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7 pts15 ptsCanyonratMay 27, 2020 at 2:34 am #8934Hello Fred, I am Mark aka Canyonrat, I am new to this forecasting, about two years now, with a few successful forecasts in the under M4.0 range in norther California. So I had barely enough confidence to join the “A-Team” here at quakewatch. I follow the Dutchsinse methodology which I call “observational forecasting” meaning you look at prior activity to forecast the next activity.
I am impressed you add a depth to your forecast! I am noticing many shallow quakes striking in odd places in N. America and E. Russia, over the last few weeks.
I have a forecast about 330 miles do north of your center point.
M 4.0 to 5.0 off shore in the Gulf of Alaska, 2020-05-12 to 2020-05-19
Current modified forecast:
M 4.6 to 5.6 off shore in the Gulf of Alaska, 2020-05-23 to 2020-05-30, 58°40’34.90″N 141° 1’14.32″W 320km/200mls radius.
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7 ptsNomadicFredMay 27, 2020 at 11:33 am #8936Hello Canyonrat,
I dont usually hang out in the North American Side, i like South American Pacific Coast, but i saw the OLR flip and the Low sitting there all nice and pretty and tossed my hat in.
As far as depth its on there from the start, i think that was part of the original hey guys post them like this from Ben when the site/forum went up. I think that was there also because when you look at reports from USGS those values are there as well.
I would like to work on a way to create a ideal depth routine but aside from a range created around the mean of quakes that are above 6.0M , im stuck on that one…
I want to improve the location so i am not tossing out 200 and 300km circles, one idea i had was to use the frequency of past events with the geomorphology/ landform types of the area. but my guess that is not all that great because the landforms change not only as you pan with google earth but also on that cool z-axis going down.
Magnitude for me is going to be 6.0 and up, i am trying to work a combination of the following
ENLIL Spiral | Magnetic Sector Boundaries and CME Events
KP Index
Historical FrequencySo for the “when” i use
[Blue] Polar Angle (Phi) of the Magnetic Field (when it says hello to 180ish)
Part of my timeframe also relates to the Moon Sun Locations as well https://www.timeanddate.com/astronomy/moon/light.html
OLR shows itself for both location and when in my routine.
and the pressure cells from Windy- https://www.windy.com/ (pressure and wind)So by trade I am a GIS Analyst , but i am in cleveland ohio so there is not much of that around here especially as i dont have my Masters in either public administration or project management done. I really enjoy looking at imagery and creating different layers or using ones that are outthere that i can source correctly, i enjoy working on things that are cause and effect, pattern recognition and toss in maps and google earth , its a good thing
Feel free to ask questions, I am not a scientist per say and i dont understand all the dynamics of each of the tools i use, so im kinda like this in a machine shop as well, i know when you want to use a pressbrake verse a vice, and when to use a pair of calipers verse a height gauge, but the why sometimes for me is not know, just that it works and the limits the item/tool has
Take care and good luck,
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Fred15 ptsCanyonratMay 27, 2020 at 5:09 pm #8939Fred,
Thank you so much for taking the time to explain your methodology. I ordered Ben’s new book and will start on the earthquake chapter strait away. I think it is a good idea to focus on a region and “get to know it”. I have observed with North America and the pan handle of Alaska and not including the rest of Alaska, is that quakes occur slowly, and even stall for a week before striking, and are always weaker then my calculations indicate. There is also some “guessing” work involved. Fore example, in mid-March I posted that we need to be on watch for larger unexpected quakes east of the west coast; then came Salt Lake City 5.7 3-18, Texas 5.0 on 3-26, Carsin City Nevada 4.5 on 3-21, and Idaho 6.8 on 3-31, then I could see the energy but missed the forecast of the California/Nevada border 4.5 on 4-11 because my radius was 30 miles and it struck 50 miles away, I was certain it was gonna strike really close to my center point.
“On Going General Watch: Issued March 4 2020, continues to be for larger seismic activity pushing east across the North American plate from the Pacific Plate in motion and pushing into it. I continue to maintain that unexpected larger activity will continue until California seismically quiets down. But know we have points to forecast from instead of being blind-sided.” – From my facebook page just before I switched documenting my forecasts over to here on quakewatch.
And now the week of May 25, 2020, I am observing a truly massive amount of quakes going off in the USA, but all under M 3.0. It is scary to look at. But it could mean the big energy has passed and things are settling down. Now I am watching for all of the M 4.5+ energy to stop for a while, a month or so…even knowing June could be a very seismically active period as 7 planets get bunched together and Earth sits in the middle of it all. But that forecasting of no quakes is also an important endeavor. Should we all figure out a a system or systems to forecast and get reliable enough, large construction projects could be scheduled to take advantage of calm. And we need to provide useful forecasts so people and emergency services can know when to schedule extra staff. My joke is forecasting an m8+ quake with a 500km radius is not useful beyond honing one’s forecasting skills because if it strikes in LA it won’t effect the Bay area and northward. You can’t have a whole state go on alert, no leader would take action on such a broad forecast. And for now, it is useful to make such forecasts as we all learn to be better at it.
Mark
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7 ptsNomadicFredMay 27, 2020 at 5:29 pm #8941Yeah it would be nice to have an actionable ability, that said, it might be better to just limit or learn to build better. cant imagine evacuating millions and millions of people will occur without a hitch or problem.
Is there a way to tell the difference between a magma flow/density changes causing small events or staging before an eruption verse, the regular events… and the swarm i see in Nevada, i keep thinking a magma flow filling up a void or changing locations… that said, with the water vortex clip in the news today, i then think back to Billy’s lab and want to think of Olivine on the move…
thankfully i dont live in that area, cause if its either, its not all that great, if its just like a pressure cooker and that is where it is letting out steam , thats better than the other two thoughts..
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