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11 pts115 ptslesterJanuary 4, 2018 at 10:58 pm #3538
Sorry Chris… my wording may have been a little unclear. In a recent post, I mentioned how it would be interesting to see if an earthquake in our Hollister area, would be the next notable event anywhere on the US West coast. According to the “now 935 felt responses” on the EMSC site regarding the 4.4 Berkeley, CA, I conclude this to be the next notable event I speak of 🙂
A couple of other points I found related to Guatemala concern its T sequence. Sunset in Guatemala City today occurs at 23:46 UTC, also at this time it is Dusk on 73.230’W – 20.580’N Great Inagua Island, Turks and Caicos Islands… and Sunrise on 95.630’E – 5.260’N Banda Aceh, Northern Sumatra. You might recognise these locations as being two of my current forecasts, you know better than most that I’m pretty good at finding the right track, I just have trouble with the stops!. If you have found the right stop in Guatemala, and our train comes in on time on the 6th… we can both retire 🙂
Second point… Solar Noon in Guatemala City occurred today at 18:08 UTC, at this time it was also Sunrise on Erromango Basin, Vanuatu… I’m sure this location is daring us to bag it !!
I found nothing else today that gave reasonable incentive to extend the Hollister forecast… but I will keep watching. My own equipment has been giving me a lot of incentive today regarding the Solomon Islands, I have a forecast in place there, but it expires on Sunday… I might be leaving my own “too early” footprint this time 🙂
Score: 011 ptsCounselorJanuary 5, 2018 at 2:12 am #3540I have been seeing Solomon Islands and Vanuatu again since a few days ago. Perhaps you are early there if I am just starting to see some repeat flux points. I thought I saw something for Banda Aceh into bamboo flats India area and saw you were already there.
As for Berkeley, saw only one mag flux event which at 0050 Jan 2 had me looking around Northern California. Subsequent fluxing corresponded more closely to Washington state USA into Canada, but I was actually seeing more terminator points in the mag fluxing that were bringing me south closer to Los Angeles through parts of Baja before and after that mark.
Turks and Caicos had corresponded to something I saw back on December 30-31, and it is showing up on my lines today for Jan 4. See the TEC at 0345 UTC, See OLR from Jan 3, and that 1350 mag mark is approximation: https://photos.app.goo.gl/oWdN3LPbW7AOpPvl1
Score: 011 pts115 ptslesterJanuary 5, 2018 at 3:01 pm #3543Hey Chris,
You may notice I posted the B&T forecast with a start time of 12:00 UTC, I did this so that the 24 hour period also covers the “moon on the night/Dawn threshold” on the 7th. If I am right that a seismic change will begin this weekend, another added combo in the same time frame might produce a result… you can’t beat a confident man 🙂
I have been watching the Turks and Caicos region since the 6.0 Ecuador event on 3rd December, after this event occurred, I noted the angle of the terminator showed several slight misses on Port-Au-Prince, but always landed true on Great Inagua Island. Your screen shots have given encouragement that my analysis may be correct… thank you for that.
Also today, a 4.5 occurred at 07:38 UTC in New Ireland Region P.N.G. … approx 60 km’s South of my combo co-ordinates. If you input this time on your map, you will also see that it is Sunset in Honiara, South Solomon’s, and Dawn on 70.949’W – 36.983’S Las Ovejas, Argentina… to the minute !!. I think we should keep a serious eye on this location, for further consideration towards a future B&T forecast.
How is the fire situation there now ? I am not seeing any new reports on the BBC news channel. My power was off for a while again yesterday, strong winds have caused a lot of isolated damage here… 1 degree centigrade outside, and I had to endure a cold lunch 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 5, 2018 at 4:00 pm #3544Two significant contacts has occurred in the MAG Phi data at 13:38 UTC and 13:50 UTC. I have nothing concrete for 13:38 UTC, apart from the fact that it is Dawn in Santa Barbara, Los Angeles and Dusk in Tajikistan. However at 13:50 UTC, it is Dawn in Hayward, 18 km’s South of Berkeley, San Francisco, the sun is on longitude 26.133’W, so it is Solar Noon on most of the South Sandwich Islands… and the opposite longitude to 26.133’W = 153.867’E New Ireland Region P.N.G. … Solar Noon in Santa Barbara and Berkeley occurs today at 20:05 UTC and 20:15 UTC respectively, watch for the signs!
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 5, 2018 at 9:23 pm #3546A structure has been recorded in the EPAMp data, beginning at 17:17 UTC and terminating at 19:02 UTC. At 17:17 UTC, the longitude of the moon was 153.383’E, a close match to the longitude of the 4.5 New Ireland Region event early UTC today. At 19:02 UTC, it was Sunrise in Honiara, Solomon Islands… and the depression you see in the centre of the structure occurred at 18:08 UTC, Solar Noon in Guatemala City occurs at this time !
