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11 ptsCounselorOctober 29, 2017 at 4:48 pm #2974
Hello Hook and Lester,
Hope you guys are doing ok. I was wondering what you guys thought about that rare set of quakes near Frank Josef land in North Pole region?
Curious to know whether you guys had been eyeing that spot yourselves?
Lester- wanted to know if you are aiming for enough stastical hits versus misses using your method. I lost count of how many posts you’ve made, but it is feeling like you are aiming for a certain number perhaps?
Score: 0115 ptslesterOctober 30, 2017 at 1:27 pm #2976Hi Counselor,
Yes, these forecasts sure do mount up don’t they 😉 … if you have been monitoring me, then statistically speaking you will know I have hit more than I have missed, but the mags are not making the grade at the moment! Sometimes you have to take the opportunity if it arises e.g. Two significant signals in the ACE MAG data today at 07:56 UTC – 09:43 UTC. Using my method, these times correlate to Dawn / Sunrise on 72.430’W – 40.970’S Puerto Montt, Chile… normally I would forecast 5.5+ for this region, after all it is Chile. But likely as not it will be a 4+ and I will miss out again if I post a forecast accordingly!. Lets keep an eye on this location and see what happens 🙂I believe the “Franz Josef Land” events caught everybody by surprise, but here’s the interesting part. The Franz Josef epicentres have been in constant daylight since 13th February, the first true night contact after this long period occurred on 28th October !!. I made comment with my Pacific Antarctic Ridge forecast about a possible spectral frequency change instigating a seismic event… a shock to the system so to speak. I was addressing my chosen location on Southern latitudes… no reason why this doesn’t work in the North too !
I reviewed the data in your other thread, and believe it has potential to be a sound hypothesis. The idea of TEC / Moon Terminator interactions is not to dissimilar to what I have described above. The approaching threshold will have longer visible frequencies, energy output will be different to that which is within the moon’s proximity… Hook probably has a better idea how interactions may be possible.
You will have to see if you can find a similar occurrence again to confirm the interaction occurs at distance, because the down side is the terminators distance to target i.e. Dominican Republic. Current statistics suggest this hypothesis is in your favour, the last event in the Dominican Republic of similar magnitude, occurred on April 3rd… this was also a 4.8 magnitude event.Whatever the outcome… well spotted 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterOctober 30, 2017 at 9:39 pm #2978Counselor,
Here’s something that you will either find mildly amusing, or sympathetic towards my forecasting efforts. I noted two times relating to Chile in the previous post (as you have seen). Well I did the same thing on October 21st, found two ACE contacts at 09:21 UTC and 10:31 UTC. These times correlated with Sunset / Dusk on 127.340’E – 3.530’S Pulau Buru, Indonesia… I assume you saw this forecast, titled Indonesia ?.After I finished my post to you, I went back to checking today’s contact signals, and found a 10:32 UTC contact. This again matched Dusk in Pulau Buru, so I renewed said forecast at 14:15 UTC… I assume you have also seen this too ?
At 17:12 UTC, a 5.7 occurred in Central Peru… here’s the catch in my usual format…
Sunset on 127.340’E – 3.530’S Pulau Buru, Indonesia … 09:21 UTC, Oct 21
Dawn on 74.693’W – 10.736’S Satipo, Central Peru (5.7 epicentre) … 09:21 UTC, Oct 21Dusk on ,,,,,,,, – ,,,,,,,, Pulau Buru, Indonesia … 10:31 UTC, Oct 21
Sunrise on ,,,,,,, – ,,,,,,,, Satipo, Central Peru … 10:31 UTC, Oct 21Dusk on ,,,,,,, – ,,,,,,,, Pulau Buru, Indonesia … 10:32 UTC, Oct 30
Sunrise on ,,,,,,, – ,,,,, Satipo, Central Puru … 10:32 UTC, Oct 30I know I’m on the right train… I just keep getting off at the wrong stop !. If more people got on board, I’m sure it would be an easy enough process to figure out which were the “right stops”. I encourage all, to test this data using timeanddate.com and suncalc.net … If anybody believes I am randomly selecting locations, to forecast for their entertainment value… they are very much mistaken !
BTW – Solar Noon on the 5.7 epicentre in Peru, occurred yesterday (29th) at 16:44 UTC… this time matches one of your T&D images !
