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115 ptslesterJanuary 11, 2018 at 3:02 pm #3588
Hey Chris,
I look forward to hearing about your idea… you have hit several 5’s in the last 2 weeks, so your technique obviously works !
I recorded a repeat contact at 09:52 UTC again (same as yesterday), however on this occasion ACE recorded an aspect change at the same time. There is not enough data yet, to determine if it relates to any specific location… but it does rule out the moons position !
Interesting 5+ swarm on the Iraq-Iran border today, first event occurred at 06:59:31 UTC, the last event occurred at 08:00:40 UTC… duration of 1 hour 11 seconds, or equivalent to 15 degrees of Earth’s rotation !
After the Iraq-Iran events occurred, I came up with another combo but it may not mean anything… the 7.6 North of Honduras event occurred at 02:52 UTC 10/1, the first Iraq-Iran event occurred at 07:00 UTC. These times combine as Dusk / Dawn on 71.660’W – 44.310’S 17 km’s East of Lago Verde on the South Chile-Argentinean border region. When I ran a T sequence here, it showed Sunset today as 00:33 UTC… also at this time it was Dusk on the 7.6 North of Honduras epicentre !
I missed Reykjanes ridge by a week… I hope your new technique has something to do with improving our timing 🙂
Score: 0115 pts115 pts11 ptsCounselorJanuary 12, 2018 at 1:51 am #3596Yeah…I think I am ready for a longer break myself.
I don’t necessarily believe the idea I have involves just the moon terminator. I am just going to shift my focus to that one and test something out measuring the time from one tromso mag flux peak/relaxation point to another. I want to see what I get with the sun terminators doing that, as well as whether I can better frame the area to use the main indicators on the model for me on quakewatch. I probably should have been more clear about that. I am putting emphasis on the moon.
I don’t know what this will mean for timing at all. Perhaps “somebody” had figured that one out already, but I don’t think I am any closer to that.
It may mean that I will not post as often either. I am also coming home too spent from work at the moment. If I think I have something using this idea, then I will post.
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 12, 2018 at 6:09 pm #3598I can see this is burning you out because you didn’t post any smilies !… we have had nearly a month of being dead in the water, and like me, you are probably wondering why you didn’t get a hint of something occurring North of Honduras. Let me guess, the first thing you do in the morning with your coffee cup in hand is check the quake lists. At work you have access to data via your phone, and if something interesting comes up on the screen, first thing you want to do when you get home is check this out !… does this sound about right ?. It is what I use to do when I was working, one of the worst times for me was going to bed with a new idea running round in my head… I use to lose so much sleep.
Sometimes you have to step back and asses what you are actually doing… are you confident that the sun / moon terminators are helping you determine your forecast locations ?, if so then you are “now” taking something for granted in your everyday life that has not been truly investigated. There are no published papers linking the terminators to earthquakes, no earthquake programs on TV mentioning this kind of correlation… and no books in the stores entitled Earth to sky !… you are one of the few that believes this phenomena works.
One of the biggest problem we both have is trying to match all or data on a global scale. I once spent a year concentrating solely on Oklahoma, another time I was so affected by an earthquake in China, I spent a year here. But because of how terminator correlations work, you can only do this by covering everywhere all the time… eg; for the last 3 weeks, Sunrise on Reykjanes Ridge has been accompanied by Sunset on the 6.0 epicentre in Myanmar. They are half a world apart, yet they both experienced a seismic event on the same day, if you rule out a correlation with the terminator… then what else could it be ?
I can understand about you considering taking (or wanting) a break, but if I may make a suggestion !. Unless you have friends or understanding family you can discuss this subject with, you are still going to need an outlet to free space in your mind… otherwise you become overwhelmed with endless possibilities. You should consider starting your own “uninterrupted” thread to report your findings, unusual data, or your own suspicions of the usual suspects. I did it with the ACE data, I admit I felt a bit foolish at first, but I took into account I had several successful hits under my belt, so as crazy as my idea’s sounded… some elements of them did actually work !. You have hit two 6’s in 4 days and many other sub mag locations since… your idea’s would not be considered foolish !
Definition of foolish would be me attempting to water “sky” 🙂
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterJanuary 13, 2018 at 2:38 pm #3602Chris…a 4.2 occurred in El Salvador at 01:43 UTC, and it was Sunset in Bangladesh when the 5.9 “San Cristobal Trench”, Solomon Islands event occurred.
Ignore what I said above… after this last event, I have decided your advice is better
Thank you for being a friend !
