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115 ptslesterDecember 25, 2020 at 9:30 pm #10003
https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=932593
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 25, 2020 at 8:30 pm #10002https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=932312
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterDecember 24, 2020 at 6:32 pm #9994Observed… M 4.9 Puerto Rico 16:56:39 UTC 24th Dec (4.8 USGS). The ATE threshold was located in Parga, on the west coast of Greece, and the ATB threshold was located on Port-Olry, Vanuatu. At “12-hours” earlier 04:56:39 UTC, it was sunrise east of Zavodovski Island, South Sandwich Islands !
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 24, 2020 at 5:32 pm #9993It was the night before Christmas… and something was stirring in Puerto Rico !!
During the first two weeks of January 2020, I noted a double threshold relationship was continuing between the Island of Puerto Rico, and Mt Taal volcano in the Philippines. These relationships consisted of the ATB threshold being located on Puerto Rico, at the same time it was sunset on Mt Taal volcano. At an average of 1 hour 40 minutes later, it was sunrise on Puerto Rico, and the ATE threshold was located on Mt Taal volcano. This relationship ceased on 12th January, as the threshold angles changed with the suns northerly motion, towards summer in the northern hemisphere. On 7th January at 08:24:26 UTC, an M 6.4 event occurred in Puerto Rico. Then five days later on 12th January at 07:01 UTC, a spectacular eruption occurred from Mt Taal volcano. It is my belief that this “long duration correlation” contributed towards events at these locations !
With this early 2020 seismic / volcanic relationship in mind, I have compiled a table relating to the sunrise / sunset relationship currently continuing between Puerto Rico and Mt Merapi volcano during the month of December. In my experience, the ATB / ATE thresholds produce the most influence, therefore a spectacular eruption may not be on the cards for this relationship. I have used the original M 6.4 epicentre coordinates in Puerto Rico as a base reference. The columns relate to Date, Sunrise time in Puerto Rico, and Sunset time on Mt Merapi volcano…
1st Dec – 10:42 UTC ….. 10:43 UTC
2nd Dec – 10:43 UTC ….. 10:44 UTC
3rd Dec – 10:44 UTC ….. 10:44 UTC *
4th Dec – 10:44 UTC ….. 10:45 UTC
5th Dec – 10:45 UTC ….. 10:45 UTC *
6th Dec – 10:45 UTC ….. 10:46 UTC
7th Dec – 10:46 UTC ….. 10:46 UTC *
8th Dec – 10:47 UTC ….. 10:47 UTC *
9th Dec – 10:47 UTC ….. 10:47 UTC *
10th Dec – 10:48 UTC …. 10:48 UTC *
11th Dec – 10:48 UTC …. 10:48 UTC *
12th Dec – 10:49 UTC …. 10:49 UTC *
13th Dec – 10:49 UTC …. 10:49 UTC *
14th Dec – 10:50 UTC …. 10:50 UTC *
15th Dec – 10:51 UTC …. 10:50 UTC
16th Dec – 10:51 UTC …. 10:51 UTC *
17th Dec – 10:52 UTC …. 10:51 UTC
18th Dec – 10:52 UTC …. 10:52 UTC *
19th Dec – 10:53 UTC …. 10:52 UTC
20th Dec – 10:53 UTC …. 10:53 UTC *
21st Dec – 10:54 UTC …. 10:53 UTC
22nd Dec – 10:54 UTC …. 10:54 UTC *
23rd Dec – 10:55 UTC …. 10:54 UTC
24th Dec – 10:55 UTC …. 10:55 UTC *
25th Dec – 10:56 UTC …. 10:55 UTC
26th Dec – 10:56 UTC …. 10:56 UTC *
27th Dec – 10:57 UTC …. 10:56 UTC
28th Dec – 10:57 UTC …. 10:57 UTC *
29th Dec – 10:57 UTC …. 10:57 UTC *
30th Dec – 10:58 UTC …. 10:58 UTC *
31st Dec – 10:58 UTC …. 10:58 UTC *Data sourced from http://www.sunrisesunsetmap.com
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 24, 2020 at 4:08 pm #9992On 24th December at 04:19:14 UTC, an M 5.1 event occurred east of Zavodovski Island in the south Sandwich Islands. At the time of this event, it was sunrise south of Bristol Island in the same region… the sun was located on longitude 115’06’E Bali Island, Indonesia… and the ATB threshold was located in Parga, on the west coast of Greece on coordinates 20’28’E – 39’15’N.
