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15 ptsCanyonratJune 28, 2020 at 6:24 pm #9130
Lester, I have re-reviewed that 5.8 Lone Pine quake. Hmmm, seems it could be “unexpected”. That tiny area has been very quiet this last year, and now with the 5.8 and 580 quakes in the last 4 or 5 days, all under this lake? So with this whole hot mess of quakes the lake area adds up to around 6.4+. What is really interesting, during the prior year a total of 58 quakes have occurred under this lake with the strongest a M 2.95. Of those 58 “about” 15 or less occurred before June of 2020. Disclaimer I’m not going to do an exact count of tiny tiny quakes, so the scientific data of “there about’s” shall stand. LOL
And my watch is still on a few more days.
And something else is going on in North America. We have about 6 areas swarming for months now. The Idaho Yellow Stone area always has quakes, but the number of quakes has notably increased.
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratJune 28, 2020 at 5:32 pm #9128JEC,
A quick observational forecast based on the greater area of quakes indicates that a 4.5 to 5.5 could strike in the next 7 days from today here 30° 0’45.13″N 99°40’15.10″E. There is history of quakes going off on this ancient looking “possibly” old very weathered volcano. Disclaimer – I don’t forecast this area.
So my technique could be used as another point of data for your forecast.
Mark
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJune 27, 2020 at 10:50 pm #9119Lester,
Yes I am very aware you could likely analyze me under the table. I have read some old posts where you have been referred to as “Professor”. You have my full attention and respect, truly. Being on Quakewatch has made me rapidly examine new ideas, question my methods, and made me consider that no single forecasting method will stand on it’s own, it might be a blend or combo of methods. Also I will step up my on the description of my process, my apologies on that. As you can see from much of what I write, I try to be consistent and methodical. On my “watches” I can provide best hunches/guesses on varying points. With a dash of humor. 🙂
Thank you for your comments. When I place a watch it means no credit for correct results. In the case of the Sandwich Islands, I am off of my crossing circles by hundreds of miles and I have a very wide magnitude range. Both of which are way too sloppy for a formal forecast.
What I did in this situation was I looked at the cross, and saw NOTHING there. No prior quakes, etc. So I looked around and noticed this is where Dutch has his “X” which indicates an ending point for quakes. So I made that my watch area because of that, and there are volcanoes there and many old earthquakes there.
So what is my thinking of finding a cross and then not using it. It is from my thinking about plate boundaries. If I observe two quakes along a plate boundary and then I search for the middle point between them, it is a bit of a guess BECAUSE the plate boundary is not a strait even line, it often meanders like a creek does. SO I have to (at this time) kind of follow the boundary guesstimate the middle point, and then look for a reason a quake would strike on one side or the other or closer to one of the observed quakes or not. So I look for history of past quakes and volcanoes etc.
My other consideration has been about what is going on deep down. A few weeks ago Counselor mentioned adding depth to my forecast…hmmm… I had not thought of that, but now I am. I used his suggestion to push my thinking into more 3D thinking rather then a flat 2D map thinking. So now I am using this to observe and then further fine tune my center points.
And the last two weeks have been very unexpected and busy for me and I have so much I want to study/research, including re-reading all that you have provided me and then try it for my self, and read Ben’s new text book that I received a few weeks ago.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJune 26, 2020 at 7:02 pm #9108Correctly watched for these two quakes and likely one more to come and be in the M6+ range.
Observed quakes:
M 4.9 – South Sandwich Islands region 2020-06-26 08:21:27 (UTC) 59.889°S 25.391°W 10.0 km depth. This was really a 5.0 but the USGS weighted all the readings above M5.0 at 0 and gave one a .75 weight and gave all the upper M4’s weightings of 1.
M 5.3 – South Sandwich Islands region 2020-06-26 02:10:24 (UTC) 56.750°S 25.387°W 10.0 km depth.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJune 26, 2020 at 5:51 pm #9106Thebubbanews, welcome. You will find we are a diligent and hard working group of forecasters in “training”. LOL Forecasting is difficult. We have several types of forecasting methods being used by different forecasters. I am following Dutchsince method and have given it a name, “Observational Forecasting” which means I use prior quakes to forecast the next quake. I mostly focus on North America which is one of the most difficult areas to forecast for. What is your method or methods?