Score: 011 ptsCounselorJanuary 13, 2018 at 3:16 pm #3603Hi Lester..:-)
I intend to step away for a bit. It’s what prompted me at one point to post that rubbish on moon termination in separate posts in this member forum and later my two 6’s… Btw… saw that 5.9 east of honirara Solomon Islands! We had eyes on our that didn’t we 🙂
That’s just it… you hit the nail in the head in your description above… I am also empathic. My job is mentally trying and I expend a lot of that energy helping young men and women getting ready to go out into the real world…worry over the next quake and hoping to get another step closer to something “actionable” in our findings has me realizing I have included a greater number of people in my daily life where playing with my son and hanging out with my wife, while only occasionally having an observation about quakes, gave me more insight.
I may get a chance to forecast today or tomorrow hopefully 🙂
Thank you for being my sounding bell for this quake work.
Score: 0115 pts11 ptsCounselorJanuary 15, 2018 at 7:34 am #3614Alright my friend…
I have posted my third and last forecast until those all expire. I have two twenty forecasts and now a 7 day.
I am glad to see how things got ti d up at the end with that 952 time because you reminded me of this time just as I happen to be seeing the spots I chose just now and they seem to fall in close on that same line.
Maybe a good thing? But, I will be doing my homework a bit and looking to regain my momentum to do this over the weekends instead of trying to do this during he week.
Perhaps bill and Ted will make a comeback too. If I do truly find the next key, then I will add that here too. See you next weekend Lester.
-Chris
Score: 011 ptsCounselorJanuary 15, 2018 at 9:12 pm #3616Lester! 🙂 Ok…This is not a fib…had the day off and snagged a smidge of time… 🙂 Thought I saw something for Romanche fracture zone (near Ascension). That will be my last, figure I would post one that supports the post you have.
Anyway, I will be back next weekend to check in.
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 15, 2018 at 9:26 pm #3619According to EMSC, there were 81 responces related to a 4.6 in Portugal at 11:52 UTC… Dusk on the epicentre occurred today at 19:08 UTC
At 20:24 UTC, EMSC shows 580 responses related to a 4.3 in Greece at 20:24 UTC… Dusk on this epicentre occurred today at 17:01 UTC
17:01 UTC and 19:08 UTC correspond to Dawn / Sunrise on 165.340’W – 53.370’N Unalaska Basin, Aleutian Islands… little quakes with big effects are pulling energy from here !!
See you at weekend 🙂
Score: 0115 pts11 pts115 ptslesterJanuary 16, 2018 at 8:57 pm #3622Well… nobody can accuse you of “not” being consistent 🙂
I think I would be tempted to stay in the 5.5 – 6.5 range until any notable activity was forthcoming from the sun, our efforts are being wasted through lack of solar energy. And if you feel your method is working for you, I would not be inclined to make any drastic alterations or improvements… as usual, the biggest problem we have is getting the right forecast period. I am confident that I have found three pre-seismic locations in southern Chile, Baja CA, and Eastern Xizang China (confident like Solomon’s confident 😉 ) however, I am now trying to resist forecasting them until weekend to try and give myself a better time range !. For an avid forecaster, this un-nerving period feels like being on the wagon, or trying to stop smoking… I will be slowly opening one eye to look at my laptop in the coming mornings 🙂
Score: 0115 pts11 pts115 pts11 ptsCounselorJanuary 17, 2018 at 2:25 pm #3631Lester, I think he may agree with our use of terminator lines, but the direction you or I go with them may be what’s different.
Anybody make an offer through your google+ for those impressive 24hr posts?
C’mon brother… even if it is to show off a little… you can just keep adding to your resume for some eventual patron to your work.
I have my idea about the magnetometer fluxes and sun/moon terminators, Lester has his ideas that have him using the Ace data feeds with solar terminator primarily (and he maps it out into future days). Sometimes we worked together and would use what we learned through you and Ben to support an area we were looking at and timing is still off. In the midst of lower solar output, he and I have ended up getting within the ballpark of several quakes… just off on timing.
Aside from Ben, you are the only other person that seems to have the timing down. I thought you may just wait to forecast at full moons/new moons… but I think a few of those 24hr posts were outside of that range.
Theses forums are the proving grounds… unless you are hoping to get hired by NASA? What have you got to lose coming back in here and showing us a thing or two… that never stopped you before?