A single solar correlation in this region producing a notable result, would be akin to boiling a saucepan of milk, with a laser cannon in 3 seconds flat. The most likely scenario is that a buildup has been in progress since correlations were observed for your 16th November “Ionian Region” forecast. This is just one more correlation contributing towards turning up the heat in this region !
Considering recent activity in Greece, the accumulated data does suggest a seismic anomaly may be present. But as this correlation does not focus on the same tracks as previous observations. The odds favor activity in the region of Bristol Island, South Sandwich Islands !
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 24, 2020 at 3:33 pm #9991I believe you are referring to “cloud data”, which is corresponding with seismic correlations at specific locations !
Different angles of approach will inevitably come to the same conclusion, if “credible” data is used to determine said locations. I am not a fan of conjectural reasoning, were by speculation and assumptions are made, to explain results of an occurrence that originates from a prior source. If a theoretical scenario can not be backed up by some form of “testable” data, it cannot be regarded as a practical hypothesis. My own method is based on observations. And I try to describe how these observations can be formulated, to explain how they contribute towards seismic and volcanic determinations. The source material for this formula occurs on a daily basis, I publish my observations, and it is then open to scrutiny by those who wish to verify my findings.
Oh!… don’t talk to me about Gmail’s 🙁
I can receive Gmail, but cannot respond. I have several replies that did not reach their destinations… so I can only assume they are still floating about in cyber space. Rectifying the problem is frustratingly delayed due to maintenance disruption, resulting from the pandemic. Bad for me, but I know a few academics that are going to have a nice peaceful Christmas… 🙂
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterDecember 24, 2020 at 1:09 am #9983Observed… M 5.2 Southern Sumatra 22:19:55 UTC 23rd Dec. At the time of this event, the sun was located on longitude 155’06’W, and it was sunrise on Mt Merapi volcano in Central Java. At “12-hours” earlier 10:19:55 UTC, the moon was located on longitude 130’51’E. Mt Sakurajima volcano in Kyushu, Japan, resides on longitude 130’39’E… influential distance equates to 12 minutes of Arc !!
Please refer to 23rd Dec in Mt Merapi table above…
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 24, 2020 at 12:48 am #9982The sun can incident influence up to 15 minutes of Arc east / west of its longitude position relative to Earth. Range of influence is in proportion with the suns distance from the Earth. The difference between Earth Aphelion and perihelion is approximately 3 million miles. At an average distance 93 million miles from the sun, this small margin has a negligible effect on the influential range of the sun.
The moon on the other hand being a closer celestial body, can incident influence within a range of 15 Arc minutes, out to 30 Arc minutes east / west of longitude depending on its orbital distance. This is kind of like two magnets moving close together on upper and lower parallel levels. Before the magnets start to eclipse each other, at an influential distance the magnets are drawn to each other prior to full contact. And the same affect is apparent when drawing the magnets apart. Adjusting the height of the upper magnet decreases the influential distance, and partial eclipse may occur before influence is achieved. The moon alters its distance from Earth twice a month for Perigee and Apogee. When the moon is in close proximity to Earth for Perigee, for several days during this period, moon influence can be calculated as an average of 30 minutes of Arc. when it is in the period of Apogee, the influence decreases because of the distance, and reduces to an average range of 15 minutes of Arc.
