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115 ptslesterNovember 9, 2017 at 9:59 pm #3041
Hey Chris,
I checked CA contacts and found 3 Sunrise, 3 Solar Noon’s and 1 Dawn… to be honest, there is nothing here to get exited about yet. It was a good combination, but I believe the proton increase is “now” attributed to the Auckland Islands region. I was demonstrating in real-time how I put things together, but when you compare this to previously compiled data… you sometimes find a different story. California is worth keeping in the books because if anything occurs in Auckland, it has a parallel terminator connection. Lest this occurs, from “my” point of view I would need more substantial data to follow it further.
If I see anymore moon / terminator combinations I’ll let you know, and see if we can find just cause to keep on it!
Izu Island quakes have been bugging me all day 🙂
Score: 011 ptsCounselorNovember 9, 2017 at 11:31 pm #3042Lester, thanks. More lining up north of SoCal today so your input helps!
Izu Islands was also part of the Mag flux, Sun/Moon leaned on Moon again here), OLR, and TEC that was matching up with south Philippines for me. I went with south Philippines instead. However, there was a double TEC signature over Hachijo and S Philippines. I am feeling I choose the wrong spot. 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 10, 2017 at 5:17 pm #3048Going off today’s activity in Saumlaki… I’d say you were in the right spot !
When I post a forecast, I print it out and blue tack it to the wall. I noticed a 5.8 West Chile Rise at 13:57 UTC and felt sure I had predicted it. An hour ago I found it behind the central heating radiator… it had fallen off the wall. I’ve missed two big hits this week because of dumb mistakes… don’t use blue tack on your print outs 🙂
Score: 011 ptsCounselorNovember 11, 2017 at 1:20 am #3052I will keep that in mind and I will need to place mine out my son’s reach. 😄
Lester, I think I missed this quake in my radius! Ascension Islands:
https://photos.app.goo.gl/my6jyFG9vZesZzsD2
Score: 011 ptsCounselorNovember 11, 2017 at 4:42 pm #3062Lester! Ben confirmed my Ascension Island prediction! 😄
I am hoping to have this and my other forecast observations compiled for the terminator research too! 😬 sooner rather than any later.
I just want to say thank you. I give you and Hook credit for what you each have taught me to train my eyes to look for too when using Ben’s model. I also know it is hard to trust new people so thanks for taking the time with me. After remembering the Bill and Ted story… I hope our combined successes and teamwork add a new chapter for you since you helped me find a new key. Cheers!
-Chris
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 11, 2017 at 8:07 pm #3063Chris,
Once again I am very pleased for you… Not only is it remarkable that you hit two 6+ earthquakes in 4 days, but you also did it whilst the sun was flat-lined!. I have always argued the terminator connection since doing a paper on the “Maunder Minimum” many years ago… if you are not familiar with this period, there is a good explanation on Wikipedia. If memory serves me right, this was a 70 year period beginning in the mid Seventeenth century, during which no sunspots of any significance were observed. Yet during this period millions of people died due to multiple 8+ earthquakes and resulting Tsunamis… solar output was so low that it caused a mini ice age. The sun goes through its many cycles, its distance from Earth is constantly changing, so solar output is constantly changing. But for billions of years, one thing has always remained the same, the Sunrise and Sunset terminator… they have, and always will be present day after day !!
I do have trust issues, but it is mostly with elements of the scientific community. I have learned there are people out there, who are only interested in promoting their careers. Others are happy with how thing are, and will go to extraordinary lengths to prevent change. And there are many that will not entertain you because you are not within the scientific circle… lots of Bill and Teds out there I assure you.
In essence, we are both amateurs in a science subject that is way above our heads. I have to self interpret a lot of the data I use for correlations. For instance I truly don’t know if the Infrared spectrum plays a part in what I see, because nobody has investigated this and given me an alternative. But it fits the picture, and without it I couldn’t get this to work… my hopes have always been to work as a citizen science team, and get some of these issues ironed out!
I make a lot of mistakes these days, probably because I have a lot of figures running round in my head all the time, and less brain capacity than I used to have to sort them out. But Yes, now you have your eye on the ball so to speak, let us continue our endeavour and see where it leads us… thank you again for your kind words!
Gimber Minimum… has a nice ring to it 🙂
Score: 011 pts115 ptslesterNovember 12, 2017 at 8:54 pm #3081Hey Chris,
I noticed a familiar name mentioned in SO news again today… I use to like watching this show 🙂
Ben said NASA are “now” looking into ways of detecting electric signals in the Earth to try and find earthquakes. I nearly fell out of my chair Laughing, especially as the article followed your slot… another 10 years and they might get around to investigating the terminator 🙂
I mentioned having trouble with all the numbers in my head… Well, after the 7.2 occurred in Iran I realised I had been chasing my tail again. Dawn on the 7.2 epicentre at 02:02 UTC = Solar Noon on my Bonin Islands Forecast. Sunrise on the epicentre at 03:29 UTC = Dusk on my Yukon forecast and Dawn on my Bulgaria forecast. Dusk on the epicentre at 15:22 UTC = Dawn in Anchorage, Alaska, “Your” forecast, and mine two weeks prior. Solar Noon on the epicentre at 08:42 UTC = Sunset in Ryukyu Islands and Dusk in Hokkaido, both these are my active forecasts too!. You know how this works, my forecasts are all derived from ACE data contact times. In effect, had I got the pieces in the right order, it would have shown that ACE found the 7.2… I think I’ll change the subject before I start to laugh or cry again!
The up side to this event occurring… there is always a parallel T connection event within the following few days. The sun’s current lateral position is favourable for high mag events in the Japan / Alaska regions.
