Forum Replies Created
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115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterNovember 20, 2017 at 1:27 am #3197
Ben
You will have to decide this one without me… I believe in this case, Tayrance should win the contest purely on the basis that you felt the need to pose this question to us. Many here like me, live unspoken lives because of our interest in earthquakes, we are tucked away in lofts or back yard huts… and the only people who really know how we feel about this interest are here on this site. Earlier today, a fellow forecaster was throwing in the towel… I don’t know him from Adam, but I know what he is going through. To myself and others here, he is a quake buddy that needed some assurance, and we gave it because we have a silent bond to each other… especially the originals. I owe Tayrance nothing, but we have parlayed on occasion… I hope to continue parlaying with him in the future, so you will forgive me if decline to vote for or against a minimum magnitude limit. You set the rules, and everybody here has read them and followed them from the start… lower the limit and I think you are going to be out of pocket !!
There are only a few of us here… in effect you are asking colleagues to vote against each other. We are slowly starting to work together in different ways… be a shame to set this all back to how we were in February again !
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 19, 2017 at 10:09 pm #3184I’m glad you took some time out to play with your boy, missing a forecast now and then is no big deal… there will always be earthquakes. Had a change myself today, spent a couple of hours tidying leaves in my garden, then later fell asleep on my couch. I woke an hour later wondering why my cushion kept moving under my head, then realised I had fallen asleep on my cat… don’t get old because you might end up like me 🙂
The Loyalty quakes are an example of the down side to using the terminator method. Post seismic locations still give off energy readings via the terminator, the event has gone off so you tend to try and connect the readings to a parallel connection… only to be caught out later by the original source.
I think Subcoder will stay… just the other day I was conversing to Tayrance how frustration can get to you with this subject. Many’s the time that I have thrown a cup of coffee at my PC, it keeps going because I think it has gotten use to it… not to fond of decaf though 🙂 If your going to try and predict earthquakes, frustration and disappointment comes with the territory. There will always be a time when you quit, but when you have had time to cool down… you are back on the keys again !
Keep watching for that CA data, I keep seeing an occasional contact but nothing that has me on the edge of my seat like the other day. I found 4 contact times for the 5.8 Halmahera on 1st – 2nd Nov… 16 days before it happened. I find this in most cases, they look like they are going to blow, and then they go to sleep for a couple of weeks…
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 19, 2017 at 6:57 pm #3178After an absence of 2 months and 3 weeks, you post a 4 day alert and miss a 6.6 by 1 day.
You have always had your best fan and follower joining you with each attempt (your Mom).
And you are one of the originals… even missing a 6+ by one day, is a talent that will be dearly missed here !
Nobody screws up here more than me…
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 1115 pts115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterNovember 17, 2017 at 5:48 pm #3160At 17:09 UTC today, it was Sunrise on my Auckland forecast, also Sunrise on the 7th Nov 5.7 Fiji epicentre (the one you missed out on !) and Sunset on the co-ordinates South of Africa that I posted to you. If Auckland occurs anytime soon, it will mean an adjustment is warranted… it also means we keep a close eye on California and Turkey !
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 17, 2017 at 3:48 pm #3159If this was “my” forecast, I would be moving my alert zone “West” so it is closer to the fracture zone. When I checked the seismic history for this region, I found the closest “South of Africa” event to Prince Edward Island was a 5.8 May 19 2008 on 31.65’E – 47.66’S. From the other direction, closest Southwest Indian Ridge event was a 5.3 Sept 22 2005 on 43.14’E – 40.809’S. Any adjustment is a gamble, all one can do is determine from the data at hand weather it is worth the risk !
“Teddy” 🙂
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterNovember 16, 2017 at 10:01 pm #3151Ok if put something together here, hope you can follow this…
On the 8th Nov, an increase occurred in the proton data, terminating at 14:37 UTC, which as we have established is Sunrise in HOLLISTER, CA. It is also Dawn at this time on 140.600’W – 60.010’N 30 km’s WNW of Yakutat Bay, Yukon territories, Canada.
