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15 ptsCanyonratMay 27, 2020 at 5:09 pm #8939
Fred,
Thank you so much for taking the time to explain your methodology. I ordered Ben’s new book and will start on the earthquake chapter strait away. I think it is a good idea to focus on a region and “get to know it”. I have observed with North America and the pan handle of Alaska and not including the rest of Alaska, is that quakes occur slowly, and even stall for a week before striking, and are always weaker then my calculations indicate. There is also some “guessing” work involved. Fore example, in mid-March I posted that we need to be on watch for larger unexpected quakes east of the west coast; then came Salt Lake City 5.7 3-18, Texas 5.0 on 3-26, Carsin City Nevada 4.5 on 3-21, and Idaho 6.8 on 3-31, then I could see the energy but missed the forecast of the California/Nevada border 4.5 on 4-11 because my radius was 30 miles and it struck 50 miles away, I was certain it was gonna strike really close to my center point.
“On Going General Watch: Issued March 4 2020, continues to be for larger seismic activity pushing east across the North American plate from the Pacific Plate in motion and pushing into it. I continue to maintain that unexpected larger activity will continue until California seismically quiets down. But know we have points to forecast from instead of being blind-sided.” – From my facebook page just before I switched documenting my forecasts over to here on quakewatch.
And now the week of May 25, 2020, I am observing a truly massive amount of quakes going off in the USA, but all under M 3.0. It is scary to look at. But it could mean the big energy has passed and things are settling down. Now I am watching for all of the M 4.5+ energy to stop for a while, a month or so…even knowing June could be a very seismically active period as 7 planets get bunched together and Earth sits in the middle of it all. But that forecasting of no quakes is also an important endeavor. Should we all figure out a a system or systems to forecast and get reliable enough, large construction projects could be scheduled to take advantage of calm. And we need to provide useful forecasts so people and emergency services can know when to schedule extra staff. My joke is forecasting an m8+ quake with a 500km radius is not useful beyond honing one’s forecasting skills because if it strikes in LA it won’t effect the Bay area and northward. You can’t have a whole state go on alert, no leader would take action on such a broad forecast. And for now, it is useful to make such forecasts as we all learn to be better at it.
Mark
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratMay 27, 2020 at 2:34 am #8934Hello Fred, I am Mark aka Canyonrat, I am new to this forecasting, about two years now, with a few successful forecasts in the under M4.0 range in norther California. So I had barely enough confidence to join the “A-Team” here at quakewatch. I follow the Dutchsinse methodology which I call “observational forecasting” meaning you look at prior activity to forecast the next activity.
I am impressed you add a depth to your forecast! I am noticing many shallow quakes striking in odd places in N. America and E. Russia, over the last few weeks.
I have a forecast about 330 miles do north of your center point.
M 4.0 to 5.0 off shore in the Gulf of Alaska, 2020-05-12 to 2020-05-19
Current modified forecast:
M 4.6 to 5.6 off shore in the Gulf of Alaska, 2020-05-23 to 2020-05-30, 58°40’34.90″N 141° 1’14.32″W 320km/200mls radius.
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratMay 24, 2020 at 3:33 pm #8921Up to thirteen quakes.
Something big is about to happen according to the massive swarm at the Geysers in Sonoma County. I have never seen so many quakes in a seven day period. Generally that means energy was released on the Juan de Fuca. When they go quiet that means something will go off 1.5 magnitudes above the most recent strongest quake at the Geysers. But now, I don’t know what it means. Also I am aware I am a bit “unsettled” because all I see are multiple swarms and six weeks of larger quakes all occurring in a 6 to 7 week period. It just looks scary.
Score: 015 pts15 pts15 pts15 ptsCanyonratMay 24, 2020 at 6:53 am #8916Re-activating this forecast for another seven days from today and upping the strength and moving the center point slightly south.
Observed:
M 5.0 – SOUTH OF ALASKA – 2020-05-20 17:13:20 (UTC) 54.93 N 156.99 W 10km depth https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=859724
M 5.2 – 151km W of Port Hardy, Canada 2020-05-23 02:14:51 (UTC) 50.428°N 129.509°W 10.0 km depth
Forecast (changes in bold):
M 4.6 to 5.6 off shore in the Gulf of Alaska, 2020-05-23 to 2020-05-30, 58°40’34.90″N 141° 1’14.32″W 320km/200mls radius.
