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115 pts115 ptslesterNovember 25, 2017 at 12:16 pm #3267
Chris… what worries me about Port-Au-Prince is that I might actually be right!. Each mag 5 or above that occurs, I try to follow the trail. Most events take you in totally different directions, but some times you happen on the right contacts and follow them like a circuit board e.g. here are 3 times related to today, to try on your map; 09:52 UTC – on this map you can see Dawn is within the region of Haiti, but the reason this time is significant is because of the sun’s longitude of 28.76’E. This is the longitude of the two Western Turkey events, so in effect it is solar Noon here. At 11:07 UTC – you can see that it is Sunrise in Port-Au-Prince Bay, and over the last two weeks the angle of the terminator has shifted away from Ecuador, and remained on Port-Au-Prince… Finally at 03:48 UTC, the map here shows the Dawn Threshold transiting Greece. On the 22nd, a 4.4 was felt here by 43 people, yesterday (24th), a 4.6 occurred with 5 reports. This Dawn threshold at 03:48 UTC runs through both epicentres.
All these locations are connected by a 5.0 event that occurred in Sulawesi, Indonesia this morning (my time). If you check the times again, you will see it is Sunset 09:52 UTC… Dusk 11:07 UTC and Solar Noon 03:48 UTC on 119.965’E – 1.228’S 38km SSE of Palu, Indonesia.
A felt event like a 4.4 in Greece, doesn’t always mean a significant event is going to occur at this location, its just picking up the source from the other end of the line. In this case it may be Palu, because Indonesia is notorious for big events… and Haiti is on the same line !!
On the other hand, I got a 3.0 in Maule, Chile using the same method… so why do I bother 🙂
I appreciate the joint forecast in Japan… wasn’t my initial intention but I am pleased to be associated to someone like you 🙂
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterNovember 24, 2017 at 10:53 pm #3257Hey Chris… I am also enjoying how we each perceive a location as a viable target… like playing a game of seismic chess 🙂
I have to make this brief due to unannounced guests visiting 🙁 here’s a heads up… you see the 5.1 Western Turkey, input the event time of 21:50 UTC in your map. The Dawn threshold running through Eastern china is exactly on my Fangxian, China forecast. In the west, it is Sunset on Mona Passage, but coming back to Japan, the Sunrise threshold runs through South Coast Kyushu. I know it has serious potential and was going to predict there today, but my Friday quota is a bit maxed out at the moment 🙂 … it may be something that interests “you”.
This Turkey event like the last one, has a T connection to Hollister… I think we will be going back there sometime soon !!
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 pts115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterNovember 23, 2017 at 7:01 pm #32425.6 Ryukyu Islands…
The good news… Sunrise on this epicentre at 21:50 UTC, matches Dawn at 21:50 UTC in Fangxian, Hubie China… which means Fangxian is a Viable target!
Dusk on this epicentre at 09:48 UTC, matches Dawn in Port-Au-Prince Bay, Haiti, and Dawn in Guayaquila, Ecuador… Dawn in Quinto occurred at 09:44 UTC 🙂
The bad news… I missed it by 21 km’s with my forecast 🙁
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 23, 2017 at 6:21 pm #3241After rechecking the numbers… the data fits better with 73.270’W – 35.670’S Maule, Chile… approx 110 miles North of where I originally thought.
BTW – do you still have Prince Edward Island covered ?… been noting a lot of T sequence hits here during this week !
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 23, 2017 at 4:28 pm #3240I noted two significant contacts on the 18th – 20th Nov, in both cases the moon was on 175’E. I ran a T sequence on Cook Strait NZ, and found nothing that grabbed my attention… doesn’t mean there is nothing there though! There is the possibility this is West of Fiji (close to my forecast)… found nothing in the Aleutians!. I then ran a T sequence on Gibraltar and found the following…
Sunrise on 5.580’E – 35.900’N Strait of Gibraltar 07:08 UTC 23/11
Sunset on 7.0 Loyalty Islands epicentre 19/11 … 07:08 UTC 23/11
Dusk on 6.8 Tonga epicentre 4/11 ……………. 07:08 UTC 23/11
Dusk on 5.6 Tonga Region epicentre 14/11 …….. 07:08 UTC 23/11
Dusk on 6.0 Samoa Islands Region 20/11 ………. 07:08 UTC 23/11
Sunset on 5.5 Off E Coast of N Island, NZ ……. 07:08 UTC 23/11Still working on this, but the data seems to be suggestive that something is here in the Gibraltar Region !
Hollister is a tricky one… as I mentioned before, these episodes of small but constant activity can fool you. At the moment, it seems to have gone to sleep again, but the 5.0 Turkey event yesterday suggests otherwise!… Sunrise / Sunset in both locations occurred at 14:52 UTC (52 felts were recorded for the Turkey event). Lets play a bluff on this one… an aspect change occurred today at 13:12 UTC which matches Dawn in the Santa Barbra Region of LA. If an event occurs here in the next 24 hours (2.5+), it will be another sign that Hollister is still active… because they share the same Sunset. I have a couple of forecasts up the coast from here, so if your data is telling you something further North, I should go with your hunch and try an independent forecast. The quiet CA period combined with the proton anomaly, makes me believe Hollister is a footprint. Might be best to stay put, and renew the forecast when either of us has something new to offer!