On 10th Nov, a 5.8 occurs on the West Chile Rise, Dawn on this epicentre occurred at 08:23 UTC. At this time, it was also Dusk on the 6.6 Loyalty Islands epicentre, and Sunset on the 6.5 New Guinea epicentre ( which suggests the former locations had a hand in triggering the quake!).
On the 12th Nov, a 7.3 occurs on the Iran-Iraq border, Sunrise here on this day occurred at 03:29 UTC, this time is also Dusk on the co-ordinates WNW of Yakutat Bay.
On 13th Nov, a 6.7 occurs in Costa Rica at 02:28:22 UTC, at this time it is Dusk in HOLLISTER, CA… and Dusk on the 5.8 West Chile Rise epicentre !. Solar Noon on the Costa Rica epicentre on this day occurred at 17:23 UTC, at this time it was also Sunrise on the co-ordinates WNW of Yakutat Bay !
Finally, a 5.6 occurred Today (16th) in the Solomon Islands at 14:50:04 UTC, Sunrise in HOLLISTER today occurred at 14:50 UTC !
It is a correlated triangulation, that ends up in the Hollister region… Iran-Iraq, Costa Rica and Hollister share commonality with the Yukon teritorries. Costa Rica, West Chile Rise and Hollister share commonality with each other. And New Guinea P.N.G. and the Loyalty Islands are likely to have influenced the West Chile Rise event. The last event in the Solomon’s gives a strong indication of pre seismic influence in California… Sunrise time in Hollister, and a quake occurs in Kirakira !!
I noticed 3 significant correlations in Agnone, Central Italy again whilst I was working this, if you see anything in your data related to this location, could you please let me know ?… I would dearly love to nail this one.
a 5.2 South of Panama at 16:20 UTC… in my margin but failed on magnitude again 🙁
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 16, 2017 at 6:13 pm #3149Chris… apologies for my delayed response, I became a little unwell yesterday… probably to many late nights 🙂
I was wrong about no significant correlations with Hollister… I found some good contacts, and hopefully post the details in a few hours when I have completed it.
No problem if you want me to check something out for you… I found the following related to “Prince Edward Island”…
1/11 6.6 Loyalty Islands, event time 02:23:57 UTC – Sunrise on 33.488’E – 47.652’S South of Africa … 02:23 UTC 1/11
1/11 6.6 Loyalty Islands, Dawn at 16:42 UTC – Sunset on ,,,,,,, – ,,,,,,, South of Africa … 16:42 UTC 1/11
3/11 5.6 Jalisco, Mexico, Solar Noon at 18:51 UTC – Dusk on ,,,,,,, – ,,,,,,, South of Africa … 18:51 UTC 1/11
7/11 6.5 New Guinea P.N.G., Solar Noon at 02:10 UTC – Sunrise on ,,,,,,, – ,,,,,,, South of Africa … 02:10 UTC 7/11
7/11 6.5 New Guinea P.N.G., Dusk at 09:31 UTC – Solar Noon on ,,,,,,, – ,,,,,,, South of Africa … 09:31 UTC 7/11
12/11 5.9 Honshu, Japan, Solar Noon at 02:05 UTC – Sunrise on ,,,,,,, – ,,,,,,, South of Africa … 02:05 UTC 12/11Going off these co-ordinates South of Africa, suggests this location is 345 km’s West of your Forecast line… you might want to add a belated margin if you think these times apply. If I am going to be Ted (Edward!), I don’t want you getting this one wrong 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 15, 2017 at 12:02 pm #3136Chris… you should remember that just because we are making a joint effort in CA, you are still going to have your own hunches and ideas. You should still follow these accordingly… if you think there is something in NZ etc, you should go for it. There will be occasion that circumstance will have us working together. By exchanging location ideas, abnormal pressure readings or unusual MAG data (as was the case here) will work out well for us. This is a lonely pursuit, not something you can easily talk to others about… so it is nice to have like minded company to tour the world with 🙂
If you wish to make reply to the Hollister forecast… be my guest, or perhaps you can extend its period when it runs out at 00:01 UTC Nov 22… assuming we haven’t got a hit by then !
