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115 pts115 ptslesterDecember 28, 2017 at 1:14 am #3489
Chris… Have you noticed the belt of small magnitude earthquakes across the central US ?, they form a line on 37’N +/- 0.5 degrees. The sequence runs as Oklahoma 03:22 UTC… Colorado 13:00 UTC… Utah 22:00 UTC… Tres Pinos, CA 00:22 UTC 28/12. They are all on the same latitude as Hollister, but not only that… they all match the twilight borders !!. Input 00:56 UTC 28/12 in the T&D map, at this time it is Sunset in Hollister, compare the map against the USGS quake map… the central US quakes are on the twilight lines!
I was going to wait for your response, but I think I will forecast Hollister again anyway, and hope you see my reasoning for doing so!
Score: 011 ptsCounselorDecember 30, 2017 at 12:37 am #3496Hi Lester,
I saw a flux/relaxation point that day at 0050 UTC on the 28th and TEC bubble at 0530 UTC. I have been busy and simply screenshotted what I could. I was glad you posted for Hollister.
We definitely had the energy release you were expecting that day! I kept checking he USGS site holding my breath almost. I will probably be watching how my 20 day forecast for Mariana Trench region/ Timor goes for the time being. Getting a little side-tracked here. Hoping to get another new forecast soon, or a to support a joint one. Might have to wait until next year…😊
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 30, 2017 at 12:32 pm #3500Hi Chris,
I’m sorry that we struck out on the 28th, I don’t think we are going to have much success hitting these locations until there is an increase in solar activity… it was good experience, but “boy” it sure was a long 24 hours 🙂
I think it was a good call on Hollister even though we have so far missed out again, Tres Pinos had multiple hits with 2.9’s and 3’s. It will be interesting to see if our chosen region plays host to the next notable event on the West Coast!
I got a 5.7 hit on P.N.G., but EMSC killed the moment for me… they first posted 6.2, and I though I had hit one of the last great quakes of 2017… posting in proclamations felt more like a formality than a success!
My MOT 1 forecasts have hit a 5.7, five 5’s and two 4.9’s, including two hits in Myanmar… I think my data works but again, lack of solar activity is drowning the effort!
I too look forward to more of these joint forays in the coming new year, it would also be nice if others participated as well… this site is in desperate need of some new “Yada” 🙂
My best wishes to you and your family for “New Year”
Score: 037 ptsHookEchoDecember 31, 2017 at 1:13 pm #3502Ain’t nothing new under the Sun here, I see 🙂 I have wishes that others would participate more as well. I cook food for college brats all day long It isn’t like you are challenging your professor to a dance off for the last bite of a Kit Kat Bar, as I have historically rammed horns with our mainstream buddies. Anyone ready to try a joint and attempt a project? I can dump a bunch on ya to keep ya busy or I will allow you to speak. Perhaps couneslor would like to begin with charting out the next month in advance in terms of alertsworldwide.
Take note our curnnet spot in the solar cycle. The lithosphere/regions affected during this transition i mjore 0or less the same. PooP!
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 31, 2017 at 3:50 pm #3503Hello Hook,
The last time you graced us with your presence, you ridiculed my method, set yourself a Five 5’s in 20 days challenge to prove your point, and then disappeared for 4 months… Why ?
We never clicked, but the science was here because you were here, Unfortunately my “method” is becoming less effective with solar minimum approaching, and I will not be here to continue by next solar maximum. What is “new under the sun here”… I am, there is no science here so I am amusing myself by attempting silly time forecasts. I once told you that I believed someone like you, with your talent would one day find an answer… I still believe that!
Thank you for “allowing me to speak”
Score: 011 ptsCounselorDecember 31, 2017 at 4:41 pm #3504Thanks for the wishes Lester! Wishing you the same.
Hey Hook! Like Lester, I too wish more would participate. Not like I am feeling as sharp as you or Lester. Was reviewing some old posts like he did and just seemed satisfied that I was able to get the area although a whole magnitude off. My timing still sucks and I am holding in any new forecast because of Mariana Trench forecast is a 20 day watch. It picked up again as we approach full moon so I have been hesitant to make any new ones.