Score: 011 ptsCounselorOctober 31, 2017 at 1:26 pm #2980Hi Lester,
Thank you for the comments about my link. Those images are what my eyes have begun focusing in on since conversations with you and Hook. So, work that is inspired in part by your efforts too. Not surprised about how it still ties in with the terminator chains you currents have…and glad that it is because I am still thinking about these terminators when I do attempt to forecast. I tried to keep up with your posts because of how close you would get to an area of a quake. Because of time, I have had to try and redo how I forecast just using the tools through quakewatch again. Had an uptick in migraines lately, and I don’t have the spare time like I did in the summer (sadly). So, it’s nice that I can get inside of a region you, Ben, and Hook (when Hook gets back) may also forecast. I am in need playing the long game now and doing images on my phone just practicing a forecast now since my last.
I did see the Indonesia post and was excited for you. I am hoping to come back more frequently as it gets closer to winter break for the school. Looking forward to matching terminator chains if I can. 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterOctober 31, 2017 at 7:43 pm #2981Counselor,
Thank you for your kind words, my current track record doesn’t really do them justice… but thank you anyway. If it is any help with your forecast practice, I have logged all ACE contacts since October 10th, and hits on 152 – 153’W longitude are ahead by a long shot (one reason I forecast P.A.R)… but this could also be 27 – 28’E. It doesn’t guarantee a seismic contact, but might be worth watching for increased pressure or TEC’s etc.Perhaps when you have more time in winter, we can do a little collaborating… and find us a quake!
Happy Halloween 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterOctober 31, 2017 at 11:11 pm #2983Counselor,
I believe I may have stumbled onto a classic opportunity here… whilst finishing my cup of tea 🙂I don’t know if you have noticed, but the ACE data feed stopped at 19:48 UTC, I have a significant Phi contact logged as 19:48 UTC Oct 25th. when I tested this on two maps, the Sunrise terminator threshold pivots on 147.853’E – 0.910’S Admiralty Islands. Yesterday (30th), the data feed stopped at 17:28 UTC (Sunrise on Kalgin Island, Alaska !), it resumed again at 18:38 UTC, at this time it was Dawn on the same co-ordinates on Admiralty Islands!. I have just run a T sequence and found Sunset at this location occurred “yesterday” at 07:56 UTC. This is the time of a significant contact I referred to you about, related to Chile in my first post above. The contact may also have been significant because the sun was on 56.916’E longitude, this is solar Noon and the same longitude as the 5.8 and 6.0 Franz Josef land events!
I think you should practice on this one, and forecast accordingly if you find future data to be sound… I got a 6.3 today so this will keep me happy for a while 🙂
Score: 011 ptsCounselorNovember 1, 2017 at 3:27 pm #2986Thanks Lester! I will need to sit down and practice this again…hopefully sooner rather than later. I am super stoked about you getting those recent 6+ quakes. I am appreaciating a quiet success of my own…
https://photos.app.goo.gl/137tiUVywlRl2lK92
I was doing a bit of forecasting, but no official post with this image… although bummed I chose not to post, this is still a small victory for me considering my forecasting record. 🙂 Did you see the latest S0 news with the mention of the L shells/ Ionosphere? Ben said new developments with that through ICON, but I can’t help but think of the collective work going on here…
I think you and Hook definitely have something else to add…hopefully we can get some more citizen scientist observations on the board. Maybe I will get lucky with those supporting observations again. 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 1, 2017 at 10:39 pm #2987Oh! Counselor, Why didn’t you post the forecast ?, if you are confident that you have sufficient data suggesting possible seismic activity at these locations… you should post. There is no shame in being wrong before the eyes of others, and its not like you are posting all the time like some people do here 🙂 anyway, you have my congrats on achieving a “personal” best.
I watched SO news today, but my PC is having sound issues… I’ll catch the L shells article again when I get fixed up.
I was considering this morning, reliance on determining locations using ACE data has to be accurate. Our global time difference suggests some of the good contacts will have past through the 6 hour window whilst you are still in bed!. This being the case, I noted a structure in the thete, Bz range with a termination time of 09:10 UTC… consider this as a supporting observation 🙂
I don’t know if you will catch this in time, but checking 09:10 UTC on your map also shows the Dusk (night) threshold on Southern Honshu. At the time of this post, there is a Phi contact at 21:05 UTC on the Ace monitor, it is Sunrise on Southern Honshu… these are the kind of correlations I look for. If more contacts continue over the coming days, then you have accumulated sufficient data to suggest possible seismic activity.