Ben has been reporting the increase in lightening over the last few days. I don’t know or understand what it means, but I am paying attention.
I have a Watch (not a forecast) going right now which supports your IG post about larger activity in North America. The watch is for M5.9 to M7.2 2020-06-20 to 2020-06-30. Watch areas: all of Nevada and Arizona and Utah, Colorado to the east edge of the Rocky Mountains, New Mexico to the east edge of the Rocky Mountains, and tiny western tip of Texas.
This morning I turned my EQ3D program and I am stunned at the hundreds of quakes going off in the last 24 hours in North America.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJune 26, 2020 at 3:01 am #9100and this photo of distorted dam. I do not know if this is good or bad.
https://img.theepochtimes.com/assets/uploads/2019/07/08/Three-Gorges-Dam-20092018.jpg
Score: 015 pts15 pts15 ptsCanyonratJune 26, 2020 at 2:39 am #9097Dam, the damn could be in dam distress over deluge pushing on the dam damn… “I just like saying all the “D” words.” LOL
JEC, you bringing awareness to all of us of the situation with the Three Gorges Dam is note worthy and I have given you karma points for that. Thank you for that. There is still time in your forecast. You are, as Lester points out, the only one looking in this greater general area. Thumbs up for that. Should the horrible and terrible event of the dam failure occur and with the observed 6.4 quake, and you being in the middle, it could be considered a success.???
I first hope you are totally wrong for the people. And I hope you are totally correct for us forecasters.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJune 25, 2020 at 5:44 am #9092Observed: M 5.9 – 42 km SE of Hasaki, Japan 2020-06-24 19:47:44 (UTC) 35.457°N 141.151°E 29.3 km depth.
Located 350km/220mls south of your center point.
My watch M 5.8 to M 6.8 34°14’36.98″N 137°22’1.30″E 2020-06-20 to 2020-06-27 less then 100km deep. Radius 160km/100mls.
The observed quake is located 330km/210mls east of my center point.
We are both hunting in the right area, time and strength!
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJune 25, 2020 at 5:32 am #9091Thank you Lester.
This 5.8 is slightly out of the area, meaning it is west of the California and Nevada boarder. It also struck in an active area, and therefore not “unexpected”. BUT my “hunch” was it would be east of the swarm of quakes currently rumbling and near the highways of ( US 6 and State Route 375 ). This quake is part of that long curve of quakes that started in Ridge Crest and then meandered north and then turned east into Nevada. So I am kind of waiting for another advancement eastward. This 5.8 could be a for shock to an unexpected quake further east. The 7.4 could also possibly be the unexpected quake but I think it is from the other 7.4 a few days back. However, the Caribbean Islands should become very active during the next 2 weeks from this 7.4.
A quick observational forecast indicates quake activity should occur in Colorado or New Mexico, likely near the boarder between them, in the next 10 days between a 4.4 and a 5.4.
Possibly a 5.5 to 6.5 in the center of the Gulf of California / Cortez Sea 28°33’37.43″N 112°36’51.80″W next 10 days.
I will make a full official forecast in the next day or two when I have time.
I am still watching for an unexpected 5.8+ in the next few days.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJune 24, 2020 at 10:18 pm #9085Counselor, close and good call. But California an much of North America is slower and weaker when compared to other areas on the planet. This is why I stay mostly focused on N America and am tying to learn the nuances of it. When I see the key to narrowing in forecasts in N. America, I most certainly will let everyone know.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJune 24, 2020 at 3:16 pm #9078Oh this sucks so far…You are in the middle of the quakes, both too low and too high. The 5.4 is almost there. BUT there is still some more time. I would call this a success because you have captured the range of magnitudes, just not the exact magnitude.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJune 24, 2020 at 3:07 am #9075I knew today would be big.
Observed: M 7.4 – south of the Kermadec Islands 2020-06-18 12:49:53 (UTC) 33.294°S 177.838°W 10.0 km depth came into play today.
