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115 ptslesterJune 12, 2017 at 9:59 pm #1783
Hello SubcOder,Some would say, not actually having a formal education, puts you in an envious position regarding this topic. It means you can be open minded with new idea’s, You have not been tainted by decades of other peoples established beliefs on how things work. You won’t find transmigration in any USGS publications, nor will you find tidal pressure, moon shots, planetary alignments, rain fall distribution or pre and post seismic correlations. These idea’s have come about by people who have taught themselves alternatives rather than accepting the standard… they are self taught!.
Jupiter’s moons Io and Europa are the most volcanic and fractured bodies in the solar system, tidal forces from Jupiter is the accepted belief. Active geysers on Saturn’s moon Enseladus, launching material hundreds of kilometres into space is due to tidal forces from it’s parent planet. Earth has one of the largest and closest moons in the solar system, volcanic and seismic activity here, is due to stress and continental drift, this is in most books that I have read over the years, so it must be true… right!
Hookecho, thank you for the great analogy you used in your last post, like SubcOder, I am only aware of my little piece of the puzzle. It was easy to follow and understand, keeping it simple is always the best way to go. Hope you don’t mind that I started a new thread here, SubcOders idea… first of many good ones I hope 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterJune 13, 2017 at 10:30 pm #1785Okay, my confidence boosting speech brought the house down again, I wasn’t labelled delusional by one of the UK’s leading particle physicists for nothing… lets talk shop!
It is agreed that the sun influences seismic activity on Earth, I recently posed the question “Can the Earth influence activity on the sun ?” Here’s a scenario I have been following for the last 3 days.
Sunday June 11: I noted a significant aspect change had been recorded in online space weather data at 00:48 UTC (possible limb contact). A further aspect change was recorded at 02:14 UTC (second limb contact). I always associate unusual data changes with frequency correlations from the sun,
making contact with Earth orbiting satellites at 8 minutes LS. I thus change the recorded times to 00:40 UTC and 02:06 UTC. The times relate to Dawn and Sunrise (positive limb contact) at co-ordinates 70′ 42′ E – 26′ 31′ S Triple Junction, Central Indian Ocean Ridge… I then post a forecast accordingly (Lester: June 11, 10:09 pm)Monday June 12: A magnitude 6.3 earthquake occurs of the coast of Western Turkey at 12:28:37 UTC, on co-ordinates 26.31 E – 38.85 N. Meanwhile, Sunset is occurring on co-ordinates 70′ 42′ E – 26′ 31′ S Triple Junction at 12:29:00 UTC.
Tuesday June 13 (today): A class B 3.8 solar flare is recorded in the flux data, peaking maximum at 19:40:00 UTC. Again similarly to yesterday, it is exactly Dusk (limb contact) at co-ordinates 26.31 E – 38.85 N, epicentre of the 6.3 Turkey event !
My hypothesis is mostly based on wavelength, I am currently trying to monitor 6 such scenario’s globally. Analysis of these correlations has determined seismic contact may occur on one of these locations in the next 30 days, on approximate co-ordinates 138′ E – 6′ S, somewhere in the Triton shoal region, Eastern P.N.G. Today on this location it is Dawn at 19:40:00 UTC.
Are these coincidental happenings, or can anomalies within the Earth actually influence solar activity ?
Score: 0115 ptslesterJune 13, 2017 at 11:15 pm #1786Magnetic compression recorded in Tromso magnetometer at 21:02 UTC June 13 ( flux.phys.uit.no )
21:02 UTC -8 LS = 20:54 UTC
19:40 UTC – 20:54 UTC relate to Dawn / Sunrise on co-ordinates 138′ 34′ E – 6′ 30′ S, Taroea Anim, Eastern P.N.G.
We shall see… 🙂
Score: 0115 pts17 pts115 ptslesterJune 14, 2017 at 5:17 pm #1792Thank you for your kind words, I have been monitoring this region for 3 weeks prior to the Turkey event. The scenario above has played out several times during this period. Energy retention has survived two 6+ quakes in the last 48 hours, so this is either an active target, or a propagation hub. I confirmed its active phase was still intact using data from the ACE EPAM Proton monitor this morning (my time), a spike in the 115-195 keV range attained close to 1.OE+O4 at 08:45 UTC. Time -8 LS = 08:37 UTC, Sunset on co-ordinates 138′ 34′ E – 6′ 30′ S Taroea Anim, Western P.N.G. occurred at 08:37 UTC (June 14).
