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15 ptsCanyonratFebruary 1, 2021 at 7:05 am #10214
Lester, very sorry to hear of your losses. I call this the Pan-Damn-it. Even here in California, with the highest death rate per capita, we have been fortunate and no one we know has caught this illness or died from this illness.
Hey, if you want, we could do a zoom chat and meet face to face. Jen would have to set it up, she is a step or two ahead of me in this area.
Peace to you my friend.
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratFebruary 1, 2021 at 1:13 am #10209The entire west coast has gone quiet with only 7 quakes M 2.5+, and just one at M 3.3n the last 24 hours. The tremor map jumped to 715 tremors yesterday 2020-01-30. I watched Dutchsinse’s video report and he too expressed concern in the drop off of frequency and strength. He expressed concerns of M 4.0+ near Yellow Stone and Salt Lake areas. I am more concerned with a whip effect as he spoke of, but to the Bay Area. The M 3.3 occurred along a zone I call the ripples. If this were the summer time I would look south for spontaneous fires to brake out near East side of Napa County. But with this M3.3 and the M2.0s all heading to combine at the Roger Creek Fault I will look for the M3.8 to M4.1 to strike near Mount Diablo; this will not be a forecast success but rather be used as a marker to pinpoint the following M 4.2 to M 5.2. Be safe Bay Area.
So the frustrating thing is, what does this drop off mean? And if it means something, is this meaning consistent over time?
I see the drop as an indicator that a larger quake will release the pressure. But another thought or idea is that the drop off means the energy was absorbed into the American plate and we are done.
So we wait and observe.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJanuary 31, 2021 at 2:35 am #10203Update:
In the last few hours we had four quakes strike along the infamous Hayward / Rogers Creek Fault North Bay area and a bit further north. (2.0, 2.1, 2.3, 2.5, from north to south heading to the Bay Area Proper. What is notable about these tiny tiny quakes is that the USGS does not like to play with us forecasters. LOL! So when we show up to play (publicly), they grab their proverbial “beach ball” aka (moment tensor graph), and walk away. So only the Europeans are reporting these four quakes in Northern California. My thoughts are in 12 hours we will see larger then 2.5 along the Hayward Fault in the East Bay. Early Sunday morning our California Time. This could be in the upper 3.0’s that is part of my forcast.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJanuary 30, 2021 at 10:01 pm #10202Update:
New update from yesterday’s reading from the Pacific NW Seismic Network. Tremors had a big jump in numbers, but more eye opening in location concentration. The south tip of Vancouver Island saw about 657 tremors! Total for that day was 662. This falls into my “concerned watch” category, but I did expect this from the general trend.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJanuary 29, 2021 at 9:35 pm #10194Additions to my thoughts:
I will only count this as a forecast success for activity of 4.2 to 5.2. My forecast strength drops to 3.8 because I see multiple quakes occurring in multiple locations. The activity started with an offshore on the Juan de Fuca M 4.6 on 2021-01-27 and it then progressed on shore and has been moving south at a speed of one quake per day. We also had a 4.4 strike off shore but that was only reported by the Pacific NW Seismic Network on Jan 17, 2021. They also have been showing an increase in the number of tremors on their tremor map. Yesterday was the highest in two weeks with a count of 478. I normally start to get concerned at 500+. But the general amount of quakes have been increasing.
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratJanuary 24, 2021 at 1:08 am #10167Hello Lester. My first thought on the M7 was it came from or rather the energy rolled from the M 6.4 – 27 km SW of Pocito, Argentina 2021-01-19 02:46:22 (UTC) 31.823°S 68.818°W 20.0 km depth.
The M6.4 came from Magnitude 6.9, -39.34 -74.99 Mon Dec 28 2020 10:39 AM Depth 10km (this is from GEO Net New Zealand).
The 6.9 came from this M5.6 2020-12-14 01:57:10 -23.9355 179.8912 527.4km depth SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS IRIS ID# 1607911030 and when you use the depth to magnitude chart you add 1.0 to the magnitude but if memory serves since this is from New Zealand area you might add 1.2 to magnitude. For every 50k depth you add .1 magnitude, but with New Zealand area quakes you add .12 because their quakes have more power.
Dutch has mapped out the direction seismic energy flows around the planet. The energy flows from New Zealand to South America, then it can go up to Mexico and then out through the Caribbean Islands to the Atlantic Ridge and then stops there or it flows south toward the SE, goes under the tip of South America and goes of in several places in the Atlantic and finally stops at or just before the South Sandwich Ridge.
I would expect the Sandwich Island area to experience a 6.2 to 7.2 in the next 48 hours. Likely between the big South Sandwich Island and those 7 small Islands arcing on top of the Sandwich Ridge.
I would also expect to see 5.5 to 6.5 near Valdivia Chili area, but I am less certain about this one then the Sandwich Islands one. Valdivia had that 9.6 back in 1960.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJanuary 24, 2021 at 12:15 am #10165Sorry for breaking this up, but you are watching me fight with the web software.
