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115 pts115 ptslesterDecember 31, 2017 at 3:50 pm #3503
Hello Hook,
The last time you graced us with your presence, you ridiculed my method, set yourself a Five 5’s in 20 days challenge to prove your point, and then disappeared for 4 months… Why ?
We never clicked, but the science was here because you were here, Unfortunately my “method” is becoming less effective with solar minimum approaching, and I will not be here to continue by next solar maximum. What is “new under the sun here”… I am, there is no science here so I am amusing myself by attempting silly time forecasts. I once told you that I believed someone like you, with your talent would one day find an answer… I still believe that!
Thank you for “allowing me to speak”
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 30, 2017 at 12:32 pm #3500Hi Chris,
I’m sorry that we struck out on the 28th, I don’t think we are going to have much success hitting these locations until there is an increase in solar activity… it was good experience, but “boy” it sure was a long 24 hours 🙂
I think it was a good call on Hollister even though we have so far missed out again, Tres Pinos had multiple hits with 2.9’s and 3’s. It will be interesting to see if our chosen region plays host to the next notable event on the West Coast!
I got a 5.7 hit on P.N.G., but EMSC killed the moment for me… they first posted 6.2, and I though I had hit one of the last great quakes of 2017… posting in proclamations felt more like a formality than a success!
My MOT 1 forecasts have hit a 5.7, five 5’s and two 4.9’s, including two hits in Myanmar… I think my data works but again, lack of solar activity is drowning the effort!
I too look forward to more of these joint forays in the coming new year, it would also be nice if others participated as well… this site is in desperate need of some new “Yada” 🙂
My best wishes to you and your family for “New Year”
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterDecember 28, 2017 at 1:14 am #3489Chris… Have you noticed the belt of small magnitude earthquakes across the central US ?, they form a line on 37’N +/- 0.5 degrees. The sequence runs as Oklahoma 03:22 UTC… Colorado 13:00 UTC… Utah 22:00 UTC… Tres Pinos, CA 00:22 UTC 28/12. They are all on the same latitude as Hollister, but not only that… they all match the twilight borders !!. Input 00:56 UTC 28/12 in the T&D map, at this time it is Sunset in Hollister, compare the map against the USGS quake map… the central US quakes are on the twilight lines!
I was going to wait for your response, but I think I will forecast Hollister again anyway, and hope you see my reasoning for doing so!
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterDecember 27, 2017 at 7:38 pm #3486In my post of Dec 22 at 9:39 pm (on this page), I described how irregular high energy proton readings (SIS) were related to Erromango Basin, Vanuatu. The latest period of irregular high energy proton readings started in the early UTC hours of 25th Dec. At 13:40 UTC today (27th), the readings returned to normal levels again, this time the solar map shows no correlation to any current targets, but the moon map shows the luner terminator is on Erromango Basin, Vanuatu at this time… SIS is responding to both terminators !!
The moon map also shows the lunar terminator on the Ascension Island region, if you combine this with the 20:30 UTC combination above, it may show a potential solar / lunar X marks the spot!
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterDecember 27, 2017 at 5:48 pm #3484I was meaning to add… my own equipment recorded a major aspect change at 15:22 UTC today, at this time, it was Sunset 10km’s West of Podogora, Western Greece, which in my opinion places Greece as the favoured option. However, it leaves me with a Delmer because also at this time it was Sunrise in Hollister, California. I have shown previously that Hollister has a T connection with Tajikistan, and a 4.9 occurred here today. I am tempted to place Hollister on alert again for 7 days, but you will have to take it on faith that my data is correct… what do you think ?
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 27, 2017 at 5:16 pm #3483Chris… at the time of this post, no earthquakes of magnitude 6 or above have occurred in 12 days!… however I have been working a new combination which suggests this dry run may change as early as 20:30 UTC today (27th). This combination also surprised me as I already have a forecast on the two main players it relates too.
