Observational analysis… M 7.4 Kermadec islands 18/6/20

[Karma: 115 pts]

lester

June 19, 2020 at 4:03 pm #9030

Elements… Sun – Moon – ATB – ATE – RLT – SLT

ATB = Astronomical Twilight Begins … official point were night becomes day
ATE = Astronomical Twilight Ends … official point were day becomes night
RLT = Rising Lunar Threshold … foreglow on horizon prior to Moonrise
SLT = Setting Lunar Threshold … Afterglow on horizon after Moonset

The RLT / SLT periods average 4 minutes before and after moonrise / moonset, but this can vary in relation to orbital distance, and lateral position relative to earth. The sun and moon positions are calculated as longitude relative to earth, and marginal difference with respect to the moon, has been calculated as within one degree of longitude. My hypothesis is based on electromagnetic correlations, but in many of my observations, the moon has been calculated as being within one degree of target location… or within the equivalent “4 minute” period !

Players…

2020-06-18 – 12:49:53 UTC – M 7.4 South of the Kermadec islands… 177’838’W – 33.294’S (177’49’W – 33’16’S)
2020-06-13 – 15:51:23 UTC – M 6.6 WNW of Naze, Japan… 128.262’E – 28.939’N (128’15’E – 28’55’N)
2020-06-10 – 19:58:50 UTC – M 6.0 Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge… 13.047’W – 15.773’S (13’02’W – 15’46’S)

Tools…

http://www.timeanddate.com
http://www.sunrisesunsetmap.com
http://www.fourmilab.ch

The idea of this hypothesis is to determine a sequence of events using the elements stated, which precede seismic and volcanic activity… up to several days or weeks prior to occurrence. All the elements described are naturally occurring every day, but it is a question of “odds” weather they correlate to specific pre seismic / volcanic locations, within an acceptable period of time !

Analysis…

On 18th June at 12:49:53 UTC, an M 7.4 event occurred South of the Kermadec Islands in the southwest Pacific. One of the first things I do when seismic events occur, is to check sun, moon and threshold positions on my model at time of occurrence. My model is a global twilight map, similar to the T & D maps, and it incorporates positions of previous 5+ events during a period of 4 weeks… or longer for significant events. It gives indication of threshold correlations between seismic locations, and I use this to go forward in time to try and calculate future forecasts. Or in the case of this M 7.4 Kermadec Islands event, I used it to go back in time to see if any significant correlations occurred with other post seismic locations. This is kind of like checking the sunrise / sunset history of this location (T sequence), and taking note of any significant patterns, or correlating ephemeral points i.e. first or last minute of Perigee / Apogee etc.

On 5th June between times 18:58:35 UTC – 19:00:34 UTC it was Full Moon, and this was accompanied by a partial lunar eclipse (penumbral). On checking the pre seismic Kermadec epicentre for this day, I noted that it was both sunrise and moonset on this location at 18:49 UTC… the moon was located on longitude 77’19’E approx 9 minutes before Full Moon. Prior to 18:49 UTC, this sun / moon partnership was already playing out east of the Kermadecs, but this was occurring on the Pacific plate. Therefore, the first tectonic boundary this partnership came into contact with, was South of the Kermadec Islands. However on the other hand, this partnership continued for several hundred miles, even after the Full Moon period. And transited across the next seismically active region of North Island, New Zealand. It poses the question why this event occurred at the coordinates stated, over the many other locations and coordinates it could have occurred on ? One possible reason may relate to a pre seismic correlation from “12 hours” earlier.

On 10th June at 19:58:50 UTC, an M 6.0 event occurred on the Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Going back in time to 5th June 06:49 UTC, the SLT threshold was located on this pre seismic epicentre… and the sun was located on longitude 77’24’E. Therefore “12 hours” later, the sunrise / moonset partnership was located on the pre seismic Kermadec epicentre, and the moon was within 5 minutes of arc of the suns longitude position.

As stated above, the SLT ephemeral point occurs 4 minutes after moonset, therefore, time of SLT on the pre seismic Kermadec epicentre on 5th June, occurred at 18:53 UTC. On 13th June at 15:51:23 UTC, an M 6.6 event occurred in Naze, Japan. On 5th June at 18:53 UTC, the ATB threshold was located on this pre seismic epicentre.

The T sequence indicates that of the four 6+ events that have occurred since 5th June, three of these events correlate to this date. I don’t know the scientific relevance of the RLT / SLT periods, or how a “12 hour” window always seems to correspond with my calculations. But I believe the main contributor to the occurrence of this 7+ event in the Kermadec’s, was the fact that a penumbral lunar eclipse was in progress during these stated periods. However, I must state that records show this is not always the case, but specific pre seismic correlations, combined with infrequent solar /lunar events, may play a key part in the eventual outcome. As example, on 26th December 2019 between times 05:15:00 UTC – 05:16:55 UTC, it was New Moon, and this was accompanied by an annular solar eclipse. At “12 hours” earlier 17:15:02 UTC 25th December, the sun was located on longitude 78’45’W. On 28th January at 19:10:24 UTC, an M 7.7 event occurred off the coast of Cuba, on coordinates “78’45’W” – 19’24’N. Position and event correlate through calculation, but is there an actual relationship, or just coincidental ?

The fourth 6+ event that did not figure in the 5th June calculations, was an M 6.2 event in the Northern Mariana Islands. This event occurred on 13th June at 21:08:30 UTC, on coordinates 145.103’E – 18.922’N (145’06’E – 18’55’N). In my San Francisco forecast, dated April 16 2020 in the main prediction forum. I gave account of the high frequency of solitary activity from Mt Sakurajima volcano in Kyushu, Japan between 2nd -6th June. Since these dates, Mt Sakurajima volcano has erupted and exploded a further 5 times. The last of these events, to the time of this post, occurred at 02:19 UTC 10th June… at 02:19:05 UTC 10th June, the sun was located on longitude “145’06’E” !

From long account and experience, I can appreciate that must will see this analysis as insignificant. And I also know conformation of this data will not be forthcoming… too labour intensive for most people. This analysis was provided for record, and example of calculating the odds !

Thank you

Lester

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