I saw south Japan pop a 5 blot after I thought I saw something almost 10 days ago.
I tried picking up some clues from your public postings on google plus, got inspired, and fired a watch for a 4.5+ in Oklahoma, but only saw a 4 pop much much later.
Both Lester and I know that the Sun is not injecting as much energy, but we’re both scratching our heads even more when we see our individual or joint efforts come close.
If the areas are more or less the same, then those are same areas to get active as we see the upticks? So, there shouldn’t be any surprises?
Like atacama Chile, southern Peru, JuJuy Argentina… mid to southern Philippines, Japan (Sendai north/south) off coast around ryukyu/ bonin Islands/Izu Islands…kurilsk to Kamchatka…Guam/Mariana…North Sumatra into Myanmar…West Java…Dili East Timor/Weber basin/Banda Sea… PNG into Solomon’s/ Vanuatu/New Caledonia/ Fiji Tonga/North NZ… West Turkey into Iraq/Iran… lesser Antilles… Anchorage, Alaska into the aleutians… Guatemala/Mexico City… California coast…not to forget those fun Atlantic ridge hitters/ pacific ridge hitters and off the coast of South Africa/south of Australia ridges and every stinking location of a volcano that didn’t blow…
Those are just to mention a few of the frustrating areas that I know we’ve listed repeatedly and missed for the sake of timing thrown off from lack of solar activity and show up repeatedly in the mag flux stuff I was testing out too. I know Lester has a few spots I may not have mentioned above.
I wouldn’t mind being kept busy if you got something that could help during this transition period…otherwise those are my “forecasts” potentially, but not in that order necessarily. Timing had been an issues in the last super moon and every coronal that came and went where something unexpected for me had hit instead of something that took myself and/or Lester a week to two weeks at the most to review sometimes.
I am hungry…and ready…to get this right. I think Lester would be too.
I haven’t been doing this as long as you guys so I may not seeing the “forrest for the trees” right now. I still need help. Got a little one left for it if you will allow it 🙂
Score: 011 pts115 pts11 ptsCounselorDecember 31, 2017 at 8:13 pm #3507Oh would you look at that…another pesky 4.6 hits within a 300km radius of Sendai north, like I had said above just hours ago…still frustrating…
Just like the Valparaiso to Concepcion Chile line/ Mendoza to Las Ovejas Argentina line that didn’t hit, but might hit much later, when Lester and I had been in that area just recently…
C’mon!
Score: 011 pts115 ptslesterDecember 31, 2017 at 9:22 pm #3509Chris… 5.0 in the Chagos Archipeligo Region, this is one of yours too is it not ?. A 5.0 also occurred in Greece in the early UTC hours today… one of our three locations from the 28th Dec time attempt !
Done the math on another Combo, this one occurs 19:09 UTC on 6th January… believe it or not, the T sequence lands on Las Ovejas, Argentina and Erromango Basin, Vanuatu again !!
If your interested in trying on this one, I will post what I have tomorrow… there are other locations in this that I already appear to have forecasts on !
Score: 0115 pts11 ptsCounselorDecember 31, 2017 at 9:51 pm #3511Yes, that pacific ridge is south of the spot I had. Mine was near the that southern spot from Easter Island..one of those triple junction looking spots.
