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115 ptslesterJanuary 9, 2018 at 2:42 pm #3574
Thank you my friend… it is nice to share disappointment with someone who also understands the frustration that accompany’s this subject !
I have been looking through Ben’s forecasting rules, to try and determine when you are allowed to re-forecast again in the same area, after your initial 20 day forecast has expired. All I could find was the following “a successful hit with a forecast longer than 20 days will not be considered for review”. There is a 7 day wait between forecasts if you are going for the prize, but I am no wiser when it relates to a standard forecast !
This seismic quiet period is becoming very frustrating… I have started falling asleep on my keyboard again 🙂
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterJanuary 7, 2018 at 5:44 pm #3564Chris… I recorded a significant aspect change at 13:50 UTC today, the same “time contact was recorded in ACE data yesterday (ref above). It gives two options, Solar Noon on the South Sandwich Islands or Dawn on the Hayward fault near San Francisco, Hayward is 120 km’s North of Hollister… rather than post Hollister with a margin, I placed us at the potential epicentre.
Other contacts spurned me on to cash in on my collection of 22:16 UTC British Colombia Canada events 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 7, 2018 at 3:27 pm #3560Hers’ something interesting… according to EMSC records, no earthquakes occurred in the 07:00 – 08:00 UTC range on the 4th Jan. At 06:20 UTC, there was a 4.4 in Honshu, Japan, the next one was a 4.0 in Durango, Mexico at 09:32 UTC… a period of 2 hours 12 minutes!. If you input 09:32 UTC 4th Jan in your map, and flick between this and the 07:38 UTC 5th Jan New Ireland event… they combine as Dawn / Sunrise on 70.949’W – 36.983’S Las Ovejas, Argentina !!
On 4th Jan, 06:20 UTC and 09:32 UTC also combine as Dawn / Sunrise on 81.450’W – 48.385’S Off the coast of Los Largos, Southern Chile… however, these co-ordinates are “not” on the fault line !
A point to note… my own data shows just East of Honiara, Solomon’s as the likely location, the quake event times favour San Christobal Island or the trench… either way, it will be South Solomon’s !
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterJanuary 7, 2018 at 1:07 pm #3557Hey Chris,
I am afraid our deadline has elapsed without a result, I know this combo works ( you have seen it once!) but I believe the lack of solar energy is putting a hold on our efforts. Some of the combo’s have hit low mag targets, so I think it is worth further attempts… not all was lost though, I got a 5.5 hit on Myanmar!.
Good call on the Mariana’s, I’m sorry it was only a 5.0 but at least you got the right area… besides, it is a better result than my 3.8 Santa Barbara 🙂 I noticed a 5.7 occurred in Nikol’skoye (my forecast here expired 23rd Dec 🙁 ) but this morning UTC, EMSC down graded it to a 5.2 yet it remains 5.7 with USGS.
My Solomon’s forecast expires at 01:29 UTC 8th January, if I had to “confidently” chose from all my forecasts posted since 19th Dec, Honiara Solomon’s would be the one I would go with !. At the time and date stated, I will have used my 20 day allowance, you might want to consider taking this on… it would be a shame for this opportunity to be missed. I work with combo’s, a 5.1 occurred today in El Salvador like I said it would… input the event time in your map and see where the Dusk threshold lies !!
My own equipment recorded a significant contact today at 09:34 UTC, longitude of the moon at this time was 70.349’W, and it was Sunrise on 70.949’W – 36.983’S Las Ovejas, I am confident something is in this region… when to post is the problem though !!
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 6, 2018 at 9:29 pm #3552Chris… the 19:09 UTC window has been and gone without an event occurring. However the SIS data started breaking up at 19:05 UTC, and a disturbance in the MAG Phi data started at 19:02 UTC, and terminated at 19:40 UTC. At 19:09 UTC, the moon was on 138.783’E – 6.583’N, when the disturbance terminated, it was Dawn on these very same co-ordinates !… hope now rests on a 6+ on one of your locations, or in the time we have left.
