Forum Replies Created
-
11 pts11 ptsCounselorJanuary 4, 2018 at 12:22 am #3532
Hi Lester,
I am doubting this forecast since I also saw the Galapagos area you mentioned had hit as well. Perhaps it was a well timed mention. Perhaps my cconfirming this region now is just going to be too far in advance or already behind. However, it is a Yes for the cities you mentioned. If you do feel these are still strong forecasts too, then I trust your timing.
We have crossed paths before independently, but I believe your timing has been better than mine per your track record. This has me doubtful about my NZ Macquarie spots at the moment. I question what it is I am looking at if Hook is right about how I am calling it. I was to use the time off I had to improve my timing, but I fear I am committing the same mistakes without any growth. I return to work soon without resolution and another forecast that I am choosing to hold now because how you just described the dilemma above.
Not giving up, but I am tired of ânothing new under the sunâ.
Hoping for the best for Signey, and any newcomers. Wonder if Tayrance and Subcoder will return soon.
Score: 011 ptsCounselorJanuary 3, 2018 at 4:50 pm #3529Hello Signey,
Welcome! Yes, everything Lester pretty much said. Ben has his rules above about posting, and I second the use of the tutorials and PDFâs linked on the Quakewatch website.
I too have had limited success so far, but I started very much like you are now. All the best in your forecasting efforts!
Score: 011 ptsCounselorJanuary 3, 2018 at 3:38 pm #3526Hey Lester,
So, either this is a miss before we get a joint forecast for the area between Guatemala City to Managua I mention above/your specific mentioning of El Salvador, or the sequence you ran and the TEC with mag flux data is sending us the foreshock activity.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/3j8Z1APTMsnSxcck1
Ready? What do you think Hook? Are we wrong about this spot? Would be nice to get your feedback.
My Guam/Mariana Trench only got me another 5+ and I thought that was going to be the heavy hitter during this full moon. Is 5.9 in the area around Vanuatu recently near where Lester and I also forecasted jointly an indication the the earth really only shakes at sub 6 without the Sunâs help?
Score: 011 ptsCounselorJanuary 2, 2018 at 10:33 pm #3523The congruency in the mag relaxation points, the possible movement of OLR in that region, and an interesting TEC ( although faint) shows a red and blue âsqueezingâ into that area which is where the moon is over that area at 0545.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/Leo1ei1CAZqD099J2
Forgot to mention Oaxaca and Mexico City
-
This reply was modified 6 years, 10 months ago by
Counselor.
11 ptsCounselorJanuary 2, 2018 at 10:24 pm #3522Hi Lester,
I had 0545 and 1200 on Jan 1st for mag fluxes, and there is a TEC signature that interests me and shows itself at 0545 Jan 2nd. The Moon sits close by at the 0545 mark. The ball park area for me is Guatemala City to Managua. I havenât looked at any mag fluxes yet for today, but New Ireland was part of my watch area around the Bismarck Sea at Kokopo for my 20 day forecast about to expire. Since I seem to enjoy missing the mark by a whole month sometimes, Thanks Hook for pointing that out đ , I may be comfortable including that location. However, I have been eyeing Central America.
Score: 011 pts11 ptsCounselorDecember 31, 2017 at 9:51 pm #3511Yes, that pacific ridge is south of the spot I had. Mine was near the that southern spot from Easter Island..one of those triple junction looking spots.
Yeah Lester…I am willing. Just a little tied up with the kid too much today and tomorrow to do a real look at the data/ make a for cast. If Durban or Cape Town hit that will be a real pisser…
Score: 011 pts11 ptsCounselorDecember 31, 2017 at 8:13 pm #3507Oh would you look at that…another pesky 4.6 hits within a 300km radius of Sendai north, like I had said above just hours ago…still frustrating…
Just like the Valparaiso to Concepcion Chile line/ Mendoza to Las Ovejas Argentina line that didnât hit, but might hit much later, when Lester and I had been in that area just recently…
Câmon!
Score: 011 pts11 ptsCounselorDecember 31, 2017 at 4:41 pm #3504Thanks for the wishes Lester! Wishing you the same.
Hey Hook! Like Lester, I too wish more would participate. Not like I am feeling as sharp as you or Lester. Was reviewing some old posts like he did and just seemed satisfied that I was able to get the area although a whole magnitude off. My timing still sucks and I am holding in any new forecast because of Mariana Trench forecast is a 20 day watch. It picked up again as we approach full moon so I have been hesitant to make any new ones.
I saw south Japan pop a 5 blot after I thought I saw something almost 10 days ago.
