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115 pts115 pts115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterJune 23, 2020 at 5:36 pm #9061
https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=870434
M 7.4 Oaxaca, Mexico – 240 km’s East of my forecast coordinates… but failed on magnitude !
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterJune 23, 2020 at 1:00 am #905722nd June 21:40 UTC – Significant aspect change in ACE MAG data. RLT located on Mt Sakurajima volcano in Kyushu, Japan… Moon located on longitude 122’46’W !
Continuing this forecast for 5 days from 01:00 UTC June 22
Includes possible eruptive / explosive event from Mt Sakurajima volcano, within 48 hours of stated date / time. Last reported activity was 02:19 UTC 10th June.
Thank you
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterJune 21, 2020 at 4:58 pm #9045Hey JEC,
Yesterday, I was working on the current Iceland events, and reworking my 12th May forecast for Hawaii. Then I notice today, you have already covered both locations lol. Pointless doubling up on two different locations, and though this is not your scene… thought I would leave the following trivia with you !
The last significant swarm in the Hawaiian Islands region, occurred on 11th – 12th May… figures have been calculated from 20th June, back to the stated dates. The following table indicates start / finish times of seismic activity, within a 4 day period of said dates.
10th May … 00:57:22 UTC – 22:20:39 UTC = 8 x 2+ events
11th May … 06:27:13 UTC – 23:57:55 UTC = 35 x 2+ events
12th May … 00:00:17 UTC – 20:35:06 UTC = 70 x 2+ events
13th May … 01:36:38 UTC – 23:30:18 UTC = 20 x 2= eventsThe table shows that on 11th – 12th May, activity was unbroken as the times indicate… this swarm had a total of 105 members. The preceding day 10th May and following day 13th May, both displayed periods of 5 hours plus without any activity. The first swarm member was an M 2.0 at 06:27:13 UTC 11th May… the ATE threshold (Astronomical Twilight Ends) was located on coordinates 177’49’W – 33’16’S at this time, pre seismic M 7.4 Kermadec Islands epicentre of 18th June. The last swarm member was an M 2.1 at 20:35:06 UTC 12th May… it was sunrise on coordinates 128’15’E – 28’55’N at this time, pre seismic M 6.6 Naze, Japan epicentre of 13th June.
On 19th June at 19:09:08 UTC, an M 3.5 event occurred North of Iceland… the is was the first member of a continuing swarm in this region. At “12 hours” earlier 07:09:08 UTC, it was Moonrise on coordinates 145’06’E – 18’55’N, post seismic M 6.2 Mariana Islands epicentre of 13th June.
On 20th June at 15:05:10 UTC, an M 5.4 event occurred North of Iceland. On 19th June at 15:05:10 UTC, it was Moonset on coordinates 40’41’E – 39’25’N, post seismic M 5.9 Eastern Turkey epicentre of 14th June.
On 20th June at 19:26:23 UTC, an M 5.7 event occurred North of Iceland. On 19th June at 19:26:23 UTC, it was moonrise on coordinates 128’15’E – 28’55’N, post seismic M 6.6 Naze, Japan epicentre of 13th June.
On 21st June at 01:42 UTC, it was Moonrise on coordinates 18’22’W – 66’28’N, post seismic M 5.4 North of Iceland epicentre… and the RLT (Rising Lunar Threshold) was located on the post seismic M 5.9 Eastern Turkey epicentre, as stated above. Eight minutes later at 01:48:49 UTC, an M 3.6 event occurred ENE of Pahala, Hawaii… it was sunrise on the post seismic M 5.9 eastern Turkey epicentre at this time. Also on this day at 04:52 UTC, it was sunset on the post seismic M 7.4 kermadec Islands epicentre… and Moonset on coordinates 155’12’W – 18’45’N, South of Pahala, Hawaii. The coordinates are an approximation of the 11th – 12th May swarm epicentres !
All times, dates and coordinates can be confirmed online !
Off Topic – I got a successful hit in Greece last year, because a friend living there informed me that many snakes had exited the long grass, and people had to stay inside their homes. Jumping fish in China is just as significant as any Techy magnetic data !
My method favours Hawaii over Iceland… but good luck with both attempts !
Score: 0115 ptslesterJune 20, 2020 at 10:58 pm #9039I look forward to see if your analysis achieves a positive result. However, if a hit does occur, it may also result in a conflict of interest !
The correlating data I used to determine this location, occurred prior to 13th June !
The coordinates of this forecast correlate to more substantial locations in Indonesia (as per my method)… so I am thinking “swarm” in Baja, main event in Indonesia !
