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15 ptsCanyonratOctober 22, 2020 at 7:51 pm #9693
I will be away for the weekend and might not be able to post.
What I am seeing spread from the 7.5/7.6 Alaskan quake are mid 4’s. My gut says that is all we will see for the next week.
I think these quakes are related to the 7.5/7.6:
Event ID 20201022.0722003
Date/Time (UTC) 2020-10-22 07:22:58
Magnitude 4.4
Coordinates 74.037N, 90.860W
Depth (km) 18.0
Description 141 km SE from Resolute, NUand this one
M 4.5 – Kuril Islands 2020-10-22 07:50:38 (UTC) 47.925°N 154.126°E 35.0 km depth
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratOctober 20, 2020 at 3:18 pm #9680One quake at the geysers since 22:39 2020-10-19 UTC. A look back over the last 7 days shows the strongest quakes (two of them) had magnitudes of 2.3. I think we might see two sets of quakes come through. An existing wave from 7-14 days ago and a new one from the wave that dropped off a 7.5 in Alaska.
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratOctober 19, 2020 at 11:11 pm #9674Also of interest is the tremor map. It had been reading what we call a high number 500+ per day of tremors for a weak. This indicates pressure building. The last day of 500+ was 2020-10-13, or 6 days ago.
I have been watching our other seismic pressure gauge, the Geysers in my home territory of Sonoma County California, aka “The wine country.” Nothing noticeable has caught my attention. What we look for is a 24 hour period of under 8 quakes or over 30 quakes. Then I take the largest quake, add 1.5 to the magnitude, and look off shore on the south end of Juan de Fuca for seismic events to come ashore. Though I must admit, that this geyser forecasting system has not been holding up very well. It holds up for the off shore stuff, then it becomes as successful as herding cats, which means the quakes go everywhere but your forecast area. LOL SO far today, we have 8 quakes with the strongest a 2.1. If it goes silent after this posting, then I will make another comment about it.
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 115 pts15 ptsCanyonratOctober 19, 2020 at 6:45 am #9668Correction:
Of note, the 16 quakes were all with in 33km/53mls of my center point. Of the four listed ones, three were with in 11km/17mls distance of my center point. One day left of my extended forecast. I get locations and timing fairly often, but I just forecast too high. I am learning or as Doctor’s say, “practicing!”
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratOctober 19, 2020 at 6:39 am #9666Test to see if this website is blocked:
Mexican Seismic Search Network
http://www2.ssn.unam.mx:8080/catalogo/
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratOctober 19, 2020 at 6:37 am #9665Test to see if this website is blocked:
Canadian Earthquake Database
https://earthquakescanada.nrcan.gc.ca/stndon/NEDB-BNDS/bulletin-en.php
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratOctober 19, 2020 at 6:32 am #9663Also, I have again been trying to make new forecast posts, but they will not appear of the forum.
https://quakewatch.net/?post_type=topic&p=9652
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratOctober 19, 2020 at 6:30 am #9662Lester, I am having a hard time seeing any quakes right now. LOL
I think your quake was from a wave of energy that dropped off was earlier seen in these two locations
Magnitude Mw 5.7
Region FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
Date time 2020-10-08 14:22:41.0 UTC
Location 52.95 N ; 168.32 W
Depth 44 km
Distances 1435 km SSW of Anchorage, United States / pop: 298,000 / local time: 06:22:41.0 2020-10-08
157 km SW of Unalaska, United States / pop: 4,400 / local time: 06:22:41.0 2020-10-08Magnitude Mw 5.9
Region SOUTH OF ALASKA
Date time 2020-10-06 05:54:50.6 UTC
Location 54.91 N ; 159.86 W
Depth 30 km
Distances 912 km SSW of Anchorage, United States / pop: 298,000 / local time: 21:54:50.6 2020-10-05
62 km SE of Sand Point, United States / pop: 1,000 / local time: 21:54:50.6 2020-10-05Both of these were on the north side of the plate boundary. That generally means the energy mostly heads west and into Alaska or Canada. When we see 6.5 and larger the energy can head in three directions including back east and even make the U-Turn and head south and into California.
I think this energy headed into Canada and seen here (Canadian feed)
Event ID 20201015.0111001
Date/Time (UTC) 2020-10-15 01:11:01
Magnitude 3.6
Coordinates 62.729N, 125.387W
Depth (km) 7.4
Description 108 km SW of Wrigley, NTEvent ID 20201018.1646001
Date/Time (UTC) 2020-10-18 16:46:38
Magnitude 4.8
Coordinates 62.121N, 124.704W
Depth (km) 10.0
Description Preliminary; 140 KM SW OF WRIGLEY, NTEvent ID 20201016.1356001
Date/Time (UTC) 2020-10-16 13:56:33
Magnitude 4.0
Coordinates 51.045N, 130.248W
Depth (km) 10.0
Description Preliminary; 197 KM W OF PORT HARDY, BCAnd then struck your watch area USGS feed darn near your center spot
M 3.4 – 7km ENE of Petrolia, CA 2020-10-18 07:01:57 (UTC) 40.347°N 124.209°W 28.5 km depth
How ever the push indicates a north ward direction, so it could be the weird activity I am seeing and expecting coming Gulf of California and heading reverse direction to normal flow.