No solar Noon contacts were recorded for Hayward and Santa Barbara, next opportunity is Sunset/Dusk… unfortunately, if the pattern continues, ACE will be off by then !
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 6, 2018 at 12:06 am #3547Last contact before ACE went of occurred at 22:48 UTC, combine this with the suns longitude of 26.133’W at 13:50 UTC = Solar Noon / Sunset on 26.133’W – 57.812’S Saunders Island, South Sandwich Islands !
Tromso magnetometer data showed an aspect change at 21:45 UTC, longitude of the moon at this time was 89.250’E… opposite longitude to this = 90.750’W (Guatemala City !!)
Score: 011 ptsCounselorJanuary 6, 2018 at 2:06 am #3548Oh man Lester, I have been away for a little too long and can sense the excitement in these recent posts! Things are lining up on some recent things I have been looking at, but will have to return later with some information for a B&T.
We are safe and those fires have ended. The areas around Santa Barbara were ravaged by the “Thomas” fire. People have already been trying recover. Some businesses and hotels, from what I have read and heard, have tried to be of help. Hundreds of homes lost, but nice to see people coming together.
Score: 011 pts115 ptslesterJanuary 6, 2018 at 9:29 pm #3552Chris… the 19:09 UTC window has been and gone without an event occurring. However the SIS data started breaking up at 19:05 UTC, and a disturbance in the MAG Phi data started at 19:02 UTC, and terminated at 19:40 UTC. At 19:09 UTC, the moon was on 138.783’E – 6.583’N, when the disturbance terminated, it was Dawn on these very same co-ordinates !… hope now rests on a 6+ on one of your locations, or in the time we have left.
We are use to bad weather where I live, on occasions when the power is down I usually make Soup on a camping stove… but on this occasion I had run out of gas 🙁 I also have neighbours so we tend to watch out for each other… we are just hoping we don’t get a backlash from the current US East coast temperatures. I noticed on the news it had been snowing in Florida for the first time in 3 decades… does it ever snow where you live ?
Score: 011 ptsCounselorJanuary 6, 2018 at 11:47 pm #3555Glad to hear you have neighbors that can help if need be. 🙂
I know it has snowed a time or two in areas just north of me and only slightly higher elevation. In the time since I have been where I am currently, no snow…yet. I have been through snow before, but who knows what my area may look like since Ben’s line for where the cold will dip also crosses right through where I live, or just a few miles north… could feel like the high sierras here in the coming years.
Do you have eyes on Honnaira, Solomon Islands or Vanuatu still? I think there may be reason to review something there. I jumped on a couple more areas, but stopped after realizing my coverage was going to get too large. I saw a mag flux point that crossed through what appears to be central California through to Oregon and coastline of Washington again. Might still be early again for Hollister, but was curious what is coming up for you again.
There is hope for Signey’s spot too! We’ve gone too long without a 6+. TEC increasing in some other areas Ari md the globe too, so I am in the part where I hope that our extra info is guiding us to the areas with recent activity…no surprises that is.
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 7, 2018 at 1:07 pm #3557Hey Chris,
I am afraid our deadline has elapsed without a result, I know this combo works ( you have seen it once!) but I believe the lack of solar energy is putting a hold on our efforts. Some of the combo’s have hit low mag targets, so I think it is worth further attempts… not all was lost though, I got a 5.5 hit on Myanmar!.
Good call on the Mariana’s, I’m sorry it was only a 5.0 but at least you got the right area… besides, it is a better result than my 3.8 Santa Barbara 🙂 I noticed a 5.7 occurred in Nikol’skoye (my forecast here expired 23rd Dec 🙁 ) but this morning UTC, EMSC down graded it to a 5.2 yet it remains 5.7 with USGS.
My Solomon’s forecast expires at 01:29 UTC 8th January, if I had to “confidently” chose from all my forecasts posted since 19th Dec, Honiara Solomon’s would be the one I would go with !. At the time and date stated, I will have used my 20 day allowance, you might want to consider taking this on… it would be a shame for this opportunity to be missed. I work with combo’s, a 5.1 occurred today in El Salvador like I said it would… input the event time in your map and see where the Dusk threshold lies !!
My own equipment recorded a significant contact today at 09:34 UTC, longitude of the moon at this time was 70.349’W, and it was Sunrise on 70.949’W – 36.983’S Las Ovejas, I am confident something is in this region… when to post is the problem though !!
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterJanuary 7, 2018 at 3:27 pm #3560Hers’ something interesting… according to EMSC records, no earthquakes occurred in the 07:00 – 08:00 UTC range on the 4th Jan. At 06:20 UTC, there was a 4.4 in Honshu, Japan, the next one was a 4.0 in Durango, Mexico at 09:32 UTC… a period of 2 hours 12 minutes!. If you input 09:32 UTC 4th Jan in your map, and flick between this and the 07:38 UTC 5th Jan New Ireland event… they combine as Dawn / Sunrise on 70.949’W – 36.983’S Las Ovejas, Argentina !!