If you combine this with the previously posted data, you have an indication that this could be a potential pre seismic location, or simply put… X marks the spot 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterJune 14, 2017 at 9:52 pm #1794I don’t wish to harp on this subject any longer than necessary, but the ACE satellite feed has just shut down. The mag monitor stopped at 19:48 UTC (June 14), time -8 LS = 19:40 UTC. At this time, it is Dusk on the 6.3 epicentre Western Turkey, and Dawn in Taroea Anim, Western P.N.G. “SO” believes a powerful solar storm incapacitated airports in the UK two weeks ago, I believe potential high mag seismic anomalies are causing disruption with the ACE and DSCOVR satellite feeds… does anybody have similar opinions ?
Score: 0115 pts11 ptsCounselorJune 15, 2017 at 5:03 pm #1799Hi Lester,
Your conversations with subcoder got me curious. Just because I need a quick breakdown, are you tracking the point at which the sunrise/sunset horizon is at the time of an X-ray flux event? If so, and if you trace a line from your misses and the location of the earthquakes, are you getting a line that parallels the dawn or dusk horizon line?
Score: 011 ptsCounselorJune 15, 2017 at 5:22 pm #1800Lester- One more thing to ask… are your misses are happening in area that are more mountainous? I liked the speaker analogy that had me thinking about those speakers, which will play when connected to a source. However, if tuned to a certain frequency, they will play at all until the resonant frequency hits the antenna. No antenna, no sound played through those speakers. If our mountains were to be like the antenna, couple the higher piezo-electric value in these parts of the world, then the other factors that Ben, Hook, and Billy have shown us… perhaps that could be the other area to look at as our sun hits solar grand minimum? I am trying to track this using maps of mantle plumes, water tables (as I can’t stop thinking about the tellurium current video/electric asorbtion/rejection of water video), and fault regions, but I am having trouble keeping up since it is hard with my schedule at work/home.
Score: 0115 ptslesterJune 16, 2017 at 9:35 pm #1803Hello Councelor, thank you for your questions, I have just spent the last 2 hours responding… unfortunately, my login time must have terminated on submit, thus deleting my reply. I shall try again over the weekend… I didn’t want you thinking I was ignoring you!
Score: 0115 ptslesterJune 18, 2017 at 6:51 pm #1815Hello Councelor, regarding your question; I am not tracking anything specific, but from experience I have become accustom to observing anomalous signatures in space data, and relating them to limb contacts between Earth and the sun. As I explained earlier, if you observe a signature of significance, and assume this to be a Dawn/Sunrise contact, take note what area’s the terminator threshold encompasses at this time. When the same area’s reach Sunset/Dusk, at some point along the angle of the terminator, a further signature may develop on a specific point of the angle, thus giving away a possible seismic location… you just have to know what to look for. If the signature develops into a moderately sized event, it is possible to determine a correlation with past events, within a given period. The trick is to try and get ahead of the sequence to determine which of the anomalous signatures will develop into an active event, or become a point of propagation. I have compiled a list for you to try and demonstrate what I mean. The list comprises of correlations between all 5+ events that occurred yesterday (June 17 2017), and events of similar magnitudes from the past 20 days. The times are accurate to the minutes stated at each location, and the locations are accurate to within 5 km’s of the epicentres listed by EMSC publications.
2017-06-17 00:17:11 UTC M 5.3 Andreanof Islands, Aleutian Isles ………. SS 07:55 UTC June 17
2017-06-10 16:19:52 UTC M 5.2 Santa Cruz Islands ……………………. DK 07:55 UTC June 172017-06-17 01:21:44 UTC M 5.0 New Ireland Region, P.N.G. …………….. DN 18:38 UTC June 17
2017-06-11 16:29:55 UTC M 5.1 Ascension Islands region ………………. SS 18:38 UTC June 172017-06-17 13:47:40 UTC M 5.3 Nicaragua ……………………………. DK 01:31 UTC June 17
2017-06-10 05:42:13 UTC M 5.7 Pacific Antarctic Ridge ……………….. SS 01:31 UTC June 172017-06-17 14:23:48 UTC M 5.0 Sulawesi, Indonesia …………………… SS 09:55 UTC June 17*
2017-06-17 15:36:00 UTC M 5.0 Antofagasta, Chile ……………………. DN 09:55 UTC June 17*
( Dusk on co-ordinates 138′ 34′ E – 6′ 30′ S Taroea Anim, Western P.N.G. …. 09:55 UTC June 17)2017-06-17 16:37:23 UTC M 5.0 Vanuatu ……………………………… SR 20:19 UTC June 17
2017-06-02 17:26:29 UTC M 5.1 Ryukyu Islands, Japan …………………. DN 20:19 UTC June 172017-06-17 19:50:04 UTC M 5.0 Western Turkey ……………………….. DK 19:42 UTC June 17
2017-06-04 18:46:11 UTC M 5.0 Volcano Islands, Japan ………………… SR 19:42 UTC June 172017-06-17 22:26:02 UTC M 6.1 South of Fiji Islands …………………. SR 18:41 UTC June 17
2017-06-11 16:29:55 UTC M 5.1 Ascension Islands …………………….. SS 18:41 UTC June 17As you can see, my kind of hypothesis doesn’t really have anything to do with mountains, piezo-electric ratios, or transmigration, though the latter may play a part in energy increases before detection. Looking at these correlations, one could come to the conclusion that earthquakes are self propagating and self triggering. I have spent many years trying to have this idea investigated by a recognised scientific body… but unfortunately, I still stand alone with my beliefs.
