Forum Replies Created
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11 ptsCounselorJanuary 19, 2018 at 2:58 pm #3651
Ugh…I wish I had the time to play on T&D right now to see these points Lester.
Maybe I can make the time again for it like I hope to this weekend.
What links to my Trinidad and Tobago post? I had several mag fluxes and the OLR, TEC, and weather patterns that led me there and then a blot depth M4 quake struck there a day or two later. Does it just happen to share the same lines are Mauritania and/or the other regions you mentioned?
This is what happened to us on our Honduras miss, and the Peru miss. You had figured out that the near misses shared dawn/dusk lines I think?
Hook, what’s up your sleeve man? You said others are on the money like you or close. Do they not want to post here? What’s up? Cuz if a fool like me is stinkin’ up the joint then I will respectfully bow out.
We had a few newcomers who missed and haven’t reposted and somebody who had close miss, but also has yet to return. Starting to wondering if this jammer comment has something to do with the frequency of mine or Lester’s posting??
Just don’t leave us hanging. The suspense is distracting me now.
Score: 011 pts11 pts11 ptsCounselorJanuary 18, 2018 at 2:34 pm #3639The idea have been using to adjust my forecasts as the sun’s output became lower had been based on a smaller scale version of the global Kp index during geomagnetic storms. When I looked at the Tromso Stack Plots under the H for height or F for force, the quakes seemed to correlate around the points just before or after a major flux (reflecting the larger scale geomagnetic storms dampening quake activity). Some times this correlated to Sun terminators, sometimes it related to Moon terminators. If increased magnetic force disturbs the global electric circuit, creating voltage surge/drop then you get changes in current flow (and vice versa) which happens in order to balance the total energy. But, this is occurring at the various levels and through varying layers that each have different conductive and resistive qualities (like a capacitor). So, oscillating magnetic fields can imterrupt or amplify the varying facets to electrical flow (including heat/ mechanical work / static build-up, etc). When the magnetic field activity relaxes, or the point just prior to the magnetic fluxing, an energetic reaction should take place, like the spark that occurs when pulling out a plug or the spark that occurs when reconnecting a wire. But, that is just the where I was in the beginning of this because I was already thinking that which sector boundary crossings, the oscillating that occurs during larger geomagnetic storms, the planet alignments, cosmic rays, and tidal force (and maybe magnetic force) our earth gets from the moon.
Several triggers… why it seems to appear to us at the terminators? Maybe that is just simply the more extreme ends that creates the more energetic release or reconnecting? Maybe certain parts of the earth are more affected by one factor versus another as a trigger may be concerned since the fracture zones are thinner than the subduction zones, inner layers of the mantle may only affect the next layer up or down when changes occur?
Thoughts?
Score: 011 ptsCounselorJanuary 17, 2018 at 2:25 pm #3631Lester, I think he may agree with our use of terminator lines, but the direction you or I go with them may be what’s different.
Anybody make an offer through your google+ for those impressive 24hr posts?
C’mon brother… even if it is to show off a little… you can just keep adding to your resume for some eventual patron to your work.
I have my idea about the magnetometer fluxes and sun/moon terminators, Lester has his ideas that have him using the Ace data feeds with solar terminator primarily (and he maps it out into future days). Sometimes we worked together and would use what we learned through you and Ben to support an area we were looking at and timing is still off. In the midst of lower solar output, he and I have ended up getting within the ballpark of several quakes… just off on timing.
Aside from Ben, you are the only other person that seems to have the timing down. I thought you may just wait to forecast at full moons/new moons… but I think a few of those 24hr posts were outside of that range.
Theses forums are the proving grounds… unless you are hoping to get hired by NASA? What have you got to lose coming back in here and showing us a thing or two… that never stopped you before?
Score: 011 pts11 pts11 ptsCounselorJanuary 15, 2018 at 9:12 pm #3616Lester! 🙂 Ok…This is not a fib…had the day off and snagged a smidge of time… 🙂 Thought I saw something for Romanche fracture zone (near Ascension). That will be my last, figure I would post one that supports the post you have.
Anyway, I will be back next weekend to check in.
Score: 011 ptsCounselorJanuary 15, 2018 at 7:34 am #3614Alright my friend…
I have posted my third and last forecast until those all expire. I have two twenty forecasts and now a 7 day.
I am glad to see how things got ti d up at the end with that 952 time because you reminded me of this time just as I happen to be seeing the spots I chose just now and they seem to fall in close on that same line.
Maybe a good thing? But, I will be doing my homework a bit and looking to regain my momentum to do this over the weekends instead of trying to do this during he week.
Perhaps bill and Ted will make a comeback too. If I do truly find the next key, then I will add that here too. See you next weekend Lester.
