-
11 pts115 ptslesterNovember 14, 2017 at 11:23 pm #3129
If you check past records of 5+ earthquakes in California, most of them either precede or occur within 30 days of activity in Iran, like an opposite longitude affect. This also applies to Turkey, because Turkey shares the opposite terminator thresholds with California for most of the year. However, the 7.3 Iran was far West, so it doesn’t fit with the standard model… yet CA went quiet 24 hours before the 7.3 event occurred, and seems to be remaining so !
The California forecast is more of an opportunistic effort, there is very little solar data, and there are no T contacts with other previous 5.5+ events (no parallels or opposites). That’s why I remarked it could occur from a backlash with Auckland.
I now have 10 contacts listed between 6th Nov and today related to the region around Jakarta, Java. I think you covered this area last week… do you want to try a B & T on this one, and see if we can find anything new ?
BTW good hit on Anchorage… you are a man of “many 6’s” yet you sound happier getting this 2.8 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 15, 2017 at 12:04 am #3130I have nothing for LA… but the T sequence is interesting. Sunrise in Long Beach LA at 14:28 UTC = Sunset Ankara, Turkey !!… Sunset in Long Beach LA = Solar Noon on 164.330’E – 50.230’S Puysegur Trench, Auckland (my forecast !!). You can see how this can get very confusing, you are on the “right” train… but do you get off at Hollister, Los Angeles or Auckland ?
Score: 011 ptsCounselorNovember 15, 2017 at 2:18 am #3132I will stick with the Hollister forecast (should I make reply to ID myself there?) Another 3.8 in the area and still “pulsing”. Next set of terminators arrives around the time I will be up for work. I want to see if our combined look at this leads to a hit. You have Auckland and I am ok not making an added NZ forecast. I saw triple junction just hit with terminator passing over…maybe my Mozambique post will hit.
-
This reply was modified 7 years, 1 month ago by
Counselor.
115 ptslesterNovember 15, 2017 at 12:02 pm #3136Chris… you should remember that just because we are making a joint effort in CA, you are still going to have your own hunches and ideas. You should still follow these accordingly… if you think there is something in NZ etc, you should go for it. There will be occasion that circumstance will have us working together. By exchanging location ideas, abnormal pressure readings or unusual MAG data (as was the case here) will work out well for us. This is a lonely pursuit, not something you can easily talk to others about… so it is nice to have like minded company to tour the world with 🙂
If you wish to make reply to the Hollister forecast… be my guest, or perhaps you can extend its period when it runs out at 00:01 UTC Nov 22… assuming we haven’t got a hit by then !
Last night, I spent 2 hours pinning data to Bougainville, and decided I didn’t have enough to commit… disillusioned is not a strong enough word 🙁
Score: 011 ptsCounselorNovember 15, 2017 at 2:50 pm #3138You are right. I think I have hit a moment where I found a protocol that has just started to work for me, but I do enjoy working in a team.
I hope you don’t mind my throwing a location at you to see if it lines up on T sequence too. Like how we both were looking at Northwest territory in the US/Canada area. You said why didn’t you think of anchorage, but then you posted Andreanof with Yukon and I said the same thing to myself.
Still not quite sure about LA because of the High pressure that hasn’t moved just yet, and recent Mag fluxes were not landing Terminators near by. I might Bill on our joint post afterall😊 Yet, new Moon is upon us, another quake influence. Once more through the breech my friend! 😊
-
This reply was modified 7 years, 1 month ago by
11 pts115 ptslesterNovember 16, 2017 at 6:13 pm #3149Chris… apologies for my delayed response, I became a little unwell yesterday… probably to many late nights 🙂
I was wrong about no significant correlations with Hollister… I found some good contacts, and hopefully post the details in a few hours when I have completed it.