Here is the math…
At 20:30 UTC 27/12, the geocentric position of the moon will be 19.716’W – 4.933’N. This location relative to Earth places you 780 km’s West of the coast of Sierra Leone, in the Atlantic Ocean. Dusk at this location occurs today at 20:30 UTC… the centre of the moon is exactly on the Dusk terminator threshold. Also at this time, it is Dawn on the opposite threshold on 119.216’E – 7.849’S Flores Basin, Flores Sea. The opposite longitude to 19.716’W, is on 160.284’E, on this longitude is Honiara, Solomon Islands… good set up for a moon shot!
At 20:30 UTC 27/12, the geocentric position of the sun will be 127.923’W – 23.252’S. this location relative to Earth places you in the region of the Pitcairn Islands, South Pacific.
Dusk till Dawn at this location occurs at 04:48 UTC – 12:20 UTC respectivly
04:48 UTC – 12:20 UTC = 7 hours 32 minutes (length of night!)
7 hours 32 minutes = 112.861 degrees of Earth’s rotation
Measuring West from centre sun to the Flores Basin (127.923’W to 119.216’E) = 112.861 degrees !!At 20:30 UTC, it is also Dusk in the Ascension Islands and Prince Edward islands regions, and Dawn in Sulawesi, Southern Philippines (storm influence possible!) and Southern Honshu, Japan… a few possibilities, but will it produce a result ?
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterDecember 25, 2017 at 2:17 pm #3475Hey Chris,
My method works on the theory that earthquakes greater than 5+ have a build up period of several days or even weeks… the trick is to catch them early to see this build up occurring. However sometimes the ones you overlook can suddenly make themselves present hours before they actually occur. El Hoyo could easily be one of these, and therefore you did right by taking the opportunity to try for a hit. No bad intentions have been taken on my part, besides, my combination forecast suggests the next 6+ event will not occur until 28th Dec… and of course, I am always right 🙂
I ran a T sequence on the 5.4 Mid-Indian Ridge Quake at 12:02 UTC, Solar Noon here occurred at 07:04 UTC. At this time it was Dusk on 179.899’W – 7.000’N East of the Marshal Islands in the Pacific… this will be the moon’s position at 07:33 UTC 28th Dec !!
Here’s a Christmas puzzle… on this page, I mentioned a relationship between two small events in British Colombia, Canada and the 6.5 Java event… to recap; M 2.4 at 22:15:55 UTC 10th Dec / M 2.1 at 22:16:17 UTC 11th Dec = Sunrise 6.5 epicentre Java. Another one in British Colombia occurred yesterday (24th) at 22:16:39 UTC, this was also a low 2.1 magnitude event. The low magnitude would not attract any attention, and the same can be said for the time span between events. But the “time” that they occurred must have some relevance!. The sun has moved position since the 10th Dec, the terminator has changed angle so Sunrise is no longer on the Java epicentre, and the moon is on the opposite side of the Earth to it’s position on the 10th – 11th… so what is the common denominator ?. If another event occurs here at 22:16 UTC in the next couple of days I will have an answer!
There are strong winds blowing outside my house at the moment, so I may forecast the 28th attempt later today, for fear of loosing my power again. Hard to decide what could be worse, failing to post the time attempt, or my oven going off leaving my turkey half cooked 🙂
Hope you and your family have a great Christmas… Ho Ho Ho 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 23, 2017 at 6:43 pm #3468Chris… this is excellent work, it does seem to be advantageous for us in South America. It has now been 8 days since the last 6+ event occurred in Java, I believe the sun’s extended period on the same latitude may have altered the balance of normal seismic activity. During the hours of the 27th Dec, the moon will be transiting the Terminator belts, possibly absorbing some of this stored magnified energy as it does so. By 07:33 UTC 28th Dec, it will be within 90% of the dark zone… hopefully this will cause a shock to the system and produce a 6+ earthquake. I have seen a contact in ACE data today, related to Vanuatu, but nothing for Greece or Argentina… still early days though.
Today I hit a 4.5 Flores sea, and 4.6 in Myanmar, normally this would be a poor result but considering I used my own equipment instead of online data, I am quite pleased with the outcome.
