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115 ptslesterFebruary 8, 2021 at 4:47 pm #10250
https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=946984
M 5.0 Hokkaido, Japan … 8th February
Score: 0115 ptslesterFebruary 8, 2021 at 1:39 am #10248https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=946503
Didn’t make the grade… but still worthy of some recognition !
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 1115 ptslesterFebruary 6, 2021 at 11:43 pm #10247On Saturday 6th February at 23:18 UTC, Mt Sakurajima volcano erupted in kyushu, Japan… one minute after this watch was submitted !
At “12-hours” earlier 11:18 UTC, the SLT was located on Mt Stromboli volcano, and it was moonset on Mt Etna volcano !
Score: 0115 ptslesterFebruary 6, 2021 at 5:48 pm #10245The tremor map indicates activity occurring in the Strait of Georgia during 5th February (data published 6th Feb !)… first incursion into this region since swarm began on 26th January !
The USGS archive shows that the last 5+ event to occur “on” Vancouver Island was in 1975… therefore, the odds of success with this forecast are very slim indeed. Researching the tremor data for the year 2020, has relieved that incursions of tremors into the Strait of Georgia, only occurred on 3 dates; 16th March, 18th May, 13th Sept. Eruptive events from Mt Piton de la Fournaise volcano occurred on; 2nd April, 17th May ( M 5.2 Vancouver Island region 23rd May) and 4th December. However, it appears that the 4th December event was the climax of a slow buildup period which was initiated on 20th September.
There were no similarity’s in activity during 2020 to match the tremor data currently being displayed !
Score: 0115 ptslesterFebruary 6, 2021 at 2:19 pm #10244You opened 6 threads relating to locations in US west coast and inland regions, during the last five weeks. You have not had a positive result, and thrown in the towel on at least two of these forecasts. Yet you got a “successful” forecast outside of Quake Watch… where ?
There are now several earthquake sites on the internet since I started prediction… and their popularity ranges from 200 K – 2.5 K. Yet in nearly all cases, it is the same 2 or 3 people that are always posting… where are the “thousands” of others that follow these sites ?
Going off these statistics, you can conclude that earthquake prediction is not a very popular past time. And it is a particular kind of individual that will pursue something that gives virtually no credit or recognition, for the time and effort they invest in trying to make a difference. Many of these websites and Facebook groups publish all different kinds of data relating to earthquakes. And much of this is presented in the form of impressive looking colourful graphs, or virtual topography etc. It is easy to be impressed by what is available to the public, which presumably contributes towards tracking down pre seismic anomalies. You say you want to be as “scientific and exact as possible”… Why ?. Are the same people who post these pretty graphs, making successful forecasts and predictions ?
I think you are having a mid-quake crisis, and trying to absorb a lot of unnecessary information… which you have basically admitted yourself. If you make small improvements and follow the same hypothesis, it is likely that you will be back at this stage again in another 12 months. If you decide to change direction, I will be here, remaining loyal to QUAKE WATCH where things are “simple” !
A tremor is an “event” related to seismicity… or something you get when filling in your tax return… 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterFebruary 6, 2021 at 12:14 pm #10242https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=946215
On 6th February at 07:05:02 UTC, an M 5.0 event occurred in the US Virgin islands on longitude 64’48’W. The opposite longitude calculates as 110’12’E… 11 arcmins west of Mt Merapi volcano in Central Java.
On 7th February at 07:05:02 UTC, it will be moonset on Mt Merapi volcano !
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterFebruary 4, 2021 at 2:05 pm #10227https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=945348
M 5.1 Tonga Region … 3rd February
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterFebruary 2, 2021 at 4:25 pm #10222Observed…
24th Jan 14:26:43 UTC – M 5.2 Mindanao, Philippines +24-hours = Moonset on Leilani Estates
25th Jan 12:43 UTC – Mt Sakurajima eruption -12-hours = Moonrise on Leilani Estates
25th Jan 14:24:44 UTC – M 5.0 Taiwan Region = Moonset on Leilani Estates (ref; Mindanao !)
