Forum Replies Created
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115 ptslesterApril 26, 2017 at 12:14 am #1445
Subcoder, then you DO understand what it’s like. Talk to friends or family, and they are doing there best to look interested. Approach the scientific community with sun/moon related quake theories, and they would most likely book you into a cheap padded room with a nice view.
There is no denying this is an emotional subject, I don’t really understand your posted material because my method is based on equations, but it’s plain to see how much effort you put into your forecasts. Arguing your point is part of the experience and nothing to be remorseful for, it was adjudicated fairly and you both came out on top.
If your future forecasts turn out to be as impressive as your formula… I think I will have to change my interest to Volcanology LOL
Lester
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 1115 ptslesterApril 25, 2017 at 10:52 pm #1440I am English, but I am currently residing in Scotland… Whiskey and oranges, hell of a combination don’t you think LOL
Have to admit, I’m not a big follower of American football, but I do watch the Superbowl on TV.
There’s a connection I missed, quakes and the Superbowl… don’t you guy’s have a quake bet or something during this game ?
Lester
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 1115 pts115 ptslesterApril 25, 2017 at 8:31 pm #1423We are all here for different reasons, weather it be competitive, scientific or even a beef with god. In my opinion, you both had a successful outcome. SubcOrder got a hit on the last day of his 7 day forecast, and Tayrance got a hit after 2 hours… the post was there because I saw it before the quake occurred. If there are any discrepancies, it is the responsibility of management to sort them out.
I have put my time in on this subject before, so I’m just here to keep my brain active. An earthquake forum with prize money is a nice touch. But in the interest of scientific advancement, I believe it to be a bad idea. There have been so many 7.5’s forecast for New Zealand in the past month… if I resided there I think I would be taking up permanent residence in a tent by now.
You have to remember, you are involved in a very exclusive subject… your out having a drink with your buddies, they are talking about the game and you start talking about earthquakes… are they going to listen, or put you on the next train out of town ?. This scenario excludes Californian’s of course, more quake talk than football I believe. The point is, forum’s like this are here for people like us, , so we can share the science, get some of these idea’s out of our heads so we can sleep at night, and develop a “bond” with fellow predictors.
Being accurate and precise with this is the right way to go, if your here for the entertainment factor, then predict 50 or 100 locations because when you get one… it is a good feeling. But if you are here to prove your method works, then there is an old saying in prediction circles… throw a hundred darts at a board and one is bound to hit the bull. The number of darts puts the odds in your favour to hit the bull anyway. Throw ten and hit the bull, you may have something worth investigating because it shows skill!
SubcOder, if you don’t mind advice from a burnout like me, I encourage you to keep doing what you are doing, there are thousands of quakes to come, and with each forecast you attempt, you will learn something different. And who knows, maybe sometime in the future you will be sharing a drink with Tayrance… on the same train out of town!. Now if you gentlemen will excuse me, I have a 7.5 to prepare for the Canary Isles!
Lester
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 1115 pts115 pts115 pts115 pts115 pts115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterApril 13, 2017 at 8:00 pm #1235CR, I agree with you on principle, but in reality the frequency of 2’s,3’s and 4’s on a daily basis works against you. Predicting an earthquake is one of Earth’s last untamed sciences. The Mercia region in Spain experiences a 3+ every 6 to 8 weeks, the scientific community knows this so your achievement would be view as a high probability of getting one there anyway. If you predicted 3 in a row, or 3 of 5 in the same region, you have something that warrants their attention. I use to do this years ago, and even then I found nobody would give you the time of day for less than a 5. Of course, it doesn’t mean you should be discouraged from tracking down small mag’s, that’s how you home your skills. I know how frustrating it is to have a hit and not be acknowledged, because I have been there!
A tip from an old dog, take pleasure in small mag hits with your family, scientists are only interested in statistics and the dangerous one’s
Lester
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