Let me know if anything more occurs, I intend to post a forecast on 27th, “Bill” is definitely on board with this one 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 22, 2017 at 9:39 pm #3461Hey Chris… you are doing right by your family, that’s what Christmas is about. As you say, very little is occurring on the quake scene at the moment, it makes one feel somewhat disillusioned with every failed attempt. I know it is affecting me because I got exited at hitting a 4.9 in Panama 3 days ago… I mean seriously, what is that all about 🙂
Africa was not an obsession, it was determination based on your own high rated certainty that something was there, I got there as well remember, and I believe the area is still active, but again solar energy is not letting it out!. You may recall during summer, I seemed to have an obsession with 136’E Honshu Japan. This stemmed from observing major disruption in many online data feeds on 6th July at 11:52 UTC. This disruption continued for several days, and left me with a mental stamp. On 8th September, I discovered what this mental stamp related too!. Checking the map on 6th July 11:52 UTC, you can see it is Dusk on 136’E Honshu, but it is also Sunrise on 93.81’W Chiapas, Mexico… epicentre of the 8.1. I missed a major stop on my terminator train on that day for sure… I didn’t say “yippee Kaiyay” but the last part of Bruce’s quote was “very” verbal 🙂
I have been saying for sometime now that major earthquakes are triggered by combination… and there are many different combinations. The most prominent one I have discovered relates to the length of night at the sun’s latitude. I posted the math related to the 6.2 Kemadec event on the 8th using this combination. If you do the same math for 04:49:21 UTC 8th Sept (8.1 Chiapas), you would see the centres of sun and moon were exactly the same distance apart as the length of night at the sun’s latitude… I am unsure why this works, but 50% of the time it does!. I thought I would try this again because the sun is currently so quiet, and the next opportunity occurs at 07:33 UTC on 28th December. Using terminator combinations related to this time, I came up with the following locations as potential 6+ targets…
Podogora, Western Greece … 21.349’E – 38.833’N
Erromango Basin, Vanuatu … 169.283’E – 18.749’S
Las Ovejas, Argentina … 70.949’W – 36.983’SHere is the math…
On 13th Dec, high energy proton readings began to increase as post seismic response to a 6.5 occurring in the Bouvet Island Region. These readings remained high an unstable until 18:02 UTC 19th Dec, at which point stability was restored and the traces in ACE data resumed normal levels. At 18:02 UTC 19th Dec, it was Sunrise on Erromango Basin, Vanuatu!
On 15th Dec at 16:48:00 UTC, a 6.5 earthquake occurred in central Java, Indonesia… also at this time, it was Dusk in Podogora, Western Greece!
On 19th Dec at 22:26:16 UTC, the sun reached its lowest lateral position of the year at 23.433’S. It remains at this latitude until 10:13:46 UTC on 23 Dec… at this time, the longitude of the sun will be 26.349’E (a long period magnifying glass effect !!)
………………………………………………………………………..At 07:33 UTC on 28th Dec, the longitude of the sun will be 69.149’E… longitude of the moon will be 179.899’W
Measuring East from centre sun to centre moon = 112.949 degrees
112.949 degrees= 7 hours 32 minutes of Earth’s rotation
7 hours 32 minutes = the length of night from Dusk to Dawn on latitude 23.266’S… this is the latitude the sun occupies at this time!
…………………………………………………………………………..Determining locations with this equation is best observed using the T&D map…
At 07:33 UTC 28th Dec, the geocentric position of the moon will be 179.899’W – 7.000’N. these co-ordinates relative to Earth place you in the central Pacific Ocean, East of the Marshall Islands. Relevant T sequence times for this location on 28th Dec are; Dawn 16:56 UTC… Sunrise 18:11 UTC… Sunset 05:53 UTC… Solar Noon 00:02 UTC.
If you input the Dawn and Sunset times, you will see that they correspond to Dusk / Sunrise on Podogora, Western Greece. Combine this with Podogora’s correlation with the 6.5 Java event on the 15th, and you have one possible target!