27th Jan 04:08:26 UTC – M 5.0 South Shetland Islands = Sunset on Leilani Estates
2nd Feb 14:37:41 UTC – M 5.0 Kapulauan Talaud, Indonesia = Moon located on longitude 155’55’W Honaunau Napoopoo
3rd Feb 09:21 UTC – 21:21 UTC = Moonrise / Moonset on Leilani Estates = “12-hours”
These events are the only seismic / volcanic correlations I have observed in relation to Hawaii since 23rd January. Judgement call is that the “January” events contributed towards the M 4.1 Fern Forest event of 00:13:09 UTC 2nd February. And the Kapulauan Talaud event may indicate a new period of volcanic attraction. Just expressing thoughts, my last judgement call was that Mt Raung volcano in east Java, was just turning in its sleep… it erupted two days later 🙁
Score: 0115 ptslesterFebruary 2, 2021 at 3:50 pm #10221I grew up in a farming community, the closest I and my friends got to getting high, was drinking homemade dandelion wine at the local barn dance. Never got into motor cycles, so I guess my version of “easy rider” was taking a tractor for a spin in the top meadow… 🙂
I was never a role model to anyone, but in recent years I happened upon a talented youngster in Nigeria who produced exquisite art work. I am not really the charitable do gooder type, but decided to fund his time at art college… that is until the Pan-Damn-It shut them all down. So I have now bought him some land, and paid for construction of a building for a chicken farm. He will be selling eggs in about six months, and shouldn’t have a problem selling meat birds because they still practice voodoo in that region 🙂
Quakes… I saw potential for San Francisco when I started my forecast last week. But I have not observed any “relevant” seismic / volcanic correlations with the US West Coast during this last weekly period. I think my next move here will be when I observe something in the ACE data !
Score: 0115 ptslesterFebruary 1, 2021 at 7:57 pm #10217Very gracious offer Mark, and I appreciate you forwarding personal options. But we are both Quake nuts (lol), and are contributing more by posting our thoughts and theories on this site. I have theories and like solving puzzles… it keeps me occupied, and is far more interesting than doing the daily crossword. I was on a real downer last week when I posted my comments, due mostly to the Pan-Damn-It… nice one 🙂
Thanks for the thought buddy…
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 1115 ptslesterFebruary 1, 2021 at 2:57 am #10213Observed…
There has been a total of ten 3+ events in the region of Puerto Rico during the hours of 31st January. These events span a longitude range between 65’21’W – 65’27’W… the opposite longitudes calculate as 114’39’E – 114’33’E. A result of approx one degree west of the target coordinates of this forecast on Bali Island !
Score: 0115 ptslesterFebruary 1, 2021 at 2:19 am #10212If I am reading the PNSN data correctly for 31st January. It is showing 490 epicentres up to 23:25 UTC. I checked an hour ago and there was no posted data… perhaps they were late uploading the days events !
We use different methods, so I am assuming this is the cause of your concern ?
Score: 0115 ptslesterFebruary 1, 2021 at 1:38 am #10211Analysis… credit to Mark for providing PNSN data !
On 26th January at 13:25:00 UTC, an M 1.8 event occurred west of Port Alberni, Vancouver Island, Canada, on coordinates 125’01’W – 49’13’N. This event was the first of a swarm which totalled 54 up to the end of this day (UTC). At 13:25 UTC, moonrise was accompanied by the ATB threshold on approx coordinates 118’17’W – 34’00’N in the Downtown area of Los Angeles. At “12-hours” earlier 01:25 UTC, it was sunset in Concord, San Francisco Bay Area.
The T Sequence for 26th January showed that the ATB threshold was located on this epicentre at 14:07 UTC… at “12-hours” earlier 02:07 UTC, it was moonset ESE of Bristol Island, South Sandwich Islands.
Sunrise occurred on this epicentre at 15:58 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 56’20’W at this time… the opposite longitude calculates as 123’40’E. On 27th Jan at 04:19:57 UTC, an M 5.0 event occurred in Minahasi, Sulawesi on coordinates 123’30’E – 0’01’N. At “12-hours” later 16:19:57 UTC, the SLT was located on Mt Kilauea volcano in Hawaii.
At 20:32:46 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 125’01’W, therefore Solar Noon on the M 1.8 epicentre. At “12-hours” earlier 08:32:46 UTC, the moon was located on longitude 156’10’W. On 27th Jan at 22:07:53 UTC, an M 3.3 event occurred Southwest of Captain Cook, Hawaii on coordinates 156’14’W – 19’11’N… a rare location for those who are familiar with seismicity in this region. Also at this Hawaiian event time, it was sunset on Zavadovski Island, South Sandwich Islands.