I tried picking up some clues from your public postings on google plus, got inspired, and fired a watch for a 4.5+ in Oklahoma, but only saw a 4 pop much much later.
Both Lester and I know that the Sun is not injecting as much energy, but weâre both scratching our heads even more when we see our individual or joint efforts come close.
If the areas are more or less the same, then those are same areas to get active as we see the upticks? So, there shouldnât be any surprises?
Like atacama Chile, southern Peru, JuJuy Argentina… mid to southern Philippines, Japan (Sendai north/south) off coast around ryukyu/ bonin Islands/Izu Islands…kurilsk to Kamchatka…Guam/Mariana…North Sumatra into Myanmar…West Java…Dili East Timor/Weber basin/Banda Sea… PNG into Solomonâs/ Vanuatu/New Caledonia/ Fiji Tonga/North NZ… West Turkey into Iraq/Iran… lesser Antilles… Anchorage, Alaska into the aleutians… Guatemala/Mexico City… California coast…not to forget those fun Atlantic ridge hitters/ pacific ridge hitters and off the coast of South Africa/south of Australia ridges and every stinking location of a volcano that didnât blow…
Those are just to mention a few of the frustrating areas that I know weâve listed repeatedly and missed for the sake of timing thrown off from lack of solar activity and show up repeatedly in the mag flux stuff I was testing out too. I know Lester has a few spots I may not have mentioned above.
I wouldnât mind being kept busy if you got something that could help during this transition period…otherwise those are my âforecastsâ potentially, but not in that order necessarily. Timing had been an issues in the last super moon and every coronal that came and went where something unexpected for me had hit instead of something that took myself and/or Lester a week to two weeks at the most to review sometimes.
I am hungry…and ready…to get this right. I think Lester would be too.
I havenât been doing this as long as you guys so I may not seeing the âforrest for the treesâ right now. I still need help. Got a little one left for it if you will allow it đ
Score: 011 ptsCounselorDecember 30, 2017 at 12:37 am #3496Hi Lester,
I saw a flux/relaxation point that day at 0050 UTC on the 28th and TEC bubble at 0530 UTC. I have been busy and simply screenshotted what I could. I was glad you posted for Hollister.
We definitely had the energy release you were expecting that day! I kept checking he USGS site holding my breath almost. I will probably be watching how my 20 day forecast for Mariana Trench region/ Timor goes for the time being. Getting a little side-tracked here. Hoping to get another new forecast soon, or a to support a joint one. Might have to wait until next year…đ
Score: 011 ptsCounselorDecember 24, 2017 at 8:20 pm #3472Hey Lester,
Had a moment of pattern recognition and this may just be a fluke. Havenât had a look at TEC today yet, or to see the movement of OLR/wind/rain yet, but I am covering El Hoyo, Argentina in the remainder of time from my Argentina forecast I made on the 20th. When you see where the USGS past data, and a few mag flux patterns in the link I have below, then maybe you can see why I did that. My post expires on the 27th and El Hoyo is pretty close to the line I am working on with you for the Bill and Ted forecast. Just wanted to keep this area covered in a snap call for now, but didnât do this bad intentions.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/WB0ZU79CvLvXdJJ62
Score: 011 ptsCounselorDecember 24, 2017 at 8:03 pm #3470Incorporating a 150 KM radius around El Hoyo, Argentina since this spot is close to the highlighted areas in my post above. Same magnitude and and for the remainder of the initial watch period from previous post.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/PxdAqOBNKvPtKy763
Please forgive the oval shape in the image. The mark is to ID the area. Using my phone and couldnât quite get the circle for the scale.
-
This reply was modified 6 years, 10 months ago by
11 ptsCounselorDecember 23, 2017 at 4:41 pm #3467Oh Lester…
I think we got our invite…
If vallenar, and Mendoza yesterday, could be some foreshock activity, then maybe itâs second to hit. But look at what I gathered. The signs point to both locations for me.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/DaIn5qHiUpJVgcf53
Score: 011 ptsCounselorDecember 23, 2017 at 2:17 am #3465Btw… Dec 20, I had Mag flux signatures around the 0710 mark. I have a TEC image that shows more Od western Turkey, but the Greece connections seems less strong for me as well. OLR seems strong around there, but it is stronger in Vanuatu area and looks like itâs coming back in South America. Rain and wind maps seem to draw me to South America and Vanuatu in the coming days, but those arenât that strong right now. That could change though.