By inputting just the Sunrise time, you will see that it is also Sunrise on Erromango Basin, Vanuatu. However the moon at this time is on longitude 26.333’E… this is 10 decimal points off the same longitude the sun occupied at 22:26:16 UTC on 19th Dec (above), when it reached its lowest lateral position. Combine this with the high energy proton data… and Vanuatu becomes a second possible target!
Pen-ultimately… input the speculated event time of 07:33 UTC, it shows it is Dawn in Las Ovejas on the chile-argentina border ( same latitude as Concepcion, Bio Bio). follow this by inputting Solar Noon at 00:02 UTC, it is now Sunset in Las Ovejas “and” the moon occupies the same longitude on 70.949’W!… making Las Ovejas a third possible target!
Lastly… On 28th Dec, Solar Noon in Las Ovejas occurs at 16:46 UTC, input this time and the map shows it is also Dawn on Erromango Basin, Vanuatu!. At the speculated event time of 07:33 UTC, the geocentric position of the sun is 69.149’E – 23.266’S… Solar Noon on Erromango Basin, Vanuatu occurs at 00:46 UTC, at this time it is also Sunrise on 69.149’E – 23.266’S (geocentric position of the sun!!).
………………………………………………………………………………………I have been trying to work on another possible target, but at present I have not succeed in securing a viable latitude…
On 15th Dec, when the 6.5 occurred in Java at 16:48 UTC, the longitude of the sun was 73.166’W. At the time the high energy proton data stabilised at 18:02 UTC 19th Dec, the moon occupied longitude 74.166’W… it is exactly 1 degree difference. It is not good enough for accuracy, but close enough to warrant attention. In the T sequence, it shows Dawn occurs at 16:56 UTC, longitude of the sun at this time is 73.540’W… another close match. I believe there is something on this longitude, but it could be anywhere from Haiti to Southern Chile… it remains as work in progress for now!
I don’t think I have overlooked anything, Vanuatu is probably the favoured choice. When I ran the T sequence on the 8th Dec moon location at 02:20 UTC, I got 2 terminator hits on the 6.2 Kermadec Islands epicentre… what I have compiled above is based on a T sequence assumption, with no guarantees!
I’ll finish by speculating a forecast for Christmas Day, who will have more fun playing with the new toys on Christmas morning in your house, Father or son ?, I think I will forecast Father… might be the last successful hit I get this year 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 21, 2017 at 4:47 pm #3457Hey Chris… I have been making calculations in preparation to try another time forecast on the 28th Dec… on this occasion I am going to make an official post. As I have mentioned before, I have had some success doing this in the past (8th Dec for instance!), but I have never been able to connect time to a location. I am not very good at reading the TEC data, so I was wondering if “Bill” would be interested in a real game of seismic chess, and help me find X marks the spot!. I have done a thorough job of running the numbers, and found 3 “very” potential locations to chose from… TEC data may confirm these over the next 7 days!
My nephew has bought me a Christmas movie on DVD, I was thinking more in the way of “Its a wonderful life” with James Stuart, or “miracle on 34th Street” with Richard attenborough… he got me “Die Hard” with Bruce Willis, its the thought that counts I guess 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 19, 2017 at 11:12 pm #3446A couple of interesting points…
A 6.5 occurred in the Bouvet Islands region on 13th Dec at 18:03 UTC, this was immediately followed by an aspect change in SIS high energy proton data. Today (19th), the data screen shows the SIS traces have returned to normal readings at 18:03 UTC !. The only place I found were the terminator angle does not change over this period, is the plain between Iceland and Jan Mayer Island… but this is not on the ridge !. It might not mean anything but the timing got my attention…
There are occasions when quake activity misses a UTC range… on 17th Dec, no events occurred in the 21:00 UTC Range. At 20:52 UTC, a 4.1 occurred in Taiwan, the next one was a 4.5 in Oaxaca, Mexico at 22:05 UTC. At 22:05 UTC, it was Sunset on 15.234’W – 58.410’S Bullard Fracture Zone… same co-ordinates we posted 2 weeks ago !. It doesn’t sound like a big deal, but I missed Java because I didn’t follow my instincts with a similar curiosity.
