T.ALLEN: May 13th, 2019 Japan/Russia ALERT @00:45 UTC TIME

[Karma: 14 pts]

Tayrance Allen

May 14, 2019 at 12:46 am #6013

Alert window: 5/13/19 @ 00:45 UTC time until 5/20/19 18:30UTC time:

Highest alert regions:
-Southern Japan: set for potential 6.2 – 9.3
-Russia: 6.0 – 9.0
-Alaska: set for potential 6.2 – 9.2

All other red regions:
-Peru: set for potential 6.0 – 8.2
-South Atlantic: 6.0 – 7.5
-Indian Arctic Ridge: set for potential 6.0 – 8.5
-Fiji: 6.0 – 7.4

Yellow regions:
-South of Iceland: 4.3 – 5.7
-Papua New Guinea: monitoring for blot echo activity, anticipated smaller rumbles projected to be 4.0 – 6.0 at depths of >80-100km
-Northern Mid Atlantic ridge: 4.0 – 5.9
-Northern California region: 3.7 – 4.7

Posts below show maps only. All detailed info is posted here on Quake Watch.net

pic.twitter.com/TlCFUfsuRq

— Tayrance Allen (@Twigganomics) May 14, 2019

pic.twitter.com/aCwjoRqB1X

— Tayrance Allen (@Twigganomics) May 14, 2019

Score: 0

[Karma: 14 pts]

Tayrance Allen

May 20, 2019 at 7:30 pm #6020

Alert extended on 5/20/19 @ 19:30 UTC Time until 5/25/19 18:45 UTC Time

Score: 0

[Karma: 14 pts]

Tayrance Allen

May 25, 2019 at 6:31 pm #6029

Alert extended on 5/25/19 @ 18:30 UTC Time until 5/29/19 18:45 UTC Time

Score: 0

[Karma: 29 pts]

Ben Davidson "S0"

May 26, 2019 at 5:04 pm #6036

I have good news and I have bad news.

This is definitely a statistical hit. The total region on alert represents ~12% of the ring of fire, and that makes this result significant at a high level. The fact that TA has already nailed the forecasting content twice, this third ‘excess magnitude’ event makes for NO QUESTION ABOUT IT… this guy can predict earthquakes.

Bad news. #3 on the contest page:
“3) The magnitude range of the forecast must include M7.5 or higher, and must not go below M6.5.
Magnitude Range Examples: (M6.5 – M7.5 : OK!) (M6.4 – M8.0 : Not OK, minimum range failure) (M7+ : OK!) (M6+ : Not OK, minimum range failure) (M7.1 – M7.4 : Not OK, threshold magnitude failure)” – The video on that page explains that to win the $ the magnitude range must not be more than 1.0 magnitude.
— The range for Peru was 6.0 – 8.2, which is a magnitude range of 2.2. This is heartbreaking, I feel it, but at least it does not change the fact that TA is a beast at predicting earthquakes.

Score: 0

[Karma: 14 pts]

Tayrance Allen

May 26, 2019 at 6:11 pm #6037

Hi Ben – thank you. I understand. I will make the proper adjustments.
I opened my magnitude window up for larger events in this early part of the year. Thank you for the compliment, I learned from the be(a)st

Score: 0

[Karma: 115 pts]

lester

May 26, 2019 at 8:28 pm #6038

I totally agree with Ben… nice work Tayrance.

I had a feeling something “BIG” was coming, not posted for a while but chose a few targets just in case… Peru would have been my next choice 🙂

Bravo !

This post has received 1 vote up.

Score: 1

[Karma: 14 pts]

Tayrance Allen

May 27, 2019 at 9:10 pm #6046

This alert is suspended as of 5/27/19 @ 20:20 UTC Time, a new alert has been submitted.

Score: 0