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15 ptsCanyonratJuly 31, 2020 at 2:07 am #9323
I too am watching Cascadia/Juan de Fuca, but my thoughts are the energy is not from the 7.8 but rather Japan 11 days ago. I think all three 4’s we saw today in California are from Japan, wave number one. If it was from Alaska, we would have only seen it on the Juan de Fuca then a day or two later spread east and south. But this is just a hypothesis I am working on. So no forecast from me at this time, just watching. And you are much better at this then I am, so you do have my respect! Mark
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 115 ptsCanyonratJuly 27, 2020 at 3:07 am #9314I have reviewed, thought about, and re-reviewed California, Oregon, and Washington States. It looks like to me, that nothing big will strike…however, the east edge of California from Ridge Crest to Mono Lake, could be struck with a 6.0ish energy. My certainty of this is low, and that is why I have been rather quiet, my tools just don’t show anything with even moderate certainty.
So this is a watch, not a forecast because it is just a good guess.
Center point, 37° 0’40.30″N 117°26’34.15″W, 160km/100mls radius, from now to 2020-08-02, 5.5 to 6.5, no deeper the 70km. So this is the circle, but I don’t think anything will strike far west from HWY 395 but do think we could see really larger activity 6.0+ strike east of an area I have been watching from a few weeks ago:
From 2020-06-15: “My “hunch” is it will come in around M 6.7 south of Latitude 40 and in central Nevada, east of the swarm of quakes currently rumbling and near the highways of ( US 6 and State Route 375 ) 375 is also known as Extraterrestrial Highway. 🙂 Just a “good old” unscientific “hunch” and maybe a UFO will zoom by to observe said quake.”
Today July 26 an observed and a very rare quake indeed: M 2.2 – 66 km NW of Rachel, Nevada 2020-07-26 03:58:38 (UTC) 38.067°N 116.282°W 16.2 km depth (located 16km/10mls from the Extraterrestrial Highway Intersection!).
My hunch was all the seismic activity to the west of this was going to spread and spread WITH SIGNIFICANCE to the east and somewhere around this very location. This could very well be a one-off rare quake…or the first of 2000+ quakes.
Back to the watch area. So if quakes strike to the east of my circle, up to 160km/100mls, this is what I have been looking for. But guessing for, no science behind it.
And we can not rule out human intuition, but it is difficult to rely upon. Kind of like when you are getting out of you car in a parking lot, and you just get back in and drive to a different section of the parking lot, it just did not feel “right” at the first spot.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJuly 25, 2020 at 6:55 pm #9309Lester, I too keep looking at central Oregon. But it is so rare to have quakes, and my data just barely points to this area.
I am watching this quake: M 5.1 – southeast of Shikoku, Japan 2020-07-16 20:03:09 (UTC)30.314°N 136.779°E 502.0 km depth (6.1 energy) to roll under the Pacific and strike inland from the N. American Western Coast with similar energy. It should arrive between 2020-07-26 and 2020-08-02 IF my hypotheses is true. Location of such a quake is still not determinable. So if we see a 6.0ish quake strike 200+ miles inland, that is the energy I am looking for. My observational forecasting does not show me anything confirming for potential quakes, so I am sitting and watching at this time.
Score: 015 pts15 pts15 pts15 ptsCanyonratJuly 5, 2020 at 7:32 pm #9198To clarify my magnitude range and location…
Observed: M 5.0 – 29 km SSE of Mina, Nevada 2020-06-30 09:24:23 (UTC) 38.154°N 117.958°W 8.3 km depth USGS
M 5.8 – CENTRAL CALIFORNIA 2020-06-24 17:40:48 UTC 36.48 N ; 117.97 W Depth 6 km EMSC-CSEMThese two quakes and the 4.0 at the Geysers all over lap (using EQ3D program) at my center point. The energy in California has been 15 quakes 4.0 or greater in the last 25 days. These three along with the a “potential” push from this quake M 5.5 – 219 km S of Sand Point, Alaska 2020-07-05 08:53:35 (UTC) 53.366°N 160.431°W 10.0 km depth in the next 3 to 10 days makes think larger and sooner.