There is a preceding Phi contact at 20:55 UTC, this is Hokkaido… the next location I will be forecasting 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 5, 2017 at 5:40 pm #3010Counselor,
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I ran a T sequence on the 5.4 Grenada, it has Sunset / Dusk times as 21:39 – 22:52 UTC Nov 5. The opposite terminator contact to these times are Dawn / Sunrise on 101.220’E – 5.367’S Mentawai region, South Sumatra. It doesn’t mean an event will occur, but do you have it “covered” if there is ?… just a heads up, could be reminiscent of my Peru / Buru scenario!…115 pts115 ptslesterNovember 5, 2017 at 11:48 pm #3012Chris, my last pitch… 5.0 Pucallpa, Peru
Dawn 09:15 UTC – Sunset Buru 6.3 epicentre 09:15 UTC
Sunrise 10:30 UTC – Dusk Buru 6.3 epicentre 10:30 UTC
Sunset 22:52 UTC – Dusk Grenada 5.4 epicentre 22:52 UTC
…… Sunrise on 101.220’E – 5.367’S Mentawai Region 22:52 UTCIt is working its way to Sumatra !!
Score: 011 pts11 pts11 ptsCounselorNovember 6, 2017 at 5:46 pm #3018Lester,
I have been in deep thought lately about your method and my recent observations. I don’t know if I have asked you before about the magnetometer data versus the ACE Mag contacts you utilize? Are they around the same times?
I think I may have asked about your reference to the connections being spectral, but I wanted to ask (since I have become lost looking through old posts) about the part of the spectrum you are observing? The Radio/IR end, visible light, UV/ ionizing end?
Been feeling pretty good lately and trying to learn as much as I can right now. BTW…do you use a google plus account? Was wondering what your user handle is to send emails. Sometimes I don’t visit this board as often as I check emails.
Score: 011 ptsCounselorNovember 7, 2017 at 12:28 am #3019Ok Lester…a pop in Yongle China may fall under similar observations I was making with the moon, but this looks a solar terminator possibly. I have screen shots that I will organize soon. It looks connected to some magnetometer readings I have from 11/2… the OLR appears to come in a day later in the region, then TEC appears, followed by quake.
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 7, 2017 at 10:19 pm #3022Hey Chris,
You had a close call with that 5.7 Fiji quake 🙁 you missed the mag, but you “where” in the right place… that’s what counts!
The problem with all data formats relating to the sun, is that they are developed to tell you what the “sun is doing”… not the terminator or the moon. The only way to determine the different elements is to compile many hours and days of data, only then can you tease out which contact is related to which element. Plus each contact can lead you to eight different possibilities, so there is also an elimination process. The best way to overcome this is to include a margin of error, like I noticed you had done with your last forecast. The Earth rotates 2 degrees in 8 minutes, this equates to a terrestrial distance of 222.32 km’s or 138.14 miles, so forecasting with a 250 km margin easily covers an 8 minute offset !
The spectral range I have been speculating on is within the border region of visible and Infrared. I am not a scientist, but my own experimentation lead me to this conclusion… contacts are being detected due to a sudden change in frequency. In your fledgling hypothesis, you describe how the TEC anomalies are reacting to the advancing moon terminator threshold. When the threshold reaches the TEC location, it dissipates the anomaly… why is this ?. The TEC has been in moonlight for hours, even up to the threshold point, it is still considered visible moonlight. The only difference is, photons of light at the threshold are being stretched… the frequency of visible light is changing at this point.
Chris… WOW!, I think you just got a hit in P.N.G.
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 7, 2017 at 11:31 pm #3024Chris,
I am extremely pleased for you… you stuck at this, and kept punching out the data, you truly earned a hit
In a small corner of the UK, my family and I are toasting your success tonight
You finally found your “own” key… welcome to the “BIG” room 🙂
Score: 011 ptsCounselorNovember 7, 2017 at 11:39 pm #3025Yes! 🙂
Thanks to all the mental working out I have been doing in here with you guys.
I understand what you are saying about what I am observing. As I work to compile the new observation, I am noticing that I may have been hasty with calling just for the moon. Hopefully, I can get lucky with pointing out/teasing out the details. Part of the process right? 😉 I get it wrong a 1000 times first…
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 8, 2017 at 12:12 am #3026Don’t worry about the wrongs… savour what you have accomplished today. You actually hit 2 targets within 13 hours, you worked and earned Fiji… only prediction protocol denies you official recognition!