Score: 011 ptsCounselorDecember 23, 2017 at 1:15 am #3464And, lastly, in the terminator images I am sharing here you may notice I am using moon terminator lines. I do look at solar, as well as moon/sun overhead locations. I am not seeing whether moon or sun is getting me closer. But, my closest calls have been when the terminators are closest together on new moons/full moons. Maybe the math you speak of the part I need to work on đ
Score: 011 ptsCounselorDecember 23, 2017 at 1:05 am #3463Only reason I included the tromso data is that I look for congruence with the mag fluxing (peaks and valleys). Where there is rest in the KP flux on the global scale a quake tends to occur. That is something I picked up from Ben Davidsonâs videos. I use the tromso data like the global KP index on the micro scale. I look to find global agreement with a point that appears to show no fluxing, and extreme mag fluxing. That window gives me the space on the globe I am looking at. Then I reference the TEC data, wind/pressure/OLR maps, and blot echoes to narrow my area. Itâs what got me my two hits in November, and my near misses. Figure I would finally share this out here with you, and whomever else may be reading our posts. I may have said it before, but didnât know how to articulate it as clearly perhaps.
Score: 011 ptsCounselorDecember 23, 2017 at 12:50 am #3462Well well…
You are spot on with the toy forecast.
:-p
I am happy to say I have been eyeing point conception and Mendoza Argentina for a couple of days, as well as Vanuatu, San Cristobal, and New Caledonia.
Here is just a sample of some of the screen shots I have been working with. Bill could use a little âlatitude adjustmentâ. I have more that I am using, but I wanted to just give validation for validation this season. I have a few more TEC and mag flux data that lead me roughly to at least two of the areas you mention. đ
https://photos.app.goo.gl/lCrtjpTzYCU4wlai1
Score: 011 ptsCounselorDecember 22, 2017 at 4:05 pm #3459I am sorry for my absence Lester. Being in on winter break makes for a less regimented time table. I have been putting this to the side a couple of times to be with family. If itâs not too late, then let me know what your three locations. I just need to look at some fresh data today, but maybe some of the screen shots I have from these last couple of days could have something. I am afraid I havenât been as confident in this work lately for the same reasons you mentioned before about our sun, but I would like to keep trying. I am starting to lean on my magnetometer flux idea more strongly these days because it brought me a few closer hits than my recent obsession over Africa. I had a few forecasts based mostly on TEC, using the mag flux as a guide. Only issues then I would see a quake hit along the terminator line I was using and it was either far away from the TEC or there was a fainter sign that I didnât think would have as much influence. Like my Mariana Trench forecast. I also did a private forecast that had Kerman, Iran, but I got fooled into seeing a 5.9 as the main quake and wasnât thinking foreshock. I chose not to forecast again man. Then South Japan just the last few days and that was goin back from from Izu to Sendai…now nothing. Things still may be slow for me, but I do enjoy a team effort. So, âyippee kaiyayâ to quote from âDie Hardâ.
As for âDie Hardâ, I guess itâs technically a Christmas movie. Although I donât mind watching it, I would agree with you about âItâs a Wonderful Lifeâ. The version you mentioned of âMiracle on 34th Streetâ is also the one I enjoy. I also like the Alastair Sims version Dickenâs Christmas Carol. Something about that version hits my emotional gut harder than the special effects based repeats. Hoping âBillâ can be of help for your Christmas hit list đ.
Score: 011 pts11 ptsCounselorDecember 19, 2017 at 3:30 pm #3442How frustrating again. I was looking at this spot for a while. But, things shifted north and my timing ended up being off by a few days. đ€
https://photos.app.goo.gl/Fsvl3P3KNpS1bWWA3
Score: 011 ptsCounselorDecember 19, 2017 at 12:05 am #3438Well… got a couple of locations right. Maybe some potential yet in the days remaining for my watch.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/Ij9gBeCABdeyUDhj2
Score: 011 ptsCounselorDecember 17, 2017 at 4:43 pm #3436Hi Lester,
Not sure where my other post went. It shows I posted in here, but I donât see what I previously wrote.
No worries. I have reason to believe that either my Guam forecast is a bust since it only popped a 5 not too long ago, but so did Philippines and they are on different mag flux terminators I had been mapping. What I failed to see at first was that our bill and Ted post for the area mentioned before happened to fall within the boundaries of the mag flux times I had been looking at for Guam/Mariana trench. So, if connected, my recent 5 was not a foreshock to my area and it doesnât go bigger and this area is linked globally to our previous look in south sandwich which just popped a curious 5 at slightly shallower depth 35km from a similar shake not too far only a couple of days ago…foreshock perhaps? I have a TEC image I am looking at that may be showing either my area or sandwich Islands. Hence the reason for my snap call for Bill to post with that map style you donât like… apologies Ted.
Score: 0 -
This reply was modified 6 years, 10 months ago by
-
|
