The volcano activity is ramping up. Thank you Ben! for the comments on USGS and data fixing they are doing. Every other day, a 5.+ volcano earthquake is happening in Kileau. Each time a little bigger as the volcano subsides. Looks like it could be building up to some more major event. Also the deep earthquakes deeper than 3KM are growing. Additionally, earthquake numbers are growing..from 400 a day, to todays over 600 since June 07. This is a learning opportunity about this particular system.
Two 5.3 earthquakes and hundreds of smaller quakes (5.3s on May 29 and 30) indicate increasing explosive potential. Also some of the small quakes are near the Puna Geothermal Venture wells. I am not sure anyone can tell if a well covered with lava or impacted by the heat of the earth is generating quakes, the ones are at the 3KM plus depth ranges in the general area of the facility. This is also the area of the slope boundary for the Hilina Slump, per one geographic study which indicated the approx. depth of 3.5 KM as boundry depth for the slide area. This is also the area of the most vigprious lava fissures–which also have tremors assocated with them as magma flows into the rift zone. Very hot lava is flowing radiply. Nothing to be done, just watch and wait to see when the volcanic activity dies down..days, months or ? However, the unrest still indicated the possibility of an explosive event from the volcano, again in the next week or so.
Lester, USGS looks to be managing the earthquake data, several sites have no recent reports, and I know there is a high level of smaller quakes. Looking on the web, I now see a lot of rather official reports that the US government has found USGS actually manipulating data. I sure hope earthquakes such as could be caused by a geothermal (green) energy source is not one of them! Just my two cents when I find chunks of EQ suddenely showing up in blocks on the USGS reporting site, and NOTHING on some sites. Surely the recent 4 somethings should have shown up outside of USGS! Or it could be just overloading all sites with too much data..thats possible I guess. But I see lots of small reports on EQ for Alaska, etc..just not in areas where we know there is activity, S. California or Hawaii.
18 quakes at that level over 3 in the past three days. Now, if NOT a tectonic earthquake, say a volcanic one…does it count for the successful prediction?
Lester, watching carefully as you know. I am looking at the eq patterns..from Great Crack to East Rift Zone, and it concerning. From Hawaii yesterday PM: This is a Civil Defense message for Monday, May 28 at 5:42 p.m.
The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center reports the earthquake that occurred at approximately 5:42 p.m. was NOT large enough to cause a tsunami for the Island of Hawaii. There is NO tsunami threat for the island of Hawaii.
Preliminary data indicates that the earthquake measuring a magnitude of 4.4 was centered in the Hilina region of Kilauea.
I think activity is ramping up..and a 7 should hit, maybe explosively. JEC
The Kileaua volcano continues to be active with lava flowing to the lower rift zone. Deflation continues, and explosive activity continues with a 4+ event in the crater most recently, within 24 hours. Larger earthquakes continue in the 3 -4 ranges. The event is not over, as lava from the new eruption has not reached the rift zone. The Puna Geothermal well heads may also become players as the lava continues to slowing creep towards the facility. The past two days, the Hawaii Civil Defense has purposely not mentioned the situation, only saying on 5/24 the site was Stable. From lava maps, the lava is at at least one well head. See http://www.geothermal-energy.org/pdf/IGAstandard/WGC/1995/2-Gardner.pdf
for map of where wells are..along the rift line of the 1955 eruption. This is also very close to where the lava has moved to; lava ponding also an issue. See Hawaii HVO site for mapping of lava locations, updated daily. Not sure if explosion from the PGV area counts for earthquake predictions! Its explosive, not earthquake.
Blot echos in the west pacific are indicating a northerly component, as two are over the islands to the south and west of Hawaii. No blot echo under Hawaii at this time.
Hawaii officials say lava from Kilauea volcano has entered the property of a geothermal plant on the Big Island.
Hawaii County spokeswoman Janet Snyder says the lava entered the property late Sunday or early Monday. She says it stalled behind a berm on the property boundary.
She says it’s 300 yards (274 meters) from the nearest geothermal well pad and hasn’t moved.
The plant harnesses energy from the volcano for electricity. Underground wells bring up steam and hot liquid, and the steam feeds a turbine generator.
Plant workers as a precaution earlier this month removed 50,000 gallons (190,000 liters) of a flammable gas stored at the site.
From JEC: The above was reported last night. Talk about a DARWIN award. The water cooling for the flooded wells, the plant management has confessed if lava overtakes it..will not be possible to inject. No one is mentioning what might happen if the lava HITS the wells. They have 300 yds to go..and while the lava is stalled. 300 yds is cutting pretty close..and the heat from it…..hummmmm..and the spatter. Can people even get near to inject water.and will water evaporate due to temperatures???
The GREAT CRACK a former rift zone huge crack in earth is in the rift zone. http://www.instanthawaii.com/cgi-bin/hi?!55m40S0iaFvbdbtoETuzfa1d0qeEaRvA3Or4ATahf5IaOsdEvkv2C1rjAta0mOIiOMng7Flb2ltlArTif5OsCUn6aaK014r9Ataima1abTeEoTO3bOT4EOuMe9m40N0AjAF1bKf7rdozrmm0nbubof86dlTvETuaezIonUrEvkv43cr7nhTffp1t0Mr5vfOjd8farhobe1naduuboTOebaa3frN5
I think its a pattern..rifting..open cracks..volcano sleeps then starts up again..until cracking breaks off a piece of land. But one side of the rift zone has cracked open..rifting is now going towards NE and fissures have joined or linked into one major fissure. Not much more to say about this event except to wait for more explosions, and hope earthquakes stay in under 5 ranges.
