Forum Replies Created
-
5 ptsdsgApril 12, 2017 at 2:03 pm #1221
CR – a second note – I just double checked on the member-bit and you are right. I would really love to see your big win over there, and even with a small monthly membership you could do it. Also – if you have a credit card or bank debit card, you can interface with the paypal system without having an account, see it here: https://quakewatch.net/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=1 — at the bottom of the screen if you click on the Paypal button, it takes you to the Paypal login page where at the very bottom, it states “Pay with debit or check card” – which lets you process payment as a Paypal guest should it interest you or be applicable to your situation.
Also – checked on Tonga and was super-happy to see the close proximity but was incorrect on magnitude, it was a 4.9 instead of a 5.0. Lesson Learned – Tonga Arc’s enormity swallowed up the potential. Have a good day CR!
Score: 05 ptsdsgApril 12, 2017 at 1:30 pm #1220Thanks CR, I’ve been too busy chasing down future EQ and haven’t had time to look at Tonga but will do so. I wanted to compliment you on reminding us all that the radius should be as small as possible, so that we can take the practice model into real-world applications that save lives. You really helped me revisit that thought through your posts, by raising the benchmark.
Yes I want to be a lifetime member and it is in my budget in the coming 30-45 days, would love to see you there as well!
I didn’t realize that you had to have a membership to post there, I just have the basic membership. But I am so proud for you on your hit!
Score: 05 ptsdsgApril 12, 2017 at 1:23 pm #1219Thanks Lester I appreciate that, I was very proud and excited for CR’s target and wanted to celebrate his activity. Good to meet you, and thank you so much. CR reminded me of an important fact – and that is to get the radius as small as possible so that the real world practice can actually transform to saving lives. He should be commended for his approach and sets a fine example. 🙂
Score: 05 pts5 pts5 ptsdsgApril 10, 2017 at 10:25 pm #1199Sorry CR: Here is the link: https://quakewatch.net/forums/forum/success/
Score: 05 ptsdsgApril 10, 2017 at 10:24 pm #1198HELLO CR, I just had my first one come through too. I was reading about where you should post your win at, since you were the first one in the forum to to get an alert on target. We are supposed to make the same post you made here, but in this area, so that Mr. Ben can see. I am going to post mine there, but wanted you to know you should post there as well, and congrats on being the first forum member to get an accurate forecast!
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 15 pts5 pts5 ptsdsgApril 3, 2017 at 9:02 pm #1134Updating forecast, DSG March 27, 2017 12:55 – with only changes being in lowering magnitude down to 4+
Location: Pacific Ocean
Updated Forecast Watch Area Extended – following coordinates and 1000km radius from an additional watch point of: lat: 16° 8’28.48″N lon: 137°25’45.89″W.
lat: 22°53’53.81″N lon: 150°31’13.37″W
lat: 22°45’14.39″N lon: 134°52’30.08″W – expanded region to the East of original watch-zone
lat: 0°58’47.19″N lon: 134°57’27.69″W – expanded region to the East of original watch-zone
lat: 0°36’24.24″N lon: 150°18’21.61″WMag: 4+
Forecast Watch Time: extending initial Forecast Watch time which was 3-27-17 through 4-2-17. Updated now to new watch time of 3-27-17 to 4-4-17.
Formal UTC Watch Time now 3/27/2017 6:55 PM (18:55) UTC through 4/4/2017 11:59 PM (23:59).
Rationale: 4/3 Africa discharge event of 6.1 effects model and magnitude scale for this target.
Score: 05 ptsdsgApril 2, 2017 at 6:12 pm #1119Updating forecast, DSG March 27, 2017 12:55 – with only changes being in magnitude and radius of vulnerability watch point.
Updates to forecast DSG March 27, 2017 12:55pm
Location: Pacific Ocean
Updated Forecast Watch Area Extended – following coordinates and 1000km radius from an additional watch point of: lat: 16° 8’28.48″N lon: 137°25’45.89″W.
lat: 22°53’53.81″N lon: 150°31’13.37″W
lat: 22°45’14.39″N lon: 134°52’30.08″W – expanded region to the East of original watch-zone
lat: 0°58’47.19″N lon: 134°57’27.69″W – expanded region to the East of original watch-zone
lat: 0°36’24.24″N lon: 150°18’21.61″WMag: 7+
Forecast Watch Time: extending initial Forecast Watch time which was 3-27-17 through 4-2-17. Updated now to new watch time of 3-27-17 to 4-4-17.
Formal UTC Watch Time now 3/27/2017 6:55 PM (18:55) UTC through 4/4/2017 11:59 PM (23:59).