A class B 2.5 flux event occurred at 09:20 UTC (June 18), it was sunset in Palau, Indonesia and dawn in Northern Colombia… who knows! maybe I’ll get lucky 🙂
Sorry you had to wait for a response…
Score: 037 ptsHookEchoJune 19, 2017 at 9:28 pm #1820Errump…some earthquake related papers, focus on thermal neutrons/Moon/IMF (sry, some are abstracts):
Thermal Neutrons’ Observations before The Sumatra Earthquake
http://staff.polito.it/alberto.carpinteri/related%20piezonuclear%20papers/earthquake_neutron_6_mod.pdfStudies of Neutrons Distributions near the Earth Surface in Order to Predict Space Weather
http://www.kosmofizika.ru/papers/sigaeva/sigaeva_.htmEQUIPMENT FOR THE FORECAST AND OPERATING CONTROL OF THE NATURAL CATASTROPHES DYNAMICS
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B83EkoitOiKQLVQzdk1uMXRtc2M/view?usp=sharingThermal neutrons’ response to the GLEs
http://meetings.copernicus.org/www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU06/00440/EGU06-J-00440.pdfRelated:
Solar-diurnal variations of Cosmic rays (CR), connected with the passage of the Earth through the Neutral Layer of the Interplanetary Magnetic Fields (IMF) and the earthquake problem http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/409/1/012147/meta;jsessionid=BE28184B581F94B307BF4F063592C99E.c5.iopscience.cld.iop.org-
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37 ptsHookEchoJune 20, 2017 at 2:09 am #1822No comments yet? M’cmon, discuss…fyi, the reason I had started this thread in the other section is because at the time there was next to no quakes and forecast were limited. I just wanted to provide an outlet and was also curious on the alternative forecasting methods of those who could not swing a lifetime membership at this time and give them a voice at the same time. But, technically it did not belong in that section is the reason I didn’t raise a stink. We just potentially silenced some voices that could provide some valuable insight and discussion.
I fought hard through these years in the comments section to be heard and went head to head with Ben and others on many occasions. However, I do not recommend this approach to other 0bservers. If you do, you better know your stuff, be able to back up your claims and have a thick skin. For awhile it seemed I was checking my youtube account daily to see if I had been banned from the channel the previous day for my occasional head butting sessions with S0. I still get to this very day into squabbles with Ben from time to time. It is just my personality and Ben must have saw some value in me to put up with me and keep me around 🙂
Score: 037 pts115 ptslesterJune 20, 2017 at 1:12 pm #1824There was a time when I became so obsessed with this subject, that I put it before everything else. I lost all my friends, my business suffered, my house was falling down around me, and it put a heavy strain on my marriage. The final straw came when I had one “head butting session” too many, and suffered a nervous breakdown. I ended up as a “nut job”, which seems to be word of the month in the US at the moment. Part of the problem I had, was realising there are two different agendas with predicting earthquakes. One agenda is to find an answer, there by saving thousands of lives. And another agenda for keeping the way things are, unless an “actual” published scientist discovers a sound reason, within current beliefs on how things work… so I’m afraid what ever thick skin I had then, has gone bye and bye.
Know my stuff… I would be the first to hold my hand up and admit I didn’t. It would be very naive and presumptuous of me to claim otherwise. I know pieces of my hypothesis here and there, but I don’t know how they fit together. That is why my quest to have it investigated by people more knowledgeable than myself, was so important to me.
