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6 ptsJECJune 19, 2020 at 7:47 pm #9031
vox 28-31 N, `100-104 east. Note this is China. Reasons animal behaviors (fish jumping), previous eq which could be foreshocks, and low pressure going over the areas. Expect event when the planet geometry and solar flares aline, mid to end of week, June 23-27th, 2020. Mag 6 plus earthquake
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 16 pts115 ptslesterJune 25, 2020 at 11:00 pm #9095M 6.4 Southeast of Hotan, China…
There are a few mountains between your forecast coordinates and the epicentre, but you are the only member predicting China… and you provided informative reasons for your chosen location.
Duly noted with fellow forecasters !!
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJune 26, 2020 at 2:39 am #9097Dam, the damn could be in dam distress over deluge pushing on the dam damn… “I just like saying all the “D” words.” LOL
JEC, you bringing awareness to all of us of the situation with the Three Gorges Dam is note worthy and I have given you karma points for that. Thank you for that. There is still time in your forecast. You are, as Lester points out, the only one looking in this greater general area. Thumbs up for that. Should the horrible and terrible event of the dam failure occur and with the observed 6.4 quake, and you being in the middle, it could be considered a success.???
I first hope you are totally wrong for the people. And I hope you are totally correct for us forecasters.
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratJune 26, 2020 at 3:01 am #9100and this photo of distorted dam. I do not know if this is good or bad.
https://img.theepochtimes.com/assets/uploads/2019/07/08/Three-Gorges-Dam-20092018.jpg
Score: 06 ptsJECJune 26, 2020 at 10:53 am #9102Thank you all for your kind words! On the Three Gorges DAm, June 27th..very major weather system, HEAVY water flow/flooding, and the dam is fully releasing all water already, as are all the other dams. Just look at the floods–ans monsoon season is not there yet. Can dam releases keep up? This is a large amount of water/pressure, and this dam has already caused a minor shift of the earths rotation..its that big.
Score: 0
Also a similar dam issue(and possible dam cause for earthquake) could be cause in Africa due to another dam built to HUGE scale (China the dam building company). See June 24th earthquake Ghana, and this is the start of their monsoons season too. Big is not always better. I am starting to use things like dams and fracking as part of the decision process.115 ptslesterJune 26, 2020 at 4:14 pm #9104Hey JEC,
We seem to keep connecting on similar themes… Hawaii, Iceland etc. I also took an interest in the M 4.0 event in Ghana on 24th June. Earthquakes in this region of Southwest Africa are “very rare”, and my vested interest lies with a friend living in a neighbouring country. I noted how close the event occurred to the Weija dam complex, and there is info online relating to the concerns of local residents. However, not wanting to change focus from your more “realistic” theory, I inevitably came up with an alternative theory of my own… this kind of thing happens on prediction sites lol. I also endorse your idea to include dams and fracking in your decision process, for reasons I will explain later. When a rare event like the one in Ghana occurs, I investigate the epicentre location via the sun / moon thresholds (sunrise / sunset etc). I call it a T sequence run, basically checking threshold history against post seismic or volcanic locations. In this case, this is what I found…
On 24th June at 22:53:52 UTC, the M 4.0 event occurred in Ghana on coordinates 00’20’W – 5’37’N. At this time, the RLT ( Rising Lunar Threshold) was located on coordinates 141’09’E – 35’27’N. This is the location of the post seismic M 5.9 South of Honshu, Japan epicentre… which occurred 3 hours earlier at 19:47:44 UTC.
On 24th June at 04:31 UTC, the ATB threshold (Astronomical Twilight Begins) was located on the Ghana epicentre… and it was Moonrise on coordinates 44’01’E – 38’33’N. This is the location of the pre seismic M 5.4 Turkey-Iran border event, which occurred 5.5 hours later at 10;03:31 UTC. It is also noteworthy to mention that the moon was located on longitude 151’52’E at 04:31 UTC. On 23rd June at 15:29:55 UTC, an M 5.0 event occurred in New Britain P.N.G on longitude 151’55’E. Time of 04:31 UTC is of particular interest to me, because it also corresponds with the ATE threshold (Astronomical Twilight Ends) on my Baja, California forecast. ACE recorded another significant aspect change at this time on 25th June. It compounds the issue because it may also represent further activity in Ghana !