We are use to bad weather where I live, on occasions when the power is down I usually make Soup on a camping stove… but on this occasion I had run out of gas 🙁 I also have neighbours so we tend to watch out for each other… we are just hoping we don’t get a backlash from the current US East coast temperatures. I noticed on the news it had been snowing in Florida for the first time in 3 decades… does it ever snow where you live ?
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 6, 2018 at 12:06 am #3547Last contact before ACE went of occurred at 22:48 UTC, combine this with the suns longitude of 26.133’W at 13:50 UTC = Solar Noon / Sunset on 26.133’W – 57.812’S Saunders Island, South Sandwich Islands !
Tromso magnetometer data showed an aspect change at 21:45 UTC, longitude of the moon at this time was 89.250’E… opposite longitude to this = 90.750’W (Guatemala City !!)
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 5, 2018 at 9:23 pm #3546A structure has been recorded in the EPAMp data, beginning at 17:17 UTC and terminating at 19:02 UTC. At 17:17 UTC, the longitude of the moon was 153.383’E, a close match to the longitude of the 4.5 New Ireland Region event early UTC today. At 19:02 UTC, it was Sunrise in Honiara, Solomon Islands… and the depression you see in the centre of the structure occurred at 18:08 UTC, Solar Noon in Guatemala City occurs at this time !
No solar Noon contacts were recorded for Hayward and Santa Barbara, next opportunity is Sunset/Dusk… unfortunately, if the pattern continues, ACE will be off by then !
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterJanuary 5, 2018 at 4:00 pm #3544Two significant contacts has occurred in the MAG Phi data at 13:38 UTC and 13:50 UTC. I have nothing concrete for 13:38 UTC, apart from the fact that it is Dawn in Santa Barbara, Los Angeles and Dusk in Tajikistan. However at 13:50 UTC, it is Dawn in Hayward, 18 km’s South of Berkeley, San Francisco, the sun is on longitude 26.133’W, so it is Solar Noon on most of the South Sandwich Islands… and the opposite longitude to 26.133’W = 153.867’E New Ireland Region P.N.G. … Solar Noon in Santa Barbara and Berkeley occurs today at 20:05 UTC and 20:15 UTC respectively, watch for the signs!
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 5, 2018 at 3:01 pm #3543Hey Chris,
You may notice I posted the B&T forecast with a start time of 12:00 UTC, I did this so that the 24 hour period also covers the “moon on the night/Dawn threshold” on the 7th. If I am right that a seismic change will begin this weekend, another added combo in the same time frame might produce a result… you can’t beat a confident man 🙂
I have been watching the Turks and Caicos region since the 6.0 Ecuador event on 3rd December, after this event occurred, I noted the angle of the terminator showed several slight misses on Port-Au-Prince, but always landed true on Great Inagua Island. Your screen shots have given encouragement that my analysis may be correct… thank you for that.
Also today, a 4.5 occurred at 07:38 UTC in New Ireland Region P.N.G. … approx 60 km’s South of my combo co-ordinates. If you input this time on your map, you will also see that it is Sunset in Honiara, South Solomon’s, and Dawn on 70.949’W – 36.983’S Las Ovejas, Argentina… to the minute !!. I think we should keep a serious eye on this location, for further consideration towards a future B&T forecast.
How is the fire situation there now ? I am not seeing any new reports on the BBC news channel. My power was off for a while again yesterday, strong winds have caused a lot of isolated damage here… 1 degree centigrade outside, and I had to endure a cold lunch 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 4, 2018 at 10:58 pm #3538Sorry Chris… my wording may have been a little unclear. In a recent post, I mentioned how it would be interesting to see if an earthquake in our Hollister area, would be the next notable event anywhere on the US West coast. According to the “now 935 felt responses” on the EMSC site regarding the 4.4 Berkeley, CA, I conclude this to be the next notable event I speak of 🙂
A couple of other points I found related to Guatemala concern its T sequence. Sunset in Guatemala City today occurs at 23:46 UTC, also at this time it is Dusk on 73.230’W – 20.580’N Great Inagua Island, Turks and Caicos Islands… and Sunrise on 95.630’E – 5.260’N Banda Aceh, Northern Sumatra. You might recognise these locations as being two of my current forecasts, you know better than most that I’m pretty good at finding the right track, I just have trouble with the stops!. If you have found the right stop in Guatemala, and our train comes in on time on the 6th… we can both retire 🙂
Second point… Solar Noon in Guatemala City occurred today at 18:08 UTC, at this time it was also Sunrise on Erromango Basin, Vanuatu… I’m sure this location is daring us to bag it !!
