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115 ptslesterMay 22, 2018 at 3:41 pm #4655
OH! I went to bed “smiling” last night…. what a beautiful baby you have, and such a grand name, you must be very proud 🙂
Many congratulations to you and your wife from the “Lester” household. We had a toast in “Connor’s” honour with some JD I found in an old cupboard… might be another reason why I went to bed smiling 🙂
Good show my friend 🙂
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterMay 23, 2018 at 8:21 pm #4664The ACE EPAM data streams resumed operation today at 17:55 -8 LS = 17:47 UTC, after an absence of four days. Their reappearance did not coincide with any terminator thresholds being located on any part of Madagascar Island. However, at 17:47 UTC, it was Moonset on the 4.0 Taiwan epicentre (above) which occurred at 08:30 UTC today !!
Score: 011 pts115 ptslesterMay 26, 2018 at 10:54 am #4678Oh, you know… its a bit quiet since my partner went on maternity leave 🙂
Tried my luck on Hawaii again, I noted 4 significant contacts in the last 48 hours, and there was an uptick in quake numbers yesterday at 138 events of 2+… the day before, there were 46 !
How is little Connor doing ?
Score: 011 ptsCounselorMay 26, 2018 at 7:00 pm #4681Doing well! He is cluster feeding though so I sleep when I can…and screen shot when I can. 😉
My oldest is in love! https://photos.app.goo.gl/5wmtRkaWWqyfiick2
My brief respites and bursts of observations:
https://photos.app.goo.gl/zWxW0y87BB9OPSOs1
Bonin to Guam, maybe PNG? Still seeing Madagascar and Carribean (probably just going to keep up that littl quake bit, bit curius about the coming equinox for that region)
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7 pts115 ptslesterMay 27, 2018 at 9:09 pm #4690Hello Fred, the door is always open to you here… if you don’t mind a little dry humour, and trying a few crazy ideas, you will fit right in 🙂
If you have been monitoring the chat, you will have seen that Chris and I have been experimenting with different data sets, which primarily focus on solar / lunar terminator contacts with potential seismic locations. It kind of works but the hit-miss ratio is currently not in our favour. Our method does find a high percentage of active regions, but we also suffer a high percentage of failures due to low magnitude results. Chris was looking into Guam yesterday, and a 4.9 has occurred there earlier today. I saw something for Guatemala, posted accordingly, and a 4.4 occurred there a couple of hours before this post. As I said in my first line, the terminator hypothesis is a crazy idea and a little hard to get your head round, but Chris was on Guam and I am in Guatemala because we followed the terminator !!
Fully understand Fred if this is not something you would wish to peruse with us, if I recall, you had an interest in lay lines ?… we sometimes talk about movies and maternity issues too 🙂 (dry humour !)
Chris… I keep seeing Madagascar too, but the action keeps occurring in Myottee… I think we are going to get blown on this one due to the available time period again !.
Adorable pictures my friend… you truly have been blessed 🙂
Score: 011 ptsCounselorMay 28, 2018 at 8:54 am #4693Hello Fred,
We would be happy to include you in our misadventures of the seismic kind (how’s that Lester) 🙂
Not sleeping at the moment and found a break to do a quick forecast for Tagus Basin based on an image I took from GIRO IRTAM at UMASS Lowell. Sometimes I offload a bunch of those in here and connect it to seismic potential in regions with high total cloud water, wind, percipitable water, and particulates based on a couple of articles Ben and Todd (from 9 Reece) had found:
Response in the surface atmospheric electric field to the passage of isolated air mass cumulonimbus clouds
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682617304285Aerosols and seismo-ionosphere coupling: A review
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682617302031I also play with terminators and where they are when there are fluxes in the magnetosphere. I like to refer to the Tromso stackplot website to find the times of larger changes to note (with Lester) the location of sun, moon, and respective terminators.
I more or less try to follow Ben’s model, but I also like to experiment. I also like to support Lester’s T-sequence work because I began the cross paths with him enough times to quit believing in simple coincidence.
Whether you want to experiment on your own in here, or work on something with us, then feel free to do so! HookEcho had been working on Peak times research before taking a break in here too, but worked on a lot of other research with us in here for a time.