Score: 037 ptsHookEchoJanuary 17, 2018 at 3:01 pm #3632I haven’t went over your 10 page discussion as of yet but I have been correlating terminator/M6.0+ events, the recent M7.1 Peru was within an hour of a terminator threshold, which is not bad and many others are right on the money or very very close. I have had alot of distractions so I haven’t been able to dedicate time I would like. But, one must ask..how are these events being triggered, what is the mechanism? Discuss 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 17, 2018 at 10:02 pm #3633The following times and dates relate to the longitude distance between the sun and moon, being equal to the length of night on the suns latitude. You will not appreciate what I am trying to show you… unless you try this on your own screen with a T&D map !
8th Dec 2017 – 02:20 UTC … sun/moon distance = 114.649 degrees
28th Dec 2017 – 07:33 UTC .. sun/moon distance = 112.949 degrees
6th Jan 2018 – 19:09 UTC … sun/moon distance = 115.457 degreesOn 8th Dec at 02:20 UTC, the geocentric position of the sun was 142.949’E – 22.716’S over Queensland, Australia (Dot the Sun).
Sunset on the co-ordinates stated occurred at 09:00 UTC, input this time and you will see it is also Dawn on the 7.1 Peru epicentre !
………………………………………………………………………………….On 28th Dec at 07:33 UTC, the geocentric position of the sun was 69.149’E – 23.266’S over the Indian Ocean (Dot the Sun)
Sunrise on the co-ordinates stated occurred at 05:53 UTC, input this time and you will see it is also Dusk on the 7.1 Peru epicentre !
………………………………………………………………………………….On 6th Jan at 19:08:17 UTC, the moon was on longitude 138.966’E… when the 7.6 North of Honduras occurred at 02:51:32 UTC on the 10th Jan, the sun was on longitude 138.966’E !!
Here is an ACE example… did you happen to note the two electron spikes which occurred in the ACE EPAMe data on 15th Jan at 23:07 UTC, and 16th Jan at 07:07 UTC ?… input the second time of 07:07 UTC, and dot the sun. Now input the first time of 23:07 UTC 15th Jan, you can see it is now Dawn on the sun dot!. On 16th Jan at 15:04 UTC, a 5.9 occurred near the coast of Nicaragua, input this time and look at the sun dot… this is a trigger point on the Earth, but how did it get there ?
Here’s another resent ACE connection… on 14th Jan, a short period data break occurred in the ACE data feeds starting at 17:33 UTC. On 16th Jan, another one occurred starting at 08:02 UTC. 17:33 UTC and 08:02 UTC corresponds to Sunrise / Dusk on the 5.9 Fiji Region epicentre !!
I have not been able to put my finger on the trigger mechanism, but the small example of probable cause above suggests the terminator as the likely instigator of seismic events. As Chris was mentioning earlier, our forecasts are failing mostly because they are not reaching the posted magnitudes. The time is also an issue but basically it is just a game period on this site, and not relevant to the science… but we are “actually” hitting the targets by using our own terminator methods.
So there you have it, my small contribution to this discussion… who’s next 🙂
What is a dragon jammar…is this a “Thrones” thing ?
Score: 011 ptsCounselorJanuary 18, 2018 at 2:34 pm #3639The idea have been using to adjust my forecasts as the sun’s output became lower had been based on a smaller scale version of the global Kp index during geomagnetic storms. When I looked at the Tromso Stack Plots under the H for height or F for force, the quakes seemed to correlate around the points just before or after a major flux (reflecting the larger scale geomagnetic storms dampening quake activity). Some times this correlated to Sun terminators, sometimes it related to Moon terminators. If increased magnetic force disturbs the global electric circuit, creating voltage surge/drop then you get changes in current flow (and vice versa) which happens in order to balance the total energy. But, this is occurring at the various levels and through varying layers that each have different conductive and resistive qualities (like a capacitor). So, oscillating magnetic fields can imterrupt or amplify the varying facets to electrical flow (including heat/ mechanical work / static build-up, etc). When the magnetic field activity relaxes, or the point just prior to the magnetic fluxing, an energetic reaction should take place, like the spark that occurs when pulling out a plug or the spark that occurs when reconnecting a wire. But, that is just the where I was in the beginning of this because I was already thinking that which sector boundary crossings, the oscillating that occurs during larger geomagnetic storms, the planet alignments, cosmic rays, and tidal force (and maybe magnetic force) our earth gets from the moon.
Several triggers… why it seems to appear to us at the terminators? Maybe that is just simply the more extreme ends that creates the more energetic release or reconnecting? Maybe certain parts of the earth are more affected by one factor versus another as a trigger may be concerned since the fracture zones are thinner than the subduction zones, inner layers of the mantle may only affect the next layer up or down when changes occur?
Thoughts?
Score: 011 pts -
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