I am expecting and in-fill quake at near to or slightly less in magnitude then the two observed quakes 5.0 and 5.2.
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratMay 23, 2020 at 3:43 pm #8906Counselor,
Happy birthday to your your young one! Happy big two!
And back to business.
We had a new M 5.2 – 151km W of Port Hardy, Canada 2020-05-23 02:14:51 (UTC) 50.428°N 129.509°W 10.0 km depth. I think we can say the Juan de Fuca is fully energized, so we should see that energy moving on shore in the next few days. We should all consider extending our forecasts in California to “capture” this new potential seismic energy. What is interesting about this new 5.2 is the energy is mostly pushing northward and I would expect it to push south or east. But I have noticed offshore quakes are less likely to get a moment tensor calculation by the USGS and I am new to using moment tensor data.
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratMay 23, 2020 at 1:56 am #8902Lester, I do appreciate all of your description. I do not understand all of it, but continue to study and learn and enjoy reading it. You as with me, keeping good notes, this is important. Who knows the future for certain…our sun could micro nova…nuclear war…pandemic…food shortages from colder weather??? We do not know for certain. But, if we here in quakewatch do not find the answer to earth quake forecasting, perhaps someone or some computer in the future will look through our comments and find fault AND success, and that will save others from going through the exercises that we have gone through and they can start from where we leave off. We do not know the future, we only know now.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratMay 22, 2020 at 7:43 am #8897Observed: M 5.3 – 53km WNW of Tonopah, Nevada 2020-05-22 00:22:00 (UTC) 38.236°N 117.796°W 6.9 km depth.
Modified forecast: Lowering magnitude range to 5.6 to 6.6, same center point, same radius, until 2020-05-29.
Thoughts:
I’m adding another 7 days to the forecast with an emphasis watch to the north east of this current massive swarm. The original “big bang” for this area M 6.5 near the Monte Cristo Range 2020-05-15 11:03:27 (UTC) 38.159°N 117.875°W 2.8 km depth had a moment tensor showing upward thrust with a slight emphasis to the north east. Days later we see a 5.0 and now a 5.3 just a few miles to the north east . The 5.3 was more clear with about 60% force to the north east and 40% toward the south west. I now think the larger activity will occur close and to the north east, so I am now watching closely at Middlegate Station – Bar & Grill 42500 Austin Hwy Fallon, NV 89406 with a 65km/40mls radius. Because of the two 5.0’s I think enough energy has been released and still expect one final larger quake. Exact location 39°17’13.92″N 118° 1’37.24″W. If it strikes in this focused area I’m gonna claim double success.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratMay 21, 2020 at 8:54 pm #8895Observed: 4.2 that struck today I think is just barely inside my circle. M 4.2 – 28km WNW of Petrolia, CA 2020-05-19 15:58:31 (UTC) 40.454°N 124.562°W 23.6 km depth.
I need to check the distance closely from my center point, but it might meet my criteria for success IF I find an old volcano near by.
Also this 4.2 has a moment tensor showing near equal energy both north and south.
I too might make a forecast for the North Bay area San Francisco. Mid 3ish to mid 4ish. Dutch also has a warning for 5.0 activity Napa California.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratMay 21, 2020 at 8:50 pm #8894Wow, this is three of us all using different techniques and seeing a possible activity in the same general area. My “special point of interest” Snow Mountain West located 160km/100mls east of Viscaino Canyon. I too looked in that area off shore, but so few quakes have occurred in that area I moved my center point north to the shore line.
You at 4.5 to 5.8
Me 5.9 to 6.9
Counselor at 6+ (6.0 to 7.0)Then I have some of this area Partly covered to just a short ways off shore with my Northern California 4.1 to 5.1. — I need to calculate inches, because the 4.2 that struck today I think is just barely inside my circle. M 4.2 – 28km WNW of Petrolia, CA 2020-05-19 15:58:31 (UTC) 40.454°N 124.562°W 23.6 km depth. It might be a “forecast success” but not what I am looking for. I will have to go hunt for an old volcano nearby to call it a hit.