We are clearly not afraid of failure in here so don’t hesitate to explore with us!
Lester, I do feel very blessed these days. 🙂 thanks again! I may take advantage of this 12 AM to 2 AM (pacific time) slot I seem to be getting for myself for my brief time away from work…but, that may change tomorrow lol 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterMay 28, 2018 at 10:42 am #4694Chris… I recorded another significant contact yesterday at 22:18 UTC, it was Solar Noon on the 6.9 Hawaii epicentre.
Note of interest… Dusk occurred on the 6.9 Hawaii epicentre today at 05:16 UTC, also at this time, it was Sunrise in La Palma / Tenerife, Canary Isles !
Misadventures of the seismic kind… I like that 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterMay 28, 2018 at 2:47 pm #4695Chris, something interesting… today’s T sequence for 36.860’N – 12.426’W Hirondelle ll Seamount, Tagus Basin.
Dawn 03:48 UTC = Solar Noon on 122.010’E – 23.800’N Off Coast of Shoufeng, Eastern Taiwan
Sunrise 05:35 UTC = Dawn on 11.370’W – 6.680’S Ascension Islands Region
Sunset 19:59 UTC = Solar Noon on 119.900’W – 36.000’N Avenal / Kettleman City, California… Sunset in La Palma / Tenerife !
Dusk 21:46 UTC = Dawn in Hamelin Bay, South of Perth, Western Australia 🙂
Solar Noon 12:48 UTC = Sunrise on 119.900’W – 36.000’N Avenal / Kettleman City, California
All of these locations (bar Hamelin Bay) are mine and our current active forecasts. As you can see, your forecast location does have correlation with the Canary Islands, and therefore an indirect correlation to the 6.9 Hawaii epicentre !
I would say this is a typical example of why we ruled out “simple coincidence” !
Score: 011 pts115 ptslesterMay 28, 2018 at 5:30 pm #4698Yes! I think you have used good judgement for the location in question. This is the kind of area that it is either a 5 or nothing, a bit like the Ascension Islands region… how many 3’s do you recall seeing in the Ascension Islands in a typical week ?
The Madagascar forecast expired yesterday, but there are still 8 allowable days remaining. I am taking a gamble on trying to watch for the right kind of data to proceed further. This is what I have been trying to do with my other forecast locations, been feeling like I am wasting several days on account of one significant sign… don’t know if this will work, but I look like I am taking little bites out of the Earth 🙂
I thought you might spot your co-ordinate error… sleep deprivation does that to you 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterMay 28, 2018 at 7:24 pm #4701No! its further North to the area I had covered. Two weeks ago, I hit a 5.5 in Guam at 14 Miles from the epicentre, it was posted as a 5.5 with EMSC, but I couldn’t claim it because USGS posted it as 5.2… I have been avoiding the area since, because I am a sore loser 🙂
Score: 0115 pts11 pts115 ptslesterMay 29, 2018 at 5:10 pm #4709Chris… the EPAM data streams have resumed operation again at 14:05 UTC, after an absence of 4 days. If you check the moon map, you will see the Sunset / Moonrise terminators have fallen short of converging on the the Madagascar forecast co-ordinates by “8 Minutes”. I am considering weather the “8 minute” shortfall represents a solar re-fractal difference, due to full moon influence which occurred at 12:52 UTC… or maybe there is no relation to Madagascar !
What do you think ?
Score: 011 ptsCounselorMay 29, 2018 at 9:54 pm #4710Lester,
Check out these mag fluxes across the components:
https://photos.app.goo.gl/dSXrYy2AhPJc3JG43
I am curious about some of the usual suspects, but maybe that JEC canary post will hit? Maybe we need to doc and Marty the Caribbean again? I need to peek at GIRO IRTAM. “I’ll be bah-ck!” Some Terminator humor for you 🙂
Score: 011 ptsCounselorMay 30, 2018 at 1:50 am #4712I was going to be selective with the TEC images to you, but lacking focus today… sorry.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/xSZevyY6iRl0avYB2
Hawaii! Btw
Among other areas you liked to the canaries.