No problem if you want me to check something out for you… I found the following related to “Prince Edward Island”…
1/11 6.6 Loyalty Islands, event time 02:23:57 UTC – Sunrise on 33.488’E – 47.652’S South of Africa … 02:23 UTC 1/11
1/11 6.6 Loyalty Islands, Dawn at 16:42 UTC – Sunset on ,,,,,,, – ,,,,,,, South of Africa … 16:42 UTC 1/11
3/11 5.6 Jalisco, Mexico, Solar Noon at 18:51 UTC – Dusk on ,,,,,,, – ,,,,,,, South of Africa … 18:51 UTC 1/11
7/11 6.5 New Guinea P.N.G., Solar Noon at 02:10 UTC – Sunrise on ,,,,,,, – ,,,,,,, South of Africa … 02:10 UTC 7/11
7/11 6.5 New Guinea P.N.G., Dusk at 09:31 UTC – Solar Noon on ,,,,,,, – ,,,,,,, South of Africa … 09:31 UTC 7/11
12/11 5.9 Honshu, Japan, Solar Noon at 02:05 UTC – Sunrise on ,,,,,,, – ,,,,,,, South of Africa … 02:05 UTC 12/11Going off these co-ordinates South of Africa, suggests this location is 345 km’s West of your Forecast line… you might want to add a belated margin if you think these times apply. If I am going to be Ted (Edward!), I don’t want you getting this one wrong 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 16, 2017 at 10:01 pm #3151Ok if put something together here, hope you can follow this…
On the 8th Nov, an increase occurred in the proton data, terminating at 14:37 UTC, which as we have established is Sunrise in HOLLISTER, CA. It is also Dawn at this time on 140.600’W – 60.010’N 30 km’s WNW of Yakutat Bay, Yukon territories, Canada.
On 10th Nov, a 5.8 occurs on the West Chile Rise, Dawn on this epicentre occurred at 08:23 UTC. At this time, it was also Dusk on the 6.6 Loyalty Islands epicentre, and Sunset on the 6.5 New Guinea epicentre ( which suggests the former locations had a hand in triggering the quake!).
On the 12th Nov, a 7.3 occurs on the Iran-Iraq border, Sunrise here on this day occurred at 03:29 UTC, this time is also Dusk on the co-ordinates WNW of Yakutat Bay.
On 13th Nov, a 6.7 occurs in Costa Rica at 02:28:22 UTC, at this time it is Dusk in HOLLISTER, CA… and Dusk on the 5.8 West Chile Rise epicentre !. Solar Noon on the Costa Rica epicentre on this day occurred at 17:23 UTC, at this time it was also Sunrise on the co-ordinates WNW of Yakutat Bay !
Finally, a 5.6 occurred Today (16th) in the Solomon Islands at 14:50:04 UTC, Sunrise in HOLLISTER today occurred at 14:50 UTC !
It is a correlated triangulation, that ends up in the Hollister region… Iran-Iraq, Costa Rica and Hollister share commonality with the Yukon teritorries. Costa Rica, West Chile Rise and Hollister share commonality with each other. And New Guinea P.N.G. and the Loyalty Islands are likely to have influenced the West Chile Rise event. The last event in the Solomon’s gives a strong indication of pre seismic influence in California… Sunrise time in Hollister, and a quake occurs in Kirakira !!
I noticed 3 significant correlations in Agnone, Central Italy again whilst I was working this, if you see anything in your data related to this location, could you please let me know ?… I would dearly love to nail this one.
a 5.2 South of Panama at 16:20 UTC… in my margin but failed on magnitude again 🙁
Score: 011 pts11 pts11 ptsCounselorNovember 17, 2017 at 12:32 am #3154Hey Lester,
Magnetometer readings showed a relaxation of the force component from 1300 to 1440 that roughly corresponds to the hollister locations with both moon and sun terminators. Beginning mag fluxes before a large spike at 8 UTC (drake passage) correspond to Italy and Vanuatu.
Score: 011 pts115 ptslesterNovember 17, 2017 at 3:48 pm #3159If this was “my” forecast, I would be moving my alert zone “West” so it is closer to the fracture zone. When I checked the seismic history for this region, I found the closest “South of Africa” event to Prince Edward Island was a 5.8 May 19 2008 on 31.65’E – 47.66’S. From the other direction, closest Southwest Indian Ridge event was a 5.3 Sept 22 2005 on 43.14’E – 40.809’S. Any adjustment is a gamble, all one can do is determine from the data at hand weather it is worth the risk !
“Teddy” 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 17, 2017 at 5:48 pm #3160At 17:09 UTC today, it was Sunrise on my Auckland forecast, also Sunrise on the 7th Nov 5.7 Fiji epicentre (the one you missed out on !) and Sunset on the co-ordinates South of Africa that I posted to you. If Auckland occurs anytime soon, it will mean an adjustment is warranted… it also means we keep a close eye on California and Turkey !
Score: 0115 pts11 ptsCounselorNovember 19, 2017 at 7:41 pm #3180Don’t think it’s a glitch… hoping it lines up with magnetometer readings I am seeing (like Caledonia region… wasn’t paying enough attention to pull the trigger in that forecast and now we might lose subcoder… just frustrating all around I suppose).
I am playing a lot with my son today. Kinda losing time for forecasting at the moment. Holding out hope for our joint forecast after three of my misses yesterday.
