Forum Replies Created
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115 ptslesterMarch 25, 2020 at 3:45 pm #6918
Hey Brian… you got this nailed down to a “good” forecast now. I have to say with honesty though, “epiphanies” would not rate highly with seismic reasoning. But if you did get a hit in Fiji, the golden rule of science is “everything stays on the table, until a credible solution is found”… even epiphanies 🙂
You didn’t say weather weed is medicinal or pleasure, but if it keeps you focused… then I say “why not” !
Tried it once in my youth, at a party next door. A friend told me the next day, I had been sat on the floor most of the evening, having an intellectual conversation with my neighbours dog !… kept showing his teeth at me for weeks after !!
Save your data my friend… just wishing you luck again !
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterMarch 25, 2020 at 2:22 pm #6916Much appreciated… thanks Fred !
Heads up… 7.5 Kuril Islands event has increased the odds of “significant” seismic activity occurring (6 – 7) in Western US region, during the next 30 – 40 days… so watch your data sets for influential changes. Potential is focused on Parkfield or the Nevada region where Counselor is currently predicting. He may be a veteran of CA hits… but he also has a habit of being a month premature with his forecasts 🙂
Thanks again !
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterMarch 24, 2020 at 8:34 pm #6906Hello Canyonrat, I read your intro with interest, and your profession sounds intriguing and a worthy aspect of your trade. I also commend you for having “noble” reason for posting a forecast here today. It is good to see that you are no stranger to the art of prediction, and I for one will be following your methodology with interest.
I am particularly impresses with your seismic game plan, and can appreciate how much time you must have contributed to combine the relevant correlations. I too have been monitoring recent seismic activity in the US, but my particular method indicates it could be the forbearer of instigating activity in the Iran-Iraq border region. Yes I know, crazy idea, but I have had a little success too !
We are all here in the spirit of Comradery, with many different theories and idea’s. But despite these differences, we all have one end goal in mind, and that is to find a way to warn the people… and save lives !
I’m glad you have come onboard because you seem to know your stuff, therefore, I wish you luck and hope it works for you.
Oh! yes… welcome to the group 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterMarch 24, 2020 at 3:01 pm #6901Hello Basireid… and welcome to the group. For some of us like myself who are in lock down in the UK at the moment, Penticton, British Colombia sounds like a nice, environmentally open place to live !!. Don’t worry about grammar, can make it out okay, and be nice to have someone on this site that would make as many mistakes as I do… 🙂
Fiji is a good choice of location to start, I had a couple of attempts here recently with no result. But I’m sure it has potential, and just a question of timing before someone gets it right. Perfect margin of error for this region, and 4 – 6 days is okay, but, although postings are not too formal here, its best to have a definite start and finish date to save any confusion. Also an idea to add a magnitude range, which I don’t think you have done here. Its usually up to individual choice what range to select, but for a region like Fiji, 5.5 – 6.8 would be a good proposal because it does have frequent high mag history… a mid 5’s hit would get you notoriety, and for high 6’s, its party time 🙂
You asked about Earthquake data, I assume you can access EQ event listings, but in case not, you can get seismic / volcanic listings on the following sites…
http://www.earthquake.usgs.gov
http://www.emsc-csem.org
http://www.hisz.rsoe.hu
http://www.volcanodiscovery.comEarthquake data for formulating a forecast, all depends on which method or theory you wish to employ ?. Ben has a lot of tools and helpful tutorials on this site, but if your interest is planetary alignments, tides, or other solar / lunar influences… let us know, and I’m sure someone here could point you in the right direction.
You sound like a Moon fan too me 🙂 … hope this helps !
Score: 0115 ptslesterMarch 23, 2020 at 12:40 pm #6899Determining magnitude range is the hardest part of any prediction… and to be honest, it is mostly a game of chance. The only real tool we have to help with this aspect is regional history. Predicting 6+ in locations like the Philippines, Papua New Guinea or Vanuatu etc, is never a wasted effort, because the frequency of high mag events in these regions puts the odds of success in your favour. West coast US does experience high mag events, but they are infrequent and notoriously difficult to get the timing right… thus lowering the odds. Long periods of quiet that get broken by a 4+ in San Francisco or LA for instance becomes big news, and sometimes just as significant as hitting a 6+ in P.N.G. In my opinion, being in the right place within the time you posted, is as greater achievement as correctly predicting magnitude. Therefore, you missed the mark in Petrolia, but still deserve to give yourself a pat on the back for being in the right place… at the right time!
I posted a crazy 5.5+ Mother’s Day prediction yesterday for Northern Kuril Islands, and a 4.3 occurred here this morning (my time). I missed the magnitude mark by a long shot, but at least it put a smile on my mothers face… 🙂
Keep trying… even with failed attempts, you always learn something new !
Score: 0115 ptslesterMarch 21, 2020 at 1:11 pm #6891Yes, all okay here too thank you.
Been monitoring global events, wondering if things could get worse… then suddenly found myself trapped in Isolation with my mother-in-law 🙁
Assuming you are in a similar situation, with unexpected time on your hands… be nice to see you back in the game for a short while !
Seismic conundrums are good for mental stimulus 🙂
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterMarch 14, 2020 at 12:36 pm #6871The USGS determined this event as 6.3, but I believe you deserve kudos (benefit of a doubt) for posting within 0.2 mag of actual… covering the first 6+ epicentre since 23rd Feb… and doing so before your computer had time to cool down… 🙂
Well done Becca…
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