There is a slight chance the 4.0 could be a for-shock for a 5.5 on the southern half of the Juan de Fuca, but I think this won’t happen this time.
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratJuly 2, 2020 at 4:21 pm #9178Fred, It looks like an observational forecast.
I concur with the area and I like that you placed it near a volcano. The over lapping of energy I see from a quick review are these three quakes:
M 5.0 – 29 km SSE of Mina, Nevada 2020-06-30 09:24:23 (UTC) 38.154°N 117.958°W 8.3 km depth
M 4.6 – 27 km NW of Stanley, Idaho 2020-06-25 05:20:59 (UTC) 44.399°N 115.181°W 7.5 km depth
M 3.4 – 21 km ENE of Amanda Park, Washington 2020-06-27 11:25:51 (UTC) 47.500°N 123.624°W 33.5 km depthThe 3.4 is in the middle of ancient volcano area. The other two are in active volcano areas.
Possible push from this quake (according to my new hypothesis) M 4.2 – Izu Islands, Japan region 2020-06-26 01:25:36 (UTC) 30.762°N 137.461°E 484.5 km depth. The depth adds .9 to magnitude making it 5.1 worth of energy. Arrival likely July 2 through July 12 with likeliest timing 10 days after the event July 5.
Historically the area shows zero quake activity. But if it strikes, this will be a very impressive forecast and you will need to explain how you arrived at it…AKA “tell us your secrets” or at least just me…LOL
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJuly 2, 2020 at 3:45 pm #9177Highest resolution I can find at this time: https://scx2.b-cdn.net/gfx/news/hires/2020/geologistsid.jpg
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratJuly 2, 2020 at 3:12 pm #9175One link I just found: http://spaceref.com/earth/geologists-identify-deep-earth-structures-that-may-signal-hidden-metal-lodes.html
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJuly 2, 2020 at 3:09 pm #9174Good morning from California Lester,
I just watched Ben’s morning news. He talks about a new lithosphere map. It does support my idea that quakes roll under the pacific plate and when the reach North America the must hit a thicker area of the plate (meaning the plate goes deeper down) and we have “unexpected” larger quakes. At the Rocky Mountain Range in the middle of the USA this map clearly shows a thickening of the N. American plate. Fun stuff, now I need to go find a super high-res of this new map!
This weekend I’m going to follow all your steps from above. I have all those sites booked marked.
Mark
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJuly 2, 2020 at 6:26 am #9170Lester, I will follow your methodology in a few days. Just super busy right now. I think this is an important quake and should cause the start of other quakes that spread out. I actually was reviewing my ring for this…it might be a bit too small. I noticed when I pushed it out further, it overlays the arc of historical quakes west of Sumatra and south of Java. I do find that interesting. Again it is the depth of this quake that is the key component.
So this is an experience I had many years ago, before I thought twice about quakes. We were walking on a floating dock 200 or 300 feet long made of of many 20 foot long sections chained together. A boat passed by at a high rate of speed and created a 2 foot wave. The dock lifted with the wave. I noticed that at the joints between the 20 foot sections, only in one joint did any splash of water squirt up (about 5 feet high). Move to two years ago when I am watching Dutch talk about waves of energy under the crust, and when it rolls under a weak point it causes a quake. But it is not a circular wave like a rock dropped in a pool. It some how focuses and follows plate boundarys. I have observed this pattern. And I have watched quakes go off with really no observable cause. So my thinking is two waves or more, of large size intersect and cause extra “pressure?” and a quake pops off. It reminds me of the wave tanks when they set multiple waves off and then these “squirts” pop up here and there. I am thinking very large waves likely hundreds of miles in size. I don’t think we humans have any way to observe them right now. And it is possible that there is some data being collected that if we found and bastardized (LOL) could use it totally differently to maybe see such wave activity 600km and deeper in the earth at semi-close to real time.
AND then there is my South of Japan deep quake idea. Energy starts there, rolls east for some reason, some how gets to the Hawaiian volcanic chain, then moves into one of those 4 large cracks on the bottom of the Pacific that all ending on the west coast North America. And this could explain all these large quakes that happened over the last 3 months in North America. All unexpected and larger in size (5+). I posted “help” 2 weeks before they started, was close forecasting when the 4th struck.
