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115 pts115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterJuly 30, 2021 at 7:17 pm #10805
On Friday 30th July at 17:10:19 UTC, an M 6.1 event occurred in Northern Peru on coordinates 80.61’W – 4.19’S. At 04:19 UTC on this day, it was moonrise on this epicentre, and the ATE threshold was located on coordinates 115.65’W – 33.17’N Salton Sea !
Score: 0115 ptslesterJuly 29, 2021 at 6:24 pm #10802https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=1014712
M 5.1 North of Islangel, Vanuatu … 29th July
Score: 0115 ptslesterJuly 29, 2021 at 3:38 pm #10800Hey Becca, don’t get stressed… I am not here to be judgmental of fellow forecasters. Its just that Your post time here gives you status as an “experienced” forecaster. So I was a little confused why you would be stooping to newbie status, to claim a hit in North Philippines, when your forecast description clearly stated South. And in your last post, you have now pointed out that your “mark” is in contact with the epicentre… what mark ?
This indicates that you must have posted a map somewhere… but not here. Therefore, you can appreciate why I would come to this conclusion based only on words !
it is a given fact that there is no set forecast mandate here. So it is up to individuals whether they want to push the limits beyond acceptable forecast protocols. Tayrence and I are the only veterans that continue to practice our skills here on a regular basis. We had good times once, but now we are just passing ships in the night. But apart from our differences, we both work to a set prediction standard… and try to lead by example. I missed a M 6.0 in the Bismarck Sea by 27 km’s last week. Am I being a fool to myself for not claiming this… or am I trying to be professional ?
I am not a mediator, so the choice is your what you wish to claim, or not. You know I have tried to help you in the past, so please regard this as more of the same… 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterJuly 29, 2021 at 1:51 am #10798On Thursday 29th July at 00:32:15 UTC, an M 5.7 event occurred off the coast of Northern Peru on coordinates 79.89’W – 8.34’S. At 23:18 UTC on this day, it will be sunset on this epicentre. At “12-hours” earlier 11:18 UTC, the ATB threshold will be located on coordinates 115.65’W – 33.17’N Salton Sea !
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterJuly 27, 2021 at 10:51 am #10790https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=1013988
M 5.0 South Sandwich Islands … 27th July
Score: 0115 ptslesterJuly 25, 2021 at 4:11 pm #10787Ah !… that puts things into perspective 🙂
I don’t use maps because I post location coordinates, and a “margin of error”. This margin extends a radial distance (currently 300 km’s) from the forecast center point… similar to a circle like Tayrence uses. I also had a forecast in South Philippines, but I could not lay claim to the M 6.7 event in North Philippines, because I had posted a “margin of error” that didn’t extend this far North.
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterJuly 24, 2021 at 5:08 pm #10783Mmmm… proclamation from an “experienced” forecaster !
We once had someone here that produced the most beautiful colored forecast maps I had ever seen, complete with national flags and “defined” forecast areas. It portrayed someone with a true passion for this subject, and pride in what they were preparing for submission.
If this proclamation is submitted on an “entertainment” basis, then I offer congrats, and apologies from an old seismic soldier. If Not, then I would like to know when this person is coming back… because I liked her !
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterJuly 21, 2021 at 8:39 pm #10774https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=1011857
M 5.2 Sulawesi, Indonesia … 21st July
Continuing this forecast for 7 days from 01:30 UTC July 24
Thank you
Score: 0115 ptslesterJuly 20, 2021 at 9:55 pm #10770https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=1011571
M 5.2 Mindanao, Philippines … 20th July
Adjustment to forecast…
Resetting magnitude as 5.3 – 6.6
Thank you
Score: 0115 ptslesterJuly 20, 2021 at 1:21 am #10767https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=1011306
M 5.1 Ryukyu Islands, Japan … 19th July
Score: 0115 ptslesterJuly 18, 2021 at 1:44 am #10761https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=1010680
M 5.2 Southeast of the Loyalty Islands … 18th July
Adjustment to forecast…
Resetting magnitude as 5.5 – 6.8
Thank you
Score: 0115 ptslesterJuly 18, 2021 at 1:33 am #10760https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=1010656
M 5.1 Mindanao, Philippines … 18th July
Score: 0115 ptslesterJuly 16, 2021 at 6:41 pm #10756https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=1010087
M 5.0 Eastern P.N.G. … 16th July
Score: 0115 ptslesterJuly 13, 2021 at 3:23 pm #10749https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=1009267
M 5.4 Southeast of the Loyalty Islands … 13th July
Ref; The S-Files … “X-Class Flare” in chat room !
Score: 0115 ptslesterJuly 12, 2021 at 10:57 pm #10746https://www.livescience.com/caspian-sea-explosion-mud-volcano.html
An interesting coincidence… or not !!
On Sunday 4th July at 04:30 UTC, it was moonset on coordinates 150.49’E – 49.90’N Sea of Okhotsk. At “12-hours” later 16:30 UTC, a mud volcano explodes in the Caspian Sea, off the coast of Azerbaijan !!
Score: 0115 ptslesterJuly 12, 2021 at 8:16 pm #10745https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/archive/2021/07/03/xray.html
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