Score: 0115 ptslesterJune 20, 2020 at 10:23 pm #9038Hmmm yes, I agree… same reason why I posted a high mag prediction for Hokkaido !!
my concern is with the recent lack of volcano activity, particularly with to mainland Japan and the Kamchatka region. According to http://www.volcanodiscovery.com , the last volcanic eruption occurred at 02:20 UTC 12th June… this was from Mt klyuchevskoy volcano in Kamchatka. Prior to this, the last volcanic activity in mainland Japan, was an explosive event from Mt Sakurajima volcano in Kyushu… this occurred on 10th June at 02:19 UTC. the last report issued by volcano discovery with reference to mainland Japan, was on 10th June at 12:15 UTC… this related to volcanic ash emissions from Mt Aso volcano in Kyushu.
I originally considered the possibility that these events from Mt Klyuchevskoy and Mt Sakurajima, may have correlated to the M 6.2 Northern Mariana Islands event of 13th June. On 10th June at 02:19 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 145’07’E… on 12th June at 02:20 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 144’59’E. The M 6.2 Mariana event occurred on longitude 145’06’E, therefore, it was solar noon on a pre seismic anomaly on both counts. However, it has now been 7 days since the Mariana’s event, and pre event activity has not returned to these regions. It suggests they may be being inhibited by a pre seismic build up of some kind !
I have a strong feeling Japan is going to get a big hit, but actual location is still open to speculation. I chose Hokkaido because it fits with my M 7.4 Kermadec’s analysis in the “chat room”. On 5th June at 18:53 UTC, the SLT was located on the pre seismic M 7.4 Kermadec Islands epicentre of 18th June… the ATB threshold was located on the pre seismic M 6.6 Naze, Japan epicentre of 13th June. And I have recently discovered it was also moonset in Kushiro Canyon, Hokkaido at this time. On 21st June between times 06:41:56 UTC – 06:44:35 UTC, New Moon occurs, and this is accompanied by an annular solar eclipse. At “12 hours” earlier 18:43 UTC 20th June, it was sunrise in Kushiro Canyon, Hokkaido !
You get kudos from me on this occasion, because you made a significant observation… though, it was a few hours behind the old timer LOL. But as I have described here, there are other less obvious events occurring that may relate to the same region. Your seismic wave started on 13th June, my correlation trail started on 5th June. At 19:26:22 UTC 20th June, an M 5.7 event occurred North of Iceland. The last sunrise and sunset to occur on this epicentre was at 01:36 UTC – 01:05 UTC respectively on “5th June”. It is now in permanent daylight for Northern hemisphere summer since this date… interesting !!
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterJune 8, 2020 at 12:36 am #9008As of 00:00 UTC 8th June, the last 2.5+ event posted by USGS with respect to Hawaii, was on 4th June. An M 2.7 event occurred on this day at 08:07:36 UTC Southeast of Pahala. EMSC has posted on several events during this period, but according to their record, only one 2+ event occurred on 7th June… One !
Minus “12 hours” from 08:07:36 UTC 4th June, equates to 20:07:36 UTC 3rd June. At this time, the sun was located on longitude 122’20’W… the ATE threshold was located on Mt Etna volcano in Sicily… and it was sunrise on Mt Aso volcano in Kyushu, Japan.
At 08:09 UTC 4th June, it was moonrise on the pre seismic M 6.4 Tobelo, Indonesia epicentre… which occurred 40 minutes later !!
Score: 0115 ptslesterJune 7, 2020 at 9:32 pm #9006https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=865821
With reference to my San Francisco forecast of April 16. I stated on 6th June that eruptive and explosive volcanic activity, between 2nd – 6th June was solely down to one volcano… Mt Sakurajima volcano in Kyushu, Japan. This solitary action was broken at 03:00 UTC 7th June, by an eruption from Mt Aso volcano in Kyushu, Japan on coordinates 131’05’E – 32’53’N.
On 7th June at 20:06:38 UTC, it was Sunrise on coordinates 131’05’E – 32’53’N !
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterJune 7, 2020 at 2:43 pm #8998Trivia…
On 29th May, a small seismic swarm occurred in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming. According to EMSC, a total of nine 2+ events occurred between 09:15:07 UTC – 11:37:46 UTC. The first swarm member was an M 2.1 event at 09:15:07 UTC, if you deduct “12 hours” this equates to 21:15:07 UTC 28th May. At this time, it was sunrise on coordinates 128’14’E – 2’55’N, location of the M 6.4 Tobelo, Indonesia epicentre of 4th June !
Score: 0115 ptslesterJune 6, 2020 at 7:40 pm #8997An interesting observation…
With reference to my Mt Sakurajima volcano table above (post; 27th May). Between 2nd – 6th June (post time) Mt Sakurajima volcano erupted and exploded a total of 10 times during this period. What makes this interesting is that according to http://www.volcanodiscovery.com , this is the “only” volcano to have be erupting and exploding during this period !