You pointed out a good observation, and indeed at first glance the moon definitely looks like it is in the longitude neighborhood of Mt Etna. But the math indicates that the moon was actually located on longitude 16’06’E. Mt Etna resides on longitude 14’59’E, so this subtends a difference of 1.12 degrees or 67 minutes of Arc.
The actual focus of the stated correlation was the 12-hour window theory, and the moons position at this time had no relevant influence on something that happened 12 hours earlier… this was down to the sunrise threshold. I guess this is a long winded way of saying that I try to use precision with my determinations, and in no way does it discredit your observation… and it is also nice to know that somebody actually reads this stuff 🙂
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterDecember 23, 2020 at 1:10 am #9976When Mt Etna erupted at 02:00 UTC 22nd Dec, the moon was located on longitude 117’27’W, and the RLT was located on Mt Ebeko volcano… I am speculating another event here in the next 24 hours !
At 20:30 UTC on this day, an eruption occurred from Mt Suwanosejima volcano in the Ryukyu Islands. Combining these two events calculates as moonrise on approx 117’20’W, extending from San Bernardino to Searles Valley. However, the RLT was located on Glendale, Los Angeles at this time. I carried out a thorough assessment of Los Angeles resulting in my post of yesterday. Los Angeles has received multiple correlations during the last 4 weeks, but the trick is to observe which region receives the most contacts. My analysis shows Glendale at the top of the list, and San Bernardino a long way behind. This is my contribution because this forecast is for Los Angeles, but I am also taking into account that the moon was located on longitude 27’19’W when this event occurred… this is within the realms of the South Sandwich Islands 🙂
Good call on Syria… excellent example of a lunar correlation producing a result !!
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 22, 2020 at 8:33 pm #9975As another example… On 21st December at 09:09 UTC, an eruption occurred from Mt Etna volcano in Sicily, Italy. Another T sequence was run on this volcano, and it revealed that Mt Etna had an ATB / Solar Noon relationship with Mt Merapi volcano. The following columns refer to Date starting from relevant point, times that the ATB threshold was located on Mt Etna, and longitude position of the sun at these times. I have also included correlations related to Mt Sheveluch volcano in Kamchatka.
12th Dec 04:32 UTC ….. 110’27’E
13th Dec 04:32 UTC ….. 110’34’E
14th Dec 04:33 UTC ….. 110’26’E
15th Dec 04:34 UTC ….. 110’18’E
16th Dec 04:34 UTC ….. 110’26’E
17th Dec 04:35 UTC ….. 110’18’E – Sunset on Mt Sheveluch
18th Dec 04:35 UTC ….. 110’25’E
19th Dec 04:36 UTC ….. 110’18’E – Sunset on Mt Sheveluch
20th Dec 04:37 UTC ….. 110’10’E
21st Dec 04:37 UTC ….. 110’18’E – sunset on Mt Sheveluch
22nd Dec 04:38 UTC ….. 110’10’E
23rd Dec 04:38 UTC ….. 110’18’E – Sunset on Mt Sheveluch
24th Dec 04:38 UTC ….. 110’25’E – Sunset on Mt Sheveluch
25th Dec 04:39 UTC ….. 110’17’E – sunset on Mt Sheveluch
26th Dec 04:39 UTC ….. 110’25’E
27th Dec 04:40 UTC ….. 110’17’E
28th Dec 04:40 UTC ….. 110’25’E
29th Dec 04:40 UTC ….. 110’32’E
30th Dec 04:41 UTC ….. 110’24’E
31st Dec 04:41 UTC ….. 110’31’EThe table indicates that Mt Etna will be joining forces with Mt Sheveluch during the Christmas period… that may be interesting. Mt Sheveluch volcano erupted at 00:20 UTC 22nd December… at “12-hours earlier 12:20 UTC 21st Dec, it was moonset on the volcano itself !
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 22, 2020 at 6:15 pm #9974A case file for Mt Merapi volcano….