On 24th June at 19:34 UTC, the ATE threshold was located on the Ghana epicentre… and the ATE threshold was also located on coordinates 27’48’E – 38’47’N. This is the pre seismic location of the M 5.2 Western Turkey event of 26th June at 07:21:12 UTC.
On 24th June at 21:24 UTC (90 minutes before event) it was Moonset on the Ghana epicentre… the ATB threshold was located on coordinates 82’27’E – 35’37’N, location of the pre seismic M 6.4 Hotan, China epicentre of 25th June at 21:05:18 UTC… the SLT (setting Lunar Threshold) was located on Mt Etna and Mt Stromboli volcanoes in Italy… and the SLT was also on my Dam South Sandwich Islands forecast !
This analysis represents several significant correlations from the T sequence run. In my opinion, this region will be at a greater threat level if an event occurs in Baja. Many of my calculations show opposite correlation events do occur, shortly after a primary event… primary event could be either location !
Relating back to your decision process; On 26th August 2019, an M 2.9 event occurred at a fracking site in Preston, England. I did some calculations on this event, and concluded seismic activity would occur on the Kashmir-India border, because the T sequence showed an opposite threshold correlation… hence I posted a forecast accordingly. On 8th Sept at 02:34:32 UTC, an M 4.7 event occurred in this region. Less than 48 hours later, an M 4.9 event occurred in the same region on 9th Sept at 06:40:31 UTC. This 4.9 event was the largest magnitude event to occur here since an M 5.0 event occurred in August 2011. And EMSC records show that as of 2005 (start point of records) no two events have occurred in this region within 48 hours of each other. My forecast failed because I predicted mag 5 or above. But if you want to troll back through the forum records, you will see my Kashmir forecast “with reference” to the 2.9 Preston fracking event included. Fracking in the UK was halted after this event due to public pressure, but I always ask myself the question; if this event was man made, how did I get so close to a rare double hit in Kashmir ?
Hope you don’t mind this contribution, because it took a long “dam” time to compile… 🙂
Conformation of my analysis can be found using…
http://www.sunrisesunsetmap.com
Score: 0115 pts6 ptsJECJune 28, 2020 at 12:17 am #9122Getting to the end of the prediction window, but the flood waters must be impacting the area. Three Gorges Dam releaseing water to prevent dam collapse..has flooded at least one large city today June 27th. Then the next window for quakes in area should be July 1 -4th. https://staygate.blogspot.com/2020/06/three-gorges-dam-flooding-yichang-city.html
Lester and Canyonrat..thanks you for your toughtful comments.
Score: 0115 ptslesterJune 28, 2020 at 1:13 am #9124I formulated a forecast for the Andaman Islands region, based on the M 4.0 Ghana event. Methodology employed is similar to my M 2.9 Preston fracking analysis. Theory goes that if an event occurs in the Andaman Island region, within an acceptable time period… it may indicate that the Ghana event was part of a seismic cycle. If nothing happens, then the Ghana even was correctly assessed by you, as being related to water volume within the reservoir… but this is just an experiment, and “not” to be taken seriously !
Good talking with you too buddy !
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJune 28, 2020 at 5:32 pm #9128JEC,
A quick observational forecast based on the greater area of quakes indicates that a 4.5 to 5.5 could strike in the next 7 days from today here 30° 0’45.13″N 99°40’15.10″E. There is history of quakes going off on this ancient looking “possibly” old very weathered volcano. Disclaimer – I don’t forecast this area.
So my technique could be used as another point of data for your forecast.
Mark
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