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115 ptslesterFebruary 18, 2021 at 5:39 pm #10286
Past successful eruption predictions have always been the result of increased activity at the selected subject. Usually in response to significant correlations with other active volcanoes. Considering current correlations between Mt Fuego and Mt Etna… this report “may be” something to be concerned about !!
Score: 0115 ptslesterFebruary 17, 2021 at 2:39 pm #10283The following table represents the ATE threshold / Solar Noon relationship between Mt Taal volcano in Luzon Philippines on coordinates 120’59’E – 14’00’N, and Mt Etna volcano on coordinates 14’59’E – 37’45’N. the columns include; Dates, ATE times on Mt Taal, and longitude position of the sun within 15 arcmins of longitude 14’59’E…
14th Feb – 11:12 UTC …. 15’32’E
15th Feb – 11:12 UTC …. 15’32’E
16th Feb – 11:13 UTC …. 15’16’E = ATB threshold located on Mt Pacaya volcano
17th feb – 11:13 UTC …. 15’15’E = ATB threshold located on Mt Pacaya volcano
18th Feb – 11:13 UTC …. 15’14’E *
19th Feb – 11:13 UTC …. 15’12’E * = Solar Noon – Mt Stromboli volcano on 15’12’E
20th Feb – 11:13 UTC …. 15’11’E *
21st Feb – 11:14 UTC …. 14’54’E *
22nd Feb – 11:14 UTC …. 14’52’E *
23rd Feb – 11:14 UTC …. 14’50’E *
24th Feb – 11:14 UTC …. 14’48’E *
25th Feb – 11:14 UTC …. 14’45’E *
26th Feb – 11:14 UTC …. 14’43’E
27th Feb – 11:15 UTC …. 14’25’EOn 14th Feb at 04:10:13 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 120’59’E Mt Taal, and the RLT (moonrise) was located on Mt Piton de la Fournaise volcano.
On 16th Feb at 04:10:07 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 120’59’E Mt Taal… at “12-hours” later 16:10 UTC, Mt Etna volcano erupted !!
A Mt Etna related T Sequence run to the end of February, indicates that the only “significant” correlations between Mt Etna and other “recently active” volcanoes… only occurs with Mt Taal volcano during the posted dates !
Score: 0115 ptslesterFebruary 17, 2021 at 2:09 pm #10282The following table represents the ATB threshold / Solar Noon relationship between Mt Pacaya volcano in Guatemala on coordinates 90’36’W – 14’22’N, and Mt Etna volcano in Sicily, Italy on coordinates 14’59’E – 37’45’N. The columns include; Dates, ATB time on Mt Pacaya, and longitude position of the sun within 15 arcmins of longitude 14’59’E…
6th Feb – 11:16 UTC ….. 14’31’E
7th Feb – 11:16 UTC ….. 14’32’E
8th Feb – 11:15 UTC ….. 14’48’E *
9th Feb – 11:15 UTC ….. 14’48’E *
10th Feb – 11:15 UTC …. 14’48’E *
11th Feb – 11:15 UTC …. 14’48’E *
12th Feb – 11:14 UTC …. 15’03’E *
13th feb – 11:14 UTC …. 15’03’E *
14th Feb – 11:14 UTC …. 15’02’E *
15th Feb – 11:13 UTC …. 15’17’E
16th Feb – 11:13 UTC …. 15’16’E = ATE threshold located on Mt Taal volcano
17th Feb – 11:13 UTC …. 15’15’E = ATE threshold located on Mt Taal volcano
18th Feb – 11:12 UTC …. 15’29’EOn 14th Feb at 04:22 UTC, the ATB threshold was located on Mt Etna volcano… and it was sunset on Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii.
On 15th Feb at 04:21 UTC, the ATB threshold was located on Mt Etna volcano… and it was sunset on Mt Kilauea volcano in Hawaii.
On 16th Feb at 14:47:00 UTC, the moon was located on longitude 14’59’E Mt Etna, and the sun was located on longitude 38’14’W… the opposite longitude calculates as 141’46’E. The M 7.1 off East coast Honshu, Japan event of 13th February, occurred on longitude 141’43’E.
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterFebruary 16, 2021 at 11:05 am #10279https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=949593
M 6.2 Port-Vila, Vanuatu … 16th February
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterFebruary 14, 2021 at 10:34 pm #10272Mmmm… irradiated fish back on the menu !
10th Feb 12:24:21 UTC – M 6.0 Southeast of Loyalty Islands (first event) … -12-hours = RLT (moonrise) located on Mt Piton de la Fournaise volcano.
