Forum Replies Created
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5 ptsdsgApril 24, 2017 at 6:26 pm #1386
Image now updated: https://twitter.com/dsg_io/status/856572915323633665/photo/1
Score: 05 ptsdsgApril 24, 2017 at 5:27 pm #1385update to #3 location, radius and magnitude
1. Location: South America
Lat: 0°57’56.25″N Lon: 75°29’13.10″W Radius: 1000 km Mag: 4.5-6.22. Location: South of Caspian Sea
Lat: 34° 0’0.00″N Lon: 51°59’60.00″E Radius: 1000 km Mag: 0-5.53. Location: South and near Wright Volcanic Center, within/near Kermadec Islands / Trench (Potential within New Zealand waters)
Lat: 32° 1’14.37″S Lon: 179°11’36.61″W Radius: 700 km Mag: 4.9-5.94. Location: North Pacific – within or near North American Pacific Convergent Boundary
Lat: 50°55’35.29″N Lon: 172° 0’35.30″W Radius: 1000 km Mag: 6.5-7.5+5. Location: Pacific – Within or near Mid-American Trench, and Pacific Cocos Transform Boundary
Lat: 19°53’1.66″N Lon: 109°17’47.71″W Radius: 1000 km Mag: 6-7.4Timing 4/21/17 – 4/27/17, 23:59 utc
no change in image: https://twitter.com/dsg_io/status/856182359108014080/photo/1
Score: 05 ptsdsgApril 23, 2017 at 4:29 pm #1374Update to magnitude again, this is potential scenario #2. Sorry Again, fumble fingers today. Left off the 6.2 for SA and adjust NZ area.
1. Location: South America
Lat: 0°57’56.25″N Lon: 75°29’13.10″W Radius: 1000 km Mag: 4.5-6.22. Location: South of Caspian Sea
Lat: 34° 0’0.00″N Lon: 51°59’60.00″E Radius: 1000 km Mag: 0-5.53. Location: South and near, within Tonga Arc and Kermadec Islands / Trench (Potential within New Zealand waters)
Lat: 27°55’33.71″S Lon: 177°30’15.13″W Radius: 1000 km Mag: 0-5.24. Location: North Pacific – within or near North American Pacific Convergent Boundary
Lat: 50°55’35.29″N Lon: 172° 0’35.30″W Radius: 1000 km Mag: 6.5-7.5+5. Location: Pacific – Within or near Mid-American Trench, and Pacific Cocos Transform Boundary
Lat: 19°53’1.66″N Lon: 109°17’47.71″W Radius: 1000 km Mag: 6-7.4Timing Extended: 4/27/17, 23:59 utc
updated image: https://twitter.com/dsg_io/status/856182359108014080/photo/1
Score: 05 ptsdsgApril 23, 2017 at 4:28 pm #1373Update to magnitude again, this is potential scenario #2. Sorry!
1. Location: South America
Lat: 0°57’56.25″N Lon: 75°29’13.10″W Radius: 1000 km Mag: 4.5-62. Location: South of Caspian Sea
Lat: 34° 0’0.00″N Lon: 51°59’60.00″E Radius: 1000 km Mag: 0-5.53. Location: South and near, within Tonga Arc and Kermadec Islands / Trench (Potential within New Zealand waters)
Lat: 27°55’33.71″S Lon: 177°30’15.13″W Radius: 1000 km Mag: 0.4.9, possibly up to 5.24. Location: North Pacific – within or near North American Pacific Convergent Boundary
Lat: 50°55’35.29″N Lon: 172° 0’35.30″W Radius: 1000 km Mag: 6.5-7.5+5. Location: Pacific – Within or near Mid-American Trench, and Pacific Cocos Transform Boundary
Lat: 19°53’1.66″N Lon: 109°17’47.71″W Radius: 1000 km Mag: 6-7.4Timing Extended: 4/27/17, 23:59 utc
updated image: https://twitter.com/dsg_io/status/856182359108014080/photo/1
Score: 05 ptsdsgApril 23, 2017 at 2:36 pm #1372Update to magnitude and timing:
1. Location: South America
Lat: 0°57’56.25″N Lon: 75°29’13.10″W Radius: 1000 km Mag: 0-4.92. Location: South of Caspian Sea
Lat: 34° 0’0.00″N Lon: 51°59’60.00″E Radius: 1000 km Mag: 6.5-7.5+3. Location: South and near, within Tonga Arc and Kermadec Islands / Trench (Potential within New Zealand waters)
Lat: 27°55’33.71″S Lon: 177°30’15.13″W Radius: 1000 km Mag: 0.4.9, possibly up to 5.24. Location: North Pacific – within or near North American Pacific Convergent Boundary
Lat: 50°55’35.29″N Lon: 172° 0’35.30″W Radius: 1000 km Mag: Null, 0-25. Location: Pacific – Within or near Mid-American Trench, and Pacific Cocos Transform Boundary
Lat: 19°53’1.66″N Lon: 109°17’47.71″W Radius: 1000 km Mag: 6-7.4Timing Extended: 4/27/17, 23:59 utc
updated image: https://twitter.com/dsg_io/status/856153699420340224/photo/1
Score: 05 ptsdsgApril 20, 2017 at 2:51 pm #1342Updating:
Location: Sea of Okhotsk area, Sea of Patience, near Thailand, Bay of Bengal area – on or near Eurasian North American Subduction Zonelat: 48°43’11.03″N lon: 142°50’43.86″E / 1,000km radius
Magnitude: 5.0 – 7.5
Timing: 4/20/17 2:05pm – 4/31/17 11:59pm UTC
Score: 05 ptsdsgApril 20, 2017 at 2:49 pm #1341Reactivating Forecast:
Location: Near or around the Eurasian Philippine Convergent Boundary, North American Pacific Convergent Boundary and the North American Philippine Boundary. Location coordinates are near Tokyo.
lat: 34°54’1.17″N lon: 138°37’28.94″E / 500km radius
Magnitude: 6.0 – 6.9
Timing: 4/20/17 2:248 pm – 4/24/17 11:59pm UTC
Score: 05 ptsdsgApril 18, 2017 at 6:20 pm #1321Correction to magnitude, removed ceiling for this potential deep quake.