Yeah Lester…I am willing. Just a little tied up with the kid too much today and tomorrow to do a real look at the data/ make a for cast. If Durban or Cape Town hit that will be a real pisser…
Score: 0115 pts11 pts115 ptslesterJanuary 2, 2018 at 8:32 pm #3520Hey Chris… and a happy new year to you too 🙂
I have completed calculations aimed at a 6+ event occurring at 19:09 UTC, 6th January, here is the math…
On 6th Jan 19:09 UTC, the longitude of the sun will be 105.750’W… longitude of the moon will be 138.783’E
At this time, the length of night from Dusk till Dawn (03:19 UTC – 11:01 UTC) on the suns latitude of 22.383’S = 7 hours 42 minutes
7 hours 42 minutes of Earth’s rotation = 115.457 degrees
Measuring East from centre moon to centre sun; 138.783’E – 105.750’W = 115.457 degrees
………………………………………………………………………………..The geocentric position of the sun at this time will be 105.750’W – 22.383’S, this location relative to Earth places you approx 600 km’s Northeast of Easter Island in the East Pacific. The T sequence for this location on 6th Jan is as follows…
Dawn 11:01 UTC… Sunrise 12:26 UTC… Sunset 01:53 UTC… Dusk 03:19 UTC
The Geocentric position of the moon at this time will be 138.783’E – 6.583’N, this location relative to Earth places you approx 500 km’s East of Palau, Indonesia. The T sequence for this location on 6th Jan is as follows…
Dawn 19:44 UTC… Sunrise 20:59 UTC… Sunset 08:45 UTC… Dusk 10:00 UTC…
……………………………………………………………………………….At Sunset 01:53 UTC in the East Pacific, it is also Dusk on 70.949’W – 36.983’S Las Ovejas, Argentina !
At Sunset 08:45 UTC East of Palau, it is also Dusk on 169.283’E – 18.749’S Erromango Basin, Vanuatu… the moons longitude at this time is 70.500’W (Las Ovejas!).I tried multiple combinations with these times, but the only other feasible location I came up with was New Ireland Region P.N.G.
Combining Dawn 19:44 UTC East of Palau with Sunset 01:53 UTC East Pacific = Sunrise / Solar Noon on 153.166’E – 4.133’S New Ireland Region P.N.G. I further calculated the moons position when it is centred on the Dusk/ Night threshold… and found something interesting !
On 7th Jan at 10:50 UTC, the geocentric position of the moon is on 88.733’W – 3.650’N, this location relative to Earth places you approx 400 km’s Northeast of the Galapagos Islands. Also at this time, it is Dawn on the same stated co-ordinates above. Relating back to the Pacific / Palau times.. at Dusk 10:00 UTC East of Palau, the longitude of the moon is 88.600’W. If you combine these two stated moon longitudes with the Dawn time in the East Pacific of 11:01 UTC, they end up as Dawn on 88.600’W – 11.833’N Offshore El Salvador. Considering a 5.4 occurred Offshore Guatemala 6 days ago, and numerous 4’s have been occurring in Nicaragua and Oaxaca Mexico… it might be safe to assume this could be a viable target in the near future!
As this is the first Time forecast of the new year, I was thinking you might like to chose three possible locations, either from something you have seen here or locations your own method has suggested have potential. Remember, time of event is the main focus here, the rest is just taking pot shots at the planet for now… nothing serious, so have fun and pick some chess pieces 🙂
Score: 011 ptsCounselorJanuary 2, 2018 at 10:24 pm #3522Hi Lester,
I had 0545 and 1200 on Jan 1st for mag fluxes, and there is a TEC signature that interests me and shows itself at 0545 Jan 2nd. The Moon sits close by at the 0545 mark. The ball park area for me is Guatemala City to Managua. I haven’t looked at any mag fluxes yet for today, but New Ireland was part of my watch area around the Bismarck Sea at Kokopo for my 20 day forecast about to expire. Since I seem to enjoy missing the mark by a whole month sometimes, Thanks Hook for pointing that out 🙂 , I may be comfortable including that location. However, I have been eyeing Central America.
Score: 011 ptsCounselorJanuary 2, 2018 at 10:33 pm #3523The congruency in the mag relaxation points, the possible movement of OLR in that region, and an interesting TEC ( although faint) shows a red and blue “squeezing” into that area which is where the moon is over that area at 0545.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/Leo1ei1CAZqD099J2
Forgot to mention Oaxaca and Mexico City
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11 ptsCounselorJanuary 3, 2018 at 3:38 pm #3526Hey Lester,
So, either this is a miss before we get a joint forecast for the area between Guatemala City to Managua I mention above/your specific mentioning of El Salvador, or the sequence you ran and the TEC with mag flux data is sending us the foreshock activity.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/3j8Z1APTMsnSxcck1
Ready? What do you think Hook? Are we wrong about this spot? Would be nice to get your feedback.