The ATE threshold was located on the M 1.8 epicentre at 02:56 UTC, and this ATE threshold was shared with Concord, in the San Francisco Bay Area. At “12-hours” earlier 14:56 UTC 25th Jan, the SLT was located on the M 1.8 epicentre, and it was sunrise in the Thousand Oaks region of Los Angeles.
Moonset occurred on the M 1.8 epicentre at 14:52 UTC… it was sunrise in the Glendale region of Los Angeles.
On 25th Jan at 17:56:53 UTC, the moon was located on longitude 54’59’E… the opposite longitude calculates as 125’01’W. At “12-hours” later 05:56:53 UTC 26th Jan, the moon was located on longitude 118’36’W !
On 26th Jan at 06:23:30 UTC, the moon was located on longitude 125’01’W. At “12-hours” later 18:23:30 UTC, the moon was located on longitude 61’31’E… the opposite longitude calculates as 118’29’W.
This concludes T Sequence analysis of this M 1.8 epicentre… one down, fifty three to go !
…………………………………………………………………………………………………According to the PNSN data, the swarm of 26th January was the first notable activity in this region since the start of the year… apart from 5 events on 23rd January that did not surpass 1.1 magnitude. Therefore, something must have happened on the 26th to instigate the swarm activity.
On 26th January between times 11:33:00 UTC – 19:45:13 UTC, the moon had reached its highest lateral position for the month of January, at latitude 24’53’N. And remained on this latitude for the duration of this period… commonly referred to as a “Lunar Standstill”.
On 25th Jan at 13:56:40 UTC, the sun was located on “26’04’W”… the SLT was located on the M 1.8 Vancouver epicentre… and the moon was located on longitude 112’56’E… Mt Semeru volcano in east Java resides on 112’55’E. At 23:33 UTC 25th Jan, the moon was located on longitude “26’04’W”… at “12-hours” later 11:33 UTC 26th Jan, the moon was located on coordinates 160’25’E – 24’53’N, for the first second of the “Lunar Standstill” period !
On 25th Jan at 21:57:51 UTC, it was moonrise on the M 1.8 Vancouver epicentre, and the moon was located on longitude 3’07’W Southern Spain. At 24-hours later 21:57:51 UTC 26th Jan, the moon was located on longitude “9’54’E”… at the first second of “Lunar Standstill” 11:33 UTC, the sun was located on longitude “9’54’E” !
………………………………………………………………………………………………………..The occurrence of a seismic swarm can give indication that either “notable” activity in the same vicinity, may be a near future possibility. Or, it may indicate similar notable activity on a shared fault line. However, I have used seismic swarms several times as part of my methodology, to track down potential seismic anomalies in other regions of the world… comparing them to a kind of warning sign.
The seismic swarm in Vancouver, which started from an M 1.8 event on 26th Jan, has continued each day up to the present. I have analysed the swarm data between dates 26th – 30th Jan to try and establish a pattern. The following table represents the longitude positions most easterly (E) and westerly (W) members of the ongoing swarm, from each of the five days stated. These are accompanied by the ATE times on each epicentre, the longitude of the sun at these times…
26th Jan – 124’19’W (E) … 14:04 UTC – 27’51’W
26th Jan – 125’18’W (W) … 14:08 UTC – 28’51’W27th Jan – 124’10’W (E) … 14:02 UTC – 27’18’W
27th Jan – 125’31’W (W) … 14:08 UTC – 28’48’W28th Jan – 124’33’W (E) … 14:03 UTC – 27’30’W
28th Jan – 125’36’W (W) … 14:08 UTC – 28’45’W29th Jan – 124’01’W (E) … 14:00 UTC – 26’42’W
29th Jan – 125’33’W (W) … 14:06 UTC – 28’12’W30th Jan – 124’02’W (E) … 13:59 UTC – 26’25’W
30th Jan – 126’12’W (W) … 14:08 UTC – 28’40’WAs this table shows, the sun was located within a 2.5 degree Solar Noon range of the “South Sandwich Islands”. However, the same could apply on the opposite longitude, in the New Britain Region P.N.G. The data that is most significant in this table, relates to the ATB times, as 80% correlated to the same time of 14:08 UTC. Extrapolate these, and including opposite solar longitudes (O), and the results are as follows
26th Jan – 14:08 UTC … 28’51’W – 151’09’E (O)
27th Jan – 14:08 UTC … 28’48’W – 151’12’E (O)
28th Jan – 14:08 UTC … 28’45’W – 151’15’E (O)
30th Jan – 14:08 UTC … 28’40’W – 151’20’E (O)This table now gives an indication of longitude parameters, which helps to focus other data sets to specific targets. The results suggest that search parameters of 11 minutes of Arc, narrow the search down to three potential locations. The most prominent in the West is the South Sandwich Islands, and the 28 degree longitude range usually signifies activity Northwest of Zavodovski Island in the northern region. On the opposite longitude, locations include the frequently active New Britain Region, and the less frequently active Kuril Islands. These locations are very familiar targets in the predictors list of “usual suspects”… but I have been caught out several times in the past, by activity occurring in the Bismarck Sea or New Ireland Region in the 151’E longitude range !