10th Feb 13:20:00 UTC – M 7.7 Southeast of Loyalty Islands … -24-hours = moonset on Mt Piton de la Fournaise volcano.
13th Feb 14:07:52 UTC – M 7.1 Off Coast of Eastern Honshu, Japan … -12-hours = Sunrise on Mt Piton de la Fournaise volcano.
Hoping for some Mauritian rougail to go with the anticipated florecent sushi… 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterFebruary 14, 2021 at 10:00 pm #10271https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=949234
M 5.3 Port-Vila, Vanuatu … 14th February
Score: 0115 ptslesterFebruary 14, 2021 at 9:30 pm #10269Three days in Los Angeles… on coordinates 117’57’W – 34’08’N Azusa
10th Feb 01:31 UTC – Sunset in Azusa … Sunset in Port Alberni, Vancouver Island.
10th Feb 08:06 UTC – Sunset on coordinates 141’43’E – 37’45’N pre seismic M 7.1 Off East Coast Honshu, Japan of 13th February … +12-hours = Sun located on longitude 117’57’W … Sunrise on coordinates 149’23’E – 7’17’S pre seismic M 6.0 New Britain P.N.G. of 13th February.
10th Feb 13:20:00 UTC – M 7.7 Southeast of Loyalty Islands … Sun located on longitude 16’27’W (S) … Moon located on longitude 30’40’W (M) … Opposite longitude calculates as 149’20’E New Britain P.N.G. !
10th Feb 14:16:52 UTC – Sun located on longitude 30’40’W (M)… opposite longitude calculates as 149’20’E New Britain P.N.G. … Moonrise in Azusa.
10th Feb 19:22:19 UTC – Moon located on longitude 117’57’W … Moonrise on the pre seismic M 6.0 New Britain epicentre.
11th Feb 13:14:18 UTC – Moon located on longitude 16’27’W (S) … ATB threshold located on Azusa.
11th Feb 20:14:40 UTC – Moon located on longitude 117’57’W … -12-hours = SLT (moonset) located on the pre seismic M 6.0 New Britain epicentre.
12th Feb 02:38:10 UTC – Moon located on longitude 149’23’E New Britain P.N.G. … +12-hours = Sunrise in Azusa.
12th Feb 15:34:03 UTC – Moon located on longitude 38’17’W … opposite longitude calculates as 141’43’E Pre seismic M 7.1 Honshu epicentre … Moonrise in Azusa.
12th Feb 21:03:09 UTC – Moon located on longitude 117’57’W … RLT (moonrise) located on Pre seismic M 6.0 New Britain epicentre … -12-hours = SLT located on pre seismic M 6.0 New Britain epicentre.
13th Feb 09:26:13 UTC – Moon located on longitude 62’03’E … opposite longitude calculates as 117’57’W … -12-hours = Sunrise on the pre seismic M 7.1 Honshu epicentre.
13th Feb 13:13 UTC – ATB threshold located on Azusa … +12-hours = Moonrise on coordinates 101’39’E – 5’39’S M 6.2 Southwest of Sumatra, of 10th February.
……………………………………………………………………………………………As stated above… on 10th Feb at 08:06 UTC, it was sunset on the pre seismic M 7.1 Honshu, Japan epicentre. At “12-hours” later 20:06 UTC, it was sunrise on the pre seismic M 6.0 New Britain epicentre, and the sun was located on longitude 117’57’W Azusa. The following table displays an interesting phenomena regarding the longitude position of the sun, during the first 20 days of February at “20:06 UTC” on each day…
1st Feb – 118’05’W
2nd Feb – 118’03’W
3rd Feb – 118’02’W
4th Feb – 118’00’W
5th Feb – 117’59’W
6th Feb – 117’58’W
7th Feb – 117’58’W
8th Feb – 117’57’W *
9th Feb – 117’57’W *
10th Feb – 117’57’W *
11th Feb – 117’57’W *
12th Feb – 117’57’W *
13th Feb – 117’57’W *
14th Feb – 117’58’W
15th Feb – 117’59’W
16th Feb – 118’00’W
17th Feb – 118’01’W
18th Feb – 118’02’W
19th Feb – 118’03’W
20th Feb – 118’05’WOn 8th February at 08:06 UTC – 20:06 UTC, it was moonset / moonrise on Mt Merapi volcano in Central Java, Indonesia. At 20:06 UTC on this day, the moon was located on longitude 155’54’W Hawaii.