I would print out the published quakes on EMSC, and hang them on your wall. They will give you inspiration, and the next time somebody tells you Earthquakes are unpredictable… you will have a strong case to argue 🙂
It is unfortunate that I have developed a lot of miss trust of people, through my many experiences. I don’t really know you, but you portray a passion to do the right thing for the community and humanity… I am therefore pleased to be in good company for a change 🙂
Score: 011 pts115 ptslesterNovember 8, 2017 at 6:47 pm #3031Chris,
I see you made the SO news… and got yourself a rep as a quake hunter 🙂 well done.
You have often told me how your mind works… a significant signal has appeared in the ACE data, and I thought you might want to tag along on this one, and see how my mind works!
If you miss this in the next few hours, you can catch it in the 24 hour window. There is a spike in the EPAMp data at 14:45 UTC, the trace for 1 hour either side of the spike is stable (instability after contact usually means entering the dark zone!). The spike is in more than one trace, so it has formed from contact with a high energy source, if we relate this to the terminator… higher energies are more associated with Dawn / Sunrise. Any anomaly within the lithosphere will be rotating East with the Earth, the Dawn / Sunrise thresholds are heading West. If one of these thresholds has made contact with an anomaly, it is not going to want to let it go… similar to trying to pulling two magnets apart. The wavelength connection will eventually be stretched to the limit, and a backlash reaction will occur when contact is finally broken. The terminator returns to equilibrium, like a stretched rubber band returning to its moulded form… and the anomaly retains the energy from last contact.
Because I believe this to be the terminator and a product of the sun, I deduct 8 minutes from the recorded time making it 14:37 UTC. There are only 2 usual suspects matching this time on the Dawn / Sunrise threshold. One is the Yukon territories, Canada which had a 4+ two days ago on approx 140’W (same longitude as Dawn at this time!)… and the other is Sunrise in West Coast California, which also extends into Montana.
Preceding the contact spike, you will notice an increase in proton levels commencing at 12:00 UTC. When I look at my map at this time, I see that the centre of the moon is in the longitude proximity of West Coast California… this being the moon, I do not deduct 8 minutes.
The longitude of the moon at 12:00 UTC = 121.500’W, if I triangulate this longitude with the Sunrise contact in CA at 14:37 UTC… I end up on 121.500’W – 36.848 San Juan Bautista / Hollister…
Similar moon / terminator combinations are going to occur over the next 3 days, as the moon transits the T belts moving from the night region into day. Another combination opportunity usually occurs when the moon is entering the region of Sunset / Dusk.
It doesn’t necessarily mean an event will happen here, the contact is new to me, so without more data suggesting differently, this combination can be regarded as hypothetical. It might be interesting to keep an eye on this region, but the down side is the ACE satellite, there is no coverage for California at Sunset / Dusk because they transfer the station to DSCOVR… or so I am told 😉
I know this works because three of the hits I have in the BIG room, are attributed to this method. Its just a question of knowing where or where not to adjust time, and working out how the combination fits with the contacts.
The usual suspects on my radar at the moment include Myanmar, Bolivia and Hokkaido… do you have anything lined up Chris ?
Score: 0115 pts11 ptsCounselorNovember 9, 2017 at 2:58 pm #3037Hey Lester… I made that anchorage forecast off of the previous blot that occurred within that circle I drew, but also due to some interesting Ionospheric activity I was observing once again. Interesting thing is that I was watching Southern California with some af the additional activity and there was an OLR Anomaly off the coast starting from SoCal/ Baja to the hollister area. There was a 30km deep quake near Fillmore California, just up the Santa Clara river. Although that doesn’t register as a blot, but 30 KM quakes along the San Andreas are more of a “red flag”. I have not made my own forecast yet for California because I wasn’t sure if it was pointing to another region via terminator sequence or if SoCal is next (nor cal Oregon cascadia was getting more than so cal in terms of other things based on Ben’s model).
I missed your previous post, but I am hopping to squirrel away some time today to check things out and join you in the next round of posts. If anchorage just happens to be the connection point, then maybe finally have hit pay dirt for our efforts!
Score: 011 ptsCounselorNovember 9, 2017 at 4:18 pm #3038Ugh…GIRO IRTAM was not updating now, but your proton data begins at the TEC anomaly I saw around the SoCal area and precedes the magnetometer fluxes that match the time of the solar Terminator passing over SoCal!
If OLR shows up I am curious about a delay and return of more TEC, with quakes in between that could complete the idea of a quake in SoCal. We have low pressure cell, small one, but with light precipitation overhead too. It’s no longer full/new moon influences though. But, I am wondering if that means lesser magnitude? M5.5 max for the area? What do you think?
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