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 115 pts15 ptsCanyonratMay 20, 2020 at 8:55 pm #8891Foot in my mouth…LOL
I said I did not expect Sugar Loaf Island to get hit (the island is my center point), and 2 hours later it got struck “in seismic terms it was a hair’s distance away.” My post time was made at 1:42pm (PST) or 13:42 (UTC). So 2 hours and 16 minutes later the below 4.2 strikes at 15:58 (UTC).
Observed:
M 4.2 – 28km WNW of Petrolia, CA 2020-05-19 15:58:31 (UTC) 40.454°N 124.562°W 23.6 km depth
Located 12.6km/7.8mls to the east.
What was strange/funny I actually had my original coordinates 10 miles east of the island, but I thought making the island the center was more interesting. 10 miles is nothing in seismic terms.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratMay 19, 2020 at 10:05 pm #8890I like your write up, you really explain your reasoning and methodology. I’m going to follow your method to see if I do it correctly and reproduce your out conclusions.
On my methodology end of things, I’ve been looking at possible leading indicators to those larger surprise quakes we have had recently in the Western part of North America. I keep looking back at two areas, one of shore south of Japan and one off shore to the east of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskiy, Russia. So my thinking is some deep large activity rolls out and heads toward the West Coast USA, but it is not following the plate boundary, so it rolls under and past the coast and hits something on the bottom of the plate inland, and goes off as a quake. So remember I am new at this. But that idea fits what we just observed. I have been working on how to make or rather organize data into a .CSV file so that I can import it into Earthquake-3D. Once I have that figured out, I can pull in old data from years ago and start working backwards in time from a large event and see if my hypothesis holds true…at least some of the time. As they say, even the worlds best cat herder can’t herd every cat. Cats and quakes might have the same temperament. LOL
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratMay 19, 2020 at 9:44 pm #8889Lester LOL. Keeping with 50…When the internet was beginning and growing outside of the University System, it was about 50%+ porn LOL, but I’ve heard now it is somewhere down between 1% and 15%. Us “intelligent” humans are a twitchy and weird species LOL.
Score: 015 pts15 pts15 pts15 ptsCanyonratMay 19, 2020 at 1:40 am #8881Ok, I have searched the deepest parts of the Internets going high and going low, including porn sites LOL just incase LOL, to see if I could find a report on a Mid-North Pacific quake.
Nothing happened out there this month or last month.
I was hunting down the wrong rodent burrow.
But I did discover this web page is very very useful because it shows the two “hidden” Canadian quakes and perhaps others that I am not aware of.
I will see if I can get a Comma-Separated Values (CSV) formate from them. IRIS pulls “all” (most) of the reporting agencies reports together. So the CSV file can be imported to EQ3D and yield a wider amount of earthquakes…but with perhaps less reliability of accuracy of some. But the USGS won’t report some quakes I think should be reported… It is a choice we each need to make.
I will post in this thread what I find about CSV files from them and if they need converting, I can add an excel formula to do that. I did a lot of data converting 20 years ago when I did “Data Reporting” (a very specialized job position for insurance companies in the USA, maybe 1000 of us only).
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratMay 18, 2020 at 5:14 pm #8875LOL
My observational data shows this round of energy in the Islands has passed, and we should see same size or smaller aftershock quakes go off in or near the current seven locations of M3.9+ quakes over the last two weeks. Hopefully the area has some calm. But this is just my method and it has it’s limitations.
One possible open/silent area is the area around Isla de Providencia 13°20’47.72″N 81°22’27.77″W. It could experience a M4.0 to M5.0 250km/150mls radius in the next 48 hours. Likely on or near an underwater cliff/rise plate boundary. But this is an area I don’t often look at, so may familiarity is lacking.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratMay 18, 2020 at 4:35 pm #8874I am still considering a change to my forecast.
Observed: M 5.5 – 252km W of Ferndale, California 2020-05-18 07:02:34 (UTC) 40.828°N 127.230°W 10.0 km depth. A review of the moment tensor graph shows it to be an up thrust event.
I have a general watch and (am hunting for an unreported) quake in the middle of the North Pacific between latitudes 35N and 45N. What is interesting is this M5.5 is on latitude 40.8N and the Quincy quake is on latitude 39.9N.
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