-
15 ptsCanyonratJune 15, 2020 at 4:59 pm #9018
This is part of my working hypothesis. Large deep quakes strike off shore south of Japan, then roll under the Pacific Plate and under the North American Plate Boundary AKA San Andreas Fault and strike inland about 400km/250mls and 10 days after observed quake.
BUT where will such damn quakes strike?
Watch (not a forecast): M5.9 to M7.2 2020-06-20 to 2020-06-30. Watch areas: all of Nevada and Arizona, Colorado to the east edge of the Rocky Mountains, New Mexico to the east edge of the Rocky Mountains, and tiny western tip of Texas.
My “hunch” is it will come in around M 6.7 south of Latitude 40 and in central Nevada, east of the swarm of quakes currently rumbling and near the highways of ( US 6 and State Route 375 ) 375 is also known as Extraterrestrial Highway. 🙂 Just a “good old” unscientific “hunch” and maybe a UFO will zoom by to observe said quake.
The observed quake might be too far south and the wave energy might not roll east, but I do want to watch and learn. Thus this is not a forecast.
Observed: M 6.2 – 416 km N of Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands 2020-06-13 21:08:30 (UTC) 18.923°N 145.103°E 622.0 km depth
Note the depth! Using the depth to magnitude chart that adds 1.2 (each 100km depth adds .1 magnitude) making the 6.2 a 7.4. And at 6.2 alone it stands as a larger quake for this region. So I am aware if said energy rolls in, it could be very strong, thus M7.2 high end.
Score: 015 pts115 pts115 ptslesterJune 25, 2020 at 12:50 am #9090Mark,
I believe you deserve some recognition here, because your working hypothesis has produced a result on this occasion… namely the M 5.8 Lone Pine event of 24th June. It occurred between 20th – 30th June in Southwest USA as you unofficially predicted.
So credit where credit is due, and I am a little less sceptical today… about 3% less 🙂
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJune 25, 2020 at 5:32 am #9091Thank you Lester.
This 5.8 is slightly out of the area, meaning it is west of the California and Nevada boarder. It also struck in an active area, and therefore not “unexpected”. BUT my “hunch” was it would be east of the swarm of quakes currently rumbling and near the highways of ( US 6 and State Route 375 ). This quake is part of that long curve of quakes that started in Ridge Crest and then meandered north and then turned east into Nevada. So I am kind of waiting for another advancement eastward. This 5.8 could be a for shock to an unexpected quake further east. The 7.4 could also possibly be the unexpected quake but I think it is from the other 7.4 a few days back. However, the Caribbean Islands should become very active during the next 2 weeks from this 7.4.
A quick observational forecast indicates quake activity should occur in Colorado or New Mexico, likely near the boarder between them, in the next 10 days between a 4.4 and a 5.4.
Possibly a 5.5 to 6.5 in the center of the Gulf of California / Cortez Sea 28°33’37.43″N 112°36’51.80″W next 10 days.
I will make a full official forecast in the next day or two when I have time.
I am still watching for an unexpected 5.8+ in the next few days.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJune 28, 2020 at 6:24 pm #9130Lester, I have re-reviewed that 5.8 Lone Pine quake. Hmmm, seems it could be “unexpected”. That tiny area has been very quiet this last year, and now with the 5.8 and 580 quakes in the last 4 or 5 days, all under this lake? So with this whole hot mess of quakes the lake area adds up to around 6.4+. What is really interesting, during the prior year a total of 58 quakes have occurred under this lake with the strongest a M 2.95. Of those 58 “about” 15 or less occurred before June of 2020. Disclaimer I’m not going to do an exact count of tiny tiny quakes, so the scientific data of “there about’s” shall stand. LOL
And my watch is still on a few more days.
And something else is going on in North America. We have about 6 areas swarming for months now. The Idaho Yellow Stone area always has quakes, but the number of quakes has notably increased.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJune 30, 2020 at 3:09 pm #9151Observed: M 5.1 – 29 km SSE of Mina, Nevada 2020-06-30 09:24:23 (UTC) 38.158°N 117.957°W 8.7 km depth
Not unexpected as it is in the middle of this hot mess of a swarm of 9566 quakes since the 6.5 on 2020-05-15. It could be related to the 5.8 Lone Pine event of 2020-06-24, but I will need to spend time looking at the relationship possibilities. But the easy thing to say is that it is and aftershock of that 6.5.
Score: 0 -
|
You must be logged in to reply to this topic.