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11 pts11 pts15 ptsCanyonratMay 4, 2020 at 4:31 pm #8790
Good morning Lester, just popping in to say hello. I see an increase in 3.0-3.9 activity the last 10 days in North America. I think that is the end of the 4.0-5.0 activity that was running along side the 6.0 activity from the M 6.6 – 209km W of Chichi-shima, Japan 2020-04-18 08:25:37 (UTC)27.140°N 140.106°E 453.8 km depth.
That 6.6 hit struck Japan with the 6.3, dropping off 4.8 to 5.1 energy in China (not reported) had a small cluster of deep and shallow upper 4.0s in Afghanistan, then a few 4.0′ in the middle east and in a final bang likely ended it’s run with the 6.6 south of Greece on May 2.
The 4.0 energy that was running along side the 6.6 split, the stronger part went north dropping off energy and slammed into Alaska. A second part took the uncommon route under the north Pacific and bumped into California as weakened 3.0ish energy. The importance of this uncommon route is that it might now be “softened up” for new and larger activity in the weeks to come.
I’m still holding that we will see only under M5.0 activity in North America for the next few days. I continue to watch for:
I am watching for any M 3.0+ in Canada as a leading indicator of energy heading south and into the USA and striking with much stronger strength.
I am watching for any M 4.0+ mid north Pacific between the Latitudes N35 and N45 (there abouts) and that would be a leading indicator that stronger energy will strike west coast USA and inland up to 320km/200mls.
And off subject, I told my wife the “cat flap” story, we are servants to our one cat, and we laughed! Thank you.
Score: 0115 ptslesterMay 4, 2020 at 10:16 pm #8792Hey Mark, I’m glad you made an appearance. I thought you may have taken my mannerism towards your methodology as offensive. Far from it my friend, if you are promoting a theory, it is only a good theory if it can sustain critical views or condemnation in the public arena. This is why I stated I was not mocking you, I was testing your resilience under fire as they say. You have been constant with your very informative posts, and your methodology has already played an ace with the 4.8 Syria hit… something I would not have attempted myself.
So saying that, I guess we can agree that we are not exactly on the same “wave” length, and things can get a little “eruptive” at times…LOL. However, I now know that we have one thing in common, we are both cat lovers. I have an original “Ginger Tom” and his mother. I don’t have cat flaps myself, so I just give them a key to let themselves in or out when they wish too.
One last thing, I hope Counselor has a cat… because this is his forecast… 🙂
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratMay 6, 2020 at 3:34 pm #8797Counselor, sorry for popping in on your forecast and getting you and Lester confused. The discussion is still good stuff!
Lester, I never felt or interpreted any ill feelings or disrespect. 🙂
I’ve also thought that earthquake forecasting might be a combination of different methodologies. What we are doing here could be “earth shattering” LOL and I am very serious about it. The weakness in observational forecasting is you must have prior quakes to forecast the next one. Your system uses a much wider (distance) system to forecast the next one. It could be you locate an area of potential unrest and then my system can tell you the energy (strength/magnitude) rolling around in that area.
It could also be that when we see an area that should experience a quake, and it does not happen, and the whole greater area lays calm quiet, we need to ask, did the the area we are watching for build up more pressure, or where we completely wrong? I am currently applying this to the Juan de Fuca right now. It should have rumbled with at least three different 6.0’s in the last month, but only had 2.0ish quakes. I forecasted one of those and was watching for the others as “tell tails” to strike. Even Dutch was watching for larger energy then I was. So if when we do have a quake out there and it goes off WAY bigger/stronger then we expected, then we have an understanding why.
I’ve been creating a review of all my forecast misses and will have it out in the next few days.
Peace and health to all of us!
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