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115 ptslesterOctober 13, 2019 at 12:26 am #6505
Brought forward from Mt Etna forecast October 10 11:38 pm…
My own equipment recorded a significant anomaly today, commencing and terminating at 14:56 UTC – 16:30 UTC respectively. No correlations determined for the former time, but 16:30 UTC correlated to; sunset on Mt Etna volcano Sicily, Solar noon on Mt Ubinas volcano Peru, and moonset on Mt Ebeko volcano Kamchatka.
The 7th Oct 05:01 UTC report (Mt Etna forecast) of solar noon on Mt Ubinas is incorrect. Apologies, to many maths can sometimes spoil the soup !!
Thank you
Score: 0115 ptslesterOctober 11, 2019 at 3:27 pm #6502Mt Etna volcano Erupted prior to 04:50 UTC today (11th)… http://www.volcanodiscovery.com
Thank you
Score: 0115 ptslesterOctober 10, 2019 at 11:38 pm #6500On 7th October 05:01 UTC, an explosive event occurred from Mt Sakurajima volcano, Kyushu, Japan. Sunrise occurred at this time at Mt Etna and Mt Stromboli volcanos, Sicily, Italy. On 8th October 16:31 UTC, a further explosive event occurred from Mt Sakurajima volcano… it was sunset on Mt Stromboli volcano, Italy, and solar noon at Mt Ubinas volcano, Southern Peru.
On 9th October, an M 5.1 event occurred in the Samoa Islands Region. Moonset occurred on this epicentre, on this day at 14:47 UTC… at this same time, it was moonrise on Mt Etna volcano. Today (10th) an M 5.2 has occurred in the Southern Mid-Atlantic. Moonset occurred on this epicentre at 05:03 UTC… it was sunrise on Mt Etna and Mt Stromboli volcanos at this time. The ATE (astronomical twilight ends) was located on this Mid-Atlantic epicentre today at 20:51 UTC. The moon was located on longitude 15’13’E at this time… Mt Stromboli volcano resides on longitude 15’12’E.
My own equipment recorded a significant anomaly today, commencing and terminating at 14:56 UTC – 16:30 UTC respectively. No correlations determined for the former time, but 16:30 UTC correlated to: Sunset on Mt Etna Sicily, Solar Noon on Mt Ubinas Peru, and Moonset on Mt Ebeko Kamchatka. The last eruptive event from Mt Ebeko volcano occurred at 19:12 UTC today.
In light of the data, I am including a possible eruptive event from Mt Stromboli volcano, as a second option to this forecast.
Continuing this forecast for 5 days from 00:01 UTC October 11
Thank you
Score: 0115 ptslesterOctober 8, 2019 at 10:55 pm #6497Activating forecast…
Location: Bali Island, Indonesia … 115’45’E – 8’20’S
Magnitude: 5.0 – 6.3
Margin: 300 Radial Kilometres
Period: From 23:00 UTC October 8, for 10 days
Included with this forecast: possible volcanic activity from Mt Agung volcano !
Thank you
Score: 0115 ptslesterOctober 3, 2019 at 11:28 am #6495Hey Fred, was no big deal. I invited contributions, and thought I would see what I could do with yours. Not something I normally take the trouble to do anymore, because it is very labour intensive. And nobody ever verifies what I post anyway because again it is labour intensive… so I was just playing with your numbers.
The human race (as you put it) is not as adventurous or inquisitive as we once were, so I will simply say: There’s life Jim… but not as we used to know it… 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterOctober 2, 2019 at 5:34 pm #6492Not sure if there is an explanation why all these events occurred south of the equator, but I ran a T sequence on each epicentre, and found some interesting time correlations. Running a T sequence involves assessing weather different elemental solar / lunar contacts (sunrise / sunset / moonrise / moonset etc) correlate to other post seismic or volcanic locations… from the subject epicentre “on the day” it occurred. The results are as follows…
1st Oct 03:56:06 UTC – M 5.9 Southern East Pacific Rise. At 11:22 UTC, the ATB was located on the M 5.9 SEPR epicentre… at 11:23 UTC, the ATE was located on Mt Agung volcano. At 05:23 UTC, it was moonset on the SEPR epicentre, and the ATE was located on Mauna Loa, Big Island Hawaii.
