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15 ptsCanyonratJune 6, 2022 at 1:10 am #10874
subc0der, please join us over on https://www.facebook.com/groups/earthquakesdownunder
It is very dynamic and provides a lot of tools “links” that can help in forecasting.
I do not recommend abandoning quakewatch, but just adding your forecasts over at EarthquakesDownunder.
Personally I follow the Dutchsinse methodology, however I am very clear and certain that Blot Echoes provide a significant tool to forecast that largest quakes.
You will find friends over at EarthquakesDownunder. Quake forecasting can be a very lonely endeavour, but with friends and activity it becomes alot more fun and rewarding.
Canyonrat aka Mark Honey
Score: 015 pts15 pts15 pts15 ptsCanyonratMay 29, 2021 at 7:10 pm #10617A review of this “Watch”. Conclusion: I was correct in seeing a wave of energy coming into North America. I broke this review down to a 12 week view in three parts. Pre-activity. Watch window activity. Post-activity.
Pre-activity
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Canyonrat.
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15 ptsCanyonratMay 24, 2021 at 8:25 am #10608We need direct communication! Real time, perhaps cell numbers, perhaps email. But we must keep it limited. Even if that keeps me out of the “loop”. I am ok with that. Also, we need training on communication for other languages. I can help with that. In a few sentences I can help with how European based languages can translate better. Our societies us too much “slang”, and that should end, and that is not for us to engage in. But I can help just us.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratMay 24, 2021 at 8:18 am #10607I think that there are those of us that work diligently at BIG quakes by watching solar activity and Earth Energy, those that work diligently at medium quakes (me!), those that work diligently at geographic area quakes (me!), those that work diligently at volcanic related quakes, and those that work diligently at other obscure methods. I will say this! No single method can forecast and help others by them selves. We need to ask for help when we observe incoming energy. We as a group might save thousands of lives…This only leads to LOVE. But we need the local “agencies” to trust and rely on us…
What is the final goal?
We misfits figure it out, write it out, and turn it over to an “ACCEPTING” agency, perhaps the USGS. Then we can move on…or…get hired by the USGS…
We might not have all that much time either. I expect we have until 2029 to 2046 until our sun POOFS!!! I expect it will be a minor POOF this cycle, but that gets into “psionics”. The POOF will still be devastating non-the-less, just not total catastrophe. But this is just on my spiritual training. For proof, if I am correct, the moon will be struck hard by an object unrelated to the sun’s POOF, we should see red and then brown around our moon. Years later, POOF! All eyes on the Moon…
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratMay 24, 2021 at 7:43 am #10605Those that have contact with Ben, please tell hip of my plight. I need full posting ability as I have been nearly 99% focused on earthquakes on this forum but have had to mention c e n s o r s h i p issues on other forums and I now am experiencing these problems here.
Please help.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 2, 2021 at 5:12 pm #10419This morning Ben (Suspisious0bservers) mentioned the quake activity in California. He too is considering what we are seeing that it could be for-shocks.
Well, this morning we continue rocking and rolling! I will say my strongest part of forecasting is location (often with in 50 miles of center point) and time window, and magnitude strength just eludes me.
So here is the first quake, 7 miles east of Ridgecrest and 12 miles north of Garlock Fault.
The other two are off shore at the south end of the Jaun de Fuca.
Observed:
M 2.4 – 13km ENE of Ridgecrest, California 2021-03-31 03:39:09 (UTC) 35.673°N 117.546°W 3.6 km depth
Juan de Fuca
M 4.6 – 153 km W of Shelter Cove, California 2021-04-02 08:21:18 (UTC) 39.828°N 125.852°W 8.0 km depth
M 4.4 – 27km W of Petrolia, California 2021-04-02 08:21:35 (UTC) 40.303°N 124.600°W 18.7 km depth
Thoughts:
I look at the San Francisco Bay Area IF the Geysers meet the criteria of less then 10 quakes in 24hrs or more them 40 quakes in 24hrs. Then I take the strongest quake at the Geysers and at M 1.5 to it for a forecast.
Score: 0
So we have four quakes at the Geysers and the strongest is M 2.3. So I will be looking for a M 3.8 in the East side of the Bay Area. Too small for an official forecast. So I keep observing.15 ptsCanyonratApril 1, 2021 at 9:18 pm #10416Lester, Thank you!
Nope, I am a stickler for harsh truth and science. This forecast looked some simple and promising. Then I did some data over the last few months and beyond, so I thought I had an easy fish to catch.
But the M 7.0 did not yield the normal “after” energy.
But North America is still baffling me. I don’t know if I should lay in the hammock or run crazy down the streets yelling the “big one” is about to hit!
So I am just holding back and watching.
I do think we will see some “waves” of quakes roll through North America for the next few weeks. And likely M 2.0-ish activity, but in waves.
As for the possibility of my forecast comment that we could see energy from the M 7.0 strike N. America 2021-03-28 to 2021-04-03, I would have to say it needs to be M 4.9 to low M 6.0ish range. I am observing an up tic from 4.1 to 4.8, so we shall see how high it goes.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratFebruary 5, 2021 at 10:15 pm #10240So I got a successful forecast outside of Quake Watch. All of you, my fellow forecasters, impress me very deeply and make me want to be as scientific and exact as possible. And I feel “performance pressure” over here. LOL
So I feel less pressure (all from my own internal thoughts) over on Face Book quake sites. I am in the process of adjusting both my process and attitude. I am trying to focus on small improvements rather then be overwhelmed with looking at ALL of the data available, which leaves me nearly paralyzed intellectually and unable to see ANY POSSIBLE SEISMIC OUTCOMES. LOL So I am back with new and freshened vision and new techniques. And the belief that we can easily find a way to forecast quakes and not be caught off guard. I rather be wrong on a forecast then to miss or say nothing and then have a larger more serious quake occur.
