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115 ptslesterOctober 7, 2020 at 4:47 pm #9621
The last 5+ event to occur prior to this post, was an M 5.4 in the South Shetland Islands at 13:56:43 UTC. It was sunrise at this time on coordinates 118’35’W – 38’50’N. These coordinates relate to “Walker River reservation”, approx 65 km’s NNW of Mina, Nevada. At 13:57 UTC today, the ACE satellite recorded a moderately significant aspect change in the magnetic data !
These times are predominantly aimed at previous correlations in the 118’W range, but they also correspond to sunrise in Bakersfield and Ventura, California !
Score: 0115 ptslesterOctober 7, 2020 at 10:24 am #9620On 7th October at 06:35 UTC, an eruption occurred from Mt Etna volcano in Sicily, Italy. At “12 hours” earlier 18:35 UTC 6th October, it was moonset in Berkley, San Francisco Bay Area.
Small contributions, that may eventually build a bigger picture !
Score: 0115 ptslesterOctober 6, 2020 at 2:10 pm #9617https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=908912
M 4.9 Sulawesi … 6th October
Continuing this forecast for 5 days from 14:10 UTC October 6
Thank you
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterOctober 5, 2020 at 8:00 pm #9613https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=908128
M 5.7 New Britain P.N.G. … 3rd October
Continuing this forecast for 5 days from 20:00 UTC October 5
Thank you
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterOctober 4, 2020 at 11:09 pm #9610Ephemeral points…
On 24th September between times 03:30 UTC – 03:57 UTC, the moon was geocentric on the sunset threshold for “First Quarter” moon phase, and remained at this position for the duration of this period. At 03:30 UTC, the ATE threshold was located on San Francisco.
On 1st October, it was Full Moon at 16:31 UTC. Earlier at 02:00 UTC, it was both sunset and moonrise on coordinates 124’36’W – 40’20’N Offshore Petrolia, California.
Volcanic correlation…
1st Oct 07:28 UTC – Moonrise on Mt Ebeko Volcano
1st Oct 07:28:27 UTC – Moon located on longitude 118’30’W
Score: 0115 ptslesterOctober 3, 2020 at 11:01 pm #9608Volcanic correlation…
4th Oct 19:41 UTC – Sunrise on Mt Ebeko Volcano – Sun located on longitude 118’08’W
5th Oct 19:42 UTC – Sunrise on Mt Ebeko Volcano – Sun located on longitude 118’27’W
etc etc
Mt Ebeko Volcano erupted at 04:50 UTC and 20:09 UTC 3rd October… combined eruptions correlate to 26’58’W – 56’20’S South Sandwich Islands !
Score: 0115 ptslesterOctober 3, 2020 at 5:30 pm #9605Seismic correlations…
3rd Oct 13:22:47 UTC – M 5.3 Eastern Greenland on longitude 29’46’W
1st Oct 13:48:36 UTC – Sun located on longitude 29’46’W
1st Oct 13:49 UTC – Sunrise on coordinates 118’30’W – 34’20’N Santa Clarita, Los Angeles
3rd Oct 16:30:10 UTC – M 5.3 New Britain P.N.G. … 150’03’E – 7’10’S
2nd Oct 19:44 UTC – Sunrise on 150’03’E – 7’10’S – Sun located on longitude 118’44’W
3rd Oct 19:43 UTC – Sunrise on 150’03’E – 7’10’S – Sun located on longitude 118’33’W
Score: 0115 ptslesterOctober 3, 2020 at 2:00 pm #9603Seismic correlations…
3rd Oct 12:26:32 UTC – M 5.1 Kyushu, Japan = ATB threshold located on Los Angeles
3rd Oct 09:31:35 UTC – M 5.5 Izu Islands, Japan on longitude 140’53’E
3rd Oct 02:25 UTC – Moonrise in Los Angeles
3rd Oct 02:25:28 UTC – Sun located on longitude 140’53’E
Preliminary calculation based on 118’30’W – 34’20’N Santa Clarita
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterOctober 2, 2020 at 8:47 pm #9600Hey Mark,
My apologies for being a little out spoken yesterday. My wife has been ill (unrelated to virus) and we have been suffering pandemic related cabin fever… things start laying heavy on your mind, if you know what I mean. Its not my place to question the decisions of others, and I didn’t want you to be discouraged by my comments. I know you don’t follow my method, but by way of apology I ran a short T sequence on San Francisco… as follows.