So I thought it would push north to Japan…but not today…and it still could.
Observed today: M 7.4 – 12 km SSW of Santa María Zapotitlán, Mexico 2020-06-23 15:29:05 (UTC) 16.029°N 95.901°W 26.3 km depth. And the Tensor data is super strange. I am not experienced enough to know what it means. Tensor link: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000ah9t/moment-tensor
So today’s 7.4 is likely from June 18’s 7.4 near New Zealand.
Now go to google earth and follow this, and it is eye opening. Draw a circle from the New Zealand quake out to 40,000km/24,850mls and save it. Then do the same for the Mexican quake, same distance. Where the intersect up north, measure over to Mount Ebeko Volcano which is erupting. Ebeko is only 170km/106mls from the intersection point. Mnt Ebeko is only .00425% off from a perfect triangle. I must give credit to Dutch for pointing this out. But I will add my thoughts that this triangular pattern is what Dr. Hoagland spoke of planetary geometry involving tetrahedrals.
This will lead me to post a new “Watch”, but not forecast for the South Sandwich Islands, 5.0 to 7.0 activity next 7 days.
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratJune 21, 2020 at 6:20 pm #9047JEC, good call. This is not my forecast area, but we had two waves of energy roll through Europe. One came from Iran/Turkey area on 2020-06-15 through 17 and the other was the north end of the Red Sea. Timing looks correct for Iceland being struck.
On June 18, the Icelandic Science Board of the Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management met to discuss potential eruption and a day later all the quakes went of.
I don’t see any more seismic energy rolling toward Iceland, so any new “larger” quakes are likely a sign of volcanic activity rather then an typical aftershock.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJune 21, 2020 at 7:46 am #9042Ok I had to double check the UTC times on my forcast and the 4.4 quake. It was 2020-06-21 01:22:00 UTC at time of my forecast and the quake struck at 2020-06-21 04:55:21 (UTC). So I was about 3 1/2 hours before the quake struck. I can do accounting fore millions of dollars but one little UTC calculation is just about a train wreck for me. LOL
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJune 21, 2020 at 7:22 am #9041This area I forecasted should go off first, then I can make the next forecast, likely near Hokkaido.
AND hot off the press…or maybe magma chamber.
Observed: M 4.4 – 67 km SSW of ?yama, Japan 2020-06-21 04:55:21 (UTC) 34.022°N 137.985°E 306.2 km depth. USGS.
I already have points for my center point being 322 feet away from this quake. LOL But it is not the one I am after, too deep. But the depth adds .6 to the magnitude making it a 5.0. So we should see a 4.5 to 5.5 strike near and soon. I’m looking for 5.8 to 6.8. But as dutch says, watch because the next quake could be 1 magnitude higher and that would mean a 6.0 could strike.
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratJune 20, 2020 at 6:07 pm #9036Lester, observationally speaking, right now, there is only 4.0 activity rolling around in North America. If your spot gets struck at 5.9 or larger, then that is the unexpected larger quake I am watching for. So I think I see larger energy rolling in, but do not know where it will strike. Your method indicates an area and size and time period, all of which overlaps my watch watch criteria of M5.9 to M7.2 from June 20 – 30, though your area is just west of the plate boundary but is several hundred miles east from the continental shelf.
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratMay 30, 2020 at 11:43 pm #8969LOL guys. I am orginal if nothing else. LOL
Yes, it just looks this way from a very wide perspective. What got me thinking are the small quakes going off. I am thinking “bell”, first the big gong then vibration sound gets weaker and weaker. The gong period is over, fore now. Not very scientific, but it could be start.
I am also going to take a week+ off of forecasting and start loading up my EQ3D with older select data and determine if any of those large unexpected quakes we just had cam from the West Pacific and the energy rolled under the ocean and under the North American Plate, meaning it “snuck” past Washington, Oregon, and California, then went off far inland. I DO NOT LIKE SURPRISES like we just had the last 2 months. It might be that observational forecasting will not be able to forecast them, but knowing that the energy is there/coming might allow a different forecasting technique to narrow in on potential locations…so that is where I am headed.
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