Forum Replies Created
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19 pts
19 ptsBeccasArtJune 25, 2019 at 2:59 am #6122
Score: 0Ring of Fire #earthquake predictions;
300km radius window; time of post
as alert window frame
Locations:
Santa Clarita, CA, M5.5 – 6.5
Ferndale, CA, M6.2 – 7.2
Yaroi, Fiji, M5.5 – 6.5
Auckland, NZ M7.2 – 8.2
See https://t.co/RqBRl60J9J pic.twitter.com/Mu0Z2nimlf— Rebecca Jo Steelman (@Rebeccas_Art) June 25, 2019
19 ptsBeccasArtJune 24, 2019 at 4:37 am #6119Yes Ben, it was a surprise big tremor, and so close! Thanks for checking in. Seeing the OLR, it’s swathed in tan, negative, so probably shouldve made another prediction today further, but was busy in art then had to come to work. Still going to take stabs, hoping to do well.
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 1
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19 ptsBeccasArtJune 4, 2019 at 11:25 pm #6066Hi Terrence – heads up my friend;
Score: 0
by extending same exact highest alert areas again, you are not in compliance with contest rule 5, which says:
“…After 7 days of being on alert, an area cannot be placed back on alert for 7 more days.
b. Epicenter of M7.5+ earthquake cannot have been on alert for more than 50% of the preceding 20 day period.”
Ben didn’t mention this in his review.
We have to watch out for each other. Just looking out for fairness, and the team to have real success according to the guidelines he’s set. I’ve made admonishments, but everything is still as is, so just observing & going with what’s here. Have a good day, Rebecca
19 ptsBeccasArtMay 16, 2019 at 12:19 am #6018To Ben,
All due respect, I take issue with the rejection of my successful prediction, ..this is discouraging to me, and a confusing response from you.
-Did I miss another competition announcement since the last one? Is there a competition you started again for 2020 OTF? If not, (or even if there is) then why place shame on my effort?
I got this one! Do you have any idea how much time and care I put into examining the factors happening in the data sets and weather systems to come forth with a list of locations?
What exactly do you mean by “a ton of alerts”??
Yess, there is 10 actually. When you really look at the tonnes of locations NOT on alert in this case, the RofF, it is not more than a third or even 25%, especially since my windows aren’t plastering whole countries or regions with a pen with no strict radius windows. You made a point of radius criteria for the OTF lodging competition, but in your rules throughout the page, you say nothing about radius requirements.
Why is that?
When I first started this last year, I saw the NEPEC/USGS guidelines pdf MUST READ link, and I have followed the guidelines carefully – SPECIFIC (cities, towns, regions offshore, etc) locs w/ km radius windows, and magnitude range windows, dates timeframes, just like instructed.
I decided to lower my usual 5.0 lowest probability to 4.5, because I saw you tweeted about that. You knew I was posting with this format which is prescribed in the pdf and by you, yet you waited til I finally nail a bigger one to send me a message that it wasn’t what you want.According to what you have on the guidelines page, you say,
“We must be able to tell where your alert zones begin and end, with enough certainty that a reasonable observer can determine if a subsequent earthquake falls within the alert zone. This is where making an ‘alert map’ is helpful. It is important that you keep alert areas small and specific- we will not review forecasts with more than 25% of the ring of fire on the highest level of alert.”
– I’ve kept mine small and specific. The last part of the last sentence is vague – what is meant by “highest level of alert”?
It is my opinion – no offense – that alot of what you’ve written for the rules are too round aboutish. I would like it if you would clarify, organize, enumerate, simplify. Wait, what? We are restricted in Indonesia forecasts?Isn’t a member supposed to officially claim the success on this forum? The last one in Japan didn’t, yet he still got mentioned on video the next day, for a 6 pointer. I guess you claimed the hit for him then? My win for the team was a 7.5 yet the success it doesn’t get the time of day to encourage the observers with a report, because of a labyrinth of rules.
I will keep going with predictions and remember this as my own personal win for the team, and an indication that I’ve made progress and will get at least one big one before too long, perhaps even in a competition win.To Lester,
I appreciate your words of kudos and history doing this and advice. In the competition leading up to OTF19, I was not going any higher of radius window than Ben said, and was trying to do everything else. In regular time, I don’t want it over 250 km at the most. I’m not planning to give up just yet. Yes, there have been many near hits for smaller and larger quakes, and yesterday’s is significant! I’m doing this because seismic events are a serious human experience, and for the science, attunement with the GEC, intuition, and because I’m interested in learning about this and more along the way.
Yes, I have a four wonderful cats, and they misbehave now and then, but mostly are very uplifting company.Regards,
Score: 0
Rebecca
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19 ptsBeccasArtMarch 7, 2019 at 8:40 am #5780Hi Tayrence! We missed the big one and aftershocks northeast of NZ, but another one for the team – you got the 5.6 centered in Ambunti. Great job, make sure you claim it. I almost picked a location near there too in my most recent forecast.
-RebeccaThis post has received 1 vote up.Score: 1
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19 ptsBeccasArtNovember 27, 2018 at 12:20 am #5378Thank you both for the communications, much appreciated 😊 I spotted the instructions, and also the pdf post from Ben, downloaded and read. So I will say that all the predictions I’ve posted on the 23rd have a time frame of 7 days to the 30th. The suggested radius of 100km (62mi) in an example, to which I thought a 150km radius – equal to 92 miles would be reasonable – this is what I’m applying to these recent predictions posted on the 23rd.
Score: 0
Good luck likewise! My method is what is intuition, luck, and of course what’s taught on quakewatch.net, though I’m still not sure about the OLR map, which dark patches – the blue to hot pink, or the brown, or both? I’m an artist, and in terms of value scale, they are both dark patches.
-Rebecca -
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