Posted in the recipe above 🙂 , I included a 2.4 British Colombia, Canada event at 22:15:55 UTC on 10th Dec. On the following day (11th), a 2.1 occurred in the same place at 22:16:17 UTC… a few seconds from being exactly 24 hours apart. On checking the maps, the only place the terminator remained the same was Sunrise on 108.15’E – 7.60’S, which as we now know is the epicentre of the 6.5 in Central Java. It is not the magnitude of correlated curiosities that matter, it is spotting irregular time periods, which lead us to a conclusion… a couple of minutes either way of 22:05 UTC, and Bullard Fracture Zone would not even be in the equation !!
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterDecember 19, 2017 at 7:01 pm #3444Hi Chris… apologies for my delay in responding, I believe seismic activity may increase over the next few days, so I have been busy working on my Christmas hit list 🙂
It is a shame we missed out on the 6.5 Java event… I first thought you had it because I recalled you forecast central Java, but I could not find it. If you recall, we were on that spot with moon terminator contacts about 5 weeks ago !
I appreciate the inclusion in your South Sandwich forecast… Hollister and Tajikistan are old news at the moment, but in the future if anything stirs, I will post as B & T because I regard them as unfinished business !
Sorry you missed out on 5.6 Southern East Pacific Rise… I have adapted to forecasting 7 straight days, if further data suggests an extension after this period, I add a further 13 days (20 days max) and forget about it. Each to their own, but if you adopted similar, I’m sure you would have more success, 20 days on East Pacific Rise and Central Java… and they would have been yours !
I am running my own experiment at the moment… my old machines are finally starting to wake up, so my MOT 1 forecasts are based on what the machines are telling me. If I have any success, it means I will be less reliant on ACE data… at the moment, they are suggesting Solomon’s #1 🙂
Are you looking forward to Christmas ?, I have my turkey, mince pies and mulled wine at the ready… I just need to chose a good Christmas movie to compliment the day 🙂 … any suggestions ?
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterDecember 12, 2017 at 5:58 pm #3416ha ha… fire, ice, horses… we sound like seismic cavalry in a “Beauty and the Beast” production 🙂
If you think back to the beginning of November, we both had a little success come our way. But currently I fear we are failing miserably because solar output is so low. As you mentioned earlier, we are still finding potential sites, but they are only producing 4’s or low 5’s. However, I have been noting irregular patterns in quake frequency as mentioned above, and the high energy proton data was “very” irregular for most of yesterday. The 5.9 in Iran today does give favour to potential opposite longitude activity in California… but I don’t particularly wish this, with Christmas coming and all !
Glad to hear you are home again… it might has caused “Santa” a few problems had you not been 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 11, 2017 at 10:15 pm #3412Hey Chris,
It is always fun to try something new, did you get the result you expected ?. When I analyse contacts in the data, I always find at least 4 possibilities… it is very tempting to forecast them all, but I would only be giving cause to the laws of probability if I did !
I was offline for 3 days, a snow storm took out my power and trapped me in my house… you are running from a fire and I am freezing to death 🙂 speaking of which, are you still an evacuee ?. When I got back online, I noted a 6.2 had occurred in the Kermadec Islands 10 minutes prior to my 02:20 UTC deadline, shame I didn’t make it an official time forecast attempt… it might have raised a few eyebrows !!
I have noticed some contacts related to Buru, Indonesia have occurred since I cooked up the combination above, I found some better correlations related to Alaska using the same method, and decided to forecast accordingly… here are the ingredients…
10/12 18:57:34 UTC – M 1.5 Northern Italy
10/12 22:15:55 UTC – M 2.4 British Colombia
11/12 17:29:12 UTC – M 5.6 Vanuatu
11/12 19:00:57 UTC – M 5.5 Tarapaca, ChileIf you figure the times correctly, you end up 25 km’s East of Wild Bay, Alaska (across the channel from Kodiak Island)
Sorry to here of your migraine issues, I think you need to hit two 6’s in four days again… that would take your mind of the pain for a while 🙂
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