These events have been solitary since Mt Cleveland volcano erupted in the Aleutian Islands at 06:32 UTC 2nd June. As per the table mentioned above, sunrise on Mt Sakurajima volcano for 6th June, occurs at 20:12 UTC… the sun is located on longitude 123’17’W at this time. On 12 June, sunrise on Mt Sakurajima volcano remains the same at 20:12 UTC, and the sun will start occupying the 122’W longitude range !
Score: 0115 ptslesterJune 6, 2020 at 6:10 pm #8996Hey Mark,
I was working on analysing the M 6.4 Tobelo, Indonesia event of 4th June, and discovered it crossed paths with the M 5.5 SoCal event of the same day. I formulated a scenario as per my method, but I have been trying to understand your reasoning for this event. From the elemental analysis you have supplied, and If I am understanding this correctly, one possible scenario is that a seismic wave (shockwave) was produced from the M 5.2 Izu Islands event of 24th May. It travelled East across the Pacific, presumably within the mantle, and then came across a barrier of unknown origin, below the inland crustal region of Southern California… thereby triggered the event 10 days later. I have to admit, I have trouble accepting theories that I am unable to see related data or testable scenarios, but it doesn’t mean this is not a plausible theory. As I have mentioned on several occasions, any theory is plausible until an “actual” is found. My calculations indicate this wave would have to travel approximately 9,000 km’s or 5,600 miles, during a period of 240 hours (10 days), at 37.5 KPH or 23.3 MPH. I have noted an M 5.6 event occurred off the coast of Hokkaido on 30th May, at a depth of 94 km’s (EMSC). Does this mean that there is probability that the US West coast will incur further influence, on or around 9th June ?
I am just a sky captain, and don’t utilise the inner workings of the earth in my determinations. But I am intrigued because you really do post informative and passionate theory (edge of the seat stuff, if it was a movie script 🙂 ). The fact that you didn’t see this event coming is no determent to your current forecast, as no body else saw it coming either… not even Counselor (lol). But part of learning to forecast an earthquake, is to analyse possible scenarios after the fact, and try to incorporate any new developments into future attempts.
My Scenario…
On 4th June at 01:32:10 UTC, an M 5.5 event occurred in Southern California on coordinates 117’25’W – 35’36’N. Several hours later at 08:49:38 UTC, an M 6.4 event occurred in Tobelo, Indonesia on coordinates 128’14’E – 2’55’N. Upon reviewing the Tobelo epicentre T sequence (threshold history), I noted the following correlations…
On 24th May at 10:54 UTC, the ATB threshold (Astronomical Twilight Begins) was located on the pre seismic M 5.5 SoCal epicentre… and it was moonset on the pre seismic M 6.4 Tobelo epicentre. This was also the day that an M 5.2 event occurred in the Izu Islands region, Japan !
On 24th May at 12:38 UTC, it was sunrise on the pre seismic M 5.5 SoCal epicentre… and the RLT (Rising lunar Threshold) was located on coordinates 68’25’W – 23’17’S, location of the pre seismic M 6.8 Antofagasta, Chile epicentre of 3rd June.
On 28th May at 02:58 UTC, it was sunset on the pre seismic M 5.5 SoCal epicentre… and the SLT (Setting Lunar threshold) was located on coordinates 70’39’W – 15’16’S, location of the pre seismic M 6.1 Southern Peru epicentre of 31st May.
On 31st May and 1st June at 10:49 UTC, the ATB threshold was located on the pre seismic M 5.5 SoCal epicentre… and the ATE threshold (Astronomical Twilight Ends) was located on the pre seismic M 6.4 Tobelo epicentre. However, on 31st may at 10:49:26 UTC, the moon was located on longitude 128’14’E… this correlation included the moon on the epicentre longitude !
From my perspective, this triple correlation on 31st May, was key to instigating both these stated events. And the fact that they both occurred within hours of each other on the same day, also endorses my belief that this was the primary trigger period. The main focus here is the moon on the same longitude of a pre seismic anomaly, at the same time it is occupied by the ATE threshold. And the opposite threshold is located on a pre seismic anomaly in Southern California. Sounds like a natural occurrence, but how often does this kind of alignment occur, in respect of these two locations ?
As stated above, the ATB / ATE thresholds correlate to the SoCal and Tobelo epicentres on 31st May and 1st June at 10:49 UTC, as the sun heads North for summer solstice. On 11th – 12th July at 10:56 UTC, this correlation occurs again as the sun heads South for winter solstice. These correlations happen at these times every year, but how often does the moon occupy these longitudes at these times. I ran a search between years 1900 – 2100, allowing for a 0.5 degree margin east / west of longitude. The search showed apart from 31st May 2020 it only occurs again at 10:56 UTC Saturday 11th July 2076… the moon will be located on longitude 128’14’E at this time !
