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15 ptsCanyonratJuly 1, 2020 at 2:39 am #9158
Observed: M 5.1 SABAH, MALAYSIA time 2020-06-30 01:58:30.5 UTC 6.94 N 116.40 E Depth 628 km
source: https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=872523
Along a ring set out 1600km/1000mls from the quake, there should be 6+ activity at active quake areas or other weak spots. I am not talking a radius but the ring of a radius and in and out from that ring. Actually “ring Hypothesis”. Remember add magnitudes because of depth. So at 600km depth add 1.2 to the magnitude of 5.1 and quakes should strike in the 6.3 rang of 5.8 to 6.7.
My guess is a 5.8 to 6.7 should strike north and off shore from Banggai, Central Sulawesi, Indonesia next 7 days. Could cause a tsunami. A volcano in this area erupting BIG would also be the energy one would be looking for.
But I do not forecast this area, too complex for me.
This is an important quake.
Score: 06 ptsJECJuly 1, 2020 at 1:00 pm #9164Look up by the Alaska volcanos/Aleutions..warning levels were dropped..because the volcano was not the cause of the eqarthquakes, they are 10 miles the volcano in question, in waters offshore, area is near Dutch Harbor , 3 and 3.8 on june 28th. Goes with the ‘ring theory” not my area either.
Score: 0115 ptslesterJuly 1, 2020 at 11:16 pm #9166It is indeed a “very rare” event that only occurs in this region about once or twice a year. So rare in fact that USGS has not even bothered to list this one. I think this is an oversight on their part, as previous events can be found in the archives. A Very important quake depends on what is meant by “important” ?.
The last 5+ event to occur here was an M 5.2 on 8th March 2018, so this confirms rarity. An M 6.8 event occurred in New Ireland P.N.G on this day, and an M 6.6 event occurred in the Banda Sea on 25th March 2018… approx 300 miles outside your stated circle. On 4th June 2015, an M 6.0 occurred in Sabah, Malaysia at 23:15:43 UTC, On 3rd July 2015, an M 6.1 event occurred in the Philippine Islands region… approx 300 miles inside your stated circle. These events correlate on these occasions, but how many 6+ events have occurred in the Banda Sea and Philippine Islands, in comparison to number of 5+ events in Sabah, Malaysia ?
How did you calculate the exact radius of your circle to 1,600 km’s – 1,000 miles ?… I tried it on 151’E New Britain and the ring made contact with the Santa Cruz Islands. I tried it on the M 5.1 Port-Olry, Vanuatu epicentre of today (somewhere I am recently familiar with !), and the ring made contact with Bougainville Island. When I placed it on the M 7.4 Oaxaca epicentre… the ring made contact with longitude 108’W South end of Gulf of California 🙂
I followed your instructions again, you said you “GUESS” something should strike North and offshore from Banggai, Central Sulawesi… a very “defined” assessment for a guess !. How do I get to the same location determination using your ring ? Has this hypothesis worked somewhere else ? because you seem to be unsure of a positive outcome from Sabah… you state this area is to “complex” for you to forecast. Earthquakes are a “global” phenomena, a hypothesis related to pre seismic detection must be able to be employed at any region on earth. If a hypothesis works in California, but doesn’t work in Indonesia… it does not have the necessary requirements to be called a “Seismic hypothesis”. A BIG eruption… there are several active volcanoes within the regions of your stated circle… the closest ones to Banggai are Mt Soputan and Mt Lokon-Empung in the North Sulawesi region. They are currently classed as restless, but if a significant eruption did occur from one of these volcanoes, and an event occurred North of Banggai… how do you prove one is influencing the other ?
Could cause a tsunami… any Sea quake or events in coastal regions “could” cause a tsunami. A statement used by others to make their predictions sound more impressive than they actually are…don’t fall into the same category !
I conducted a short related T sequence involving the Sabah event, covering periods 29th – 30th June… it reads as follows.
On 30th June at 01:58:30 UTC, an M 5.1 event occurred in Sabah, Malaysia on coordinates 116’6’56’N. At this time, the RLT was located on coordinates 169’11’E – 19’24’S. An M 5.1 event occurred South of Isangel, Vanuatu on these coordinates some time later at 22:10:09 UTC. At 12 hours earlier 10:10:09 UTC, it was sunset on Bali Island, Indonesia. Continuing with the Sabah event time of 01:58:30 UTC, the moon was located on longitude 151’18’E New Britain P.N.G… you recall I mentioned this location previously, New Britain is building up for more activity !. At “12 hours earlier 13:58:30 UTC 29th June, it was Moonset on coordinates 168’20’E – 17’17’S Port-Vila, Vanuatu (my forecast location).