I found nothing else today that gave reasonable incentive to extend the Hollister forecast… but I will keep watching. My own equipment has been giving me a lot of incentive today regarding the Solomon Islands, I have a forecast in place there, but it expires on Sunday… I might be leaving my own “too early” footprint this time 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 4, 2018 at 12:20 pm #3535Chris… a 4.6 has just occurred 80 km’s North of Guatemala City, look at the longitude co-ordinates I posted above, and compare it to the USGS posted longitude!. I don’t think you should hold back on this one, I would suggest you post your “own” 7 day forecast for this location, and I will also include it in the 24 hour B&T forecast on the 6th… this dry run may be coming to an end !!
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 4, 2018 at 11:58 am #3534Chris…
Sunset on 122.242’W – 37.861’N Berkeley, San Francisco (4.4 epicentre) … 01:03 UTC 4/1
Dusk on 90.565’W – 14.580’N Las Charcas District, Guatemala City, Guatemala … 01:03 UTC 4/1Don’t be disillusioned… I believe you are on the right path with something here!
Our Hollister forecast expired at 01:30 UTC today (4th), I am working to see if we need to extend this again!
At the time of this post, 871 people are suggesting a 4.4 in San Francisco (near our area!) is the “next” notable event on the West Coast 🙂
More later…
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterJanuary 3, 2018 at 8:47 pm #3530Hey Chris… I think El Salvador pulled a “Doc and Marty” on us again 🙂 the location was determined by a combo that does not fit the picture until the 7th… so it was either a warning shot, or my post was impeccably timed !. There is one thing about this event, it does fit in with the same area as Guatemala and Oaxaca… and it seems to be warming up in this region with each passing day!
If I am reading your selection right, do you want me to forecast the following with a 300 km margin ? ; Guatemala City, Guatemala… Managua, Nicaragua… Mexico City, Mexico… let me know if I missed anywhere.
There have still been no 6+ events since 15th Dec, if you check solar / lunar positions at 02:20 UTC 8th Dec against 19:09 UTC 6th Jan, in relation to the terminator, there is very little difference. The combo on the 8th Dec (6.2 Kermadec) occurred whilst the sun was still heading South… It’s latitude at this time was 22.716’S. On the 6th at 19:09 UTC, it will be on 22.433’S, a difference of 0.283 degrees. However, 22.433’S is exactly 1 degree North of its most Southern latitude… I am hoping this fact combined with the night measurement I calculated, should work towards breaking this dry run we are having!
I don’t know if Hook’s assumption about your forecasts is right, but you do tend to leave a lot of “footprints” in seismic area’s that go off after you have moved on. In the past when I have been certain about a location, I have tried to delay forecasting for a few days. But it is the luck of the draw I’m afraid, don’t forecast it and you miss it, or forecast to early and you miss it, there is no easy solution!. However, if your forecasting history is anything to go by… I will be trying my luck on Macquarie Ridge around first week of February 🙂
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterJanuary 2, 2018 at 8:32 pm #3520Hey Chris… and a happy new year to you too 🙂
I have completed calculations aimed at a 6+ event occurring at 19:09 UTC, 6th January, here is the math…
On 6th Jan 19:09 UTC, the longitude of the sun will be 105.750’W… longitude of the moon will be 138.783’E
At this time, the length of night from Dusk till Dawn (03:19 UTC – 11:01 UTC) on the suns latitude of 22.383’S = 7 hours 42 minutes
7 hours 42 minutes of Earth’s rotation = 115.457 degrees
Measuring East from centre moon to centre sun; 138.783’E – 105.750’W = 115.457 degrees
………………………………………………………………………………..The geocentric position of the sun at this time will be 105.750’W – 22.383’S, this location relative to Earth places you approx 600 km’s Northeast of Easter Island in the East Pacific. The T sequence for this location on 6th Jan is as follows…
Dawn 11:01 UTC… Sunrise 12:26 UTC… Sunset 01:53 UTC… Dusk 03:19 UTC
The Geocentric position of the moon at this time will be 138.783’E – 6.583’N, this location relative to Earth places you approx 500 km’s East of Palau, Indonesia. The T sequence for this location on 6th Jan is as follows…
Dawn 19:44 UTC… Sunrise 20:59 UTC… Sunset 08:45 UTC… Dusk 10:00 UTC…
……………………………………………………………………………….At Sunset 01:53 UTC in the East Pacific, it is also Dusk on 70.949’W – 36.983’S Las Ovejas, Argentina !
