alert two hours before the quake. No disrespect intended, of course. Just stating my side to this.

• This reply was modified 7 years, 8 months ago by Tayrance Allen.

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subc0der

April 25, 2017 at 7:00 pm #1414

There’s literally dozens of 4-5 magnitude quakes everyday, not exactly sure how predicting these furthers the science but I’ll just take your word on that. What you call being more accurate by calling out short windows of time every other day, I can call a hacky way to get around the 7-day prohibition rule after calling out a specific location. No disrespect taken, and none intended, but I’m still calling out that first 6.0 claim you made as being questionable.

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Management

April 25, 2017 at 7:22 pm #1418

subcoder… I didn’t see your posting since it was a reply. Tayrance did exactly what it said in the guidelines in order for me to notice it – but I have noticed it now. Please have a few more hours patience until tomorrow’s news.

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lester

April 25, 2017 at 8:31 pm #1423

We are all here for different reasons, weather it be competitive, scientific or even a beef with god. In my opinion, you both had a successful outcome. SubcOrder got a hit on the last day of his 7 day forecast, and Tayrance got a hit after 2 hours… the post was there because I saw it before the quake occurred. If there are any discrepancies, it is the responsibility of management to sort them out.

I have put my time in on this subject before, so I’m just here to keep my brain active. An earthquake forum with prize money is a nice touch. But in the interest of scientific advancement, I believe it to be a bad idea. There have been so many 7.5’s forecast for New Zealand in the past month… if I resided there I think I would be taking up permanent residence in a tent by now.

You have to remember, you are involved in a very exclusive subject… your out having a drink with your buddies, they are talking about the game and you start talking about earthquakes… are they going to listen, or put you on the next train out of town ?. This scenario excludes Californian’s of course, more quake talk than football I believe. The point is, forum’s like this are here for people like us, , so we can share the science, get some of these idea’s out of our heads so we can sleep at night, and develop a “bond” with fellow predictors.

Being accurate and precise with this is the right way to go, if your here for the entertainment factor, then predict 50 or 100 locations because when you get one… it is a good feeling. But if you are here to prove your method works, then there is an old saying in prediction circles… throw a hundred darts at a board and one is bound to hit the bull. The number of darts puts the odds in your favour to hit the bull anyway. Throw ten and hit the bull, you may have something worth investigating because it shows skill!

SubcOder, if you don’t mind advice from a burnout like me, I encourage you to keep doing what you are doing, there are thousands of quakes to come, and with each forecast you attempt, you will learn something different. And who knows, maybe sometime in the future you will be sharing a drink with Tayrance… on the same train out of town!. Now if you gentlemen will excuse me, I have a 7.5 to prepare for the Canary Isles!

Lester

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Tayrance Allen

April 25, 2017 at 8:52 pm #1424

SubC0der, no offense taken. You should have, and hopefully will get a shout out.
The 4.0 forecasts are simply a way for me to try to understand what’s going on. When there’s energy building up/ built up, the larger quakes seem to occur. So when there’s less energy, lesser quakes occur. I rather practice with and learn in those lulls.
For the 6.0, what was questionable about it?
I posted it with hopes the management would let me know if its considered a hit or miss, I even stated that in my post.

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subc0der

April 25, 2017 at 9:27 pm #1426

Lester, just a quick correction, I made the forecast on the 17th but the watch period itself (as stated in the original post) was for 4/20-4/27. Thanks for your words. 🙂

Tayrance, I outlined everything about it all already, I also apologized for the way I came off and for anything else unpleasant – let the ball bounce where it may, don’t wanna beat a dead horse. I posted a message about it, I’m sure you’ve read it by now.

Again, thanks and apologies to all, igotmadbro. :/
Won’t happen again.

I really would much rather befriend all of you guys, not do the opposite ya know? I don’t really have anyone else to talk to about this stuff that is really interested in it as much as I am. I’ve been at this since 2011-ish and it’s almost impossible to keep anyone interested for than 10 minutes, which I find completely baffling… Anyways, the last thing I want to do is push you all away. Just wanna move forward…

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[Tayrance Allen]

Tayrance Allen

April 25, 2017 at 9:39 pm #1430

Subc0der- no doubt brother, Im with you. I apologize for any confusion I have caused. We need to work together and Im all for that. You’re right, theres not a lot of people you cant have these conversations with. We do need each other. Much love.

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• This reply was modified 7 years, 8 months ago by Tayrance Allen.

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subc0der

April 25, 2017 at 9:52 pm #1434

Thanks for being understanding. Let’s get some. 🙂

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subc0der

April 25, 2017 at 10:35 pm #1439

I knew there would be significant planetary geometry in April, so I started looking closer at Stereo-A (iSWA) for incoming CH forces. I also use PFSS a lot to try and determine which polarity the force is so I can translate that factor to magnitude. Negative (S-) CH forces are significantly stronger, but we were only seeing N+ forces for quite some time, so I decided to wait until I knew there was a trans-equatorial S- that would relatively coincide with one of the alignments. Also keeping mind that it had been pretty quiet in recent months, therefore more pressure build up in the Earth. The 20th was the first alignment (Sun-Mercury-Earth) with S- influence, so that’s when I started my watch period even though it actually began facing us on the 19th – that was an “uh-oh” moment for me because it came a day earlier than my watch period. The New Moon/Lunar Perigee is to occur on April 26-27 as well, which was to close out my allotted watch period. However, this will occur as the SPF on the earth facing sun will go back to N+, and although N+ forces are weaker, I think there’s something to be said for SPF force changes (the change itself) triggering seismic events – almost like whiplash I guess? There was a small flare or CME (can’t recall) that we were expecting as well, so I factored that into the magnitude since geomagnetic instability seems to fizz out the direct line to CH forces. I had also been following the deep <=100km events above 4.5 in the area and tracing their movements. Also, after a suggestion from Hook Echo, I started looking at deep quakes in the Vanuatu/Fiji area as well, which I’ll continue to do moving forward, cool stuff!
I think that’s it, this all of what went into the forecast.

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Tayrance Allen

April 25, 2017 at 11:26 pm #1442

That’s good work Subc0der, I’m impressed. I’m a novice, but fully impressed.

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subc0der

April 25, 2017 at 11:37 pm #1443

Thanks man, appreciate it. 🙂

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lester

April 26, 2017 at 12:14 am #1445

Subcoder, then you DO understand what it’s like. Talk to friends or family, and they are doing there best to look interested. Approach the scientific community with sun/moon related quake theories, and they would most likely book you into a cheap padded room with a nice view.

There is no denying this is an emotional subject, I don’t really understand your posted material because my method is based on equations, but it’s plain to see how much effort you put into your forecasts. Arguing your point is part of the experience and nothing to be remorseful for, it was adjudicated fairly and you both came out on top.

If your future forecasts turn out to be as impressive as your formula… I think I will have to change my interest to Volcanology LOL

Lester

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subc0der

April 26, 2017 at 12:32 am #1446

Thanks again for the words, Lester.

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lester

April 26, 2017 at 9:36 am #1448

Don’t mention it… apologies for going on a bit, haven’t spoken this much in years.

It’s good to know you both.

Lester

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HookEcho

April 27, 2017 at 3:08 pm #1452

Very wise to include the New Moon as a factor, a five day interval. I cannot wait to join you all and participate in more in discussions in a few weeks. ~Scott

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subc0der

April 27, 2017 at 5:26 pm #1454

Can’t wait for that either, I really liked your input. 🙂

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