One major aspect of my hypothesis is the belief that seismic and volcanic activity is self propagating i.e. one volcano can influence activity at another volcano via the solar / lunar thresholds. In most cases it is a question of multiple notable events occurring within a short period of time, and correlating these events to one particular location. The advantage of trying to forecast volcanic activity over tracking down seismic anomalies, is that we already know where the volcanoes are. The problem is however, that my method only works on a select few locations, and in some cases I can find myself going in the right direction, but travelling on the wrong track e.g. following the ATB track on Mt Kerinci volcano in Central Sumatra, and ignoring the sunrise track on Mt Sheveluch volcano in Kamchatka. Both thresholds were located on these volcanoes at the same time for 3 weeks… Mt Shiveluch erupted today, Mt Kerinci did not. It may be a fact that some volcanoes that have remained silent for several months, or at least 3 years, may need a wake up call through long duration correlation with a recently active volcano. to explain this further, the following case file should provide more clarity to this theory,
On Monday 21st December, an eruptive event occurred from Mt Kilauea volcano on Big Island Hawaii. To determine if this volcano has any long duration correlations with any other volcanoes, I carried out what I refer to as a T sequence run. This is a process of locating the various solar thresholds on a subject location, and following the global tracks to see if contact is made with other volcanoes. The thresholds employed in this T sequence includes; ATB (Astronomical Twilight Begins) were night becomes day … Sunrise … Solar Noon (High Noon) influence extends 15 minutes of Arc east / west of the suns longitude position … Sunset … ATE (Astronomical Twilight Ends) were day becomes night. You can find a good example of these thresholds at http://www.timeanddate.com ref; Day and Night World Map.
After carrying out a T sequence run on Mt Kilauea volcano, the only long duration correlation I could determine, was with Mt Merapi volcano in Central Java, Indonesia. From the last week of November until the last week of January 2021, Mt Merapi volcano shares a sunrise / solar noon relationship with volcanoes on the Island of Hawaii. The following table for the month of December, give example of how this relationship works. The columns relate to Date, Sunrise times on Mt Merapi volcano, and Sun longitude position at these times. Mt Kilauea volcano is located on longitude 155’16’W…
1st Dec 22:11 UTC ….. 155’24’W
2nd Dec 22:12 UTC ….. 155’34’W
3rd Dec 22:12 UTC ….. 155’28’W
4th Dec 22:12 UTC ….. 155’21’W
5th Dec 22:13 UTC ….. 155’30’W
6th Dec 22:13 UTC ….. 155’24’W
7th Dec 22:13 UTC ….. 155’17’W
8th Dec 22:14 UTC ….. 155’26’W
9th Dec 22:14 UTC ….. 155’19’W
10th Dec 22:14 UTC …. 155’12’W
11th Dec 22:15 UTC …. 155’20’W
12th Dec 22:15 UTC …. 155’13’W
13th Dec 22:16 UTC …. 155’21’W
14th Dec 22:16 UTC …. 155’14’W
15th Dec 22:17 UTC …. 155’21’W
16th Dec 22:17 UTC …. 155’14’W
17th Dec 22:17 UTC …. 155’07’W
18th Dec 22:18 UTC …. 155’14’W
19th Dec 22:18 UTC …. 155’07’W
20th Dec 22:19 UTC …. 155’14’W
21st Dec 22:19 UTC …. 155’07’W
22nd Dec 22:20 UTC …. 155’14’W
23rd Dec 22:20 UTC …. 155’07’W
24th Dec 22:21 UTC …. 155’14’W
25th Dec 22:21 UTC …. 155’07’W
26th Dec 22:22 UTC …. 155’15’W
27th Dec 22:22 UTC …. 155’07’W
28th Dec 22:23 UTC …. 155’15’W
29th Dec 22:23 UTC …. 155’08’W
30th Dec 22:24 UTC …. 155’16’W
31st Dec 22:25 UTC …. 155’24’WMore recent T sequence correlations with Mt Merapi volcano include…
19th Dec 21:15:57 UTC – The RLT (Rising Lunar Threshold) was located on Volcano, Hawaii … the moon was located on longitude 69’33’W, the opposite longitude calculates as 110’27’E
21st Dec 16:36:36 UTC – Moonset on Mt Merapi volcano … Sun located on longitude 69’33’W, opposite longitude calculates as 110’27’E
22nd Dec 04:36:51 UTC – Moon located on longitude 155’34’W … Sun located on longitude 110’27’E
Mt Merapi volcano last erupted on Sunday 21st June 2020 !