Score: 011 pts115 ptslesterMay 30, 2018 at 4:00 pm #4715To be honest, I have not seen much in the Caribbean region that has grabbed my attention. There have been several ACE contacts with Dominican Republic over the last 7 days but nothing “significant”… each time a contact occurs it is followed within 24 hours by a 3+ event. If anything, I still favour Port-au-Prince, Haiti as a potential candidate, it is on the same track as my Ecuador forecast co-ordinates. Each time I see something for Ecuador, I post 3 days and a 4+ always follows soon after… but the same contact is also located on Haiti, and nothing is happening here yet !
Speaking of usual suspects, here’s a little combo scenario I have been working on, in relation to the past 24 hours of online data…
Yesterday (29th) at 14:05 UTC, the EPAM data streams resumed operation after an absence of 4 days, the sun was located on longitude 31.883’W at this time… the opposite longitude to this calculates as 148.117’E
The only significant ACE data occurring yesterday was an aspect change between 18:32 UTC – 18:59 UTC. The usual suspects for 18:32 UTC include; Sunrise East of Numuro Strait and Fiji… Dawn on Kyushu and New Ireland Region… and Sunset in Central Italy and Ascension Islands region. One other location that we don’t regard as “usual” is the West side of the South Georgia Islands… it is Sunset here too !.
At 18:59 UTC, it is Sunrise in the South Hokkaido region… Dawn on the Ryukyu Islands, East of Guam towards Pulau, and the Eastern P.N.G. region. Now, if you combine the EPAM data time with 18:59 UTC,it calculates as 148.117’E – 7.190’S Off the Coast of Morobo District, Eastern P.N.G… If you further input 18:59 UTC 29th May in the moon map, you will see that the RLT (rising lunar terminator) is located on the same spot West of the South Georgia Islands !
At 20:30 UTC, the EPAM data streams suffered further disruption again… at this time, it was Moonset on 148.117’E – 7.190’S Off the coast of Morobo District, Eastern P.N.G. !!. A spike occurred in the EPAMe data at 21:40 UTC, the SLT was located on Taiwan and Halmahera. Two further spikes occurred in the the EPAMp data at 22:20 UTC – 23:40 UTC, at 22:20 UTC,the sun was located on longitude 155.633’W = Solar Noon in Volcano, Hawaii… and at 23:40 UTC,it was Moonrise off the coast of Ecuador !!
The significance of the data suggests there will be consequences with any number of locations listed here… and I shall be forecasting Eastern P.N.G. on the basis of what I have shown here.
I seem to have hit Vanuatu with very little effort… so why can’t I get Madagascar ? 🙁
Al B Bak… Austrian version 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterMay 30, 2018 at 8:57 pm #4717The current ACE data is showing an aspect change at 18:09 UTC, it is Moonrise on my Sandwich Island forecast co-ordinates, but the RLT is also located on Crete… I expect further activity here because it is on the exact opposite longitude to Volcano, Hawaii. There are also two contacts in Phi at 18:17 UTC and 18:31 UTC. At 18:17 UTC, the moon is located on longitude 99.466’E… the opposite longitude calculates as 80.534’W Off the Coast of Ecuador !. The 18:31 UTC contact is basically a repeat of the 18:32 UTC contact described above from yesterday… with the exception that the RLT is located on Greece.
At 19:52 UTC, a “significant” Phi contact, aspect change and electron spike has occurred, this now confirms an anomalous presence on my New Ireland forecast co-ordinates, as it is Sunrise here at this time. It also confirms an anomaly is present on my Ascension Islands forecast co-ordinates, because it is Dusk here !.
Yesterday at 18:32 UTC, it was Sunrise in the Kuril Islands,East of Numuro Strait (as described above), if you input 19:50 UTC today in the moon map, you will see the SLT occupies the same location !. You may also note 18:31 UTC today (moon map) and 19:50 UTC (solar map) shows a convergence on the same location in Greece !… I “feel” a “felt” event in Greece may be on the cards 🙂
The next Phi contact and aspect change occurred at 20:26 UTC, this unfortunately bypassed my determined location for Eastern P.N.G… I suspect it is instead related to Moonset on San Cristobal Island, in the Solomon’s.
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