My Guam/Mariana Trench only got me another 5+ and I thought that was going to be the heavy hitter during this full moon. Is 5.9 in the area around Vanuatu recently near where Lester and I also forecasted jointly an indication the the earth really only shakes at sub 6 without the Sun’s help?
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 3, 2018 at 8:47 pm #3530Hey Chris… I think El Salvador pulled a “Doc and Marty” on us again 🙂 the location was determined by a combo that does not fit the picture until the 7th… so it was either a warning shot, or my post was impeccably timed !. There is one thing about this event, it does fit in with the same area as Guatemala and Oaxaca… and it seems to be warming up in this region with each passing day!
If I am reading your selection right, do you want me to forecast the following with a 300 km margin ? ; Guatemala City, Guatemala… Managua, Nicaragua… Mexico City, Mexico… let me know if I missed anywhere.
There have still been no 6+ events since 15th Dec, if you check solar / lunar positions at 02:20 UTC 8th Dec against 19:09 UTC 6th Jan, in relation to the terminator, there is very little difference. The combo on the 8th Dec (6.2 Kermadec) occurred whilst the sun was still heading South… It’s latitude at this time was 22.716’S. On the 6th at 19:09 UTC, it will be on 22.433’S, a difference of 0.283 degrees. However, 22.433’S is exactly 1 degree North of its most Southern latitude… I am hoping this fact combined with the night measurement I calculated, should work towards breaking this dry run we are having!
I don’t know if Hook’s assumption about your forecasts is right, but you do tend to leave a lot of “footprints” in seismic area’s that go off after you have moved on. In the past when I have been certain about a location, I have tried to delay forecasting for a few days. But it is the luck of the draw I’m afraid, don’t forecast it and you miss it, or forecast to early and you miss it, there is no easy solution!. However, if your forecasting history is anything to go by… I will be trying my luck on Macquarie Ridge around first week of February 🙂
Score: 0115 pts11 ptsCounselorJanuary 4, 2018 at 12:22 am #3532Hi Lester,
I am doubting this forecast since I also saw the Galapagos area you mentioned had hit as well. Perhaps it was a well timed mention. Perhaps my cconfirming this region now is just going to be too far in advance or already behind. However, it is a Yes for the cities you mentioned. If you do feel these are still strong forecasts too, then I trust your timing.
We have crossed paths before independently, but I believe your timing has been better than mine per your track record. This has me doubtful about my NZ Macquarie spots at the moment. I question what it is I am looking at if Hook is right about how I am calling it. I was to use the time off I had to improve my timing, but I fear I am committing the same mistakes without any growth. I return to work soon without resolution and another forecast that I am choosing to hold now because how you just described the dilemma above.
Not giving up, but I am tired of “nothing new under the sun”.
Hoping for the best for Signey, and any newcomers. Wonder if Tayrance and Subcoder will return soon.
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 4, 2018 at 11:58 am #3534Chris…
Sunset on 122.242’W – 37.861’N Berkeley, San Francisco (4.4 epicentre) … 01:03 UTC 4/1
Dusk on 90.565’W – 14.580’N Las Charcas District, Guatemala City, Guatemala … 01:03 UTC 4/1Don’t be disillusioned… I believe you are on the right path with something here!
Our Hollister forecast expired at 01:30 UTC today (4th), I am working to see if we need to extend this again!
At the time of this post, 871 people are suggesting a 4.4 in San Francisco (near our area!) is the “next” notable event on the West Coast 🙂
More later…
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 4, 2018 at 12:20 pm #3535Chris… a 4.6 has just occurred 80 km’s North of Guatemala City, look at the longitude co-ordinates I posted above, and compare it to the USGS posted longitude!. I don’t think you should hold back on this one, I would suggest you post your “own” 7 day forecast for this location, and I will also include it in the 24 hour B&T forecast on the 6th… this dry run may be coming to an end !!
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