Successful Prediction

[Karma: 19 pts]

BeccasArt

July 23, 2021 at 11:17 pm #10782

On my most recent forecast list, posted on 7.21.21, I again have S. Philippines / N and Central Indonesia marked for Red alert M6.5 – M7.5,
At 2:47 PST, an M6.7 hit south of Hukay, Philippines, so I’m now submitting as a successful prediction.

All the best, forecast team,
– Rebecca

Score: 0

[Karma: 115 pts]

lester

July 24, 2021 at 5:08 pm #10783

Mmmm… proclamation from an “experienced” forecaster !

We once had someone here that produced the most beautiful colored forecast maps I had ever seen, complete with national flags and “defined” forecast areas. It portrayed someone with a true passion for this subject, and pride in what they were preparing for submission.

If this proclamation is submitted on an “entertainment” basis, then I offer congrats, and apologies from an old seismic soldier. If Not, then I would like to know when this person is coming back… because I liked her !

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[Karma: 19 pts]

BeccasArt

July 24, 2021 at 10:15 pm #10785

Aw haha, that comment got me Lester! I use an app called Photo Marker to do my maps with a fault map photo I borrowed from the web. I’ll see what I can do to satisfy your longing to see them 😜. But hey, where’s your maps, ..hmmm?
Warm regards,
Rebecca 💖

Score: 0

[Karma: 19 pts]

BeccasArt

July 25, 2021 at 11:53 am #10786

BTW, Lester, I meant to write that I don’t do these forecasts for entertainment purposes. I checked the timestamp on the map photo – 3:28pm on the 21st – at which time it was saved to my pic gallery. (though it doesn’t have the orange on PNG because I forgot to put it there before saving).

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[Karma: 115 pts]

lester

July 25, 2021 at 4:11 pm #10787

Ah !… that puts things into perspective 🙂

I don’t use maps because I post location coordinates, and a “margin of error”. This margin extends a radial distance (currently 300 km’s) from the forecast center point… similar to a circle like Tayrence uses. I also had a forecast in South Philippines, but I could not lay claim to the M 6.7 event in North Philippines, because I had posted a “margin of error” that didn’t extend this far North.

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[Karma: 19 pts]

BeccasArt

July 28, 2021 at 11:37 am #10792

I looked real closely. I assure you and assert confidently that the top edge of my mark is on just barely over the Philippines quake epicenter. Any lower with my finger mark, and it would have missed…

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[Karma: 19 pts]

BeccasArt

July 28, 2021 at 11:42 am #10793

It hit in the southern edge, where south meets north.

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[Karma: 115 pts]

lester

July 29, 2021 at 3:38 pm #10800

Hey Becca, don’t get stressed… I am not here to be judgmental of fellow forecasters. Its just that Your post time here gives you status as an “experienced” forecaster. So I was a little confused why you would be stooping to newbie status, to claim a hit in North Philippines, when your forecast description clearly stated South. And in your last post, you have now pointed out that your “mark” is in contact with the epicentre… what mark ?

This indicates that you must have posted a map somewhere… but not here. Therefore, you can appreciate why I would come to this conclusion based only on words !

it is a given fact that there is no set forecast mandate here. So it is up to individuals whether they want to push the limits beyond acceptable forecast protocols. Tayrence and I are the only veterans that continue to practice our skills here on a regular basis. We had good times once, but now we are just passing ships in the night. But apart from our differences, we both work to a set prediction standard… and try to lead by example. I missed a M 6.0 in the Bismarck Sea by 27 km’s last week. Am I being a fool to myself for not claiming this… or am I trying to be professional ?

I am not a mediator, so the choice is your what you wish to claim, or not. You know I have tried to help you in the past, so please regard this as more of the same… 🙂

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