My conclusion is add some time but the 3.4 might have been it.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratOctober 19, 2020 at 6:02 am #9658These four have struck (along with about a dozen smaller down to 1.0), but too small. Of note they all were with in 33km/53mls of my center point and the of my listed ones were with in 11km/17km distance. One day left if extended forecast.
Even if I added all the energy together it would add to about M3.2 worth of energy. Too small.
M 2.8 – 2km ENE of New Idria, CA 2020-10-14 12:18:05 (UTC) 36.425°N 120.648°W 4.0 km depth
Score: 0
M 2.8 – 8km SSE of Gilroy, CA 2020-10-14 23:27:32 (UTC) 36.938°N 121.538°W 1.5 km depth
M 2.5 – 6km WSW of Gilroy, CA 2020-10-15 15:17:03 (UTC) 36.977°N 121.632°W 3.5 km depth
M 2.6 – 17km NW of Pinnacles, CA 2020-10-17 11:15:45 (UTC) 36.645°N 121.265°W 6.3 km depth15 ptsCanyonratOctober 10, 2020 at 5:21 pm #9641Updating and renewing with more specifics for an infill quake.
We are heading out for the week end so this is an “on the run” forecast.
Observed: M 4.5 – 37 km SSW of San Carlos, Mexico 2020-10-04 17:13:14 (UTC) 27.630°N 111.149°W 10.0 km depth
M 4.4 – 248 km SW of Tofino, Canada 2020-10-05 10:47:35 (UTC) 47.839°N 128.630°W 10.0 km depthForecast: 4.2 to 5.2 near the San Andreas near Pinnacles National Forest 36°36’36.21″N 121°11’50.43″W 2020-10-10 to 2020-10-19 less then 70km depth
Thoughts: These two quakes should in fill nearly directly between each other 5 to 14 days after striking. So that puts today through 2020-10-19 in play. Also this area is an active area for quakes.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratOctober 8, 2020 at 4:06 pm #9630Becca, if you look at the Canadian feed, they show 14 quakes 3.0+ next to the underwater thermal vent sanctuary located about 200 miles off shore from Seattle area with the strongest at 4.1, all in just a few day window.
I have no idea what might happen, or how big, or where exactly. But I think something significant is about to occur in North America.
Mark
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 115 pts15 ptsCanyonratOctober 3, 2020 at 6:34 pm #9607Alaska has gone quiet for the last 9 hours. Of note, I am looking at the Aleutian Island chain and southern part of Alaska. I do see two 2.2’s in the farthest NE corner of Alaska. That is not anywhere near the area I am focused on.
Observed: M 4.4 – 16 km SW of Circleville, Utah 2020-10-03 11:47:43 (UTC) 38.091°N 112.423°W 5.7 km depth
Thoughts: The 4.4, though weak, would indicate and area of possible unrest along a line from Shadow Mountain in California 36°15’44.25″N 116°15’34.35″W to the town of Lebec California 34°50’40.14″N 118°51’59.10″W… Which lines strain on the Garlock Fault. My thinking has been that the Garlock would likely give just after a 5.0+ strikes on or near the southern end where it meets the San Andreas Fault. Why? Because if the Ridge Crest 7.2 on 2019-07-06 could not move it, then something elsewhere would have to move it.
Lester, thank you for your coordinates for 118’30’W – 34’20’N Santa Clarita, California which sits on the San Gabriel Fault Zone that heads North West and strait to Lebec and the south end of the Garlock Fault…
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratOctober 3, 2020 at 5:28 pm #9604Lester, I took no offense to you comments. I actually thank you for suggesting “consideration”. That sounds quite appropriate. Yes I am going to extend a few days.
Sorry your wife is ill. And yes we have double cabin fever here. Now we have a massive fire storm burning through Napa County and into Sonoma County. It has been raining ashes and large (up to 5 inch by 5 inch) burned leaves for 6 days now. This is something new, even the firefighters say this is new. Last Sunday at 11 pm friends arrived at our house from an evacuation zone. I was up until 4am Monday morning watering down our large property and only able to make it with a few shots of tequila and some pain pills.
Onto quakes. Alaska went totally silent for 8 (yes, eight hours)! I have never seen this before. Could be fine, could be far from fine. LOL
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratOctober 2, 2020 at 8:31 pm #9599Wow, just had a quake. Located 134km/83mls out and outside my watch area.
https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=907883
Magnitude ML 2.6
Region ROMANIA
Date time 2020-10-02 19:50:37.2 UTC
Location 45.31 N ; 24.23 E
Depth 2 kmThe energy is finally moving along!
Extending the forecast until 2020-10-08. All other criteria remain appropriate.
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratOctober 1, 2020 at 9:48 pm #9590There has been a series of quakes at or near this above mentioned 5.2 and 5.3.
4.8 on the 28th
4.7 on the 27th
4.7 on the 27th
4.5 on the 28th
4.5 on the 26th
and other smaller ones.I will monitor and perhaps add time to this forecast as the energy appears “stuck” at this time.
Score: 0 -
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