Peace out and success to us all!
Score: 015 pts15 pts15 pts15 pts15 ptsCanyonratFebruary 5, 2021 at 9:47 pm #10234Lester, very cool supporting an artist! My mom is…was an artist. Her mind is going now. She did say that the way to make a living at selling art is to sell duplications. So you paint a picture and you will need to sell that for two weeks worth of labor. AND OR sell copies of it for $50USD. People will buy the $50 version rather then the origonal and you can make a living at being an artist.
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratFebruary 5, 2021 at 9:34 pm #10232On the Tremor map, Southern half of Vancouver Island has been lit up with 500-700 tremors per day for about a week now. Tremors are not earthquakes. I only raise an eyebrow when I see more then 400 per day for at least two days in a row. The question is? ……. Do tremors mean the Island gets hit or of shore gets hit or inland gets hit? There is a moderate correlation between increased tremors and large quakes. I have only seen the quakes in California, but my window is 1 year of reviewing and watching which is a nano second in geologic terms. I always remind myself to walk beside my high horse rather than ride into town on my high horse when it comes to geologic patterns. LOL
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratFebruary 2, 2021 at 3:20 am #10220Now onto quakes.
I do have some pride in getting close earth quakes to my center points.
This is my 4th that is with in a few miles of my center point. Center point is ten miles east of the San Andreas Fault and in an area that is not know for quakes. I chose this location because it sits between two ends of faults (likely just not yet mapped). Historically there are zero quakes in this location. Also it is the high point of a range that runs east west while all others run north south (these are “thereabouts descriptions”). Also two man made reservoirs and some “small pit mines?” all with in a few thousand feet.
I only say this for future historical review. It might be helpful…who knows…
So my center point is located at 37°11’15.39″N 121°19’44.52″W
The observed quake located at 37.192°N 121.299°W
Distance 1.7 miles from my center point. But FAR below my magnitude range of 4.2 to 5.2. But also within my very short time window.
Observed: M 2.5 – 28km WSW of Gustine, CA 2021-02-01 19:04:50 (UTC) 37.192°N 121.299°W 1.9 km depth
Thoughts: I will likely add some time to my small window as ALL OF THE QUAKES IN N. AMERICA have dropped off to 99.9% below M 2.9. Again, I sit and wait and observe.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratFebruary 2, 2021 at 2:32 am #10219Yes, they post the prior days data 6 to 12 hour later. I think they are a bunch of University Geology Students doing the work. So I was a University Student, and would occasionally show up to class stoned and or having a few beers in my belly. Now that said, I was surfing, so marijuana was part of the “scene”. LOL. And if I had a late afternoon class and surf was awesome we would go and eat a GIANT burrito and wash it down with a couple of beers afterwards and then I would go to class. I will admit that learning to smoke marijuana at 6am on the coast really ruined it for night time parties. I just could not smoke at night. Much like trying to have a glass of Cabernet at 6am, it just wont happen.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratFebruary 2, 2021 at 2:21 am #10218I know how the “downer” weeks come and go. My back as been a painful problem. The cure is physical therapy AND gym. Pan-Damn-It has limited PT and stopped gyms. But rest does heal as well, but much more slowly. Over all my pain is down 60-80% from a year ago. This is good. I am getting excited to do physical stuff again. But now I have developed new habits of sitting…LOL The motivational speakers say it takes 3 weeks to develop a new habit. Well I have 52 weeks of developing this new habit…LOL The motorcycle is getting me up and going. But at 54 years of age I need to find another 25ish year old friend that rides and calls me and says, “lets ride!” That will get me to suit up and get out of the chair and go have more fun more often. When my back went out 10 years ago that was the case, but he was 21 years old, and kept crashing, but it was fun. I actually gave him a full race suit and boots, and he crashed in them the next day. These amazing suits do keep you from getting injured (bruises don’t count as injury). But by him hanging out with me for a year motivated him to join the military and go into the Medical Core. So my efforts with him to ride better were not lost. 8+ years later he is still in the Medical Core!
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratFebruary 1, 2021 at 7:26 am #10216And I am always up for texting !-707-331-4805
And if we do the zoom thing, it can be on my end for any expenses. But honestly I have no idea how or if any expenses occur. LOL I will ask Jen in the morning. It is 11:20pm our time. And I was an early computer guy, using BBS before internet, LOL. When I was young and it was the late 1980’s I did not see any money in computers or communications. LOL. That and some other lessons in life have opened my eyes and now I see the world more clearly.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratFebruary 1, 2021 at 7:21 am #10215And on to quake stuff. I reviewed my arm-chair forecast for the follow-up to the BIG ONE at the antarctic.
Magnitude Mw 6.9
Region SOUTH SHETLAND ISLANDS
Date time 2021-01-23 23:36:50.6 UTC
Location 61.81 S ; 55.38 W
Depth 10 kmTwo of my three areas came into play:
M 4.4 – 139 km WNW of Ancud, Chile 2021-01-29 00:01:38 (UTC) 41.311°S 75.309°W 10.0 km depth
and
Magnitude mb 5.0
Region SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
Date time 2021-02-01 05:20:05.2 UTC
Location 59.18 S ; 26.11 W
Depth 125 kmBoth occurred later then 48 hours after the big 6.9.
The 4.4 was 150 miles/240km south west of Valdivia. I was expecting a 5.5 to 6.5. So this was a miss of 2 out of 3 criteria…Magnitude and time.
The 5.0 was a miss on all three criteria. I was looking for a 6.2 to 7.2 48 hour later and a 5.0 came in 1260mls/2032km from my center point and 8 days after the 6.9.
It did strike on the arc of Islands, which is a location I general watch.
But it is always easier ti look back then in front.
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