Well done again for getting another hit… I found some times for you to play with, as thanks for your kind words, plus I thought you might be in bed when some of these contacts occurred…
1/11 – 08:02 UTC
2/11 – 08:56 UTC
4/11 – 10:44 UTC
6/11 – 12:46 UTC
9/11 – 15:50 UTC
10/11 – 16:42 UTCThey all relate to the “moon” terminator on Java, there’s not much in the way of solar contacts yet. But if there is any future TEC / terminator interactions in this region… you know better than I what to watch for!
The times are genuine, most of these are included in my “chase my tail” forecasts… and look what I missed 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 12, 2017 at 10:36 pm #3087I was just reworking the Hollister connection, when I noticed no quakes had occurred in California today according to the USGS map. When I checked EMSC, the last event was a 2.6 in Central California at 17:01 UTC yesterday… I don’t recall seeing it this quiet before, so perhaps we should keep an eye on Hollister after all !!
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 12, 2017 at 11:50 pm #30925.9 Honshu has just caught me out again, Dawn on the epicentre at 19:28 UTC = Hokkaido Dawn. Dusk on the epicentre at 08:42 UTC = Dusk Hokkaido and Sunset on my Ryukyu Islands forecast. Sunrise on the epicentre occurred today at 21:00 UTC… you might want to check this time against Java !!
Considering my last post, this might be interesting… if you take Dawn on the 7.3 Iran epicentre at 02:03 UTC, Solar Noon from the 5.9 Honshu at 02:03 UTC, and Sunset from the Iran epicentre at 13:55 UTC. They correlate as Sunrise and Dusk on 113.155’W – 27.610’N 15 km’s East of El Marasal, Baja California. If I triangulate this with the Hollister contact at 14:37 UTC on the 8th, the model also correlates with San Cristobal trench, Solomon’s and the Peru-Bolivia border region.
Score: 011 ptsCounselorNovember 13, 2017 at 12:22 am #3093I saw that Japan quake and thought you got the hit! Maybe you are on the trail for South America. I am eyeing a few of those places you mentioned. The max height of the F2 layer remained after The Sun terminator had left the Peru and Bolivia border. I just posted for Mozambique/Botswana because of few of factors I was looking for in my previous posts, but now it seems like there are multiple spots that weren’t as clear when the full moon was up. 😬
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 13, 2017 at 1:21 am #3096The Peru-Bolivia border region seems favourable at the moment, it has a Dusk / Dawn T connection with those Tajikistan quakes on the 10th, it is also lined up with Salta, Argentina… and at Dusk today at OO:10 UTC, it was Solar Noon on the 4.5 Wellington NZ event. Also Panama is not far behind Peru with solar connections… and it is on the same terminator threshold. I was right about an uptick in the Japan region, been watching a couple of locations in Alaska for approx 3 weeks… I thought now might be a good time to forecast.
Retiring to bed now, a 7.3 will not compare to the wrath of my wife if she finds me on here again at this time 🙂
Score: 0115 pts11 ptsCounselorNovember 13, 2017 at 2:11 am #3099Wow! Hope things continue to line up. May be rejoining in forecasting Bolivia/Peru.
I would also agree that the magnitude of a wife’s wrath is far worse. I too better settle down and do some more observing for the next few days. I’ll check back later.
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterNovember 13, 2017 at 8:31 pm #3110Chris… are you seeing this 4.7, 16 miles South of Hollister ? I’ve been working this region today, the 8th Nov contact “is” hollister, other T contacts are minimal and mostly target Auckland. If anything substantial occurs in Auckland or Central Turkey (particularly the Ankara region), I believe the backlash is going to come here !!
In case you were wondering… Dusk on the 4.7 epicentre occurred at 02:28 UTC 🙂
Score: 011 ptsCounselorNovember 14, 2017 at 3:02 pm #3116What’s also fascinating for me is, if I am reading this new chart correctly, the hmF2 layer keeps showing up around NZ at higher points on the night side of Earth these past couple of days. OLR has been slightly off, but grazed north or Auckland island south a few times repeatedly. Some of the past couple of days of magnetometer readings I looked at show dawn dusk lines, or sun even, around here too. I think you are on to the next epicenter again. Another note is that 228 time matches a fairly large mag flux within my approximate time too.
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 14, 2017 at 4:20 pm #3117Chris… there is a significant aspect change in the MAG data at 13:15 UTC, a spike has also appeared in EPAMe data at 14:47 UTC. Together, these match Dawn and Sunrise in the Hollister Region again ! I think there is enough active data connected to this region to warrant a forecast. I believe we have made a joint effort on this one, this is your homeland so you take lead when you are ready… if you hit the target, add me in the credits later 🙂
Score: 011 ptsCounselorNovember 14, 2017 at 4:47 pm #3118You know what…let’s jointly forecast. Want to come up with a name?
You can see from my forum handle that I lack that talent. I also think it’s fair you take the lead on this since I am merely adapting the terminators to the HmF2 that Hook shared here.
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11 pts115 pts11 pts115 ptslesterNovember 14, 2017 at 9:36 pm #3124I didn’t see a definite sun / moon contact in any data… but in the last 24 hours, there have been five 2.5+ quakes South of Hollister, all in the same spot. There have been no other quakes anywhere else on the West coast again… its like something is suppressing the energy… the sea retreats before a tsunami occurs does it not!
I have done the deed, but if we get it wrong… you can be Bill 🙂
Score: 011 ptsCounselorNovember 14, 2017 at 10:22 pm #3125Hahaha yes Bill sounds good.
That “earthquake stacking” is something I remember reading about occurring at the sight of California quakes sometimes. I went into USGS before to look and see that that can go on with up to 14 or more smaller quakes. They appear to fluctuate just under the surface and go from 1 to 2 back and forth…like a pulse…just before a larger quake. It might go up to 3 or 4 again before it hits, but this is where I am unsure because of variability.
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