On 30th Sept at 03:19 UTC, the ATE threshold (Astronomical Twilight Ends) was located on San Francisco, and it was moonset on Mt Etna volcano in Sicily. On 1st October at 06:15 UTC, Mt Etna volcano erupted (somewhere I’m familiar with LOL). Volcanic correlations may contribute influential elements!
On 30th Sept at 12:39 UTC, the ATB threshold (Begins) was located on San Francisco, and the moon was located on longitude 156’00’E… Mt Ebeko volcano in the Northern Kuril Islands resides on this longitude.
On 30th Sept at 19:31:49 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 115’31’W (SoCal Swarm longitude !) and the moon was located on longitude 55’42’E… Mt Piton De La Fournaise volcano resides on this longitude. On 29th September, the volcanic observatory on Reunion Island reported that an eruption of Mt Piton De La Fournaise, could be expected within a matter of hours. Perhaps contributing an influential element related to the Southern California Swarm ! On 30th September, the first member of this swarm occurred as an M 2.1 at 18:37:59 UTC. At this time, the ATB threshold was located on the Pre seismic M 6.0 New Britain P.N.G. epicentre of 1st Oct (somewhere else I’m familiar with LOL).
On 30th Sept at 19:35:23 UTC, an M 5.3 event occurred in Port-Vila, Vanuatu. At this time, it was sunrise on Mt Ebeko volcano… perhaps a triggering influence!
On 1st Oct at 01:50 UTC, it was sunset in San Francisco, and moonset on Mt Piton De La Fournaise volcano. At “12 hours” later 13:50 UTC, the SLT (Setting Lunar Threshold) was located on San Francisco, and the moon was located on longitude 148’42’E… the M 6.0 New Britain P.N.G event on this day at 10:34:48 UTC, occurred on longitude 148’39’E.
On 1st Oct at 20:01 UTC, it was moonset on the M 6.0 New Britain epicentre, and the sun was located on longitude 122’54’W !!
On 2nd Oct at 00:38 UTC, Mt Klyuchevskoy volcano in Kamchatka, erupted for the first time since 29th June. it is less than one degree of distance from Mt Shiveluch volcano, and I again forgot to predict both locations… similar to Mt Etna and Mt Stromboli being less than one degree apart. At “12 hours” earlier 12:38 UTC, the ATB threshold was located on San Francisco. Also at 00:38 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 167’49’E. Thirteen hours later at 13:16:26 UTC, an M 5.1 event occurred in Port-Vila, Vanuatu on longitude 167’39’E!
Lastly, on 2nd Oct at 14:43 UTC, it was moonset in San Francisco, and the RLT was located on Mt Piton De La fournaise volcano.
I am not always correct with my deliberations, but I think you should extend this forecast, because I believe there is still chance of a 4+ event occurring in the near future. And again, sorry for my words… but you know I’m right 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterOctober 1, 2020 at 11:31 pm #9593You could not claim success on this occasion because you have stipulated a magnitude range of 4.1 – 5.1 for your prediction. However, you could post for “consideration” and leave it to Ben’s discretion whether you warrant recognition. Changing the rules of prediction means it is unfair to other forecasters. Unless Becca and Tayrance want to claim all the 5’s they have missed. I would want the Twelve 4’s I have missed during the last 20 days to be considered. And Subcoder has enough hits for consideration to fill a book !
San Francisco is a very challenging region to predict, and I recognize that you have done well. But even for this region, a 4.5 is “news worthy”, but not a 3.4 and a couple of 2’s !!
Lester
Score: 0115 ptslesterOctober 1, 2020 at 12:00 pm #9586https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=907388
M 6.0 New Britain Region P.N.G. … 1st October
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterSeptember 30, 2020 at 10:39 am #9581https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=906880
M 5.1 Taiwan… 30th September
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterSeptember 28, 2020 at 10:00 pm #9576https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=904407
M 4.2 Kodiak Island… 21st September
Continuing this forecast for 10 days from 22:00 UTC September 28
Thank you
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterSeptember 25, 2020 at 10:53 am #9555https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=905435
M 5.1 South Sandwich Islands, 25th September
Score: 0115 pts -
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