Western Ukraine 4.6 to 5.6 2020-09-27 to 2020-10-01

[Karma: 15 pts]

Canyonrat

September 28, 2020 at 3:09 am #9572

Forecast: I am expecting a quake will strike very soon, before 2020-10-02, center point is 48°43’28.44″N 23°34’50.64″E 250km/155mls radius less then 70km/44mls.

Observed: M 5.2 – 87 km SSW of Serdar, Turkmenistan 2020-09-26 05:46:55 (UTC) 38.203°N 56.055°E 10.0 km depth
M 5.3 – 31 km SSE of Karyes, Greece 2020-09-26 22:50:25 (UTC) 39.996°N 24.378°E 10.8 km depth

Thoughts: The 5.2 struck first, then the 5.3 struck. The typical travel path of this energy along with the U-Turn it needs to make just south of Ukraine places the center point is western Ukraine. I expect it to strike with in hours of this post. Also I need to expand from the most difficult North America forecast region and grab a few successes. Forecasting N. American quakes is close to being a successful Cat Herder. LOL

Score: 0

[Karma: 15 pts]

Canyonrat

September 28, 2020 at 3:12 am #9573

less then 70km/44mls DEPTH.

Score: 0

[Karma: 15 pts]

Canyonrat

October 1, 2020 at 9:48 pm #9590

There has been a series of quakes at or near this above mentioned 5.2 and 5.3.

4.8 on the 28th
4.7 on the 27th
4.7 on the 27th
4.5 on the 28th
4.5 on the 26th
and other smaller ones.

I will monitor and perhaps add time to this forecast as the energy appears “stuck” at this time.

Score: 0

[Karma: 15 pts]

Canyonrat

October 2, 2020 at 8:31 pm #9599

Wow, just had a quake. Located 134km/83mls out and outside my watch area.

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=907883
Magnitude ML 2.6
Region ROMANIA
Date time 2020-10-02 19:50:37.2 UTC
Location 45.31 N ; 24.23 E
Depth 2 km

The energy is finally moving along!

Extending the forecast until 2020-10-08. All other criteria remain appropriate.

Score: 0