Between 10th – 15th February, sunrise occurs on the M 6.0 New Britain epicentre at 20:06 UTC
As per my methodology, there are currently “very few” seismic or volcanic correlations with the Greater Los Angeles Area… and no “notable” contacts in the ACE satellite data. However, this may change soon as a result of the significant activity listed above. I am not submitting a forecast for this region until seismic attraction is established. Therefore, until this time, the math suggests residents of Los Angeles should be more vigilant in the coming days… because sometimes, all that is needed is the math !!
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterFebruary 13, 2021 at 4:47 pm #10265https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=948837
M 6.0 New Britain P.N.G. … 13th February
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterFebruary 12, 2021 at 6:15 pm #10261https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=948502
M 5.9 Tajikistan … 12th February
Score: 0115 ptslesterFebruary 12, 2021 at 2:02 pm #10259Not drawing any conclusions… but seems to fit the picture !!
As of Thursday 11th February, the PNSN tremor data for Vancouver Island, is indicating that tremors in this region ceased at 01:07:30 UTC on this day. On possible reason that cannot be ignored, is that it has coincided with significant events occurring in the Southeast Loyalty Islands Region.
As posted above on 1st February 1:38 am, the first member of this swarm occurred as an M 1.8 event at 13:25:00 UTC 26th January on coordinates 125’01’W – 49’13’N West of Port Alberni, Vancouver Island. And as further reported, by 30th January the swarm members had encompassed a longitude range of 2.5 degrees. The following table represents sunset times on the first original swarm member, and position of the sun within 15 arcmins of longitude from Mt Klyuchevskoy volcano in Kamchatka, on coordinates 160’28’E – 56’03’N…
7th Feb – 01:28 UTC ….. 161’32’E
8th Feb – 01:29 UTC ….. 161’17’E
9th Feb – 01:31 UTC ….. 160’48’E
10th Feb – 01:33 UTC …. 160’18’E *
11th Feb – 01:34 UTC …. 160’03’E
12th Feb – 01:36 UTC …. 159’33’E
13th feb – 01:38 UTC …. 159’03’EOn 10th Feb at 01:32:23 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 160’28’E
On 11th Feb at 00:15 UTC, it was moonset on the original swarm member west of Port Alberni, and the moon was located on longitude 171’31’E. The M 7.7 Southeast of Loyalty Islands event of 10th February, occurred on longitude 171’28’E !
Another possible consequence of this exemplified relationship, is that activity in the Loyalty Islands region, may “offset” other prospective seismic / volcanic activity. Previous calculations determining other potential targets, may be equally affected… we will have to wait a little longer, and see if this is the case !
Score: 0115 ptslesterFebruary 11, 2021 at 5:57 pm #10258…….”during the past few days……”
The following table represents sunrise times on Mt Pacaya volcano in Guatemala on coordinates 90’36’W – 14’22’N, and the position of the sun within 15 arcmins of longitude 3’37’W… which equates to the opposite forecast longitude of 176’23’E in the Bay of Plenty…
1st Feb – 12:30 UTC ….. 4’06’W
2nd Feb – 12:30 UTC ….. 4’04’W
3rd Feb – 12:30 UTC ….. 4’02’W
4th Feb – 12:30 UTC ….. 4’01’W
5th Feb – 12:29 UTC ….. 3’45’W *
6th Feb – 12:29 UTC ….. 3’44’W *
7th Feb – 12:29 UTC ….. 3’43’W *
8th Feb – 12:29 UTC ….. 3’42’W *
9th Feb – 12:28 UTC ….. 3’27’W *
10th Feb – 12:28 UTC …. 3’27’W *
11th Feb – 12:28 UTC …. 3’27’W *
12th Feb – 12:27 UTC …. 3’12’W
13th Feb – 12:27 UTC …. 3’12’W
14th Feb – 12:26 UTC …. 2’58’WThis table represents sunrise times on the M 7.7 Southeast of Loyalty Islands epicentre of 10th February, on coordinates 171’28’E – 23’15’S… and the position of the sun within 15 arcmins of longitude 90’36’W Mt Pacaya volcano…
1st Feb – 18:13 UTC ….. 89’50’W
2nd Feb – 18:14 UTC ….. 90’04’W
3rd Feb – 18:15 UTC ….. 90’17’W
4th Feb – 18:15 UTC ….. 90’16’W
5th Feb – 18:16 UTC ….. 90’30’W *
6th Feb – 18:17 UTC ….. 90’44’W *
7th Feb – 18:17 UTC ….. 90’43’W *
8th Feb – 18:18 UTC ….. 90’57’W
9th Feb – 18:19 UTC ….. 91’12’W
10th Feb – 18:19 UTC …. 91’12’WOn 5th Feb at 12:40:43 UTC, the moon was located on longitude 90’36’W… and it was moonrise on the pre seismic M 7.7 Southeast of Loyalty Islands epicentre… look at the tables and do the math !
