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14 ptsTayrance AllenApril 12, 2020 at 8:11 pm #8687Alert set on April 12th, 2020 @20:10 until April 18th, 2020 @21:00 UTC Time for the following regions:
Highest alerts
Japan- 500km radius of Shikotan: 6.3 – 7.3
Indonesia- 500km radius of Tobela: 6.0 – 7.0
Columbia- 500km radius of : 5.9 – 6.9Moderate alerts
Score: 0
Alaska – 500km radius of Little Sitkin Island: 5.3 – 6.3
Easter Island- 500km radius of 35.869°S 103.883°W: 5.3 – 6.3
New Mexico- 1000km radius of Cimarron: 2.8 – 3.8
Texas- 500km radius of Fort Davis: 2.5 – 3.515 ptsCanyonratApril 14, 2020 at 6:10 am #8693Tayrance, bringing my Seismic Observational Skills into your forecast and to gain practice in this area. This is not critical or judgemental, just what my system shows. And my system is still BETA stage LOL! Also, I do not forecast this area and am not familiar with the nuances of the region.
Nothing obvious for Shikotan. It suggests 4.3 to 5.3 with the energy that struck “M 4.4 – 42km NE of Shikotan, Russia 2020-04-12 13:47:45 (UTC) 44.041°N 147.127°E 87.5 km depth” (add depth makes it a M 4.55) was what we would look for 4/10 to 4/17. but there is still time in your forecast.
Tobela shows 3°52’58.12″S 124°23’52.22″E as the center point 370km/230mls from Tobela with 4.7-5.7 energy striking now or another wave coming in about 7 days from now. Depth of the quake would bring M up .2 every 100km depth.
Columbia is totally not my area. LOL I just follow stuff coming up through Japan to Alaska is my area.
Little Sitkin Island does not show on my method. But a broader look at it shows a repeat or in-fill quake based off of the 5.2 from M 5.2 – 299km SSW of Severo-Kuril’sk, Russia 2020-04-13 01:42:51 (UTC) 48.211°N 154.468°E 35.0 km depth. So a 5.2+ from 4/13 to 4/20 near Little Sitkin Island.
Easter Island also totally out of my area. LOL.
Cimarron New Mexico does not show on my method.
Fort Davis, does show a slight progression of quakes south east ward from the bi 5.0 on 3/26 in Texas. This would be a good call as the energy usually should run EEN.
Cimarron does not show on my method, BUT I am looking NW corner of New Mexico a and SE Central Colorado, which both of those might be changed/modified.
Score: 0115 pts
14 pts15 ptsCanyonratApril 18, 2020 at 6:48 pm #8729Your 7.3 might be low. With the 6.6 that just struck south of Japan, using the depth to magnitude chart it adds .9 strength so it was a 7.5. We should see larger then 7.5 strike shallow further along the plate boundary (North of the 6.6 quake). AND OR we could see it ride the Mendocino Trench and ram into California right where I have a new warning from 4 days ago for 6.0-8.0 Northern California between the two Volcanoes. This 6.6 matches the 7.5 NE of Japan from March 25, 2020.
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 1
14 pts15 ptsCanyonratApril 19, 2020 at 6:42 pm #8736Tayrance, did you mean San Andres, Columbia (the Island)? Island coordinates ( 12°34’35.59″N 81°42’20.43″W ). Maybe you were day dreaming of a vacation somewhere warm while typing! The island look remarkably relaxing from space. LOL
Onto an observation I am seeing. It seems like we are getting a larger wave of seismic activity for a day, then back down to a moderate wave of seismic activity, then under M 3.5 “quiet” energy, and then repeat. Usually we have 5 to 7 days of larger energy rolling about.
Score: 0 -
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