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 19, 2017 at 10:09 pm #3184I’m glad you took some time out to play with your boy, missing a forecast now and then is no big deal… there will always be earthquakes. Had a change myself today, spent a couple of hours tidying leaves in my garden, then later fell asleep on my couch. I woke an hour later wondering why my cushion kept moving under my head, then realised I had fallen asleep on my cat… don’t get old because you might end up like me 🙂
The Loyalty quakes are an example of the down side to using the terminator method. Post seismic locations still give off energy readings via the terminator, the event has gone off so you tend to try and connect the readings to a parallel connection… only to be caught out later by the original source.
I think Subcoder will stay… just the other day I was conversing to Tayrance how frustration can get to you with this subject. Many’s the time that I have thrown a cup of coffee at my PC, it keeps going because I think it has gotten use to it… not to fond of decaf though 🙂 If your going to try and predict earthquakes, frustration and disappointment comes with the territory. There will always be a time when you quit, but when you have had time to cool down… you are back on the keys again !
Keep watching for that CA data, I keep seeing an occasional contact but nothing that has me on the edge of my seat like the other day. I found 4 contact times for the 5.8 Halmahera on 1st – 2nd Nov… 16 days before it happened. I find this in most cases, they look like they are going to blow, and then they go to sleep for a couple of weeks…
Score: 0
29 pts115 pts11 ptsCounselorNovember 20, 2017 at 4:29 am #3201Lester!
Read what you posted. Well said. Happy for Tayrence, but for all of us making this effort. Big news for tomorrow. Had tried cranking out some posts when my son was napping. Saw New Caledonia pop while I was looking to make my next post and thought maybe Bill needs another break. Keeping my fingers crossed for what I just posted. I liked your best of five post and jumped when I saw how close you were too!
Got any hits for Jakarta or Ecuador? I was also planning another post for Mozambique, buy that is based on some TEC I have been watching.
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 20, 2017 at 4:34 pm #3210Chris,
Sometimes I end up speaking my mind with out thinking of future implications… got me into a lot of trouble in the past 🙂
There have been quite a few hits on Jakarta, but the problem is the terminator there, has a parallel connection to Halmahera, so the contacts could be related to this location… been waiting to see if anymore contacts occur!
Ecuador is a possibility, but I decided to stay on the train and get off at Haiti… they have been sharing the same Dawn / Sunrise threshold for the past week!
If Bill wishes to try a joint venture again, I have just the thing… I have sourced two significant times from different channels to what we use here, if you are happy with what we witnessed in Hollister then trust me on this! These times are 01:26 UTC and 05:48 UTC, the first time on your map indeed shows Dawn in the Mozambique region, but it also shows Dusk in Bio Bio, Chile which would be my preferred choice. The second time shows Sunrise in Italy, but my preferred choice here would be Sunset on the Kamchatka Peninsula… and it is also Sunset on the 6.8 Tonga epicentre from 4th Nov. If we combine these times like we did with the Moon and proton increase related to Hollister; the sun at 01:26 UTC is on longitude 154.899’E… at 05:48 UTC it is Sunset on 154.899’e – 50.240’N in the Luzhin Strait, Kamchatka Peninsula. There was also a Significant contact in the MAG data at 21:00 UTC on the 18th, I initially had this logged as Dawn on Java, but see where the Sunrise threshold is… and then see where the Moonlight terminator is at the same time!
I’ll get back to you later on this… I’ve just found something at approx 15:37 UTC related to Italy that disturbs me !!
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 20, 2017 at 7:53 pm #3216The original contact time was 15:53 UTC, I deducted 8 minutes which made it 15:45 UTC. When I abruptly told you I had an approx contact time at 15:37 UTC… I had forgotten that I had already deducted 8 minutes when I was telling you. Dawn on the 6.0 Samoa epicentre occurred today at 15:45 UTC… that’s what happens when you are tired from staying up late to answer voting questions !!
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 20, 2017 at 10:04 pm #3217Chris… I seem to be making a lot of mistakes today, I feel I have become a little disillusioned so I am taking some time out. I believe Kamchatka and Offshore Bio Bio have serious potential, so by all means forecast if and when you feel the time is right. I have also been watching Rhodes Basin, Western Turkey… bit of action near there in Cyprus today, and it has a definite terminator contact with Hollister, CA
Perhaps Subcoder can pitch in here… he’s got a good eye for this 😉
Score: 0 -
This reply was modified 7 years, 1 month ago by
-
|
You must be logged in to reply to this topic.