On 29th June at 19:40:13 UTC, an M 5.6 event occurred in the Ascension Islands region on coordinates 13’25’W – 11’39’S. At “12 hours earlier 07:40:13 UTC, the moon and ATE threshold combined on coordinates 168’20’E – 17’17’S Port-Vila, Vanuatu. As two 5+ events have occurred North and South of this location, I am “speculating” that a greater magnitude event may occur on or near these coordinates.
On 29th June at 04:17:59 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 116’24’E, therefore Solar Noon on the Sabah epicentre… and it was Moonrise on the post seismic M 6.6 Naze, Japan epicentre of 13th June. At 05:05 UTC, it was Moonrise on the Sabah epicentre… and Moonrise on Bali Island, Indonesia. At 10:34 UTC, it was Sunset on the Sabah epicentre… Sunset on Mt Merapi volcano in Central Java Indonesia… and the ATB threshold was located on the post seismic M 7.4 Oaxaca, Mexico epicentre of 23rd June.
My method is a “true” observational hypothesis, and it is not possible to alter or cherry pick the data to make it more favourable. I do not add my own scientific assumptions to explain why these correlations are happening. Nor do I include references to depth, or calculations related to magnitude scales. It is not a question of gauging magnitude, gauging depth, or even determining weather a tsunami may occur as a result. The point of a seismic hypothesis first and foremost, is to determine “where an earthquake is going to occur”. I do not make up the event times, or what time it is going to be sunrise or sunset on a particular day. The data I post can easily be checked by anyone with the online tools I describe, and they would get the exact same results. It is individual decision based on the “facts”, not “assumptions” weather they believe these correlations amount to determining pre seismic locations !
You have put forward your Ring Theory, and “guessed” where a seismic event may occur. I simply deducted “12 hours” from the Ascension Islands event time… and got two hits in Vanuatu ! Both Sabah and Vanuatu correlate to Bali Island, and one of those pesky 1.4 Croatian events occurred today (1st July) at 11:26:50 UTC, felt by 161 people. The ATE threshold was located on Bali Island at this time. Even the lowest of events can lead you in the right direction.
It is understandable why collaboration is never really possible between seismic predictors. We are indoctrinated into different methods from day one. And no matter what anybody says, we will not deviate from our own belief that we alone are on the right path to finding an answer. I asked you questions… can you answer them ? If you can, it is a step forward to the possibility of being open minded, and collaborating. My example is above… would you like to test my theory and ask “me” questions ?
Like before, I am testing your theory… and no offence is intended. Each theory weather it be right or wrong, always provides experience, different elements, and an occasional point that may have been overlooked before. Kamchatka for example may be a slim outsider, but if an event occurs, success will be because I collaborated and combined my theory with your “last ring theory” to determine location… otherwise I would probably not have been looking in this region !
If for no other reason… you are keeping me busy 🙂
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJuly 2, 2020 at 6:26 am #9170Lester, I will follow your methodology in a few days. Just super busy right now. I think this is an important quake and should cause the start of other quakes that spread out. I actually was reviewing my ring for this…it might be a bit too small. I noticed when I pushed it out further, it overlays the arc of historical quakes west of Sumatra and south of Java. I do find that interesting. Again it is the depth of this quake that is the key component.
So this is an experience I had many years ago, before I thought twice about quakes. We were walking on a floating dock 200 or 300 feet long made of of many 20 foot long sections chained together. A boat passed by at a high rate of speed and created a 2 foot wave. The dock lifted with the wave. I noticed that at the joints between the 20 foot sections, only in one joint did any splash of water squirt up (about 5 feet high). Move to two years ago when I am watching Dutch talk about waves of energy under the crust, and when it rolls under a weak point it causes a quake. But it is not a circular wave like a rock dropped in a pool. It some how focuses and follows plate boundarys. I have observed this pattern. And I have watched quakes go off with really no observable cause. So my thinking is two waves or more, of large size intersect and cause extra “pressure?” and a quake pops off. It reminds me of the wave tanks when they set multiple waves off and then these “squirts” pop up here and there. I am thinking very large waves likely hundreds of miles in size. I don’t think we humans have any way to observe them right now. And it is possible that there is some data being collected that if we found and bastardized (LOL) could use it totally differently to maybe see such wave activity 600km and deeper in the earth at semi-close to real time.