I am thinking less math, more observation. I carpentry there is a saying (which I have found to be true), “your best carpentry does not involve the tape measure.” You place the wood next to where it goes, make a mark on it, cut and install and it is perfect. Then another aspect is building to the plans/blue prints and realizing a door needs to be moved inches over because it is the better place for it. It is a difficult thing to describe, and I do this type of carpentry regularly.
I think I am doing something like this with seismic energy. And trust me when I say, I invest money without emotion, ride my motorcycle by being aware of my instruments (kept me alive and unijured for 26 years of riding high speeds). I do consider my thinking as structured not “airy fairy” LOL.
Score: 015 pts15 pts15 ptsCanyonratJuly 1, 2020 at 6:29 am #9159I just posted a new ring theory hypothesis before reading your forecast. https://quakewatch.net/forums/topic/very-important-quake-not-my-area-sabah-malaysia-2020-06-30-ring-therory/
Your location is 90mls off of that ring thus well i range. My calculations show 6.3 energy so 5.8 to 6.8 next 7 days. We overlap on strength, time, and area.
More details in two days…super busy.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJuly 1, 2020 at 2:02 am #9157Thank you Lester!
There is definitely lower 5.0 energy rolling that way, next 2 to 3 days.
Observed: M 5.4 – 192 km SE of Katsuura, Japan 2020-06-29 09:52:49 (UTC) 33.872°N 141.732°E 10.0 km depth
The moment tensor data shows a strong eastward push, so it should be strong to the east of the plate boundary.
There is the energy, now the “where”?
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratJune 30, 2020 at 3:09 pm #9151Observed: M 5.1 – 29 km SSE of Mina, Nevada 2020-06-30 09:24:23 (UTC) 38.158°N 117.957°W 8.7 km depth
Not unexpected as it is in the middle of this hot mess of a swarm of 9566 quakes since the 6.5 on 2020-05-15. It could be related to the 5.8 Lone Pine event of 2020-06-24, but I will need to spend time looking at the relationship possibilities. But the easy thing to say is that it is and aftershock of that 6.5.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJune 29, 2020 at 2:22 am #9141Observed: 4.2 that struck today I think is just barely inside my circle. M 4.2 – 28km WNW of Petrolia, CA 2020-05-19 15:58:31 (UTC) 40.454°N 124.562°W 23.6 km depth.
This was in my large watch area at less then 240km with my radius at 242km, but not a success because I was really looking to the north. This was a random event.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJune 29, 2020 at 2:15 am #9140My forecast point and radius captured 4800 quakes in the time period including extended time period.
I missed on size. The largest were under 5.0 during and after my forecast periods.
38 quakes struck during my watch period in the 4.0 to 4.9 range.
A total of 4700+ quakes struck during my watch period and in my area while most were close to my center point.
My thinking is, we will see a much larger event east of the line of quakes, but we need some energy to roll in and charge it.
Again, sleepy and quiet North America.
Score: 015 pts15 pts15 ptsCanyonratJune 29, 2020 at 1:45 am #9137Some partial misses. 🙁 But still solid misses.
I caught this one! Observed: M 4.4 – 67 km SSW of ?yama, Japan 2020-06-21 04:55:21 (UTC) 34.022°N 137.985°E 306.2 km depth. USGS. Too small and had to throw it back into the ocean. LOL And I don’t fish. LOL
Observed this big one, but out of reach, but Lester caught it!!! M 5.9 – 40 km SE of Hasaki, Japan 2020-06-24 19:47:44 (UTC) 35.453°N 141.127°E 28.9 km depth. Congrats to Lester on his northern forecast!
Observed this one, but out of reach and too small. M 4.2 – Izu Islands, Japan region 2020-06-26 01:25:36 (UTC) 30.762°N 137.461°E 484.5 km depth and the depth to magnitude makes this one a 5.1 !!! And I will make a forecast based upon this one under my hypothesis that it will roll under the Pacific and strike unexpectedly inland in North America east of California. My watch area is south of “about here 30°24’3.54″N 139°39’40.63″E and this is still being developed.
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