Location: North Atlantic Ocean, Norwegian Sea, near Kolbeinsey Ridge Vent Field
lat: 69° 0’0.00″N lon: 16°31’0.19″W / 500km radius
Magnitude: 6.5 – 7.5+
Timing: 4/18/17 6:15pm – 4/22/17 11:59pm UTC
Score: 05 ptsdsgApril 17, 2017 at 8:20 pm #1312Adjusting Magnitude Range until blot echoes demonstrate signals:
Location: Thailand, Bay of Bengal area – near Australian Sunda convergent boundary and transform boundary
lat: 15° 6’58.22″N lon: 93°10’3.15″E / 500km radius
Magnitude: 6.5 – 7.5+
Timing: 4/16/17 12:02am – 4/19/17 11:59pm UTC
Score: 05 ptsdsgApril 17, 2017 at 8:16 pm #1311Change: Extending timing for another few days until the blot echo in the region produces additional signals.
Location: Near Chanman Transform Boundary, Erasian Indian Convergent Boundary or Eurasian Arabian Convergent Boundary.
lat: 28°49’60.00″N lon: 63°50’0.00″E / 500km radius
Estimated Mag: 6+
Timing: 4/14/17 6:50pm – 4/22/17 11:59pm UTC
Score: 05 pts5 ptsdsgApril 15, 2017 at 11:27 pm #1285Apologies again, lets try this one more time, updated to 4.6 link below.
1) M 4.6 successfully predicted by dsg on 4/14/2017 4:35am
2) a link to all of your forecast postings that were active during that time.New Caledonia:
Forecast: https://quakewatch.net/forums/topic/dsg-41417-317-cst/ (please note an error in the post title that was previously corrected for correct time of 4:35am)USGS Actual: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us10008ht0#map
Note: Using the New Caledonia distance model, was able to reduce the radius to an estimated 75 miles from actual earthquake, or 121.16km.
Score: 05 ptsdsgApril 15, 2017 at 6:53 pm #1269Apologies, my copy and paste failed. Correction to Location Description
Location: Near Chanman Transform Boundary, Erasian Indian Convergent Boundary or Eurasian Arabian Convergent Boundary.
lat: 28°49’60.00″N lon: 63°50’0.00″E / 500km radius
Estimated Mag: 6+
Timing: 4/14/17 6:50pm – 4/17/17 11:59pm UTC
Score: 05 pts5 ptsdsgApril 14, 2017 at 9:58 pm #1246Update on Timing: This earthquake forecast follows the local storm in Bay of Bengal area, which is estimated to make landfall just after 1pm, 4/15/17 UTC.
Score: 0
The anticipated timing of earthquake will begin a heightened watched from 4/15/17 through 4/19/17, over a four day period when the storm enters the location coordinates.5 ptsdsgApril 14, 2017 at 9:34 pm #1245Thank you for the guidance. I have been searching for the best method to approach, and your insight helps to guide me.
I have done a great deal of research in the North and South Pacific for the last five years, as well as Africa. My ultimate goal was to refine the method I am using to get as narrow radius as possible, with the tools from the Disaster Prediction App and the QW and Space Weather News websites – and try to hit each of the major alert zones, and also chase down all tropical cyclones. My process is a slow and manual at the moment, using a variety of tools and maps/data sets across 7 platforms and some new technology. This one hit (and all the other misses) has helped me to reduce the actual time it takes for each one, and modify the formula with every error I have made.
I’ve been super close in geography on many, but have had excessive failure in magnitude estimation, so I am right in the heart of building a scale (from this New Caledonia model) to work with, that should ensure greater accuracy. One challenge – was the few I posted today – I lengthened the time-frame to 14 days, even though I interpreted the data to be just 48 hours or less away, and another, just 7 days away. Would you recommend that on those where the model suggests a certain timing, for me to call that out specifically – and still leave the main forecast/danger zone for the full week or two weeks? I like your idea of the daily max. Thanks to you guys for having patience with me while I stumble through trying to formulate a posting protocol that works well for communicating the variables.
Score: 05 pts5 pts5 ptsdsgApril 14, 2017 at 9:18 am #1237Extending Forecast Timing: 4/12/17 11:22pm – 4/30/17 11:59pm UTC
Rationale: Australia quake occurred yesterday – 4/13/17 to the northeast, now there is in-bound weather on the way to coordinates. Very interested and curious to what makes a blot echo manifest and what models work for predicting blot echos, as well as the big surface earthquakes.
Score: 05 ptsdsgApril 13, 2017 at 12:42 am #1232Update: False alarm on – USGS Feed had shown no New Zealand Earthquakes all day. Please verify if you need to – however separate new app downloaded from GeoNet shows quakes are still ongoing. Apologize for the rookie oversight, but all data streams for NZ were void of data sets for New Zealand. GeoNet online-pc was even void of data. Obviously a serious glitch, thank goodness for each and everyone. I will need to refer to GeoNet’s iphone app in the future to document all activity with New Zealand.
Score: 05 pts -
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