My other attempts to post:
NOTE: This did not post, so I am reposting.
Canyonrat
January 23, 2021 at 10:57 pm #10146STILL NOT POSTING: Changed title
Canyonrat
January 23, 2021 at 11:46 pm #10150Canyonrat
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January 23, 2021 at 11:52 pm #1015115 ptsCanyonratJanuary 24, 2021 at 12:11 am #10163Mount Pinos: https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2004/5206/SIR5206-508.html
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJanuary 24, 2021 at 12:11 am #10162Garlock Fault: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/10/191030120334.htm
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJanuary 24, 2021 at 12:10 am #10161Thoughts: This region is a silent zone with several quakes that have overlapping influence. If I am low on my forecast and a M 5.0+ strikes near Lebec, then I will put my secondary forecast into play immediately until I can review the event and make a more formal forecast. Also, Mount Pinos is at it’s peak is 8847ft/2697meters high. The area is subjected to catastrophic uplifts from time to time. The last uplift was in 1857 14 miles south on the San Andreas from Parkfield CA, it had a magnitude of 7.9! This is all just good info, I do not see any thing big happening at this time.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJanuary 24, 2021 at 12:04 am #10159Observed:
M 4.2 – 4km SE of Aromas, CA 2021-01-17 04:01:27 (UTC) 36.867°N 121.611°W 8.3 km depth
M 4.0 – 13km SW of Olancha, CA 2021-01-17 02:49:08 (UTC) 36.188°N 118.094°W 1.1 km depth
M 3.5 – 2km W of Willowbrook, CA 2021-01-20 16:31:58 (UTC) 33.919°N 118.272°W 19.8 km depth
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJanuary 24, 2021 at 12:04 am #10158Forecast:
M 4.5 to M 5.5 Mount Pinos, CA 2021-01-23 to 2021-02-02 34°48’36.33″N 119° 9’0.76″W 100mls/160kms radius less then 70km deep
Secondary Forecast:
If we see a M 5.0+ near Lebec, CA and Frazier Park, CA, then there is an immediate alert for M 6.0+ for both the Garlock Fault and or the San Andreas from Parkfield, CA to the Salton Sea, CA.
Score: 015 pts15 pts15 pts15 ptsCanyonratJanuary 2, 2021 at 7:56 pm #10035Lester, well done. The Geologists did not see any eruptions coming, and a 4.3 just 2 days after your first forecast! On the Dec 12, two 4.3’s. Also close and worth mentioning. And the “blub blub” with a “puff” – volcano talk, I know “puff” has another meaning in England. LOL
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratJanuary 2, 2021 at 7:48 pm #10033https://www.facebook.com/groups/earthquakesdownunder/
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJanuary 2, 2021 at 7:47 pm #10032A 4.3 just struck where the Hayward and San Andreas meet. An area I posted a watch for 2 weeks ago on Earthquakes Downunder. This area has been active with quakes the last couple of years. This is 4.3 not from the Philippine Sea Plate 4.3 from Dec 29. So my conclusion is this is from the 5.7 that struck offshore of Oregon on Dec 29.
Also of note was a very uncommon 3.3 quake off shore of San Fransisco on Dec 31, to be more precise, right out from the Golden Gate Bridge. It is just worth mentioning because because the USGS did two increased revisions to a 3.6 and even gave us a beach ball “Tensor data” which they often don’t do for small quakes and especially off shore quakes. But over 6000 people felt it. A 3.6 is as violent as riding in a car with good suspension. LOL
Observed: M 4.3 – 10km NW of Pinnacles, CA 2021-01-02 14:42:23 (UTC) 36.608°N 121.213°W 6.4 km depth
M 5.7 – 205 km W of Bandon, Oregon 2020-12-29 07:10:29 (UTC) 43.371°N 126.914°W 10.0 km depth
M 3.6 – 7km S of Muir Beach, CA 2020-12-31 13:41:59 (UTC) 37.799°N 122.594°W 13.1 km depth
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratDecember 30, 2020 at 8:04 pm #10024As for why I stop the watch on 2020-01-05?
A deep 4.3 just struck on the east side of the Philippine Sea Plate. If the energy is strong enough when it reaches North America we could see 4.4 to 5.4 energy strike. It takes about 10 days for the energy to arrive, that places it on Jan. 5 2020. But my guess is smaller quakes move slower. If you use the depth to Magnitude chart, the 4.3 is 533km deep and 533 adds 1.06 magnitude of strength of rounded up 1.1 so I calculate this quake as a 5.4. I do not expect energy larger then 5.4. If it takes a step down, the we would see 3.9 to 4.9 energy. I decided to be on the upper end of energy (a guess) because California has seen notable small quakes on the plate boundary.
Observed: M 4.3 – 21 km S of Valencia, Philippines 2020-12-29 18:43:22 (UTC)9.416°N 124.226°E 533.4 km depth
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