1st Oct 05:16:38 UTC – M 5.3 North Island, New Zealand. At 06:13 UTC, it was sunset on the New Zealand epicentre, and moonset on Mauna Loa, Big Island Hawaii. If you refer to my Mt Etna forecast, you will see that “12 hours” later at 18:13 UTC, moonset and the ATE were located on Mt Etna volcano… and the RLT was located on Mauna Loa, Hawaii. At 17:46 UTC, it was sunrise on the New Zealand epicentre, and the ATB was located on Mt Ebeko volcano in Kamchatka.
1st Oct 19:57:10 UTC – M 5.5 Macquarie Island. Several correlations have been included in my Mt Etna forecast, relating to this epicentre… so the following are the ones I did not include. At 18:51 UTC, it was sunrise on the Macquarie Island epicentre, and sunset on the Island of Tenerife… location of the Island wide power outage on 29th September. At 19:58 UTC (50 seconds after occurrence), it was moonrise on the New Zealand epicentre, and the sun was located on longitude 122’05’W. The M 5.9 Southern East Pacific Ridge event occurred on longitude 122’07’W (USGS), and therefore solar noon on this epicentre “within seconds” of the subject event.
2nd Oct Macquarie Island continued… At 09:53 UTC today, the ATE was located on the Macquarie Island epicentre, and it was sunrise on the island of Trinidad & Tobago.
1st Oct 22:25:08 UTC – M 5.2 Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge. At 06:24 UTC, it was sunrise on the Mid -Atlantic epicentre, and the moon was located on longitude 115’51’E… Mt Agung volcano resides on 115’30’E. At 12:32 UTC, it was solar noon on the Mid-Atlantic epicentre, and the RLT was located on the island of Trinidad & Tobago. At 18:40 UTC, it was sunset on the Mid-Atlantic epicentre, and the moon was located on longitude 61’33’W Trinidad & Tobago.
Volcano reports…
The VAAC Tokyo reported on another eruption of Mt Ebeko volcano, Kamchatka occurring at 04:08 UTC today (2nd). The sun was located on longitude 115’23’E at this time… Mt Agung volcano resides on 115’30’E, and therefore solar noon at this volcano.
The VAAC Tokyo reported that Mt Sakurajima volcano, Kyushu, Japan exploded today at 15:55 UTC. The sun was located on longitude 61’24’W at this time… the island of Trinidad & Tobago resides on longitude 61’24’W, and therefore solar noon on this island at this event time.
I found no correlations with the M 5.2 Broken Ridge, Indian Ocean event. If I can’t find a correlation… then it must have been a rogue quake 🙂
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterOctober 1, 2019 at 9:06 pm #6487Thanks Fred…
My equipment recorded an anomaly yesterday (30th) at 01:45 UTC. The sun was located on longitude 151’18’E New Britain Region P.N.G., and the moon was located on longitude 170’15’E Vanuatu at this time. I already had P.N.G covered up to 21:00 UTC today, and so renewed my Vanuatu forecast with one eye open and a half finished cup of morning coffee 🙂
At 19:35 UTC yesterday evening (my time) Mt Ulawun Volcano erupted in New Britain P.N.G…. as this volcano resides on longitude 151’19’E, it is a fair bet that this was the source of my anomaly !!
Still some seismic time left here… so thanks again for your support.
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterSeptember 29, 2019 at 10:08 pm #6483On 27th September, an Island wide power outage occurred in Trinidad & Tobago, as reported on the RSOE alert site. RSOE has reported today (29th) on an Island wide power outage occurring on the island of Tenerife in the Canary Islands. Correlating analysis is as follows…
24th Sept 05:36 UTC – The RLT was located on Trinidad & Tobago, and the ATB was located on the Island of Tenerife.