On 4th Jan, 06:20 UTC and 09:32 UTC also combine as Dawn / Sunrise on 81.450’W – 48.385’S Off the coast of Los Largos, Southern Chile… however, these co-ordinates are “not” on the fault line !
A point to note… my own data shows just East of Honiara, Solomon’s as the likely location, the quake event times favour San Christobal Island or the trench… either way, it will be South Solomon’s !
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 7, 2018 at 5:44 pm #3564Chris… I recorded a significant aspect change at 13:50 UTC today, the same “time contact was recorded in ACE data yesterday (ref above). It gives two options, Solar Noon on the South Sandwich Islands or Dawn on the Hayward fault near San Francisco, Hayward is 120 km’s North of Hollister… rather than post Hollister with a margin, I placed us at the potential epicentre.
Other contacts spurned me on to cash in on my collection of 22:16 UTC British Colombia Canada events 🙂
Score: 0115 pts11 ptsCounselorJanuary 8, 2018 at 2:30 pm #3568Thanks Lester!
Sorry for the delay in replying the other day. I am not sure exactly what time I have for another forecast as I return to work today. I had hoped to take a look at some more data about Solomon’s and Vanuatu. Hoping to forecast later in the day on my side of the pond, but I might not be back for a few days. Once things normalize I should be able to help out again.
I was thinking somewhere like Hayward and glad you had chosen that area. The few terminators for the moon I had looked at appeared to be closer to San Francisco Bay in the information I was using, but needed more time to see if it was that… go team B&T.
Still curious about whether something does develop north in Washington state and saw somebody post it. Looks like Quakewatch is going to get busy again.
🙂
Be back soon!
Score: 011 pts115 ptslesterJanuary 9, 2018 at 2:42 pm #3574Thank you my friend… it is nice to share disappointment with someone who also understands the frustration that accompany’s this subject !
I have been looking through Ben’s forecasting rules, to try and determine when you are allowed to re-forecast again in the same area, after your initial 20 day forecast has expired. All I could find was the following “a successful hit with a forecast longer than 20 days will not be considered for review”. There is a 7 day wait between forecasts if you are going for the prize, but I am no wiser when it relates to a standard forecast !
This seismic quiet period is becoming very frustrating… I have started falling asleep on my keyboard again 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 9, 2018 at 7:59 pm #3576Chris… I think I have been chasing my tail again, the following times relate to the terminator on my “current” forecast locations… try these on your map…
17:06 UTC = Dawn on Unalaska Basin, Aleutian Islands
06:26 UTC = Sunrise on Ascension Island Region
07:52 UTC = Dawn on Grindavic, Southwest Iceland
23:46 UTC = Sunrise on Banda Aceh – Dusk on Caicos Islands15:40 UTC = Significant aspect change in ACE MAG data 9/1
They all land on Tonga !!
Another significant aspect change occurred at 18:10 UTC… Solar Noon on Guatemala City 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 10, 2018 at 12:13 am #3578Well, there it is again Chris… 22:16:33 UTC M 2.1 British Colombia Canada !!… the Christmas puzzle continues 🙂
10/12/17 22:15:55 UTC – M 2.4 … 120.52’W – 49.39’N
11/12/17 22:16:17 UTC – M 2.1 … 120.58’W – 49.43’N
24/12/17 22:16:39 UTC – M 2.1 … 120.56’W – 49.31’N
09/01/18 22:16:33 UTC – M 2.1 … 120.54’W – 49.40’NThe mag’s are too small, and the duration between events would give no cause for anybody to give them a second look… what is the common denominator ?
Score: 011 pts115 ptslesterJanuary 10, 2018 at 11:52 am #3584Hey Chris,
At 19:09 UTC 6th January (combo day) the moon was on longitude 138.783’E, when the 7.6 North of Honduras occurred at 02:51:32 UTC today, the sun was on longitude 138.960’E… the moon left a footprint on the 6th !!
The T sequence shows the city of Managua, Nicaragua shares the same 12:08 UTC Sunrise time as the 7.6 epicentre !
A significant contact was recorded at 09:52 UTC today, the moon was on longitude 41.383’W, the opposite longitude to this is 138.617’E… Dusk on this longitude at this time occurred on 138.617’E – 10.180’N Hunters Bank, 90 km’s North of Yap, Indonesia !
We can take comfort in the fact that we both have an indirect connection to the 7.6 event
British Colombia Canada… you are currently hitting more targets than me at the moment, I was hoping you could tell me 🙂 ,still working on it, but you have to admit it is intriguing.
I saw on the news, mudslides near the Santa Barbara area… are you still safe ?
Score: 011 ptsCounselorJanuary 10, 2018 at 1:16 pm #3585Yes, still safe. I think I am still working on it because the intriguing thing I am observing my still involve Moon termination. I don’t it is working in every case, but I have an idea that I will share out here soon. If it’s another key…I need to articulate what I have as clearly as I can.
Yes, we are safe 🙂
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