Back up my claims… no I can’t do that either. My family confiscated my research and equipment because of the reasons stated above. As I mentioned when I joined, I am here now purely for mental exercise. I have to rely on somebody else’s data feeds to determine a forecast now, so in effect, I am here for the entertainment value, nothing more. I no longer have issues with this subject, and my family knows this, but when I am discreetly handed my cocoa and slippers, it is their way of saying turn off the monitor… I occasionally get a late post in when I sneak down for a glass of water 🙂
Regarding a detour to the chat room… It was not my intention to step on any toes here, the discussion thread was your idea and your baby, and I gave respectful consideration and option at the time… I put the ball in your park. I can understand you reason for starting it in the forecast forum, in fact, had it been there when I joined, I would have gladly continued debating quake issues for free. I would still be in pocket by $150, and so would everybody else… well, almost everybody!! This thread has been running for eight days since, and this is your first response. I have had my fill of BS and bitching in the past, and I just want to get on with the science… if you want to move this back to the forecast forum, then I repeat “I have no problem complying with your wishes”…
My method of detection is reliant on energy build ups “near the surface of the Earth”, coming into limb contact when orbital rotation brings them within range of the sun… but I can only speculate how the energy gets there. Your method is based on periodic increased energy output from the core, which migrates up to a point “near the surface of the Earth”. Every idea is a long shot, but what if A + B had the potential to equal C. You have to ask yourself what comes first, the science or standings within the realms of one’s higher peers… lets follow the true agenda and do some good here!
Thank you for the research links… I appreciate the time you have taken to source them.
Score: 037 ptsHookEchoJune 20, 2017 at 3:57 pm #1825I have no issues with this thread being in its proper place. I gave the reasons for why I had originally posted in the forecast section.
” in fact, had it been there when I joined, I would have gladly continued debating quake issues for free.” Its main intention was not to debate anything, I was mostly searching for insight on alternate forecasting methods implemented by the month to month users, and since earthquake activity was at a low and nobody was posting forecasts, something to help pass the time. Most of my posts are confined and not shared outside the lifetime members chat room, so I really have a hard time understanding your reasoning in regards.“I gave respectful consideration and option at the time… I put the ball in your park.” Ya, after you took it upon yourself to move it in the first place without contacting me beforehand, along with potentially removing SubcOder from the discussion. At least he was able to outline his forecasting method, which I was mainly interested in. Granted, it did not belong in the section and I do not argue that point. I am not claiming I was not in the wrong. ” I have had my fill of BS and bitching in the past,” Is that what you think I was doing? I was simply explaining the position.
“Your method is based on periodic increased energy output from the core, which migrates up to a point “near the surface of the Earth”. This is one of several factors actually. I have been in the game for awhile now. The posts to the papers above corroborate and strengthen my hypothesis of the passage of the neutral layer as a factor, which is a a temporary direct electrical and unique magnetic connection between Sun and Earth, producing tulleric currents along with the stressing the crust and linking thermal neutrons [95% of thermal ‘bursts’] as a pre seismic signal. It becomes complex which is why I posted the papers, not every passage is the same. This is why I requested discussion on the topic. I and another 0bserver correlated quakes for a short period utilizing thermal neutron ground stations nearby the epicenters before that was taken away from us. And several more potential factors, when I find useable data. Moving on..
” I just want to get on with the science…” Still awaiting responses and/or discussion to the research linked above.
Score: 0115 ptslesterJune 20, 2017 at 8:10 pm #1826I thought I would respond with a little bit of info on a couple of earthquakes that occurred today in the South Sandwich Islands…
2017-06-20 12:54:36 UTC M 5.3 Visokoi Island region, South Sandwich Islands, 27.081′ W – 56.263′ S
2017-06-20 13:02:29 UTC M 5.2 Visokoi Island Region, South Sandwich Islands, 27.439′ W – 56.051′ SI posted a forecast for this area last Wednesday (Lester: June 14 2017, 10:53 pm), the epicentres of the 5.3 and 5.2 occurred at 165 km’s and 136 km’s SSE of my forecast co-ordinates respectively… but are securely within my posted margin. Unfortunately, my posted magnitude was for a 6+, weather two 5’s in close proximity and closely timed occurrences could display the same signature as a 6 in space weather data, is plausible but not acceptable.
When the 5.3 occurred at 12:54:36 UTC, the sun was at an orbital distance from Earth of 152015217 km’s. When the next event occurred at 13:02:29 UTC, the sun had reseeded to a distance of 152015273 km’s, a difference of 56 km’s.
Today (June 20), Dawn occurred on co-ordinates 27.081′ W – 56.263′ S and 27.439′ W – 56.051′ S at 08:00 UTC and 08:02 UTC respectively. The Earth’s orbital rotation speed is recognised as being 1675 km/h, which equates to 29.916 km’s per minute, if we double this to match the Dawn time difference between the epicentres, two minutes equates to 55.833 km’s… very close to the distance the sun travelled between the event times.
