Subc0der- no doubt brother, Im with you. I apologize for any confusion I have caused. We need to work together and Im all for that. You’re right, theres not a lot of people you cant have these conversations with. We do need each other. Much love.
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This reply was modified 7 years, 6 months ago by Tayrance Allen.
Look at the timestamp – at my above post: it shows 927pm. That’s UTC time, correct? Which means yesterday at 7pm, it was 12pm noon Cali time. Im on the west coast in California.
SubC0der- I post all of my forecasts here in Quakewatch.net. The only thing I add to twitter is the alert map. That’s the only way I include a photo of the alert area. I take a screen shot on my phone so I have every single alert map Ive ever done with a date and time stamp, if you want to see them. I have zero reason to cheat. If theres a better way to post the alert map, please let me know. Because I asked that question after my very first post.
This reply was modified 7 years, 6 months ago by Tayrance Allen.
SubC0der, no offense taken. You should have, and hopefully will get a shout out.
The 4.0 forecasts are simply a way for me to try to understand what’s going on. When there’s energy building up/ built up, the larger quakes seem to occur. So when there’s less energy, lesser quakes occur. I rather practice with and learn in those lulls.
For the 6.0, what was questionable about it?
I posted it with hopes the management would let me know if its considered a hit or miss, I even stated that in my post.
Hi Subc0der,
There is a competition element to this as far as the prize money goes, but aside from that, the goal is to advance this science somehow.
I don’t post everyday, I have typically set small alert areas for a small window of time. If you look at my correct forecasts you’ll see i don’t even use the the maximum alotted areas. Yesterday, aside from Chile, I had successful hits in Fiji, Japan, Russia and New Zealand. I have over 20 correct forecasts although I’ve only posted about half.
As for the shout out, I totally thought you would get that, didn’t expect it but maybe it was because of my small alert window and coverage area. The goal ultimately is to shorten the alert time window, to shrink the alert areas. You said you predicted this Chile quake a week ago but was the area on alert for a whole week? I saw the signs and set my alert two hours before the quake. No disrespect intended, of course. Just stating my side to this.
This reply was modified 7 years, 6 months ago by Tayrance Allen.
I apologize because I’m doing a lot of this from my phone and wasnt able to post the page link, let’s see if this works. I posted this update when my lunch break ended at 12pm noon west coast time
Alert update: 6.0 struck very deep in North Fiji. Full Island added to New Zealand alert that was revised yesterday. Area on high alert for 6.0 and greater, with extremely high chance for +7.0.
Smaller releases possible in current alert of 4.0 -5.9
New Zealand alert started at 4/16/17 19:00UTC time and was due to run for 48 hours. This has been extended an additional 48 with high activity happening below the ground.
New Zealand Alert Update: 4/16/17 19:00UTC time
Full New Zealand island on high alert: 6.0 or greater with high chance of 7.0 or greater event over the next 48 hours.
HookEcho – I posted the photo only to Twitter, then copy and pasted the link into this post.
Ben- is there a better map available that I can use? I called out the specific region, but my star placement was poor.
Thank you both
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