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15 ptsCanyonratSeptember 28, 2020 at 2:50 am #9570
Update “repeat”: We had a 3.4 and three 2.3’s go off all about 50km from my center point. This is the most activity we have seen in the last 6 months. So I have 3 of my criteria filled, but strength too week. The 3.4 had interesting moment tensor data showing equal energy push both NE and SW. The 2.3’s and other smaller ones are “roughly” located in those directions. This is not rocket science, just rock science. LOL Keep your expectations low. LOL Ben should use my joke on his morning broadcast.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratSeptember 27, 2020 at 12:32 am #9567WOW! Look at these two reportings of the same quake.
USGS M 5.3 – 58 km ENE of Mulegé, Mexico 2020-09-24 23:01:29 (UTC) 27.173°N 111.481°W 10.0 km depth
Mexican Seismic Network 97 km al NORTE de LORETO, BCS 26.89 -111.31 13.0 4.9 2020-09-24 23:01:29I am not “throwing in the towel” on this forecast just yet, however I do believe the 5.3 and the 4.4 that both struck on 2020-09-24 with in 5 minutes of each other and 14 miles apart was the energy I was looking for, including the forecast of two quakes. The main on was at the lower end of my strength range and the second one came in lower then I would have expected. I also had two other quakes go off just a few miles outside of my watch area on 2020-09-21 a 4.9 and 4.5 just miles apart and 5 hours apart.
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratSeptember 26, 2020 at 10:19 pm #9563Lester, thank you for the inclusion! I am looking at the energy right now and I only see 4.0 to 5.0. The 5.3 that struck center of Sea of Cortez / Gulf of Mexico could push a 5.2 in to California. Remember, North American quakes are usually weaker and later then you expect. LOL Think of any expectations you have of teenage family members, if you expect them for diner at 6pm and to bring some french bread, expect them at 7:30 and no french bread…LOL
Observed: M 5.3 – 58 km ENE of Mulegé, Mexico 2020-09-24 23:01:29 (UTC) 27.173°N 111.481°W 10.0 km depth
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratSeptember 25, 2020 at 12:22 am #9551I posted over on Facebook Cascadia Rising on Sept 21, 2020:
Thoughts: I still have time in my forecast. Also we have new energy that could roll in from this M 5.8 – central East Pacific Rise 2020-09-21 13:37:15 (UTC) 4.043°S 104.384°W 10.0 km depth if it does not take the right turn to the east on the Nazca:Cocos Divergent Boundary / fault / plate boundary.
Now we have a M 5.3 – 58 km ENE of Mulegé, Mexico 2020-09-24 23:01:29 (UTC) 27.173°N 111.481°W 10.0 km depth in the Sea of Cortez aka Gulf of California. What is interesting about this is it is located at the middle point between these two quakes:
M 4.5 – 3km WSW of South El Monte, CA 2020-09-19 06:38:46 (UTC) 34.038°N 118.080°W 16.9 km depth
and
M 4.9 – Revilla Gigedo Islands region 2020-09-21 09:00:04 (UTC) 19.882°N 109.229°W 10.0 km depthMy thoughts? I got lazy. this was an easy one to see coming IF it went strait and did not make the turn and head east. I would have forecasted the strength at 4.6 to 5.6 and in that area and in this time window 2020-09-23 to 2020-10-02. I won’t make this slip up again.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratSeptember 21, 2020 at 8:54 pm #9541Just saw this from the Mexican feed Via EQ3D.
Observed: M4.6 2020-09-21 04:00 (UTC) 19.809999° -109.139999° 350km depth (EQ3D)
Comment: This is what the EQ3D program picked up from the Mexican Seismic Network. There is no way to sugar coat this…the Seismologist and or Computer Techs that work for the Servicio Sismologico Nacional “SSN” post questionable reports of quakes. When the other feeds pick up from the SSN and then what the SSN later reports are NEVER the same. Often all the quakes get reported at the same location, which could likely be where their office is located. LOL Does the screaming in my head bother anyone? LOL I recommend using data from the SSN as supportive info at a secondary level.
Thoughts: If we use the depth to magnitude calculation we would add .8 to the magnitude and this 4.6 would be considered a 5.4 for forecasting purposes. And it is 11km out side of my watch area but in my strength range.
The SSN website: http://www2.ssn.unam.mx:8080/catalogo/ You will need to check the “I am not a Robot box” and then Pres the “Buscar” button. Buscar can mean in English “look for” or “search for” so I think the button name means “search”. I have the page link set for map mode.
Score: 015 pts15 pts15 ptsCanyonratSeptember 21, 2020 at 8:03 pm #9538Observed:
Hit in the watch zone! Too weak. 🙁
M 4.4 – 99 km SW of Altata, Mexico 2020-09-21 04:35:53 (UTC) 23.963°N 108.587°W 10.0 km depth5km out side my watch zone, just a tad too weak, and it fulfills my thinking we could observe one or two quakes striking the area.
M 4.9 – Revilla Gigedo Islands region 2020-09-21 09:00:04 (UTC) 19.882°N 109.229°W 10.0 km depth17km out side my watch zone, and too weak. It also fulfills my thinking that multiple quakes would occur.
M 4.5 – Revilla Gigedo Islands region 2020-09-21 04:22:12 (UTC) 19.794°N 109.293°W10.0 km depthThoughts: I still have time in my forecast. Also we have new energy that could roll in from this M 5.8 – central East Pacific Rise 2020-09-21 13:37:15 (UTC) 4.043°S 104.384°W 10.0 km depth if it does not take the right turn to the east on the Nazca:Cocos Divergent Boundary / fault / plate boundary.
Score: 015 pts15 pts15 ptsCanyonratSeptember 16, 2020 at 7:59 am #9519I can post under 200 words with no problems at this time? I think FB and USGS are upset with me for negative comments on fires on faults, BLM, and pending USA Civil War as soon as the Republicans get started. This is not the only forum I am having problems on.
Score: 015 pts15 pts15 pts15 pts15 ptsCanyonratSeptember 14, 2020 at 12:26 am #9501Hello Lester, I am hopefully back in the quake ring and out of my ring of fire. LOL
I do see 5.0 to 5.5 energy rolling through your area. I would also count an unexpected volcanic blast in your area as 5.0 and a success!
I have some new Juan de Fuca forecasts, but my account is again unable to post a forecast, just able to post responses. I texted Ben and Kat via S0 web site.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratSeptember 5, 2020 at 6:01 am #9477North America sucks. It gets the tail ends of quakes and takes longer then normal (normal being the rest of he earth). So I drop many of my forecasts by 1 or 2 magnitudes and make the forecasts 3 to 4 weeks. Living in California and trying to forecast quakes has lead me to this formula. Lower magnitude and increase time to +1 week windows.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratSeptember 3, 2020 at 9:10 pm #9473Becca, I too am watching off shore N.cal Oregon and up to the north tip of Vancouver Island. I have not asked you before, and am very impressed with your work, what is your methodology/system to forecasting?
Mark
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 115 ptsCanyonratSeptember 1, 2020 at 6:16 am #9461Actually, I signed up under lifetime…LOL! No joking…LOL What happened was my 2 year membership ended late July and I overlooked that. This should be a final fix. I was still able to make replies, but not start a forecast. I think that is what confused me. If I was unable to do anything, then my new 2 watt LED would have gone off in my head and I would have figured it out. But you know us Californians, we conserve and recycle everything, perhaps we are conserving too much “thinking energy” based on the state of things. LOL
Also I have been and should be busy for another 2 weeks.
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