As you probably know, the Dawn and Dusk times are defined to the minute, and related to the sun’s lateral position below the horizon. Sunrise and Sunset are defined by a band period, related to duration on the horizon i.e sunrise duration today in Kodiak Island, Alaska is 13:18 – 13:24 UTC = 6 minutes. Sunrise today in Java, Indonesia is 23:08 – 23:10 UTC = 2 minutes etc. If you go to co-ordinates 13′ 14′ W – 23′ 26′ N, you end up in the Western Sahara, East of Mijek. Yesterday, the Sunset band at this location was between 19:40 UTC and 19:43 UTC… 19:40 UTC and 19:43 UTC are also the times of Dusk on the 5.2 and 5.3 epicentres respectively. Today, the sun was on 13′ 14′ W – 23’26 N at 12:54:36 UTC… same time the 5.3 occurred!
Near the beginning of this thread, I posted information related to the 6.3 event in Western turkey. on the day the event occurred, Dusk at the epicentre was at the same time as Dusk is at the 5.3 event is today 19:40 UTC. Dusk on the 6.3 epicentre now is 19:43 UTC, same as the 5.2 event!
Speculation – major seismic events are leaving a footprint in Earth’s magnetic field, when the right orbital combination is achieved, parallel area’s within the terminator threshold, `related to position at the time of the event, can become active!
I always find a lot of correlations, but I need help putting the pieces together… unfortunately, that appears to have been blow again. I just wanted to do a little science before I regretfully excuse myself from this thread. There have been misunderstandings on both sides, I don’t do squabbles, and I don’t play ping pong with words… so I am bowing out to your better judgement, and sincerely wish you the best with your transmigration theories.
Score: 037 ptsHookEchoJune 20, 2017 at 9:30 pm #1827Well that is not the intention or response I was hoping for at all. How are we supposed to move forward if one is to run when both have spoken their respective sides on an irrelevant issue and were ready to move on? During solar sector boundary crossings (passage of the IMF neutral layer) the Van Allen belts expand and contract in a sort of ‘breathing’ fashion. I intentionally posted the above papers because our observations I believe are interrelated. I discovered the correlation long before those papers were painstakingly eventually located. There are missing pieces to my observations in regards to passage of the neutral layer and seismic events, and we may be onto yet another progressive step forward. I do hope you reconsider your decision, because it is the world that will benefit in the long run if we can successfully intertwine our observations.
Score: 0115 ptslesterJune 20, 2017 at 10:59 pm #1828If you think a professional squabbler, who always comes out on top, and a cantankerous old fool with a few marbles missing, can hit it off and make a difference to seismic science… that alone is worth paying $150 to see 🙂 I admire your passion for what you are trying to achieve, and I have already concluded for myself that you are much smarter than me. I am more the engineer/experimental type, I can find the pieces, but it will be someone like you that will eventually put them together, and find an answer.
I have had a framed inscription hanging on my wall for years “Sed tantum de tempore”. I would like to think this is possible before I reach the stage that I need help to go to the bathroom… a few years left in the old dog before I have to worry about that though!
This is your show… so where do we start?
Score: 037 pts37 ptsHookEchoJune 21, 2017 at 5:19 am #1838Just a quick note, thus far I can pass on magnetospheric electric fields and/or the ionosphere are affected during dawn/dusk periods.
The are two main sources of magnetospheric electric fields. One is the solar wind related, dawn-to-dusk directed (“convection”) field, and the other is the co-rotation electric field related to the rotation of the Earth along its spin axis. Is this information useful? Or am I completely off track? We may be venturing into the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere-Magnetosphere Coupling System territory. I will continue to analyze your descriptions in order to gain a better grasp on your observations. Here is a great book on this subject:
Sergey Pulinets Ionospheric Precursors of Earthquakes: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B83EkoitOiKQY2Z3LXVVRktkT1k/view?usp=sharing-
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11 ptsCounselorJune 21, 2017 at 2:53 pm #1843Hello Hook and Lester. Not sure if these data have already been eliminated. I have been taking my time looking at IMF boundary crossings, in tandem with where latest quakes were appearing along our own Earth’s positive and negative boundaries. I am using a list that I found:
http://wso.stanford.edu/SB/SB.htmlAt first what I thought I was seeing was an earthquake taking place within opposite polarity on earth relative to the positive or negative boundary our earth seemed connected to at the time. This is me eyeballing it as a layman. Then more earthquakes occurred during boundary crossing. Last earthquakes during this drought seem to represent the day, +\- the day, of the boundary crossing.
Is this a valuable pursuit? Or, has this already been ruled out?
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