I too did not see these events coming, but I always try to find reason after the fact. My reasoning can be tested using http://www.timeanddate.com , and conformation of times to coordinates can be found using http://www.sunrisesunsetmap.com . It is a theoretical scenario like yours, but your theory can only be endorsed by results. Did a seismic wave from Japan cause an M 5.5 in SoCal ?… there is no way to prove it did or didn’t. Did an ATB / ATE correlation with the moon cause both the SoCal and Tobelo events ?… no way to prove or disprove this either. The only true answer will be when we discover the actual trigger source, too the second of time that these seismic events occur !
If you wish to collaborate, you need to do it with someone familiar with the differing aspects of your methodology… and preferably someone more “down to earth” than me 🙂
What’s the story with Hokkaido ?
Score: 0115 ptslesterJune 6, 2020 at 2:36 pm #8994Reactivating this forecast for 5 days from 15:00 UTC June 6… minus Mt Stromboli Volcano.
Seismic correlations combined with ACE data during 5th – 6th June, have been correlating with the US West coast. The solar / lunar thresholds have literally been skimming along the California coastline, starting at the Channel Islands and exiting the coast at San Francisco. The data does not indicate a specific location… only the California coastline as a whole !
Thank you
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterJune 4, 2020 at 3:54 pm #8989Trivia…
On 29th May at 04:30 UTC (12:30 pm local East java), a gas explosion occurred from Mt Ijen volcano in East Java. Unfortunately, this resulted in the death of a sulphur miner working next to the caldron lake. At “12 hours” earlier 16:30 UTC 28th May, the sun was located on longitude 68’10’W. This longitude is the Solar Noon (high noon) threshold limit to longitude 68’25’W. The M 6.8 Antofagasta, Chile event of 3rd June, occurred on longitude 68’25’W… all depends on weather the event time was reported accurately “to the minute” !
The last report relating to Mt Ijen volcano was posted 8th October 2015 !
Score: 0115 ptslesterJune 4, 2020 at 1:58 pm #8988On 3rd June I noted a Moderate 2+ Swarm was in progress in Banda Aceh, North Sumatra… totalling 20 events between 22:27:34 UTC 3rd Jun – 05:11:17 UTC 4th June. First swarm member was an M 4.2 at 22:27:34 UTC, at “12 hours” earlier 10:27:34 UTC, the RLT was located in Nepal on my stated forecast coordinates. Prior to this event occurring, at 22:06 UTC the ATB threshold (Astronomical Twilight Begins) was located on Banda Aceh… it was sunrise in the Flores Sea on my stated Forecast coordinates… and the SLT was located on my forecast coordinates in Nepal.
On 4th June at 01:32:11 UTC, an M 5.5 event occurred in Southern California… the moon was located on longitude 47’07’W at this time. My Scotia Sea forecast states longitude 47’10’W !
On 4th June at 08:49:39 UTC, an M 6.4 event occurred in Tobelo, Indonesia on coordinates 128’14’E – 2’55’N. At “12 hours” earlier 20:49:39 UTC 3rd June, the ATB threshold was located in the Flores Sea on my stated forecast coordinates. Prior to this event occurring, at 07:38 UTC Mt Sakurajima volcano exploded in Kyushu, Japan. At “12 hours” earlier 19:38 UTC 3rd June, the SLT was located on coordinates 128’14’E – 2’55’N !
On 4th June at 11:21:52 UTC, an M 5.1 event occurred in Port Vila, Vanuatu. At “12 hours” earlier 23:21:52 UTC 3rd June, it was sunrise in Banda Aceh, Northern Sumatra !
Score: 0115 ptslesterJune 3, 2020 at 6:15 pm #8982On 3rd June at 15:54:04 UTC, an M 5.7 event occurred in the Bali Sea, North of Labuan, Lombok Island, on coordinates 116’53’E – 7’00’S. Prior to this at 14:11:18 UTC, the moon was located on longitude 116’53’E… and it was moonset on Mt Cleveland volcano in Aleutian Islands ,Alaska.
On 31st May at 05:09:35 UTC, an M 6.1 event occurred WNW of Lampa, Southern Peru on coordinates 70’39’W – 15’16’S. Sunset at this epicentre between 22nd May – 11th June, occurs at 22:19 UTC. Sunrise at the M 5.7 Bali Sea epicentre between 3rd – 7th June occurs at 22:19 UTC. There is a 3 mile threshold difference on 2nd June, for sunrise to occur here at 22:19 UTC on this day. Epicentre coordinates are only as reliable as the service being provided by USGS !!
Deducting “12 hours” from 05:09:35 UTC 31st may, equates to 17:09:35 UTC 30th May. At this time, it was sunset off the coast of Antalya, Western turkey, on my stated forecast coordinates… and the RLT was located South of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, on my stated forecast coordinates.
Between 3rd – 7th June at 22:19 UTC, the sun transits from longitude 155’10’W to 154’59’W… i.e. Solar Noon (high noon) on Big Island, Hawaii.
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