Last night, I spent 2 hours pinning data to Bougainville, and decided I didn’t have enough to commit… disillusioned is not a strong enough word 🙁
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 15, 2017 at 12:04 am #3130I have nothing for LA… but the T sequence is interesting. Sunrise in Long Beach LA at 14:28 UTC = Sunset Ankara, Turkey !!… Sunset in Long Beach LA = Solar Noon on 164.330’E – 50.230’S Puysegur Trench, Auckland (my forecast !!). You can see how this can get very confusing, you are on the “right” train… but do you get off at Hollister, Los Angeles or Auckland ?
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 14, 2017 at 11:23 pm #3129If you check past records of 5+ earthquakes in California, most of them either precede or occur within 30 days of activity in Iran, like an opposite longitude affect. This also applies to Turkey, because Turkey shares the opposite terminator thresholds with California for most of the year. However, the 7.3 Iran was far West, so it doesn’t fit with the standard model… yet CA went quiet 24 hours before the 7.3 event occurred, and seems to be remaining so !
The California forecast is more of an opportunistic effort, there is very little solar data, and there are no T contacts with other previous 5.5+ events (no parallels or opposites). That’s why I remarked it could occur from a backlash with Auckland.
I now have 10 contacts listed between 6th Nov and today related to the region around Jakarta, Java. I think you covered this area last week… do you want to try a B & T on this one, and see if we can find anything new ?
BTW good hit on Anchorage… you are a man of “many 6’s” yet you sound happier getting this 2.8 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 14, 2017 at 9:36 pm #3124I didn’t see a definite sun / moon contact in any data… but in the last 24 hours, there have been five 2.5+ quakes South of Hollister, all in the same spot. There have been no other quakes anywhere else on the West coast again… its like something is suppressing the energy… the sea retreats before a tsunami occurs does it not!
I have done the deed, but if we get it wrong… you can be Bill 🙂
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterNovember 14, 2017 at 4:20 pm #3117Chris… there is a significant aspect change in the MAG data at 13:15 UTC, a spike has also appeared in EPAMe data at 14:47 UTC. Together, these match Dawn and Sunrise in the Hollister Region again ! I think there is enough active data connected to this region to warrant a forecast. I believe we have made a joint effort on this one, this is your homeland so you take lead when you are ready… if you hit the target, add me in the credits later 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 13, 2017 at 8:31 pm #3110Chris… are you seeing this 4.7, 16 miles South of Hollister ? I’ve been working this region today, the 8th Nov contact “is” hollister, other T contacts are minimal and mostly target Auckland. If anything substantial occurs in Auckland or Central Turkey (particularly the Ankara region), I believe the backlash is going to come here !!
In case you were wondering… Dusk on the 4.7 epicentre occurred at 02:28 UTC 🙂
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterNovember 13, 2017 at 1:21 am #3096The Peru-Bolivia border region seems favourable at the moment, it has a Dusk / Dawn T connection with those Tajikistan quakes on the 10th, it is also lined up with Salta, Argentina… and at Dusk today at OO:10 UTC, it was Solar Noon on the 4.5 Wellington NZ event. Also Panama is not far behind Peru with solar connections… and it is on the same terminator threshold. I was right about an uptick in the Japan region, been watching a couple of locations in Alaska for approx 3 weeks… I thought now might be a good time to forecast.
Retiring to bed now, a 7.3 will not compare to the wrath of my wife if she finds me on here again at this time 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 12, 2017 at 11:50 pm #30925.9 Honshu has just caught me out again, Dawn on the epicentre at 19:28 UTC = Hokkaido Dawn. Dusk on the epicentre at 08:42 UTC = Dusk Hokkaido and Sunset on my Ryukyu Islands forecast. Sunrise on the epicentre occurred today at 21:00 UTC… you might want to check this time against Java !!
Considering my last post, this might be interesting… if you take Dawn on the 7.3 Iran epicentre at 02:03 UTC, Solar Noon from the 5.9 Honshu at 02:03 UTC, and Sunset from the Iran epicentre at 13:55 UTC. They correlate as Sunrise and Dusk on 113.155’W – 27.610’N 15 km’s East of El Marasal, Baja California. If I triangulate this with the Hollister contact at 14:37 UTC on the 8th, the model also correlates with San Cristobal trench, Solomon’s and the Peru-Bolivia border region.
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