AND then there is my South of Japan deep quake idea. Energy starts there, rolls east for some reason, some how gets to the Hawaiian volcanic chain, then moves into one of those 4 large cracks on the bottom of the Pacific that all ending on the west coast North America. And this could explain all these large quakes that happened over the last 3 months in North America. All unexpected and larger in size (5+). I posted “help” 2 weeks before they started, was close forecasting when the 4th struck.
I am thinking less math, more observation. I carpentry there is a saying (which I have found to be true), “your best carpentry does not involve the tape measure.” You place the wood next to where it goes, make a mark on it, cut and install and it is perfect. Then another aspect is building to the plans/blue prints and realizing a door needs to be moved inches over because it is the better place for it. It is a difficult thing to describe, and I do this type of carpentry regularly.
I think I am doing something like this with seismic energy. And trust me when I say, I invest money without emotion, ride my motorcycle by being aware of my instruments (kept me alive and unijured for 26 years of riding high speeds). I do consider my thinking as structured not “airy fairy” LOL.
Score: 0115 ptslesterJuly 2, 2020 at 1:55 pm #9173Okay my friend, no more sermons… don’t want you coming home from work, dreading what I have been preaching next. I have to give you credit though, your patience is very enduring lol. I do like your ideas, and believe they can be better used to try and determine time of event, rather than actual location… but something we can experiment with when you get time.
I never got into motorcycles myself, but being raised on a farm, at age 10 I use to drive myself to school on a farm tractor… thus started my early working life in Agriculture.
Easy Rider & The Bumpkin… 🙂
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJuly 2, 2020 at 3:09 pm #9174Good morning from California Lester,
I just watched Ben’s morning news. He talks about a new lithosphere map. It does support my idea that quakes roll under the pacific plate and when the reach North America the must hit a thicker area of the plate (meaning the plate goes deeper down) and we have “unexpected” larger quakes. At the Rocky Mountain Range in the middle of the USA this map clearly shows a thickening of the N. American plate. Fun stuff, now I need to go find a super high-res of this new map!
This weekend I’m going to follow all your steps from above. I have all those sites booked marked.
Mark
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJuly 2, 2020 at 3:12 pm #9175One link I just found: http://spaceref.com/earth/geologists-identify-deep-earth-structures-that-may-signal-hidden-metal-lodes.html
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratJuly 2, 2020 at 3:45 pm #9177Highest resolution I can find at this time: https://scx2.b-cdn.net/gfx/news/hires/2020/geologistsid.jpg
Score: 015 pts115 pts115 ptslesterJuly 7, 2020 at 5:50 pm #9219Mark,
I ran a T sequence from 30th June for the M 6.6 Java Sea event…
On 30th June at 11:50 UTC, the ATE threshold was located on the pre seismic M 6.6 Java Sea epicentre on coordinates 110’40’E – 5’37’S. Also at this time, the ATE threshold was located on the post seismic M 5.1 Sabah, Malaysia epicentre of 01:58:30 UTC 30th June, on coordinates 116’24’E – 6’56’N. This ATE correlation began on 29th June, and continues until 14th July… USGS archive still does not list the Sabah event as occurring !!
On 3rd July at 23:50 UTC (12 hour window !), it was moonrise on the post seismic M 7.4 Oaxaca, Mexico epicentre of 23rd June on coordinates 95’54’W – 16’00’N.
On 2nd July at 21:30 UTC, the ATE threshold was located on the post seismic M 7.4 Oaxaca, Mexico epicentre. At “12 hours” earlier 09:30 UTC, it was moonset on the post seismic M 7.4 Oaxaca, Mexico epicentre.
On 6th July at 10:36 UTC, it was sunset on the pre seismic M 6.6 Java Sea epicentre, and the ATB threshold was located on the post seismic M 7.4 Oaxaca, Mexico epicentre… Java Sea event occurred 12 hours, 18 minutes later at 22:54:46 UTC.
My model contains all 6+ epicentres from 1st June, the M 7.4 Oaxaca, Mexico epicentre was the only one to correlate with this event during this period. At “12 hours” earlier 10:54:46 UTC. the RLT was located on the pre seismic M 5.6 Izu Islands epicentre, and it was one minute past moonrise on Mt Ebeko volcano in the Northern Kuril Islands. If I had to “guess” an influential pre seismic location “12 hours” prior to this event occurring. I would suggest the same region as the M 5.9 event of 24th June, Southeast of Honshu, Japan… it was moonrise here at this time !
It seems this was a “very important quake” after all… 🙂
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