At Sunset 08:45 UTC East of Palau, it is also Dusk on 169.283’E – 18.749’S Erromango Basin, Vanuatu… the moons longitude at this time is 70.500’W (Las Ovejas!).I tried multiple combinations with these times, but the only other feasible location I came up with was New Ireland Region P.N.G.
Combining Dawn 19:44 UTC East of Palau with Sunset 01:53 UTC East Pacific = Sunrise / Solar Noon on 153.166’E – 4.133’S New Ireland Region P.N.G. I further calculated the moons position when it is centred on the Dusk/ Night threshold… and found something interesting !
On 7th Jan at 10:50 UTC, the geocentric position of the moon is on 88.733’W – 3.650’N, this location relative to Earth places you approx 400 km’s Northeast of the Galapagos Islands. Also at this time, it is Dawn on the same stated co-ordinates above. Relating back to the Pacific / Palau times.. at Dusk 10:00 UTC East of Palau, the longitude of the moon is 88.600’W. If you combine these two stated moon longitudes with the Dawn time in the East Pacific of 11:01 UTC, they end up as Dawn on 88.600’W – 11.833’N Offshore El Salvador. Considering a 5.4 occurred Offshore Guatemala 6 days ago, and numerous 4’s have been occurring in Nicaragua and Oaxaca Mexico… it might be safe to assume this could be a viable target in the near future!
As this is the first Time forecast of the new year, I was thinking you might like to chose three possible locations, either from something you have seen here or locations your own method has suggested have potential. Remember, time of event is the main focus here, the rest is just taking pot shots at the planet for now… nothing serious, so have fun and pick some chess pieces 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 2, 2018 at 1:49 pm #3519Don’t mention it…. Ben has posted many tutorials on this site that could help you, and are worth checking out. Or if you have any other points you wish to cover, I’m sure HookEcho, Counselor Gimber or myself will be able to address them for you. I can appreciate at the moment you are here for the entertainment factor, but in the future if you wish to take this further, we are often discussing seismic strategies in the chat room… we rarely get anything right, but it’s the participating that counts !
I look forward to getting back to you on the 8th 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 2, 2018 at 11:59 am #3517Hi Signey,
I commend you for choosing some good area’s for your first forecast, Chile and Argentina often give a better than average chance of success. However, you don’t appear to have included a magnitude preference or time period… forgive me if I have overlooked these somewhere, I am old and tend to make a lot of mistakes 🙂
Magnitude is usually the preferred choice of the individual posting the forecast, but a good starting range would be M 5.5 to M 6.5. Most of the note worthy earthquakes occur within this band, unless of course you wish to try for the prize, in which case you would forecast 7+ or chose from the other options available on the prize page. Again, period of forecast time is individual choice, my preferred method is to forecast 7 days, if my chosen location has not produced a result in this time and still shows potential, I increase this period up to the 20 days maximum allowed… forecasting is easy once you get the hang of it !
I wish you luck, a happy new year… and welcome to the game 🙂
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterDecember 31, 2017 at 9:22 pm #3509Chris… 5.0 in the Chagos Archipeligo Region, this is one of yours too is it not ?. A 5.0 also occurred in Greece in the early UTC hours today… one of our three locations from the 28th Dec time attempt !
Done the math on another Combo, this one occurs 19:09 UTC on 6th January… believe it or not, the T sequence lands on Las Ovejas, Argentina and Erromango Basin, Vanuatu again !!
If your interested in trying on this one, I will post what I have tomorrow… there are other locations in this that I already appear to have forecasts on !
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