-Chris
Score: 011 pts11 ptsCounselorJanuary 13, 2018 at 3:16 pm #3603Hi Lester..:-)
I intend to step away for a bit. It’s what prompted me at one point to post that rubbish on moon termination in separate posts in this member forum and later my two 6’s… Btw… saw that 5.9 east of honirara Solomon Islands! We had eyes on our that didn’t we 🙂
That’s just it… you hit the nail in the head in your description above… I am also empathic. My job is mentally trying and I expend a lot of that energy helping young men and women getting ready to go out into the real world…worry over the next quake and hoping to get another step closer to something “actionable” in our findings has me realizing I have included a greater number of people in my daily life where playing with my son and hanging out with my wife, while only occasionally having an observation about quakes, gave me more insight.
I may get a chance to forecast today or tomorrow hopefully 🙂
Thank you for being my sounding bell for this quake work.
Score: 011 ptsCounselorJanuary 12, 2018 at 1:51 am #3596Yeah…I think I am ready for a longer break myself.
I don’t necessarily believe the idea I have involves just the moon terminator. I am just going to shift my focus to that one and test something out measuring the time from one tromso mag flux peak/relaxation point to another. I want to see what I get with the sun terminators doing that, as well as whether I can better frame the area to use the main indicators on the model for me on quakewatch. I probably should have been more clear about that. I am putting emphasis on the moon.
I don’t know what this will mean for timing at all. Perhaps “somebody” had figured that one out already, but I don’t think I am any closer to that.
It may mean that I will not post as often either. I am also coming home too spent from work at the moment. If I think I have something using this idea, then I will post.
Score: 011 ptsCounselorJanuary 10, 2018 at 1:16 pm #3585Yes, still safe. I think I am still working on it because the intriguing thing I am observing my still involve Moon termination. I don’t it is working in every case, but I have an idea that I will share out here soon. If it’s another key…I need to articulate what I have as clearly as I can.
Yes, we are safe 🙂
Score: 011 pts11 pts11 pts11 ptsCounselorJanuary 9, 2018 at 2:05 am #3571Possible foreshock activity from area I have highlighted above: https://photos.app.goo.gl/BOqQaBRoD82u6ChP2
Extending this forecast to 20 days from initial post.
Score: 011 ptsCounselorJanuary 8, 2018 at 2:30 pm #3568Thanks Lester!
Sorry for the delay in replying the other day. I am not sure exactly what time I have for another forecast as I return to work today. I had hoped to take a look at some more data about Solomon’s and Vanuatu. Hoping to forecast later in the day on my side of the pond, but I might not be back for a few days. Once things normalize I should be able to help out again.
I was thinking somewhere like Hayward and glad you had chosen that area. The few terminators for the moon I had looked at appeared to be closer to San Francisco Bay in the information I was using, but needed more time to see if it was that… go team B&T.
Still curious about whether something does develop north in Washington state and saw somebody post it. Looks like Quakewatch is going to get busy again.
🙂
Be back soon!
Score: 011 ptsCounselorJanuary 6, 2018 at 11:47 pm #3555Glad to hear you have neighbors that can help if need be. 🙂
I know it has snowed a time or two in areas just north of me and only slightly higher elevation. In the time since I have been where I am currently, no snow…yet. I have been through snow before, but who knows what my area may look like since Ben’s line for where the cold will dip also crosses right through where I live, or just a few miles north… could feel like the high sierras here in the coming years.
Do you have eyes on Honnaira, Solomon Islands or Vanuatu still? I think there may be reason to review something there. I jumped on a couple more areas, but stopped after realizing my coverage was going to get too large. I saw a mag flux point that crossed through what appears to be central California through to Oregon and coastline of Washington again. Might still be early again for Hollister, but was curious what is coming up for you again.
There is hope for Signey’s spot too! We’ve gone too long without a 6+. TEC increasing in some other areas Ari md the globe too, so I am in the part where I hope that our extra info is guiding us to the areas with recent activity…no surprises that is.
Score: 011 pts11 ptsCounselorJanuary 6, 2018 at 2:06 am #3548Oh man Lester, I have been away for a little too long and can sense the excitement in these recent posts! Things are lining up on some recent things I have been looking at, but will have to return later with some information for a B&T.
We are safe and those fires have ended. The areas around Santa Barbara were ravaged by the “Thomas” fire. People have already been trying recover. Some businesses and hotels, from what I have read and heard, have tried to be of help. Hundreds of homes lost, but nice to see people coming together.
Score: 011 pts11 ptsCounselorJanuary 5, 2018 at 2:12 am #3540I have been seeing Solomon Islands and Vanuatu again since a few days ago. Perhaps you are early there if I am just starting to see some repeat flux points. I thought I saw something for Banda Aceh into bamboo flats India area and saw you were already there.
As for Berkeley, saw only one mag flux event which at 0050 Jan 2 had me looking around Northern California. Subsequent fluxing corresponded more closely to Washington state USA into Canada, but I was actually seeing more terminator points in the mag fluxing that were bringing me south closer to Los Angeles through parts of Baja before and after that mark.
Turks and Caicos had corresponded to something I saw back on December 30-31, and it is showing up on my lines today for Jan 4. See the TEC at 0345 UTC, See OLR from Jan 3, and that 1350 mag mark is approximation: https://photos.app.goo.gl/oWdN3LPbW7AOpPvl1
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