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterDecember 21, 2020 at 10:30 pm #9966Observed… M 5.1 Kermadec Islands 20:07:55 UTC = Moonrise in Glendale, Los Angeles !
http://www.sunrisesunsetmap.com
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 21, 2020 at 6:11 pm #9965On 21st December, a significant earthquake swarm began in the region of Mt kilauea volcano in Hawaii. First member occurred as an M 2.0 at 02:53:55 UTC, and the event prior to this occurred as an M 2.0 at 10 hours 40 minutes earlier 16:14:38 UTC 20th December. This may be relevant because checking through records of previous days, this appears to be a very significant gap in time, considering today’s eruption of Mt Kilauea volcano. At “12-hours” prior to the first member occurring 14:53:55 UTC 20th December, it was sunrise in Los Angeles !
On 21st December at 07:40 UTC, an explosion occurred from Mt Sakurajima volcano in Kyushu, Japan. At “12-hours” earlier 19:40 UTC 20th December, it was moonrise in Los Angeles !
Referring to my Ephemeral data, it states that on 7th December between times 22:37 UTC – 23:05 UTC, the moon was located central on the sunrise threshold, during the period of Last Quarter moon phase. The ephemeral points relate to the first and last solar / lunar contact times… the actual transit time does not seem to hold any influential properties. The most influential aspect of First / Last Quarter moon phase, is when the sun is located on the lunar threshold. During the stated phase between times 00:45 UTC – 01:10 UTC 8th December, the sun was located central on the moonset threshold. At 00:45 UTC, it was sunset in Los Angeles !
When these data sets are combined, the math calculates as Sunrise-moonrise-sunset in the Glendale region of Los Angeles on approx coordinates 118’15’W – 34’05’N.
Further to the two volcanoes mentioned above, an eruption also occurred from Mt Etna volcano in Sicily, Italy at 09:09 UTC 21st December. I re checked the T sequence for Los Angeles, and found the following… On 17th December at 19:50 UTC, it was moonrise in Volcano, Hawaii, and the sun was located on longitude 118’22’W. On 18th December at 19:50 UTC, the SLT was located on Mt Etna volcano, and the sun was located on longitude 118’15’W. On 19th December at 19:52:28 UTC, the moon was located on longitude 49’21’W, the opposite longitude calculates as 130’39’E… Mt Sakurajima volcano resides on this longitude. Also at this time, the sun was located on longitude 118’45’W
On 21st December at 13:26 UTC, a significant aspect change was recorded in the ACE MAG data. The ATB threshold was located on Los Angeles, and again appears to correspond with the Glendale region. Further to this, an aspect change has occurred in the magnetometer stackplot data at approx 14:50 UTC. Individual minutes are not determinable in this data, but as example; at 14:53 UTC it was moonset on Mt Sakurajima volcano… and sunrise in Los Angeles. This is also the case with the TROMSO data !
http://flux.phys.uit.no/cgi-bin/mkstackplot.cgi
Conclusion based on correlations with the aforementioned volcanoes. The data suggests that a “notable” event may occur in the Greater Los Angeles Area as you predicted. I am apprehensive to suggest this may be greater than 5+, and that something would occur within your allotted time. But if I was a resident of Los Angeles, I think I would be checking my Christmas tree was firmly attached to its base after reading this !!
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