Successful Prediction!

[Karma: 19 pts]

BeccasArt

May 14, 2019 at 3:05 pm #6014

I finally got a hit on a bigger one
practically a direct hit even:
USGS has downgraded this
to a M7.5 from initial 7.7,
Kokopo, PNG.
My prediction, in effect til the 16th,
was set at Palabong – only 11.6km from
the epicenter.
While I’m at it, also claiming all M4.5+ aftershocks.
-Rebecca

Score: 0

[Karma: 29 pts]

Ben Davidson "S0"

May 15, 2019 at 10:51 am #6016

I am sorry Becca – but there were a ton of places on alert, 10 actually. While I cannot tell off hand how much of the fault zones are on alert, I CAN tell that the range – 4.5 to 8.5 —is way way too large.

Please review the instructions again – you cannot place this large of a range on the magnitude.

It is a shame too, because this would have won’t the money and the conference tickets for 2020.

Score: 0

[Karma: 115 pts]

lester

May 15, 2019 at 4:32 pm #6017

Hi Becca… I for one would like to pass on my congrats to you for this marvellous effort. I can relate to you in this respect because I know what it is like to see that big red spot on the map, or bold red in the listings… natural reaction would be to shake your fists and shout “YES” without knowing you have done this. However, I have not had opportunity to do this for a while, so I have to remind myself what it feels like by looking at myself doing it in an old picture… 🙂 .

I have noted how close you have come to several significant events since you joined the group, so it indicates that you do have methodology with your forecasts. As Ben stated above though, it is unfortunate in this case that you missed on technicalities, but you have to remember with each “high and low” you experience, you are learning a little more with each occasion. This will inevitably contribute towards improving your method, and therefore help to develop your skill factor (you will learn what is relevant, and what is not).

There are two different aspects to prediction, the science aspect and the entertainment aspect, and this site does give you the option to try both if desired. I have to admit I came here from the science scene, complete with my checker-ed jacket and bow tie. But after the 2 plus years I have been here, I now sport a T shirt with palm trees and wear a base ball hat :). My bow tie attitude at the start tended to place me in positions out side my comfort zone. Or for lack of better scientific terminology “put my foot in it”. But I have mellowed or “chilled” as they say, yet I still like to peruse the scientific route. And this is one reason why I was going for 5+ events for a couple of months. I believe I have methodology, but it is a bit like trying to do a rubrics cube… I turn one side and give it a little time (experiment) to see if I have lined up any of the colours correctly.

The entertainment aspect is interesting, but it is mostly a game of “chance” like any competition. I know not what your level of seismic knowledge relates to, but you can appreciate that with each occasion you are formulating your forecasts, you are learning something more about earthquakes. My wife posts submissions to magazine competitions, and obviously she is trying to win the advertised prize. But while she is doing this, she is sourcing answers on the internet and therefore gaining “general” knowledge.

As mentioned, you have on several occasions missed significant events by only a short distance, or due to expired time periods. If the ultimate goal is to win the prize in any competitive environment. Then in this case may I suggest that forecasts of 6.5 – 7.5 with a 300 km margin of error, which comply with the required area of competition stipulations (ring of fire etc) would greatly increase the odds in your favour. From a scientific point of view, if your selected region experienced an M 6.3 for example,it would be deemed as a negative result in respect of your forecast. But there are people here like myself who would look on this as significant, because it signifies that you poses a level of skill (skill factor) that you employed in your related forecast determinations. The occurrence of earthquakes can be related to several different pre-seismic factors, meaning locating an earthquake before it happens is the easiest part of the process. The hard parts are determining when it is going to happen, and what magnitude it is going to attain. These aspects are deemed as “chance” which still relates to the level of seismic science we embrace today… and to the competitive aspect of the subject.