Rationale: 4-1-17 increased potential for solar activity as noted in prior notes, coupled with atmospheric vulnerabilities and regional charging patterns. Not trying to win anything, just committed to figuring it out and helping, if possible.
Score: 05 pts5 ptsdsgMarch 31, 2017 at 5:49 pm #1107Expanded Radius of original alert, and timing as noted below:
Location: Norway Area, 60.310277, 6.315000, (increased from 500km radius) 1500km radius
Mag: 3.0+
Timing Danger Zone depending upon solar activity: (originally from 3/26/17 through 4/1/17)
3/26/17 through 2017-04-06 23:59:59 UTC
Score: 05 ptsdsgMarch 30, 2017 at 1:02 pm #1098Updates to forecast DSG March 27, 2017 12:55pm
Location: Pacific Ocean
Updated Forecast Watch Area Extended – following coordinates and 500km radius from an additional watch point of: lat: 16° 8’28.48″N lon: 137°25’45.89″W.
lat: 22°53’53.81″N lon: 150°31’13.37″W
lat: 22°45’14.39″N lon: 134°52’30.08″W – expanded region to the East of original watch-zone
lat: 0°58’47.19″N lon: 134°57’27.69″W – expanded region to the East of original watch-zone
lat: 0°36’24.24″N lon: 150°18’21.61″WMag: 4.0+
Forecast Watch Time: extending initial Forecast Watch time which was 3-27-17 through 4-2-17. Updated now to new watch time of 3-27-17 to 4-4-17.
Formal UTC Watch Time now 3/27/2017 6:55 PM (18:55) UTC through 4/4/2017 11:59 PM (23:59).
Rationale Note: Territory has the potential for 1 or more earthquakes. Conservative magnitude due to current solar conditions, however with 4-1-17 increased potential for solar activity, the magnitude of the epicenter would grow proportionate to solar activity. A USGS earthquake history for this general region exists towards the nadir of solar minimum activity last seen in 2008. I folded in new mathematical updates to the current forecast model I am using, based upon geographic accuracy but with the 500km radius errors made in South America, Zimbabwe/South Africa area, and Afghanistan forecasts from 3-25-17 to 3-3-17. I have run the model 6x and logged about 8 hours of midnight-oil on just this one area, with these same results for the extended watch zone as included in this update/extension. Model is also producing updated coordinates of lat: 16° 8’28.48″N lon: 137°25’45.89″W as an area of vulnerability.
Score: 05 pts5 ptsdsgMarch 27, 2017 at 1:25 am #1076Thank you, albeit this first attempt/process was colossal failure. Please be patient with me, it is kind of like driving a new car – the steering is really tight and the brakes are pretty sensitive.
Will strive to improve, using new technology and new software/math for the effort at large and was trained differently on longtitude and latitude expressions, as my system uses the full coordinates. Your forum assists me greatly – for every failure, I return to the basic math and rework methodology. You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.
Score: 0
Thanks for all you do.5 ptsdsgMarch 27, 2017 at 1:13 am #1075Note on related event: Magnitude: 4.5 Depth:117.71 , Location: 24km WSW of Ashkasham, Afghanistan, Lat: 36.6336 Lon: 71.2713 or 36.633600, 71.271300
Date: Sun Mar 26 2017 09:11:18 GMT-0500 (Central Daylight Time)
Improvement note: Actual forecast point began at 7.6554, 71.9091, but still 198 km away and certainly not the right magnitude. Still finding sea-legs. This forecast was confusing and I will not use triangle points because it just confuses matters – too messy. There still may be activity of greater magnitude that occurs here. I will fold the failure back into the mathematics and try again.
Score: 05 ptsdsgMarch 27, 2017 at 12:55 am #1074Event Note On: 2017-03-26 17:37 UTC 4.5 508.54 South of the Fiji Islands -179.22 -24.43 or -17.747000,-178.302000
Note on Forecast: -17.843045, 177.008455 / 12.21 KM off, and held back on Mag due to being conservative. Still may see activity by 3/28/16, but would have preferred to accurately forecast the noted event today. Will revisit methodology to improve accuracy. To build a warning system that saves lives, accuracy and mathematical precision will not allow for incorrect position or coordinates.
Score: 05 pts5 pts5 pts5 ptsdsgMarch 24, 2017 at 10:35 pm #1049Ben, Your US forecast of California is an incredible accomplishment – the programs you are developing provide me with much hope for the evolution of forecasting. The tools you have put together help to clear a path for education and knowledge, as well as the open-source environment. Thank you to you and your wife for your commitment to public service safety and providing a teaching opportunity on so many important sciences.
Score: 0 -
|