Apologies for my dramatic brief time out, I believe I was just short of sleep. I don’t think I’m 100% yet because I missed that 5.1 Hubei Province, China by 74 miles… I’ll try and do better next time 🙂
Happy Thanks Giving to you and your family… and the rest of the guy’s here at Quake Watch…
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 22, 2017 at 10:35 pm #3233Chris… 5.0 44 miles North of Rhodes Basin, Western Turkey… I think I have stopped making mistakes now 🙂
Dusk on this epicentre occurred at 16:25 UTC… Longitude of the sun at this time was 69.183’W. The opposite to this is 110.816’E
On 110.816’E – 32.074’N Fangxian, Hubie Province, Eastern China, it was Sunset / Dusk at 09:37 UTC – 11:02 UTC respectively… same times as the proton spikes reported above !
When the event occurred at 20:22:54 UTC, it was Dusk on the 6.1 Ascension epicentre 11/11… and Solar Noon on the Mendocino Ridge, off the Coast of California !
Also, there is something very prominent on 175’E / 5’W… I haven’t nailed it yet, but I don’t think its NZ
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterNovember 22, 2017 at 2:57 pm #3228Two proton spikes have occurred at 09:37 UTC – 11:02 UTC… first = Sunrise Offshore Bio Bio, it is also Dusk at this time on 6.5 New Guinea epicentre 7/11 (significant association !). Second = Sunrise Ecuador / Haiti, or the combined times = Sunset / Dusk Eastern China.
Four names in the news yesterday including “Subc0der”… well done again Tayrance !
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 20, 2017 at 10:04 pm #3217Chris… I seem to be making a lot of mistakes today, I feel I have become a little disillusioned so I am taking some time out. I believe Kamchatka and Offshore Bio Bio have serious potential, so by all means forecast if and when you feel the time is right. I have also been watching Rhodes Basin, Western Turkey… bit of action near there in Cyprus today, and it has a definite terminator contact with Hollister, CA
Perhaps Subcoder can pitch in here… he’s got a good eye for this 😉
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 20, 2017 at 7:53 pm #3216The original contact time was 15:53 UTC, I deducted 8 minutes which made it 15:45 UTC. When I abruptly told you I had an approx contact time at 15:37 UTC… I had forgotten that I had already deducted 8 minutes when I was telling you. Dawn on the 6.0 Samoa epicentre occurred today at 15:45 UTC… that’s what happens when you are tired from staying up late to answer voting questions !!
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterNovember 20, 2017 at 4:34 pm #3210Chris,
Sometimes I end up speaking my mind with out thinking of future implications… got me into a lot of trouble in the past 🙂
There have been quite a few hits on Jakarta, but the problem is the terminator there, has a parallel connection to Halmahera, so the contacts could be related to this location… been waiting to see if anymore contacts occur!
Ecuador is a possibility, but I decided to stay on the train and get off at Haiti… they have been sharing the same Dawn / Sunrise threshold for the past week!
If Bill wishes to try a joint venture again, I have just the thing… I have sourced two significant times from different channels to what we use here, if you are happy with what we witnessed in Hollister then trust me on this! These times are 01:26 UTC and 05:48 UTC, the first time on your map indeed shows Dawn in the Mozambique region, but it also shows Dusk in Bio Bio, Chile which would be my preferred choice. The second time shows Sunrise in Italy, but my preferred choice here would be Sunset on the Kamchatka Peninsula… and it is also Sunset on the 6.8 Tonga epicentre from 4th Nov. If we combine these times like we did with the Moon and proton increase related to Hollister; the sun at 01:26 UTC is on longitude 154.899’E… at 05:48 UTC it is Sunset on 154.899’e – 50.240’N in the Luzhin Strait, Kamchatka Peninsula. There was also a Significant contact in the MAG data at 21:00 UTC on the 18th, I initially had this logged as Dawn on Java, but see where the Sunrise threshold is… and then see where the Moonlight terminator is at the same time!
I’ll get back to you later on this… I’ve just found something at approx 15:37 UTC related to Italy that disturbs me !!
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterNovember 20, 2017 at 12:37 pm #3207Hey Tayrance
I am really pleased that Ben decided in your favour… and I apologise for abstaining on this vote. Our association here has been long enough for you to know my decision was not directly aimed at you. I am just old fashioned, and have always tried to stick to the rules. Its like we have been playing football here for nine months abiding by these rules. And just as we have reached the Superbowl where the rules should be followed to the letter, they have an additional clause applied to them (rule of thumb!), and the crowd is asked which team they think should win !. I come from a world of attending seminars and arguing with scientists, so I sometimes have trouble adjusting to the entertainment aspect of this site. On the other side of the coin, I couldn’t think of anybody more worthy of being awarded this achievement (except me of course 🙂 ). I have seen you miss out so many times, and in a friendly way I have always considered you a worthy adversary to our forecasting attempts.
Please forgive my words if they have caused you offence, I posted them at 02:14 am… old age and 02:14 am UK time do not mix very well 🙂
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