This can be a lonely pursuit that we are engaged in… but I have had the privilege of my efforts for a positive result, being aired on Ben’s Daily show. So you can appreciate that you can imagine others around the world have been informed of your achievement… and therefore a good feeling. However,the reality is that unless you live in an area of like minded people who can appreciate what you have achieved, the euphoria does not go beyond your dwelling. So when something like your achievement here occurs, you can only share “what was nearly” with your computer, cup of coffee and your cat if you have one… therefore lonely !. In my opinion you are good at this, and as significant as this miss was, do not let it bring you down. I just wanted you to know that along with your alleged cat… someone a few thousand miles away has noticed too !.

Hope I did not trip over my bow tie again here with this message… it was not my intention. I will finish now because I am debating weather to try the blue colour on my rubrics cube next, or go to the local store and buy some Caribbean music to go with my T shirt 🙂

Well done !

Score: 0

[Karma: 19 pts]

BeccasArt

May 16, 2019 at 12:19 am #6018

To Ben,
All due respect, I take issue with the rejection of my successful prediction, ..this is discouraging to me, and a confusing response from you.
-Did I miss another competition announcement since the last one? Is there a competition you started again for 2020 OTF? If not, (or even if there is) then why place shame on my effort?
I got this one! Do you have any idea how much time and care I put into examining the factors happening in the data sets and weather systems to come forth with a list of locations?
What exactly do you mean by “a ton of alerts”??
Yess, there is 10 actually. When you really look at the tonnes of locations NOT on alert in this case, the RofF, it is not more than a third or even 25%, especially since my windows aren’t plastering whole countries or regions with a pen with no strict radius windows. You made a point of radius criteria for the OTF lodging competition, but in your rules throughout the page, you say nothing about radius requirements.
Why is that?
When I first started this last year, I saw the NEPEC/USGS guidelines pdf MUST READ link, and I have followed the guidelines carefully – SPECIFIC (cities, towns, regions offshore, etc) locs w/ km radius windows, and magnitude range windows, dates timeframes, just like instructed.
I decided to lower my usual 5.0 lowest probability to 4.5, because I saw you tweeted about that. You knew I was posting with this format which is prescribed in the pdf and by you, yet you waited til I finally nail a bigger one to send me a message that it wasn’t what you want.

According to what you have on the guidelines page, you say,
“We must be able to tell where your alert zones begin and end, with enough certainty that a reasonable observer can determine if a subsequent earthquake falls within the alert zone. This is where making an ‘alert map’ is helpful. It is important that you keep alert areas small and specific- we will not review forecasts with more than 25% of the ring of fire on the highest level of alert.”
– I’ve kept mine small and specific. The last part of the last sentence is vague – what is meant by “highest level of alert”?
It is my opinion – no offense – that alot of what you’ve written for the rules are too round aboutish. I would like it if you would clarify, organize, enumerate, simplify. Wait, what? We are restricted in Indonesia forecasts?

Isn’t a member supposed to officially claim the success on this forum? The last one in Japan didn’t, yet he still got mentioned on video the next day, for a 6 pointer. I guess you claimed the hit for him then? My win for the team was a 7.5 yet the success it doesn’t get the time of day to encourage the observers with a report, because of a labyrinth of rules.
I will keep going with predictions and remember this as my own personal win for the team, and an indication that I’ve made progress and will get at least one big one before too long, perhaps even in a competition win.

To Lester,
I appreciate your words of kudos and history doing this and advice. In the competition leading up to OTF19, I was not going any higher of radius window than Ben said, and was trying to do everything else. In regular time, I don’t want it over 250 km at the most. I’m not planning to give up just yet. Yes, there have been many near hits for smaller and larger quakes, and yesterday’s is significant! I’m doing this because seismic events are a serious human experience, and for the science, attunement with the GEC, intuition, and because I’m interested in learning about this and more along the way.
Yes, I have a four wonderful cats, and they misbehave now and then, but mostly are very uplifting company.

Regards,
Rebecca

Score: 0