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115 ptslesterJuly 12, 2021 at 8:11 pm #10743
Saturday 3rd July 14:29 UTC = X Class 1.6 solar flare from departing sunspot AR2838
Sun located on longitude 36’10’W … opposite longitude calculates as 143’50’E
Moon located on longitude 109’03’W … opposite longitude calculates as 70’57’EThursday 8th July 11:17:29 UTC = M 5.2 Izu Islands Region 143.665’E – 31.975’N ( 143’39’E – 31’58’N )
Friday 9th July 20:23:43 UTC = M 5.3 East of Namie, Japan 143.885’E – 37.237’N ( 143’52’E – 37’13’N )
Saturday 10th July 02:14:43 UTC = M 5.8 Rasht, Tajikistan 70.572’E – 38.959’N ( 70’34’E – 38’57’N )
For many years, I have been a firm believer that significant solar flares, can influence seismic activity on earth at the moment of occurrence. However, this does not necessarily mean that an immediate seismic response would be forthcoming. Influence can also depend on the location of the instigating sunspot, as not all solar flares will correlate to future seismicity. The most influential flares are produced from arriving, departing, or earth facing sunspots, and other examples related to this subject can be found in this chat room.
I have source all locations of M 5+ events since this X class flare occurred, in relation to solar / lunar positions, and associated thresholds… as per my methodology. And the events listed above are “currently” the only ones that fall into this category. It is not uncommon for 5+ events to occur off the east coast of Honshu, Japan. But these are normally within the 141-142 longitude range. The one listed above occurred in the sea floor region east of the subduction zone. And was the first to occur in the 143 range since 6th November 2020. The last event to occur in 143 range in the Izu Islands Region, was on 13th May 2019. As for Tajikistan, the last 5.5+ event to occur within 3 degrees of longitude 70’34’E, occurred as an M 5.8 on 5th May 2017. On 3rd July, I actually posted a forecast for Honshu based on this assessment, but on reflection I believe I was aiming to high with magnitude. And believe I was influenced by all the hype on this day… first X class flare in 4 years etc. I also believe that something significant may still reside in this region, due to observed post seismic correlations… and will be addressing this again !
On Friday 9th July, these three locations were once again reunited, and this led me to speculate that a potential pre seismic anomaly my be residing Southeast of the Loyalty islands. On 9th July at 19:10:29 UTC, it was moonrise on the M 5.2 Izu Islands epicentre, and the moon was located on longitude 109’03’W (ref; X flare data above). At 19:12:04 UTC, it was sunrise on the Honshu epicentre east of Namie, and the moon was located on longitude 109’26’W… the opposite longitude calculates as 70’34’E Rasht, Tajikistan. In the middle of these correlations, at 19:11 UTC, it was both sunrise and moonrise Southeast of the Loyalty Islands on coordinates 172’17’E – 22’33’S… this has also been addressed !
Another interesting point that many will be unaware of, because they don’t follow my method. When the X class flare occurred on 3rd July at 14:29 UTC, the ATE threshold was located on coordinates 98.240’E – 34.592’N ( 98’14’E – 34’35’N ). On Friday 21st May at 18:04:13 UTC, an M 7.3 event occurred in Southern Qinghai, China on these coordinates. This of course could be coincidental; the first X class flare in 4 years, correlating to the most recent 7+ event, and the first 7+ event to occur in China since 12th May 2008. Or is it feasible to suggest that “some” flares are occurring due to correlations with influential locations on earth ?… more math !
On Thursday 8th July at 22:49:48 UTC, an M 6.0 event occurred in Nevada USA on coordinates 119.500’W – 38.500’N ( 119’30’W – 38’30’N).
Friday 2nd July 14:31:00 UTC = Moon located on longitude 119’30’W
Saturday 3rd July 02:31 UTC = C class 5.7 solar flare from sunspot AR2838
Thursday 8th July 22:49:48 UTC = M 6.0 Nevada USA
Friday 9th July 10:50 UTC = C Class 7.0 solar flare from sunspot AR2840
Friday 9th July 07:55 UTC = C class 6.0 solar flare from sunspot AR2840
Friday 9th July 19:55:00 UTC = Moon located on longitude 119’47’WIt is also interesting to note, when the M 5.2 event occurred in the Izu Islands at 11:17:29 UTC, it was moonrise on the M 6.0 Nevada epicentre !
Another potential pre seismic location may be in the Sea of Okhotsk on coordinates 150.49’E – 49.90’N ( 150’29’E – 49’54’N ). When the X class flare occurred at 14:29 UTC 3rd July, it was Moonrise at this location. Going back to 21st May and the M 7.3 Qinghai, China event at 18:04:13 UTC, on this day, it was sunrise at 18:04 UTC on the Sea of Okhotsk coordinates, and earlier on this day at 02:29 UTC, the RLT (moonrise) was located on the same location. Correlations occurring in May, were prior to the sun reaching its most northern latitude of 23’26’N for the summer solstice period. Heading south again during July, on Monday 12th July at 18:04 UTC, it was again sunrise on the Sea of Okhotsk coordinates. Earlier on this day at “14:29 UTC”, the ATB threshold was located on the same coordinates… to be addressed !
A third potential pre seismic location may also reside in Bhutan. The ATE threshold was located on Bhutan when the X class flare occurred at 14:29 UTC 3rd July. The next most significant solar flare on this day, was a M class 2.7 flare at 07:17 UTC. At this time, the SLT (moonset was located on Bhutan. Correlating both solar flares equates to coordinates 90.87’E – 29.95’N ( 90’52’E – 27’57’N ), which corresponds to Saidu in the Bhutan-China border region. On Wednesday 7th July at 03:15:24 UTC, an M 5.3 event occurred in Meghalaya on coordinates 90.30’E – 25.95’N ( 90’18’E – 25’57’N ). On 3rd July at 07:17 UTC, the SLT was also located on this epicentre too !
To confuse matters further, on Friday 9th July at 06:01:47 UTC, the sun was located on 90’52’E Bhutan, and it was sunset on the stated Loyalty Islands coordinates. At “12-hours” later 18:01:47 UTC, it was sunrise on the stated Sea of Okhotsk coordinates !
I have been including “standard” and decimal coordinates were possible, which corresponds with data sourced from the “Heavens above” website… in case my data is subject to scrutiny. I have been noting discrepancies between rival sites relating to the same subjects: sunrise / sunset etc. The most accurate source of data was provided by USNO (United States Naval Observatory), but this has been offline since October 2019, slated to return in the fall of 2020, but there is still no response !
It may be asked whether a discrepancy of a minute or two, makes any difference to finding pre seismic anomalies… well, yes it does. Calculate coordinates from a website with a “two minute” discrepancy using my method, and you end up in Maule, Chile… instead of Atacama !!
https://www.heavens-above.com/sun.aspx
Thank you
Score: 0115 ptslesterJuly 12, 2021 at 8:16 pm #10745https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/archive/2021/07/03/xray.html
Score: 0115 ptslesterJuly 12, 2021 at 10:57 pm #10746https://www.livescience.com/caspian-sea-explosion-mud-volcano.html
An interesting coincidence… or not !!
On Sunday 4th July at 04:30 UTC, it was moonset on coordinates 150.49’E – 49.90’N Sea of Okhotsk. At “12-hours” later 16:30 UTC, a mud volcano explodes in the Caspian Sea, off the coast of Azerbaijan !!
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