Score: 0115 ptslesterFebruary 11, 2021 at 2:20 pm #10257Digging deeper !…
On 9th Feb at 05:27:38 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 101’39’E… and the SLT (moonset) was located on the pre seismic M 7.7 Southeast of Loyalty Islands epicentre of 10th Feb, on coordinates 171’28’E – 23’15’S.
On 9th Feb at 23:18 UTC, it was sunrise on the pre seismic M 6.2 Southwest of Sumatra epicentre of 10th Feb, on coordinates 101’39’E – 5’39’S… and the moon was located on longitude 171’56’E Loyalty Islands.
On 10th Feb at 12:48 UTC, the ATE threshold was located on the pre seismic M 6.2 Southwest of Sumatra epicentre, and the sun was located on longitude 8’27’W… the opposite longitude calculates as 171’33’E !
…………………………………………………………………………………………………….On 8th Feb at 13:51:22 UTC, the moon was located on longitude 65’57’W… Mt Raung volcano in East Java resides on the opposite longitude of 114’03’E. Also at this time, the RLT (moonrise) was located on coordinates 124’10’W – 49’20’N Strait of Georgia, Vancouver Island Region.
On 9th Feb at 14:50:07 UTC, the moon was again located on longitude 65’57’W… and it was moonrise in the Strait of Georgia on the stated coordinates.
On 10th Feb at 16:37:59 UTC, the moon was located on longitude 78’21’W… the opposite longitude calculates as 101’39’E Southwest of Sumatra. At “12-hours” earlier 04:38:00 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 114’03’E Mt Raung volcano !
Score: 0115 ptslesterFebruary 11, 2021 at 1:10 am #10256Continuing this forecast for 10 days from 01:10 UTC February 11
Sighting the ephemeral time points related to “Full Moon” on 28th January, between Rotorua, New Zealand and Atarfe, Southern Spain. Which now includes a 24 hour window correlation with the M 7.7 Southeast of Loyalty Islands epicentre of 10th February !
Thank you
Score: 0115 ptslesterFebruary 10, 2021 at 11:09 pm #10255Ephemeral time points related to the Loyalty Islands Region…
On 21st January between times 12:41 UTC – 13:46 UTC, the moon was at its furthest distance from Earth, for Apogee at 397,980 km’s. At the former time of 12:41 UTC, it was moonset on coordinates 171’19’E – 23’15’S… equates to 4 arcmins west of the M 7.7 epicentre of 10th Feb, 171’23’E – 23’15’S.
On 22nd January between times 12:25 UTC – 12:56 UTC, the moon was located on the ATE threshold for the duration of this period. At “12-hours” earlier 00:56 UTC, it was moonrise on coordinates 171’19’E – 23’15’S… this also includes 171’23’E !
On 28th January between times 17:13:40 UTC – 17:16:24 UTC, the sun and moon were located on opposite longitudes for the “Full Moon” phase. At 24-hours earlier 17:13:40 UTC 27th Jan, the SLT (moonset) was located on the pre seismic M 7.7 epicentre !
On 3rd February between times 08:17 UTC – 08:40 UTC, the moon was located on the ATB threshold for the duration of this period. At 08:40 UTC, the ATE threshold was located on coordinates 171’38’E – 22’51’S… this is the pre seismic location of the first M 6.0 southeast of Loyalty Islands event of 12:24:21 UTC 10th Feb. At 24-hours earlier 08:17 UTC 2nd Feb, the SLT was located on Mt Piton de la Fournaise volcano !
Magnitude 5+ activity in the Loyalty Islands region is currently extending between longitudes 170’52’E – 172’03’E
Credit to…
http://www.sunrisesunsetmap.com
http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Earth
Score: 0115 ptslesterFebruary 10, 2021 at 8:21 pm #10254Hey JEC… I really appreciate the gesture sir, but the Loyalty Islands were not on on my radar for such events to occur. However, you are correct with your assumption that the tremor activity on Vancouver Island, does correlate to the M 7.7 Loyalty Islands epicentre… but probably not in the way you imagine. I reported that significant swarm activity had begun at Vancouver Island on 26th January. I have re-analysed this period using my model, to see if correlation with the Loyalty Islands was a possibility…
On 23rd Jan at 20:39:45 UTC, the moon was located on longitude 8’32’W. The M 7.7 Loyalty Islands event of today occurred on the opposite longitude of 171’28’E. Whilst the moon was located on longitude 8’32’W, it was moonrise on coordinates 124’06’W – 49’20’N Strait of Georgia, Vancouver Island Region… this location is 4 arcmins east of my forecast coordinates 124’10’W – 49’20’N, posted on 5th February.