24th Sept 18:45 UTC – The sun was located on longitude 103’15’W, and the SLT was located on Trinidad & Tobago… the opposite longitude to 103’15’W calculates as 76’45’E Mandothi, West of New Delhi, India.28th Sept 06:27 UTC – The moon was located on longitude 76’48’E (Mandothi), and moonrise occurred on the Island of Tenerife.
28th Sept 12:52 UTC – The moon was located on longitude 16’26’W (Tenerife), and the SLT was located on Mandothi.Just playing with the numbers !
Continuing this forecast for 10 days from 00:01 UTC September 30
Thank you
Score: 0115 ptslesterSeptember 29, 2019 at 12:52 pm #6481An anomaly has been recorded today (29th) in the ACE Phi data between 11:30 UTC – 11:34 UTC. At the latter time, it was moonset on Mt Anak Krakatau Volcano. If this anomaly is viewed in the 6 hour window option, one could imagine the land masses of Java and Sumatra either side of the anomaly, and signal loss within the waters of the Sunda Strait… wacky stuff 🙂
Continuing this forecast for 5 days from 13:00 UTC September 29
Thank you
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterSeptember 27, 2019 at 12:40 pm #6468On Tuesday 24th Sept, I posted in my Iran-Iraq forecast an ACE aspect change occurring at 12:03 UTC. This coincided with the ATE (astronomical twilight end) being located on Mt Anak Krakatau Volcano in Indonesia. Today (27th) a more significant ACE aspect change has occurred at 04:59 UTC. The sun was located on longitude 105’33’E at this time… Mt Anak Krakatau resides on longitude 105’25’E, and therefore it was solar noon at this volcano. Data can be confirmed in the ACE 24 hour window…
Insufficient data to warrant renewal of this forecast yet… but contributions are welcome !
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterSeptember 25, 2019 at 5:46 pm #6459I have recorded another significant aspect change, on the two individual systems mentioned previously. Commencing 23:23 UTC 23rd Sept, and terminating at 03:35 UTC 25th Sept. Calibration check has shown a 40+ second discrepancy, which has now been corrected. Focus of this recording has again correlated with Northern India. For those using T & D application modelling, the math is as follows…
17/9 12:56 UTC “SS”… 17/9 14:58 UTC “MR”… 23/9 23:23 UTC “ATB”… 25/9 03:35 UTC “CM” = 76’45’E – 28’40’N Mandothi, West of New Delhi
Thank you
Score: 0115 ptslesterSeptember 24, 2019 at 3:30 pm #6455I believe that in some cases, particularly those that eventually climax with a significant event, that the data we make determinations from is comparable to lighting a long fuse… rather than a short 7 day period fuse. My own experience has shown me that data we perceive to have a short expiry period, can sometimes relate to one lunation before culmination of an event. This is one reason why I have tried to stagger my forecast time periods for certain locations. Very difficult to cover one lunation (29.5 days av) when you are only allocated 20 days max.
As example the current New Moon lunation started 08:06 UTC 30th August, and culminates 14:52 UTC 28th September… totalling 29 days 6 hours 46 minutes. Now you can determine for yourself weather this is “crackpot” stuff, or a valid scenario worth considering with future forecast attempts. But if I take your “titled” posted time and date for this forecast of 25th August 23:15 UTC, and go forward to the M 6.0 Puerto Rico event at 03:24 UTC 24th September… this totals 29 days 4 hours 9 minutes !!
Very ironic and totally coincidental on your part, but I just wanted to make the point that I thought you deserved some kudos for making this attempt in this region. M 6.0 events are very rare here, and as you do not post forecasts as often as some do here ( 🙂 ) I thought this effort deserved a mention… even thought (officially) you didn’t get it.
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