……………………………………………………………………………………………On 26th January when the first swarm members appeared on Vancouver Island, it was sunrise on Mt Etna volcano in Sicily, Italy at 06:09 UTC. Also at this time, it was moonrise on coordinates 151’20’E – 5’35’S west of Malakua, New Britain P.N.G.
On 28th Jan at 07:57 UTC, it was moonrise on coordinates 151’20’E – 5’35’S New Britain… at “12-hours” later 19:57 UTC, it was sunrise on the same coordinates = “12-hours”.
On 28th Jan at 07:57 UTC, it was moonrise in New Britain on the stated coordinates… and moonset on coordinates 17’50’W – 28’35’N Island of La Palma in the Canary Islands. At 4 minutes later 08:01 UTC, sunrise was accompanied by the SLT (moonset) on the Island of La Palma !
On 31st January at 08:32:54 UTC, an M 1.8 event occurred on the Island of La Palma. This was the first member of a swarm that was progressing at the time of this post. At 08:32:54 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 55’08’E… the opposite longitude calculates as 124’52’W Vancouver Island, Canada. The first swarm member occurred here on 26th January on longitude 125’01’W !
The South Sandwich Islands, and Kuril Islands are currently work in progress for Separate forecasts. I will be moving on the Sandwich islands region upon expiry of my Mt kerinci volcano forecast (which now appears to be related to seismicity !) Mt kerinci prediction was formulated from the M 6.9 South Shetland Islands event of 23rd January for a 10 day period. A suggestion of an M 6.2 – M 7.2 event in the Sandwich Islands region within 48 hours of the South Shetland event, is now “past due”. As both locations were determined from the same event, it is only fair that allotted time period should be the same. I have in my time here, predicted volcanic eruptions within a stated 48 hours, but a 7.2 earthquake within the same time period is beyond my expertise. It reminds me of a quote I once heard in an old movie “you can’t argue with a confident man”… Karma points for guessing the movie 🙂
Thank you
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterJanuary 29, 2021 at 11:32 pm #10196Observed… M 5.6 Panama-Costa Rica border region 12:41:39 UTC 29th Jan … 82’57’w – 8’11’N
The following table represents; Dates, ATE time on Mt Etna volcano, Sun longitude position within 15 minutes of Arc from longitude 82’57’W…
20th Jan – 17:41 UTC …. 82’27’W
21st Jan – 17:42 UTC …. 82’38’W
22nd Jan – 17:43 UTC …. 82’49’W *
23rd Jan – 17:44 UTC …. 83’00’W ** = Moonset on Mt Kerangatang volcano
24th Jan – 17:45 UTC …. 83:12 W *
25th Jan – 17:46 UTC …. 83’23’WOn 29th Jan at 16:35 UTC, an explosive event occurred from Mt Sakurajima volcano in Kyushu, Japan. at “12-hours” earlier 04:35 UTC, the ATB threshold was located on Mt Etna volcano !
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterJanuary 29, 2021 at 2:24 am #10191On 28th January at 21:58 UTC, an eruptive event occurred from Mt klyuchevskoy volcano in Kamchatka… the SLT was located on Mt Ebeko volcano.
on 29th January at 00:04 UTC, an eruptive event occurred from Mt Ebeko volcano (!)… at “12-hours” earlier 12:04 UTC 28th Jan, the ATE threshold was located on Mt Raung volcano in East Java !
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