On 24th Jan at 12:46:19 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 8’32’W… and it was moonset on coordinates 124’10’W – 49’20’N. At “12-hours” later 00:46:19 UTC 25th Jan, it was moonrise on Mt Kilauea volcano in Hawaii.
This assessment concludes that although there was no “direct” threshold correlations between Vancouver and the Loyalty Islands, it does suggest that they are part of the same seismic cycle. I believe if further time was employed to test all associated scenarios, the Loyalty Islands may have been more prominent in the calculations.
The M 5.5 event in New Britain may, or may not have been attributed to the Vancouver swarm, as my analysis implies… and credit cannot be claimed on this occasion. Purely because it was an independent analysis of “one event”. Similar successful analyses would have to be undertaken on future tremor events to determine credibility. The most favourable aspect of this event, relates to my methodology. I only renew forecasts based on a level of observed correlations. I had not observed correlations with New Britain for two weeks prior to this occurrence… only the tremor data analysis from 26th January was a match !
There will undoubtedly be different causal aspects proposed for the occurrence of the Loyalty Islands events. As part of my contribution, the following is a sample of correlations during 10th February…
On 10th February at 04:14 UTC, an eruption occurred from Mt Ebeko volcano in the northern Kuril Islands, on coordinates 156’01’E – 50’41’N. At “12-hours” earlier 16:14 UTC 9th Feb, the ATE threshold was located on Mt Piton de la Fournaise volcano, Reunion Island, on coordinates 55’42’E – 21’14’S. At “12-hours” later 16:14 UTC 10th Feb, the RLT was located on Mt Kilauea volcano in Hawaii.
At 08:22:31 UTC, an M 5.6 event occurred on the Central East Pacific Rise… at “12-hours” earlier 20:22:31 UTC 9th Feb, the RLT was located on Mt Ebeko volcano.
At 12:24:21 UTC, an M 6.0 event occurred in the Loyalty Islands region… at “12-hours” earlier 00:24:21 UTC, the RLT was located on Mt Piton, and the moon was located on longitude 155’59’E Mt Ebeko.
At 12:52:27 UTC, an M 6.2 event occurred southwest of Sumatra, Indonesia. The moon was located on longitude 24’02’W at this time… the opposite longitude calculates as 155’58’E Mt Ebeko.
AT 13:20:00 UTC, an M 7.7 event occurred in the Loyalty Islands Region. At 24-hours earlier 13:20:00 UTC 9th Feb, it was moonset on Mt Piton de la Fournaise volcano. At “12-hours” later 01:19:21 UTC, the moon will be located on longitude 156’01’E Mt Ebeko volcano !
Other related events during February include…
3rd Feb 00:49:45 UTC – M 5.3 Southeast of Loyalty Islands -12-hours = ATE threshold located on coordinates 101’39’E – 5’39’S Pre seismic M 6.2 Southwest of Sumatra on 10th Feb.
3rd Feb 00:51:36 UTC – M 5.3 Southeast of Loyalty Islands = Moon located on longitude 55’41’E Mt Piton de la Fournaise volcano
7th Feb 02:58:19 UTC – M 5.0 Southeast of Loyalty Islands -12-hours = Sunset on Mt Piton de la Fournaise volcano
There are currently no reports of volcanic activity from Mt Piton de la Fournaise volcano. But I am speculating that this will change soon… and then we will have to evaluate which “aspect” is more credible !
As a side note… I am purposely refraining from forecasts in the region of southern China. I believe you have a valid point regarding compression / inflation related to water volume. And also believe it is a question of when , not if… therefore, also a question of timing. I offer contributions if it is requested, but it is a pointless exercise if two competing theories are “interdependently” aiming for the same target… as occasionally happens too me !
Apologies for my extended reply… and thank you again for your kind remarks… 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterFebruary 9, 2021 at 12:20 pm #10251https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=947175
M 5.5 New Britain P.N.G. … 9th February
Event occurred 62 km’s (39 miles) Northeast of PNSN analysis coordinates !
Continuing this forecast for 5 days from 12:20 UTC February 9
Thank you
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