Here is link to the ‘chemical explosion’ which was WSW of the volcano. A 1.9 magnitude. I dont think its the chemical plant as an explosion there would be a LOT bigger I would think..in the 3 ranges..and deep up to 8000 foot(drill depth).
WEll now there are FOUR greater than 4.0 –mostly 5 ranges posted on IRIS..with dates from the 16-20th! Two showed up last night..the 16th and 17th dated ones. I think we are watching crowd management! Good you are watching from your side!! Still no one mentions chemical explosion..its curious first its mentioned, then not and two earthquakes are not posted in the same timeframe. Either there is a problem..or not..but should not be hidden. Also, the thermal image of the crater.they have now replaced with one from 04-2018. Email query from HVO said it was because only three cams were working others broken..BUT why such an OLD image? Certainly they have some from May?!!
Lester, this is the area where there is concern of chemical issues; they NEVER should have built it on an active volcano. DARWIN WINNER of Golden Fleece Award!
Am extremely concerned with the spattering of small EQ to the NE of the Hilina Slump area. Because of the rifting, lava flows..and the pattern of the cracking, if any larger earthquake hits, it could break off. And the amount of fresh lava flowing out of the rift areas..the volcano may reach ground water and have a major burp with EQ. Nowhere can I find much on GPS movement of the ground in the area of concern. All I can see are small equakes on the front slope area..that does not have a “toe” to help control a slide like the Hilina Slump has; area has not released or failed like Hilina. My two cents, people need to get out of the areas below the rift..
Cleveland volcano is restless. CLEVELAND VOLCANO (VNUM #311240)
52°49’20” N 169°56’42” W, Summit Elevation 5676 ft (1730 m)
Current Volcano Alert Level: ADVISORY
Current Aviation Color Code: YELLOW
Turns out the reporting equipment has failed, so they will have to rely on other stations to report, and will miss early warning signals….they are trying to get the devices fixed. Outage due to power failure in area, per comments. The area, 51-54 N and 177-180 ..should be the target for this prediction of a larger quake. Put the bulls eye over or near this volcano and the plate areas.
Nothing on news, but there was a 10K ash event around that time, friday midnight. May 19, 1 a.m.
Hawaiian Volcano Observatory reports an explosive eruption at Kilauea summit occurred at 11:58 p.m. Friday.
The EQ are all pretty much around Killeau volcano, with along the rift zone, epecially near fissure 20, its a very very heavy flow of NEW lava. There is a chemical problem…
a highly flammable chemical that PGV has been slow to move out of the way of approaching lava.
“Governor David Ige announces two proclamations on Kilauea Volcano outbreak:
Giving the county & state authority to move out 55,000 gallons of Pentane, a highly flammable chemical that PGV has been slow to move out of the way of approaching lava. It would also have them take action to prevent geothermal wells from blowing out.
Requesting a presidential disaster declaration so federal funds and resources would be available for the current emergency or if large scale air & sea evacuations are needed.”..so they need to move the stuff but no idea if it exploded.
they are evacuating some people in the lava flow area via helicopter.
This reply was modified 6 years, 7 months ago by JEC. Reason: answer question on stituation
Live feed of some lava chasers..close to running out of gas..in the middle of the rift zones, video taping live to facebook. Darwin award candidates.Interesting to see the shear scope of the rifting, this is not a simple event. Currently, they are rummaging thru a garage to get compressed air to fill their low tires.. HUM..is there electricity to run the equipment? Hope they have a genset or way to power the device. IN middle of the rift events.
This reply was modified 6 years, 7 months ago by JEC. Reason: additional info
THE best description of the BIG ISLANDS fault zones and rifts! What I think is the area that could fail first is the tip just to the north of the hilina slump. That area has not slumped, its straight clifts, and has a trail of earthquakes leading down into the depth, 5KM to 15KM.
The opening rift zones are very active, venting out lava and noise. Now the opening area..are also dropping..is anyone talking about a possible land slide due to this fissure opening? https://youtu.be/2YQweWeln8w
Two earthquake, off the coast and on the NE slope, close together 2+ and 1+ suggest some sort of activity in te slope areas. Fissures on the southern rift area per the news (in the link) mentions deformation.
Also to add to the situation, large moving eddies from the Gulf Stream currents move from east to west over this area, with large circulations, and increased water pressures from central forcing of water columns (my theory). This, if conjoining with solar activity and weather features could be a forcing function in some earthquakes in this area. There is also a fault line.
With a 2 foot slide of the Hilina Slimp due to 6.9 eq, and now this rifting area growing, with ash and potential of explosive eruption, its concerning.
So far the government is saying NO RISK of tsunami, but twitter rumors are flying on the island, which the government is now responding to. How anyone can know the future of this eruption or tsunami risk(if there is a major explosive event) is beyond me. Its like the faux modeling of weather or other events– with inputs of data to make the result what a person wants to see, called science fiction! IF there is an explosive eruption with large earthquake, there will always be a risk of a slide and tsunami. Which could or may not be major, people should be aware and figure out ahead of time..what they would do. It may not happen, but having a plan is smart.
Now USGS listing RED for volcanos eruptive phase.Explosive. And see this info. http://seismo.berkeley.edu/blog/2018/05/07/a-slow-emergency-and-a-sudden-slump.html
slope moved two feet to S/SE due to 6.9 eruption. Currently small earthquakes are shaking the above water S coast line to the south of the areas where lava is outflowing. Its an interesting pattern, from yesterday to today, with fairly evenly placed small quakes all over the face of the island over the slumping area. At the deeper cliff area, at the tip of the island, there is also a lot of small quakes. That area does not have a recent slide, and does not have a ‘toe’ or slump area; its straight deep cliff face.
